The enactment of 18th Constitutional Amendment in 2010 was followed by devo-lution of most of the functions of the erstwhile Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Live-stock (MINFAL) to the Provinces and the MINFAL was formally abolished on June 30, 2011. Instead, a new Ministry of National Food Security and Research was established1 for better execution of un-devolved functions as well as attaining and maintaining national food security. The functions assigned to the new Ministry are at Annex-1. This devolution of re-sponsibilities to provinces led to increased attention to agriculture2 with a common notion that there is a significant untapped potential for economic growth and employment creation associ-ated with productivity improvement of traditional crops and importantly diversification to-wards high-value and climate smart agriculture, including livestock, and post-harvest value addition. Unlocking this potential for all these components requires a transformative approach that would include major policy reforms, institutional changes, and a re-orientation of public resources away from wasteful subsidies to smart subsidies and productive public investments. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; Pakistan Agricultural Capacity Enhancement Program (PACE); CRP2; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)
Agriculture and Irrigation sectors except for national food security and federal agriculture research have been devolved to the provinces following Eighteenth Constitutional Amendment in 2010. The Government of Sindh has approved and notified its first ever Agriculture and Livestock Policy in April 2018. To achieve objectives outlined in the Policy, it is imperative to increase investment in agriculture sector substantially to unleash the full potential of agriculture both for inclusive growth and economic development in the province. Moving towards this desirable goal of enhancing investment in agriculture and irrigation, it is vital to understand current resource sharing between the federation and federating units in Pakistan, gross resources available to the province in a financial year, dynamics of public expenditure allocations at sub-national level, and interplay of diverse interests during the budget process (Fan, Yu, and Saurkar 2008; Mogues 2015). Similarly, budget institutions, electoral system, and political institutions, apart from population composition, play their role in influencing public spending allocations during budget process and imposing constraints. The evidence suggests that budget process and institutions have substantial influence on budget allocation across different sub-regions and sectors. Despite huge transfer of resources to the provinces following the 7th National Finance Commission Award of 2010, the provinces have been underscoring increasing tight fiscal space. Given these pronounced binding constraint and rigid allocation of resources, it is challenging to enhance allocations to achieve desirable policy objectives. In these environments, insight regarding political and budget institutions will help in structural analysis of the budget, rationalization of existing public spending across sectors, and exploring the possibility of fiscal space through resource allocation restructuring. This paper reviews the interaction of political and administrative institutions, allocation of available resources as well as public spending trends and identify the fiscal space that could possibly be made available for enhanced allocation to agriculture, livestock, fisheries and irrigation in Sindh. Section 2 provides the structure of province of Sindh's economy and various challenges confronting it. Section 3 reviews resources available, inter-mediation of budget institutions for resource allocation, public investment and structure of spending in Sindh; both recurrent and development. Section 4 highlights the subsidies in agriculture, particularly the subsidies on fertiliser, wheat farmers and millers, and irrigation. Section 5 looks at the taxes related to agricultural land and revenues collected. Section 6 estimates the fiscal space within existing resources that can be made available for enhanced investment in agriculture and irrigation. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; Pakistan Agricultural Capacity Enhancement Program (PACE); PSSP; CRP2; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)
Effective governance is one of the key challenges for both developing and developed countries. Governments, today, are increasingly encountering complex and cross-cutting issues such as economic and financial volatility, internal and external conflicts, growing social tensions, adverse demographic trends, climate change vulnerabilities, weak regulatory regimes, huge infrastructure and service delivery gaps, state and elite capturing and sustaining rule of law. Faced with growing criticism of infectiveness of state institutions undermining country's economic, social and political development because of weakening capacity of public officials to pace up with emerging challenges, there is a renewed interest in reforming the governance and reforming the civil service. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; Pakistan Agricultural Capacity Enhancement Program (PACE); PSSP; CRP2; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)
A Food Outlook report explains the crop situation with in specific geographical boundaries. It identifies the past trends in area, production, yield, and price and predict future trends based on past values, thereby helping the government entities to make well informed decisions and farm growers to maximize profitability. The purpose of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Food Outlook Report is to understand the trends and forecasts relating to area, production, yield, and price of four major rabi crops of KP i.e., wheat, gram, garlic, and onion for 2021-22 cropping season. The report provides commodity balance sheet showing changes in crop stocks, utilization, and output. Moreover, the forecasts analysis may help in anticipating any upcoming shock related to food demand and supply. It also helps farmers to take advantage of emerging opportunities and prevent themselves from any anticipated losses. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; PACE; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance ; DSGD
