International Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in China: A Time-Varying Bayesian Global SVAR Approach*
In: East Asian Economic Review Vol. 28 No. 1 (March 2024) pp. 95-140, https://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2024.28.1.432
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In: East Asian Economic Review Vol. 28 No. 1 (March 2024) pp. 95-140, https://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2024.28.1.432
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In: KIEP Research Paper, Apec Study Series 21-02
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In: East Asian Economic Review Vol. 22, No. 3 (September 2018) 371-400, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2018.22.3.348
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In: KIEP Research Paper. World Economy Brief 17-14
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In: KIEP Research Paper, Working Papers 16-10
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In: KIEP Research Paper, Working Paper(WP) 23-05
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In: The Canadian journal of economics: the journal of the Canadian Economics Association = Revue canadienne d'économique, Volume 55, Issue 4, p. 1862-1893
ISSN: 1540-5982
AbstractThis study investigates the effect of news and noise shocks of US monetary policy on economic fluctuations in emerging market economies. In the first part of our two‐step estimation method, the news and noise shocks of US monetary policy are estimated using dynamic structural vector autoregression identification. In the second step, the impact of the news and noise shocks on macro variables reflecting the business cycle (e.g., production, consumption, investment and trade balance) is examined using local projection. Our empirical results show no significant differences in the responses to both shocks at the early stage, when news and noise are not separable. However, when the monetary policy becomes known, emerging market economies enter a full‐scale recession with respect to a news shock of raised US interest rates. Meanwhile, emerging market economies enter an economic boom phase of the business cycle when the shock turns out to be noise. Fluctuations driven by noise are likely to incur greater costs than normal economic fluctuations because the former are out of sync with the fundamentals.
In: KIEP No. Policy Analyses 19-01
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In: KIEP No. Working Paper 20-01
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In: KIEP Research Paper, Working Paper(WP) 22-04
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In: KIEP Research Paper, World Economy Brief(WEB) 23-01
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In: KIEP Research Paper, 연구보고서(PA) 22-03
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In: KIEP Research Paper, World Economy Brief 18-09
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In: KIEP Research Paper. Policy Analyses 17-14
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In: KIEP Research Paper, Policy Analyses No. 16-16
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