SOCIAL SCIENTISTS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD THEORY OF POLITICAL DECISION MAKING. THE AUTHOR, IN THIS ESSAY-REVIEW OF FOUR WORKS STUDYING STATESMANSHIP, FOREIGN RELATIONS, DIPLOMACY, AND AGGRESSION AND HISTORY, INVESTIGATES THE PROBLEM OF UNDERSTANDING DECISION MAKING. HE DISCUSSES IN DETAIL THE QUESTION: ARE BELIEFS, VALUES, AND CALCULATIONS AUTONOMOUS? HE SAYS CONCLUSIONS ARE EXPLAINED MOST BY BELIEFS.
Ausgehend von der realistischen Theorie der internationalen Beziehungen, nach der Staaten die Hauptakteure der internationalen Politik sind und das externe Umfeld für ihr Verhalten von größerer Bedeutung ist als ihre internen Entwicklungsbedingungen, wird der Zusammenhang zwischen Rüstungskontrolle und Krisenstabilität untersucht. Den historischen Bezugsrahmen bildet der Konflikt zwischen den USA und der UdSSR vor dem Hintergrund des nuklearstrategischen Sicherheitsdilemmas. Aus dieser historischen Erfahrung werden Perspektiven für die Rüstungskontrollpolitik in der Zeit nach dem Kalten Krieg entwickelt. Die Auflösung der bipolaren Ordnung wird demnach nicht zwangsläufig zu einem Verlust von Sicherheit in der Dritten Welt führen, aber die Gefahr von Kriegen zwischen Entwicklungsländern wird größer. Sicherheitsdilemmata und daraus resultierende Kriseninstabilität werden aber zugleich dazu führen, daß das Interesse an bilateralen bzw. regionalen Rüstungskontrollvereinbarungen wächst. Dazu können die Großmächte etwa durch Sicherheitsgarantien beitragen. (SWP-Hck)
PROSPECT THEORY OFFERS POWERFUL INSIGHTS AND PROPOSITIONS INTO POLITICAL DECISION-MAKING, ESPECIALLY IN INTERNATIONAL POLITICS. EVIDENCE INDICATES THAT STATESMENT ARE INDEED RISK-ACCEPTANT FOR LOSSES. THIS WOULD HELP EXPLAIN OBSERVED PATTERNS IN BARGAINING, DETERRENCE, THE ORGINS OF WARS, AS WELL AS SUGGESTING WHY STATES ARE LESS LIKELY TO BEHAVE AGGRESSIVELY WHEN DOING SO WOULD PRODUCE GAINS THAN WHEN SUCH BEHAVIOR MIGHT PREVENT LOSSES.
THIS ARTICLE DEALS WITH TWO GENERAL ARGUMENTS ABOUT HOW NUCLEAR WEAPONS MIGHT PRODUCE OR PREVENT WAR, BOTH BASED ON THEMES PRESENT IN PRE-NUCLEAR ERAS. THE FIRST DEBATE IS OVER WHETHER TRADITIONAL MILITARY POLICIES INCREASE OR DECREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF WAR, WHETHER A POLICY RELYING ON IMPLICIT OR EXPLICIT THREATS DETER OR PROVOKE. THE SECOND DEBATE CENTERS ON HOW NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARE BROUGHT INTO THE FRAMEWORK OF FORCE AND THREATS, AND HOW DETERRENCE CAN BE MADE MOST EFFECTIVE, THROUGH A POSTURE OF DETERRENCE BY DENIAL VERSUS DETERRENCE BY PUNISHMENT. INVOLVED IN THESE ARGUMENTS ARE DISPUTES OVER INTERNATIONAL POLITICS, THE NATURE AND INTENTIONS OF THE SOVIET UNION, AND THE CHANGES BROUGHT ABOUT BY NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
Batteries that extend performance beyond the intrinsic limits of Li-ion batteries are among the most important developments required to continue the revolution promised by electrochemical devices. Of these next-generation batteries, lithium sulfur (Li–S) chemistry is among the most commercially mature, with cells offering a substantial increase in gravimetric energy density, reduced costs and improved safety prospects. However, there remain outstanding issues to advance the commercial prospects of the technology and benefit from the economies of scale felt by Li-ion cells, including improving both the rate performance and longevity of cells. To address these challenges, the Faraday Institution, the UK's independent institute for electrochemical energy storage science and technology, launched the Lithium Sulfur Technology Accelerator (LiSTAR) programme in October 2019. This Roadmap, authored by researchers and partners of the LiSTAR programme, is intended to highlight the outstanding issues that must be addressed and provide an insight into the pathways towards solving them adopted by the LiSTAR consortium. In compiling this Roadmap we hope to aid the development of the wider Li–S research community, providing a guide for academia, industry, government and funding agencies in this important and rapidly developing research space.
Batteries that extend performance beyond the intrinsic limits of Li-ion batteries are among the most important developments required to continue the revolution promised by electrochemical devices. Of these next-generation batteries, lithium sulfur (Li–S) chemistry is among the most commercially mature, with cells offering a substantial increase in gravimetric energy density, reduced costs and improved safety prospects. However, there remain outstanding issues to advance the commercial prospects of the technology and benefit from the economies of scale felt by Li-ion cells, including improving both the rate performance and longevity of cells. To address these challenges, the Faraday Institution, the UK's independent institute for electrochemical energy storage science and technology, launched the Lithium Sulfur Technology Accelerator (LiSTAR) programme in October 2019. This Roadmap, authored by researchers and partners of the LiSTAR programme, is intended to highlight the outstanding issues that must be addressed and provide an insight into the pathways towards solving them adopted by the LiSTAR consortium. In compiling this Roadmap we hope to aid the development of the wider Li–S research community, providing a guide for academia, industry, government and funding agencies in this important and rapidly developing research space.
