Search results

At the theoretical level, even if populism and democracy are not necessarily antithetical, the former challenges the liberal component of democracy, advocating for the majority rule and putting under stress the principles of the rule of law. To test the relationship between liberal democracy and populism, we created four new questions that measure the support for liberal democracy conceived as a trade-off with different policies. We tested our battery of questions in a pilot survey with educated young voters. The results show that those individuals who exhibit lower levels of support for liberal democracy are the ones with higher populist attitudes. This might be due to the fact that the original battery of questions grasps the level of support for liberal democracy better than the standard 'Churchillian' question.

Levels of electoral volatility after the 2008 Great Recession were record in most Western European countries. The main causes of this electoral instability were the negative development of the economy, the crisis of the traditional political parties and the changes in the issues of political competition. At the individual level, it is not clear what factors lead voters to change partisan preferences after the Great Recession. In addition, in general terms, little is known about the differences between a stable voter and a volatile one. This study, for 12 Western European countries after the economic crisis, concludes that the economic voter model did not always explain the change of party preference after 2008, while sentiments of political dissatisfaction would help us to understand the change of parties between elections. ; Los niveles de volatilidad electoral tras la Gran Recesión de 2008 fueron récord en la mayoría de los países de Europa occidental. Entre las principales causas de esta inestabilidad electoral destacan el desarrollo negativo de la economía, la crisis de los partidos tradicionales y el cambio de los temas de competición política. A nivel individual, se desconoce qué factores propiciaron que los electores cambiasen de preferencia partidista después de la Gran Recesión. Además, en general, se sabe poco sobre las diferencias entre un elector estable y uno volátil. Este estudio de 12 países de Europa occidental tras la crisis económica concluye que el modelo del votante económico no siempre explicó el cambio de preferencia partidista después de 2008, mientras que los sentimientos de desafección política se encuentran entre las principales razones para entender el cambio de partidos entre elecciones.

This project is part of the Final Master Project, specifically the area of "Application of Machine Learning techniques to Security", which I selected as the first option among different possibilities, due to my interest in learning about this subject, which is widely used nowadays. The project is developed in different stages, first using the Weka platform (environment for knowledge analysis of the University of Waikato) and then developing a script written in Python that will do the pre-processing of the dataset, and the subsequent use of a predictive model for detecting malicious connections, specifically using the Scikit-Learn software library. The dataset used is "KDD Cup 1999" which includes a wide variety of simulated network intrusions in a military network environment. This dataset will be analyzed in the present project and will be used to train, test and adjust the selected model. A comparison of various algorithms will be made and applied to the dataset, and the algorithm with best results predicting attacks will be selected, and then tuned to try to find the best configuration using different techniques of Machine Learning and Data Engineering. ; El presente proyecto forma parte del Trabajo Fin de Máster, concretamente del área "Aplicación de técnicas de Machine Learning a la Seguridad", que había seleccionado como primera opción entre las distintas posibilidades, debido a mi interés por aprender acerca de ésta disciplina, cada vez más utilizada hoy en día. El proyecto se desarrolla en distintas etapas, usando primero la plataforma Weka (entorno para análisis del conocimiento de la Universidad de Waikato) y un desarrollando posteriormente un script escrito en lenguaje Python que permitirá realizar el tratamiento del dataset y la posterior utilización de un modelo predictivo para la detección de conexiones maliciosas, concretamente utilizando la librería de software Scikit-Learn. El dataset utilizado es "KDD Cup 1999" que incluye una amplia variedad de intrusiones de red simuladas en un entorno de red militar. Dicho dataset será analizado en el presente proyecto y se usará para entrenar, probar y ajustar el modelo seleccionado. Se realizará una comparación de diversos algoritmos que se aplicarán al dataset, y se seleccionará el tipo que de mejores resultados prediciendo ataques, para posteriormente tratar de ajustarlo al máximo usando diferentes técnicas de Machine Learning e Ingeniería de datos. ; El present projecte forma part del Treball Fi de Màster, concretament de l'àrea "Aplicació de tècniques de Machine Learning a la Seguretat", que havia seleccionat com a primera opció entre les diferents possibilitats, a causa del meu interès per aprendre sobre aquesta disciplina, cada vegada més utilitzada avui dia. El projecte es desenvolupa en diferents etapes, usant primer la plataforma Weka (entorn per a anàlisi del coneixement de la Universitat de Waikato) i un desenvolupant posteriorment un script escrit en llenguatge Python que permetrà realitzar el tractament del dataset i la posterior utilització d'un model predictiu per a la detecció de connexions malicioses, concretament utilitzant la llibreria de programari Scikit-Learn. El dataset utilitzat és "KDD Cup 1999" que inclou una àmplia varietat d'intrusions de xarxa simulades en un entorn de xarxa militar. Aquest dataset serà analitzat en el present projecte i s'usarà per entrenar, provar i ajustar el model seleccionat. Es realitzarà una comparació de diversos algorismes que s'aplicaran al dataset, i se seleccionarà el tipus que de millors resultats predient atacs, per posteriorment tractar d'ajustar-ho al màxim usant diferents tècniques d'aprenentatge automàtic i Enginyeria de dades.

