This book develops a new theoretical approach to the explanation of systemic financial crises in industrial and emerging market countries. In contrast to standard models, the present cyclical approach is consistent with the following three stylized facts. Firstly, systemic financial crises are a recurrent phenomenon generally accompanied by excessive boom-bust cycles. Secondly, the frequency of financial crisis cycles is very irregular. Thirdly, most financial crisis cycles are initiated by positive shocks to profit expectations which induce an unsustainable build-up of financial fragility driven by irrational exuberance. The present approach is based on a sophisticated balancesheet structure with many assets, as well as on an expectation formation scheme which combines the rational expectations hypothesis with Keynes' Beauty Contest Theory.
Cover -- Preface -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- 1 Introduction and Overview -- 1.1 History vs. Theory -- 1.2 Outline of the Book -- I Theoretical and Empirical Foundations -- 2 Financial Crises and Financial Instability: Definitions and Principles -- 2.1 A General Definition of Financial Crises -- 2.2 Asset Price Fluctuations and Aggregate Economic Activity -- 2.2.1 Determinants of Asset Prices -- 2.2.2 Asset Prices and Financial Constraints -- 2.2.2.1 Perfect Capital Market Theory -- 2.2.2.2 Imperfect Capital Market Theory -- 2.2.2.3 A Comparison with Real World Financial Constraints -- 2.2.3 Asset Prices and Aggregate Demand -- 2.2.4 Asset Prices, Liquidity, Solvency and the Emergence of Cumulative Processes -- 2.2.4.1 Liquidity, Solvency, and Profits: Definitions and Interdependencies -- 2.2.4.2 Determinants of Bankruptcy -- 2.2.4.3 Cumulative Expansions and Contractions -- 2.3 Determinants of Financial Instability -- 2.3.1 A General Definition of Financial Instability -- 2.3.2 Cash Flow Positions and Present Values -- 2.3.2.1 Hedge, Speculative and Ponzi-Finance -- 2.3.2.2 Financial Instability in Closed Economies -- 2.3.2.3 Foreign Hedge, Foreign Speculative, and Foreign Ponzi Finance -- 2.3.2.4 Financial Instability in Open Economies -- 2.3.3 Adequacy of Refinancing Possibilities -- 2.3.4 Excess Volatility in Asset Prices -- 2.3.5 Monetary Instability and Debt Deflation -- 2.4 Exogenous and Endogenous Financial Crises -- 3 Stylized Facts and Standard Theory of Financial Crises -- 3.1 Defining and Identifying Financial Crises -- 3.1.1 Currency Crises -- 3.1.2 Banking Crises -- 3.1.3 Twin Crises -- 3.2 Frequency and Severity of Financial Crises -- 3.2.1 Incidence of Financial Crises -- 3.2.2 Duration and Costs of Financial Crises -- 3.3 Business Cycles, Financial Liberalization, and Financial Crises -- 3.3.1 Basic Links.
Financial Crises and Financial Instability: Definitions and Principles - Stylized Facts and Standard Theory of Financial Crises - A Model of Financial Crises and Endogenous Fluctuations in Industrial Countries - A Model of Financial Crises and Endogenous Fluctuations in Emerging Market Countries - A Calibration Model of Financial Crises in Emerging Markets.
This book develops a new theoretical approach to the explanation of systemic financial crises in industrial and emerging market countries. In contrast to standard models, the present cyclical approach is consistent with the following three stylized facts. Firstly, systemic financial crises are a recurrent phenomenon generally accompanied by excessive boom-bust cycles. Secondly, the frequency of financial crisis cycles is very irregular. Thirdly, most financial crisis cycles are initiated by positive shocks to profit expectations which induce an unsustainable build-up of financial fragility driven by irrational exuberance. The present approach is based on a sophisticated balancesheet structure with many assets, as well as on an expectation formation scheme which combines the rational expectations hypothesis with Keynes' Beauty Contest Theory.
This book develops a new theoretical approach to the explanation of systemic financial crises in industrial and emerging market countries. In contrast to standard models, the present cyclical approach is consistent with the following three stylized facts. Firstly, systemic financial crises are a recurrent phenomenon generally accompanied by excessive boom-bust cycles. Secondly, the frequency of financial crisis cycles is very irregular. Thirdly, most financial crisis cycles are initiated by positive shocks to profit expectations which induce an unsustainable build-up of financial fragility driven by irrational exuberance. The present approach is based on a sophisticated balancesheet structure with many assets, as well as on an expectation formation scheme which combines the rational expectations hypothesis with Keynes' Beauty Contest Theory
Sparer mit niedrigen Vermögen leiden unter der Geldpolitik der EZB besonders stark, wird häufig kritisiert. Deshalb untersuchen die Autoren die realen Renditen, die deutsche und österreichische Haushalte verschiedener finanzieller Vermögensgruppen in Zeiten extrem niedriger Zinssätze erzielen. In allen Gruppen gingen die Renditen zurück, allerdings weniger deutlich als angenommen. Außerdem zeigt sich, dass reiche Haushalte besonders betroffen sind, auch wenn ihre Renditen heute noch höher liegen als die ärmerer Haushalte. Während die allgemeinen Entwicklungen ähnlich sind, ist das Ertragsniveau in Österreich durchweg niedriger als in Deutschland. Ursache dafür ist vor allem die unterschiedliche Vermögensstruktur. Die Wirtschaftspolitik sollte daher eine höhere Diversifizierung der Vermögenswerte anstreben und dies insbesondere für ärmere Haushalte, indem die finanzielle Bildung effektiv verbessert wird.
