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Since Charles Tilly made the comparison between state making and organized crime, it has often been assumed that illicit markets necessarily contain parallel, coercive governance structures: mafias. I argue that some illicit markets have mafias while others do not, and identify as the source of this variation the costliness of the use of force and the imperatives of territorial control. When the use of force is too costly and there is no need to control territory to conduct business, illicit entrepreneurs will not invest in the development of mafias or use violence to protect their property. I evaluate theories of both organized crime and new institutional economics to explain the relationship between the authority structures of the state and the authority structures of illicit markets. Because mafias and their use of violence can undermine state sovereignty and public order, understanding the origins of violent mafias can inform policy choices.

Historical explanations seek to identify the causes of outcomes in particular cases. Although social scientists commonly develop historical explanations, they lack criteria for distinguishing different types of causes and for evaluating the relative importance of alternative causes of the same outcome. This article first provides an inventory of the five types of causes that are normally used in historical explanations: (1) necessary but not sufficient, (2) sufficient but not necessary, (3) necessary and sufficient, (4) INUS, and (5) SUIN causes. It then introduces a new method-sequence elaboration-for evaluating the relative importance of causes. Sequence elaboration assesses the importance of causes through consideration of their position within a sequence and through consideration of the types of causes that make up the sequence as a whole. Throughout the article, methodological points are illustrated with substantive examples from the field of international and comparative studies. [Reprinted by permission of Sage Publications Inc., copyright 2009.]

Historical explanations seek to identify the causes of outcomes in particular cases. Although social scientists commonly develop historical explanations, they lack criteria for distinguishing different types of causes and for evaluating the relative importance of alternative causes of the same outcome. This article first provides an inventory of the five types of causes that are normally used in historical explanations: (1) necessary but not sufficient, (2) sufficient but not necessary, (3) necessary and sufficient, (4) INUS, and (5) SUIN causes. It then introduces a new method—sequence elaboration—for evaluating the relative importance of causes. Sequence elaboration assesses the importance of causes through consideration of their position within a sequence and through consideration of the types of causes that make up the sequence as a whole. Throughout the article, methodological points are illustrated with substantive examples from the field of international and comparative studies.