Polarization is not new in Europe. Looking at electoral support for radical political forces after the Second World War, one can observe how polarization has been on the rise since the 1960s. Still, it is in the 1990s, with the thaw of European party systems and the subsequent emergence of (populist) radical parties, that the percentage of votes for anti-political establishment parties reached unprecedented levels. In this article, we not only show the general (country-level) picture but also highlight both the consequences and causes of polarization, proposing at the same time some potential remedies to combat it. Using an aggregate, longitudinal unique dataset, containing 47 European countries across more than 170 years from 1848 to 2020 (Casal Bértoa, 2021;Casal Bértoa and Enyedi, 2021), we try to shed light here on the perils of polarization for the quality of democracy, how traditional political parties are to be blamed, and how we can tackle the problem.

Focusing on the relationship between the access of political parties to direct public funding and electoral support for anti-political-establishment (e.g. populist, extremist) parties (APEp), this article tries to fill an important gap in the literature. Whereas previous contributions, mostly focused on the United States or established democracies in Western Europe, have presented contradictory findings, our study of 19 new democracies in East Central Europe clearly shows that the absence of state subsidies for political parties boosts support for those with an anti-political-establishment character. More importantly, and taking into account the minimum legal payout threshold that grants parties access to public subsidies, our results show that the more restrictive the regulations and the greater the difficulties faced by parties in obtaining state help, the higher the support for APEp. Our findings have obvious implications for the development of post-Communist party systems and the future of legislative (party funding) reform in the region.

AbstractThe rise in support for anti-political-establishment parties (APEp), especially since the beginning of the 2008 Great Recession, has put democracy in peril. Some scholars have warned us about the negative implications the recent rise of APEp might have for the development of democracy in Western Europe. For that reason, it is important we begin to understand what generates APEp's electoral success. Drawing on a new comparative dataset that examines all Western European democracies from 1849 until 2017, the current article attempts to provide an explanation. In particular, our analyses examine three alternative explanations put forward by the literature: economic, institutional, and sociological. Our results show that it is not economic performance but both institutional and sociological change which together can help to understand the current wave of support for APEp.

El objetivo de este artículo es profundizar en las explicaciones sobre la emergencia de nuevos partidos. En concreto, se estudia qué cuestiones han sido centrales en los discursos de las nuevas formaciones y hasta qué punto dichos temas 1) son demandas de la sociedad (demand syde) y 2) ya habían sido abordados por los partidos establecidos (supply syde). Para ello, utilizando los casos de España y los Países Bajos, analizamos los programas electorales de las nuevas formaciones políticas, identificamos los temas principales de su discurso, con encuestas de opinión vemos las principales preocupaciones de españoles y holandeses y, gracias al Comparative Manifestos Project, comprobamos hasta qué punto estos temas no habían sido abordados previamente por las fuerzas tradicionales. Nuestros resultados muestran que, mientras que en los Países Bajos los temas de los nuevos partidos apenas son nombrados por las formaciones tradicionales, en España los asuntos centrales son compartidos por todas las formaciones, y los partidos emergentes surgen debido a los sentimientos de desconfianza hacia los que ya estaban establecido ; The objective of this article is to shed light on explanations for the emergence of new parties. In particular, it examines which issues have been central to the discourses of these new formations and to what extent 1) these issues are relevant for the electors (demand side) and 2) have been addressed by already established parties (supply side). Using the cases of Spain and the Netherlands, we analyse the electoral programmes of the new parties, identify the main themes of their discourse and assess the main concerns for electors from Spain and the Netherlands based on opinion polls. Moreover, thanks to the Comparative Manifestos Project, we check to what extent these issues were not previously included in the manifestos of the established parties. Our results show that while the themes of new parties are scarcely named by traditional parties in the Netherlands, central issues are shared by all political formations in Spain, and new parties emerge due to feelings of distrust towards established ones

AbstractLabor market competition theory has traditionally analyzed the threat perceived by lower and middle class' natives on competition over jobs with immigrants. However, in this article we focus on the fiscal burden and competition for social benefits generated by unemployed immigrants and its impact on the vote for Populist Radical Right Parties (PRRPs). Combining individual-level data and aggregate unemployment indicators for over 60 regions from 10 EU countries, we show that, on the one hand, upper class natives seem to support PRRPs when migrant unemployment rates are higher, irrespective of migrants' origin, which is consistent with the fiscal burden model. On the other hand, lower and middle class natives are more likely to support PRRPs only in contexts of higher unemployment rates among non-EU migrants (but not among migrants from other EU member states), pointing towards an interaction between cultural and economic explanations. These findings underscore the need to account for migrant populations' characteristics and to consider not only labor competition, but also the fiscal burden to better understand how unemployment may impact PRRP voting.