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Engl. Zsfassung u.d.T.: The end of party democracy? : Political representation and ideologies

Engl. Zsfassung u.d.T.: Political anatomy of post-soviet Lithuania

The article analyzes the reasons of success of the Freedom Party in the 2020 Seimas elections. The case of Freedom Party is particularly interesting as it did not appeal to the median voter like previous new parties, but took a clearly liberal stance on such vulnerable issues (in rather conservative Lithuanian society) as LGBT rights. The article examines several probable accounts of the success story of the party: the newness of the party, the value shift in the society and the realignment of the voters. The article employs the data of the 2020 post-election survey and other relevant data sets. The analysis revealed that the effect of novelty contributed somewhat to the success of the Freedom Party, but the main reason for its good performance was the ability to mobilize liberal-minded voters, the number of which increased significantly compared to the 2016 Seimas elections. The party was able not only to take advantage of the changing values of the new generation, but also to consolidate liberal-minded voters who were previously dispersed. The results of the analysis suggest that attitudes on the conservatism–liberalism dimension have become an important factor determining party preferences in Lithuania, while so far, the only significant cleavage in Lithuania was based on different attitudes towards Russia and the Soviet past.

The article analyzes the reasons of success of the Freedom Party in the 2020 Seimas elections. The case of Freedom Party is particularly interesting as it did not appeal to the median voter like previous new parties, but took a clearly liberal stance on such vulnerable issues (in rather conservative Lithuanian society) as LGBT rights. The article examines several probable accounts of the success story of the party: the newness of the party, the value shift in the society and the realignment of the voters. The article employs the data of the 2020 post-election survey and other relevant data sets. The analysis revealed that the effect of novelty contributed somewhat to the success of the Freedom Party, but the main reason for its good performance was the ability to mobilize liberal-minded voters, the number of which increased significantly compared to the 2016 Seimas elections. The party was able not only to take advantage of the changing values of the new generation, but also to consolidate liberal-minded voters who were previously dispersed. The results of the analysis suggest that attitudes on the conservatism–liberalism dimension have become an important factor determining party preferences in Lithuania, while so far, the only significant cleavage in Lithuania was based on different attitudes towards Russia and the Soviet past. ; Straipsnyje analizuojamos sėkmingo Laisvės partijos pasirodymo 2020 m. Seimo rinkimuose priežastys. Šios partijos sėkmės atvejis itin įdomus, nes ji nemėgino taikyti į medianinį rinkėją, kaip ankstesnės naujosios partijos, bet užsiėmė aiškiai liberalias pozicijas tokiais vertybiniais klausimais (kaip LGBT teisės), kuriais iki šiol politikai vengdavo pasisakyti dėl santykinai konservatyvaus bendro visuomenės nusistatymo. Straipsnyje tikrinami keli skirtingi šios partijos sėkmės aiškinimai– partijos naujumo, vertybių kaitos ir rinkėjų partinio persirikiavimo. Analizei naudojami 2021 m. sausį–vasarį vykdytos porinkiminės apklausos ir kiti duomenys. Analizė atskleidė, kad naujumo efektas prisidėjo prie Laisvės partijos sėkmės, tačiau pagrindinė gero pasirodymo priežastis buvo sugebėjimas mobilizuoti liberalių pažiūrų rinkėjus, kurių reikšmingai padaugėjo, palyginti su 2016 m. Seimo rinkimais. Partija sugebėjo ne tik pasinaudoti pakitusiomis naujosios kartos vertybinėmis nuostatomis, bet ir konsoliduoti liberalių pažiūrų rinkėjus, kurie anksčiau išsisklaidydavo, remdami skirtingas partijas. Analizės rezultatai leidžia teigti, kad nuostatos konservatyvumo–liberalumo dimensijoje tapo svarbiu veiksniu, lemiančiu partines preferencijas, nors iki šiol vienintelė reikšminga vertybinė takoskyra Lietuvoje buvo skirtingas požiūris į Rusiją ir sovietinę praeitį.

