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Over the past decade almost all developing countries have established energy planning activities in response to the grave problems that have arisen as a result of the drastic increase in energy prices, of the burden of energy related investment debt service, and of the problems of deforestation. Although the insti tutional and organizational responses are quite varied, it is largely engineers and economists who have been called upon to provide the necessary analytical capability to support policy decisions in the energy area. However, as evidenced by the recent participants in the Energy Management Training Program (EMTP), many of the analytical techniques now regarded as appropriate go beyond the usual background of those who are now assigned to such tasks. Indeed, this monograph is based on the material presented in the first ·part of the course, whose purpose is to bring the often diverse group to some common ground. Some of the material, such as Chapter 4 on the basics of energy pricing, is intended primarily for engineers. Other sections, such as Chapter 2 on energy balances, is primarily a vehicle for a discussion of the problems of units and differences in approach by different international bodies. The intent, then, is to provide in a single work a primer on a large number of different analytical tools.

1 Introduction -- 1.1 What is Energy Systems Analysis -- 1.2 Applicability of Energy Systems Analysis to Developing Countries -- 1.3 A Framework for National Energy Planning -- 1.4 Scope of This Book -- 2 Mathematical Fundamentals -- 2.1 Matrix Algebra -- 2.2 Econometrics -- 2.3 Linear Programming -- 2.4 Classical Optimization Techniques -- 2.5 Statistical Analysis of Energy Data: Oil Consumption in Tunisia -- 3 Network Models -- 3.1 Reference Energy Systems -- 3.2 Energy Demand and Fuel Mix Analysis -- 3.3 Matrix Algebraic Formulation: Application to the Dominican Republic -- 3.4 Matrix Notation for Fuel Mix Tables; Residential Demand in the Dominican Republic -- 4 Econometric Models -- 4.1 Estimating Elasticities -- 4.2 Estimation Problems -- 4.3 Application: Income and Price Elasticity of Energy Demand in Tunisia -- 5 Petroleum Sector Models -- 5.1 Technical Background -- 5.2 A Simple Refinery LP -- 5.3 Application to a West African Refinery -- 5.4 Application: Refinery Rehabilitation in Bangladesh -- 6 Input-Output Models -- 6.1 Fundamentals of Input-Output Analysis -- 6.2 Energy Denominated I/O Tables -- 6.3 RES-Transaction Table Relationships -- 6.4 Interfuel Substitutions in the I/O Framework -- 6.5 An Energy Input-Output Model for Portugal -- 7 Industrial Process Models -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 A Process Model of the Egyptian Iron and Steel Industry -- 8 Electric Sector Models -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 The Capacity Expansion Problem -- 8.3 Adding a Spatial Dimension: The Siting Problem -- 8.4 The Treatment of Electric Transmission in Spatial Programming Models -- 8.5 Incorporating Water Resource Planning Considerations -- 8.6 Environmental Considerations -- 8.7 An LP of the Jordanian Electric System -- 9 Energy System Optimization Models -- 9.1 The Basic Linear Programming Model -- 9.2 Capacity Variables -- 9.3 Interpretation of the Shadow Prices -- 10 Simulation Models -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 An Energy Cash Flow Simulation Model -- 11 Energy Economic Linkages -- 11.1 Linking the I/O and LP -- 11.2 Process Model Linkages -- 11.3 Macroeconomic Linkages.