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Abstract

Research background: Economic relations between countries members of the EU and EU candidates are very strong. Germany and France have the leading economies of the EU, are in the top ten economies worldwide, and drivers of EU development. Serbia has strong economic relations with Germany and France, especially with Germany. Therefore, it is necessary to examine whether Germany and France impact the development of Serbia.

Purpose: The purpose of the study is to determine if there is a positive influence of a developed country on a developing country. The aim of the paper is to determine whether there is a long- and short-term positive relationship between Germany and France (EU members) and the Serbian economy (EU candidate).

Research methodology: A Vector Error Correction Model is used to analyze quarterly data from 2002Q2 to 2018Q2.

Results: The results showed a statistically significant long-term relationship between Germany and France and Serbia's real GDPs, so EU members have a long-term positive impact on the economy of EU candidates. In the case of the French, there is a short-run positive impact on the Serbian economy. For Germany, it is not the case.

Novelty: This paper fills the literature gap about the influence of a developed country on a developing country. Recommendations for policymakers in EU candidates could be that if they want to motivate people to accept the process of access to the EU, they must provide them with more information about long-run economic benefits from the association to the EU.

Globalizacija je proces svjetske ekonomske integracije koji vodi do globalne ekonomije bez granica. U radu se procjenjuje utjecaj globalizacije na gospodarski rast u slučaju zemalja Europske monetarne unije (EMU). Autori su koristili tri komponente globalizacije – ekonomsku, socijalnu i političku globalizaciju. Pooled Mean Group estimator (PMG) korišten je za procjenu dugoročne i kratkoročne veze između globalizacije i ekonomskog rasta. Rezultati su pokazali da u kratkom roku ekonomska i socijalna globalizacija ima pozitivan utjecaj na gospodarski rast, dok politička globalizacija negativno utječe na ekonomski rast zemalja EMU. Ekonomska globalizacija dugoročno ima statistički značajan pozitivan utjecaj na ekonomski rast zemalja EMU, dok društvena i politička globalizacija negativno utječe na ekonomski rast zemalja EMU. Autori preporučuju, za svaku zemlju, pojedinačni pristup prilikom prihvaćanja globalizacijskog procesa. Pristup ovisi o fazi razvoja zemlje, socijalnoj i političkoj pozadini. Jedan bi pristup mogao biti evolucijski za zemlje u razvoju i najmanje razvijene zemlje. Drugi pristup bi mogao biti brži način prihvaćanja globalizacije za razvijene zemlje. ; Globalization is a process of world economic integration which leads to the global economy without borders. The paper estimates the impact of globalization on economic growth in the case of European Monetary Union countries (EMU). Authors used three components of globalization – economic, social, and political globalization. Pooled Mean Group estimator (PMG) was used to estimate the long-run and short-run relationship between globalization and economic growth. The results showed that in the short-run, economic and social globalization has a positive impact on economic growth, while political globalization has a negative effect on the economic growth of EMU countries. In the long-run, economic globalization has a statistically significant positive impact on the economic growth of EMU countries, while social and political globalization has a negative effect on the economic growth of EMU countries. Authors recommend, for each country, case by case approach in accepting the globalization process. The approach depends on the country's development stage, social, and political background. Thus, the approach for developing and least developed countries could be an evolutionary way, while for the developed ones a faster way of acceptances of globalization, for developed countries.