The article analyzes the reasons of success of the Freedom Party in the 2020 Seimas elections. The case of Freedom Party is particularly interesting as it did not appeal to the median voter like previous new parties, but took a clearly liberal stance on such vulnerable issues (in rather conservative Lithuanian society) as LGBT rights. The article examines several probable accounts of the success story of the party: the newness of the party, the value shift in the society and the realignment of the voters. The article employs the data of the 2020 post-election survey and other relevant data sets. The analysis revealed that the effect of novelty contributed somewhat to the success of the Freedom Party, but the main reason for its good performance was the ability to mobilize liberal-minded voters, the number of which increased significantly compared to the 2016 Seimas elections. The party was able not only to take advantage of the changing values of the new generation, but also to consolidate liberal-minded voters who were previously dispersed. The results of the analysis suggest that attitudes on the conservatism–liberalism dimension have become an important factor determining party preferences in Lithuania, while so far, the only significant cleavage in Lithuania was based on different attitudes towards Russia and the Soviet past.

The article analyzes the reasons of success of the Freedom Party in the 2020 Seimas elections. The case of Freedom Party is particularly interesting as it did not appeal to the median voter like previous new parties, but took a clearly liberal stance on such vulnerable issues (in rather conservative Lithuanian society) as LGBT rights. The article examines several probable accounts of the success story of the party: the newness of the party, the value shift in the society and the realignment of the voters. The article employs the data of the 2020 post-election survey and other relevant data sets. The analysis revealed that the effect of novelty contributed somewhat to the success of the Freedom Party, but the main reason for its good performance was the ability to mobilize liberal-minded voters, the number of which increased significantly compared to the 2016 Seimas elections. The party was able not only to take advantage of the changing values of the new generation, but also to consolidate liberal-minded voters who were previously dispersed. The results of the analysis suggest that attitudes on the conservatism–liberalism dimension have become an important factor determining party preferences in Lithuania, while so far, the only significant cleavage in Lithuania was based on different attitudes towards Russia and the Soviet past.

The article analyzes the reasons of success of the Freedom Party in the 2020 Seimas elections. The case of Freedom Party is particularly interesting as it did not appeal to the median voter like previous new parties, but took a clearly liberal stance on such vulnerable issues (in rather conservative Lithuanian society) as LGBT rights. The article examines several probable accounts of the success story of the party: the newness of the party, the value shift in the society and the realignment of the voters. The article employs the data of the 2020 post-election survey and other relevant data sets. The analysis revealed that the effect of novelty contributed somewhat to the success of the Freedom Party, but the main reason for its good performance was the ability to mobilize liberal-minded voters, the number of which increased significantly compared to the 2016 Seimas elections. The party was able not only to take advantage of the changing values of the new generation, but also to consolidate liberal-minded voters who were previously dispersed. The results of the analysis suggest that attitudes on the conservatism–liberalism dimension have become an important factor determining party preferences in Lithuania, while so far, the only significant cleavage in Lithuania was based on different attitudes towards Russia and the Soviet past.

The article analyzes the reasons of success of the Freedom Party in the 2020 Seimas elections. The case of Freedom Party is particularly interesting as it did not appeal to the median voter like previous new parties, but took a clearly liberal stance on such vulnerable issues (in rather conservative Lithuanian society) as LGBT rights. The article examines several probable accounts of the success story of the party: the newness of the party, the value shift in the society and the realignment of the voters. The article employs the data of the 2020 post-election survey and other relevant data sets. The analysis revealed that the effect of novelty contributed somewhat to the success of the Freedom Party, but the main reason for its good performance was the ability to mobilize liberal-minded voters, the number of which increased significantly compared to the 2016 Seimas elections. The party was able not only to take advantage of the changing values of the new generation, but also to consolidate liberal-minded voters who were previously dispersed. The results of the analysis suggest that attitudes on the conservatism–liberalism dimension have become an important factor determining party preferences in Lithuania, while so far, the only significant cleavage in Lithuania was based on different attitudes towards Russia and the Soviet past.

