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AbstractReal‐time prediction of bathing water quality is suggested as an appropriate regulatory approach in recent WHO Guidelines and new European Union (EU) standards for bathing water quality. The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) has developed the first EU real‐time bathing water quality predictions at 10 sites throughout Scotland since 2004. This paper covers two stages in the evolution of modelling tools which inform these predictions based on antecedent rainfall and river flow, using four sites as examples. These tools, together with associated advisory systems, demonstrate the potential to minimise public exposure to adverse water quality where this occurs in discrete episodes after rainfall events. In addition, they allow an effective prediction and communication system to provide significant compliance benefits as samples taken during periods when bathing is not advised are disregarded for classification purposes.