The article analyses the interviewer effect on the data of three public opinion surveys on political attitudes of the population conducted in Lithuania. The study discusses why in international comparative studies Lithuania stands out for its extremely high interviewer effect, which raises serious doubts about the reliability and suitability of the data for analysis. The article, first, reviews the reasons for the interviewer effect and the methods of its measurement and, second, presents the results of multilevel modelling. The analysis of surveys conducted by three different public opinion research agencies reveals that the interviewer effect varies significantly depending on the research agency. The hypotheses on the differences in the interviewer effect related to the nature of the questions were not confirmed, but it was found that the interviewer effect was greater on more abstract and complex questions. In the conclusions, the recommendations for researchers working with surveys on how to control the interviewer effect are provided.

In the last decade, the propensity-to-vote (PTV) measure is being increasingly used in the research of electoral behavior. The purpose of this article is to explore the advantages and methodological issues of this measure, applying it for the analysis of the determinants of party choice in the 2016 Lithuanian parliamentary elections. In particular, the article explores the implications of using OLS regression for analysing a generic party with a stacked data matrix instead of cross-classified multilevel modeling.

Šiame straipsnyje analizuojamos iki šiol Lietuvoje nenaudoto pre­ferencijų per rinkimus matavimo įrankio – polinkio balsuoti už partiją (PBP) – atveriamos galimybės ir jį naudojant kylančios metodologinės problemos. Straipsnyje pristatoma rinkėjų pasirinkimo 2016 m. Seimo rin­kimuose veiksnių analizė, tiriant rinkėjų polinkį balsuoti už septynias didžią­sias Lietuvos partijas, išbandomos ir įvertinamos metodologinės galimybės analizuoti "bendrinės" partijos paramos veiksnius.

When estimating the effects of party preference, it is common to use party choice as a dependent variable in discrete choice models. A new tool of measuring partisan preferences, the so-called propensity-to-vote (PTV) measure, however, is gaining ground in the studies of electoral behavior. The proponents of PTV claim that this measure provides a better estimate of party utilities than the party choice variable. Moreover, it provides many methodological advantages and research opportunities that are not available using discrete choice models. The most important advantage is the possibility to analyze factors determining the utility of generic party using a stacked data matrix. The purpose of this article is to explore the advantages and methodological issues of this approach, applying a PTV measure for analyzing the data of the Lithuanian National Election Study 2016. The first part of the article presents the theoretical and methodological grounds of the PTV measure. The second part reviews the variances and the degree of overlap of the PTVs of the seven biggest Lithuanian parties in the 2016 parliamentary elections. In the third part, the factors of party preferences are analyzed by running separate regression models on the PTVs of the main parties. Finally, in the last part of the paper, the determinants of the preferences of a generic party are analyzed using the stacked matrix. The analysis reveals surprising differences between the determinants of the preferences of different parties in Lithuania. The models with sociodemographic variables (education, income, occupation, age, ethnicity, living place, religiosity and gender) and the attitude toward the Soviet past explain relatively well the propensities to vote for the Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats and for the Polish Electoral Action – the League of Families. The preferences for the other five parties, however, are not accounted for by the sociodemographic variables. The models for all parties improve substantially when the evaluation of the economic situation, the perceived level of corruption, the attitudes on Russia and the evaluation of party leaders are added. Stacking the PTVs of the seven parties to one variable provides an opportunity to measure the determinants of generic party utilities in Lithuania, i.e., the factors determining the choice between the parties rather than factors accounting for the preference for a specific party. The OLS and multilevel models with a stacked matrix demonstrate similar results as the models for separate parties. However, the interpretation of the results is more difficult because of the use of Y-hats to determine (or to control for) the effects of sociodemographic and some other variables. It is only the distance between the respondent and his/her perceived position of parties on the relationship of Lithuania with Russia (measured on the 0–10 scale) that fits well the logic of this kind of analysis. The status of a party (government party versus opposition party), which was included as macro level variable, had substantive and statistically significant effect in the OLS regression model, but failed to reach statistical significance in the cross-classified multilevel model. In general, a PTV measure proved to be a useful and theoretically-sound tool for measuring party preferences. First, it reveals the overlap of party preferences among voters and shows the competitiveness of a party system. Second, it allows the analysis of party preferences of non-voters and voters of small parties. Third, it provides much more information on party preferences of a voter than an ipsative party choice variable, and this information might be of special interest for the analysis of an unstable electorate of new democracies. However, the idea to use a PTV measure to analyze the support for generic party appears to be somewhat controversial. The analysis suggests that this approach only provides meaningful results for variables that are measured directly for a respondent*party combination used in stacked matrix. Moreover, the comparison of different models demonstrates that if party level variables are to be included in the model, the PTVs of a generic party should be modelled using a cross-classified, multilevel model, rather than an OLS regression. ; Šiame straipsnyje analizuojamos iki šiol Lietuvoje nenaudoto pre­ferencijų per rinkimus matavimo įrankio – polinkio balsuoti už partiją (PBP) – atveriamos galimybės ir jį naudojant kylančios metodologinės problemos. Straipsnyje pristatoma rinkėjų pasirinkimo 2016 m. Seimo rin­kimuose veiksnių analizė, tiriant rinkėjų polinkį balsuoti už septynias didžią­sias Lietuvos partijas, išbandomos ir įvertinamos metodologinės galimybės analizuoti "bendrinės" partijos paramos veiksnius.

Partisan activity has been the main and the most important mode of institutionalized political participation (in addition to electoral participation) in the modern democ­racy. Even though mass party membership is a distinct feature of modern political system (although not necessarily democratic), since 1960-ies the decline of party membership is observed in many democratic countries. Lithuania is a typical example of post-communist region, where party membership is regarded as a specific elitist activity rather than an ordinary practice of political involvement. In the article, the attitudes of Lithuanians towards party membership are analyzed to answer the question if and why people are not keen to join political parties. Public attitudes are explored using the data of a representative public opinion survey carried out in 2005 and qualitative data of in-depth interviews with ordinary people collected in 2008. Using a mixed method research strategy, the article analyses the image of political parties in Lithuania, determines the potential of party membership and inves­tigates the dominant reasons of avoiding partisan activity.In the first part of the article, the theories explaining partisan activity are pre­sented. In addition to Civic voluntarism model and General incentives theory used by Paul Whiteley and Patrick Seyd to explain partisan activity, the broader theories explaining changes of political culture and transformation of party models are dis­cussed. Moreover, the theoretical arguments for the exceptionalism of post-commu­nist societies are presented.In the second part of the article, the analysis of the qualitative data is presented. The exploration of public attitudes reveals that partisan activity can be perceived in several different ways: as a specific occupation, as a civic self-expression, as belong­ing to power elite, as a privilege, as dependence, and as partiality. These images of parties held by people are related to their attitudes towards party membership. The reasons provided by the people of not joining political parties can be grouped into three groups: 1) the lack of necessary resources or personal characteristics (e.g. old age, low education, etc.); 2) critical attitudes towards political parties; 3) dislike of partisan activity because of indifference towards politics or individualism and appre­ciation of personal independence.In the third part, the quantitative data drawn from the public opinion survey isanalysed. The data shows a surprisingly high potential of party membership in Lithua­nia: about 11 percent of all respondents and about 20 percent of respondents in the age group of 18–39 have an inclination to join a political party. However, 87 percent of individuals admit that they were not invited to join a political party during the last 5 years. This proves that Lithuanian political parties are not active in expanding their membership.The quantitative data approve the trends observed from the qualitative research. The two most popular reasons of not joining a party are the lack of resources or neces­sary characteristics (surprisingly, young age seems to be one of the most important of them) and an indifference towards politics. These two motives fit well into the Civic voluntarism model. Disappointment with politics or a negative attitude towards politi­cal parties in general, contrary to expectations, proved to be of secondary importance. The importance of individualist attitudes, i.e. the avoidance of commitment and appre­ciation of independence, unfortunately, could not be evaluated due to the lack of data.Summing up, the analysis of Lithuanian case suggests that low party member­ship in post-communist countries might be explained by low demand rather than low supply. In other words, we should look for the explanation of low enrolment in the process of recruitment of party members rather than in the attitudes of people. The research do not provide any evidence for a popular theory of "communist legacy" claiming that a "bad" image of parties inherited from communist regime accounts for the low party membership in post-communist societies. On the contrary, the data demonstrate rather positive attitudes towards partisan activity among Lithuanian population. ; Straipsnyje nagrinėjamas Lietuvos žmonių požiūris į partinę narystę, ieškant atsakymo, ar ir kodėl žmonės nelinkę stoti į politines partijas. Deri­nant kiekybinę ir kokybinę analizę, straipsnyje nagrinėjamas žmonių požiūris į partijas, atskleidžiami svarbiausi nestojimo į partiją motyvai, įvertinamas partinės narystės potencialas. Analizės rezultatai rodo, kad nemažas žmonių procentas norėtų stoti į partiją, tačiau nėra gavę kvietimo. Vyraujantys neno­ro stoti į partijas motyvai yra nesidomėjimas politika, prastas savo kompe­tencijos vertinimas ir nenoras būti priklausomam. Analizė leidžia teigti, kad menką partinės narystės lygį Lietuvoje geriau gali paaiškinti ne komunistinis paveldas, o partijų nesuinteresuotumas investuoti į narystės plėtrą.

Partisan activity has been the main and the most important mode of institutionalized political participation (in addition to electoral participation) in the modern democ­racy. Even though mass party membership is a distinct feature of modern political system (although not necessarily democratic), since 1960-ies the decline of party membership is observed in many democratic countries. Lithuania is a typical example of post-communist region, where party membership is regarded as a specific elitist activity rather than an ordinary practice of political involvement. In the article, the attitudes of Lithuanians towards party membership are analyzed to answer the question if and why people are not keen to join political parties. Public attitudes are explored using the data of a representative public opinion survey carried out in 2005 and qualitative data of in-depth interviews with ordinary people collected in 2008. Using a mixed method research strategy, the article analyses the image of political parties in Lithuania, determines the potential of party membership and inves­tigates the dominant reasons of avoiding partisan activity.In the first part of the article, the theories explaining partisan activity are pre­sented. In addition to Civic voluntarism model and General incentives theory used by Paul Whiteley and Patrick Seyd to explain partisan activity, the broader theories explaining changes of political culture and transformation of party models are dis­cussed. Moreover, the theoretical arguments for the exceptionalism of post-commu­nist societies are presented.In the second part of the article, the analysis of the qualitative data is presented. The exploration of public attitudes reveals that partisan activity can be perceived in several different ways: as a specific occupation, as a civic self-expression, as belong­ing to power elite, as a privilege, as dependence, and as partiality. These images of parties held by people are related to their attitudes towards party membership. The reasons provided by the people of not joining political parties can be grouped into three groups: 1) the lack of necessary resources or personal characteristics (e.g. old age, low education, etc.); 2) critical attitudes towards political parties; 3) dislike of partisan activity because of indifference towards politics or individualism and appre­ciation of personal independence.In the third part, the quantitative data drawn from the public opinion survey isanalysed. The data shows a surprisingly high potential of party membership in Lithua­nia: about 11 percent of all respondents and about 20 percent of respondents in the age group of 18–39 have an inclination to join a political party. However, 87 percent of individuals admit that they were not invited to join a political party during the last 5 years. This proves that Lithuanian political parties are not active in expanding their membership.The quantitative data approve the trends observed from the qualitative research. The two most popular reasons of not joining a party are the lack of resources or neces­sary characteristics (surprisingly, young age seems to be one of the most important of them) and an indifference towards politics. These two motives fit well into the Civic voluntarism model. Disappointment with politics or a negative attitude towards politi­cal parties in general, contrary to expectations, proved to be of secondary importance. The importance of individualist attitudes, i.e. the avoidance of commitment and appre­ciation of independence, unfortunately, could not be evaluated due to the lack of data.Summing up, the analysis of Lithuanian case suggests that low party member­ship in post-communist countries might be explained by low demand rather than low supply. In other words, we should look for the explanation of low enrolment in the process of recruitment of party members rather than in the attitudes of people. The research do not provide any evidence for a popular theory of "communist legacy" claiming that a "bad" image of parties inherited from communist regime accounts for the low party membership in post-communist societies. On the contrary, the data demonstrate rather positive attitudes towards partisan activity among Lithuanian population.