A food outlook report explains the past, current, and future situation of various crops in a specific geographical location. A food outlook report is useful in showing the trends and fluctuations in the cultivated area, production, yield, prices, and other variables. This information is helpful for relevant stakeholders in determining the possible impending shortages or gluts in the food market. A timely analysis on food output and prices can enable policymakers to make wellinformed decisions that can result in controlling market distortions. A major benefit of such reports is that it can predict any anticipated shock or guide about exploiting a growing opportunity. The forecasts conducted in this food outlook report can be helpful in determining the supply and prices of the crops at their harvesting time. To counter a foreseeable shortage or glut, governments can work with the relevant stakeholders to enable timely imports or exports of the crop. One of the main objectives of this paper is to make timely and evidence-based decisions to overcome gaps between food production and consumption growth, and to increase access of the growing population to affordable foods. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; PACE; CRP2; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; Capacity Strengthening; PSSP ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)
AbstractThis study uses social accounting matrix multipliers and structural path analyses to estimate effects of COVID‐19 and related fiscal stimuli on five household groups. The COVID‐19 lockdown increased poverty in Pakistan by 15%, which was addressed using a $1.5 billion, digitally implemented Ehsaas Emergency Cash (EEC) program that reached 14.8 million poor households. The study's models show that the largest multipliers from Ehsaas program finance were in agriculture, as a 1 Rupee shock adds 0.225 Rupee income to households. About 30% of that gain was estimated to go to poor farm families. In contrast, our models find that construction and trade growth added three times as much income to poor nonfarm and urban households as to farm households. However, those sectors added only one third as much total income as agriculture. From the structural path analysis, the importance of capital assets in generating income was seen, as was the possibility of greater poverty reduction from sectors with proportionally fewer intermediate inputs and more value added.
The food systems approach can contribute to food security and reduced malnutrition levels by identifying key investments and policies throughout the food system, including production, processing, marketing, and consumption of food. However, in countries facing fragility and conflict, it has proven difficult to implement such an approach and achieve the desired results. This has been the case in Afghanistan, where high levels of malnutrition stem in part from an undersupply of nutritious food. Multi-sectoral approaches to promote nutrition sensitivity and achieve diet-based solutions have also had only limited impact. This paper reports on an analysis of the nutrition sensitivity of food systems in Afghanistan using multi-sector consultations and gap analyses to examine two key food and nutrition policies, the National Comprehensive Agriculture Development Priority Program and the Afghanistan Food Security and Nutrition Agenda. It highlights gaps in the policies and identifies investment priorities to make food systems more nutrition sensitive. The results show that instilling nutrition sensitivity into the operation of Afghanistan's food systems can only be accomplished if certain key measures are incorporated into the food system. These include addressing the absence of knowledge in the population regarding healthy diets, the lack of sufficient food for vulnerable populations, weak irrigation systems, capacity constraints at individual and institutional levels, data challenges, and weak natural resource management. In addition, the above weaknesses are compounded by the continued violence and conflict-induced insecurity, weak government, and inadequate investments. Given the role of different sectors in contributing to improved nutrition, appropriate and effective multi-stakeholder coordination and collaboration is paramount to such efforts. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; CRP2; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; Capacity Strengthening; UNFSS ; DGO; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)
Balochistan's agriculture and related economic development during the last four decades has been driven by an enhancement in canal command areas and widespread use of tubewells. While it enabled yield increases and the growth of high value horticulture, it led to excessive mining of ground water. It is not only threatening sustainable agriculture and livelihoods but also creating severe environmental repercussions. It is generally believed that this unchecked groundwater extraction has been a result of policy regime, such as promoting installation of tubewells through various incentive schemes and tubewells subsidy which allows farmers to pay only 5-10% of the actual cost, and as a result the Federal and provincial governments have been paying PKR 23 billion per year. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; Pakistan Agricultural Capacity Enhancement Program (PACE); PSSP; CRP2 ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)
Pakistan is vulnerable to climate change impacts. Like many developing countries, it is also facing the challenge of dealing with governance of climate change and restructuring associated institutions. It is estimated that the future cost of climate impact would be around $6 billion to $14 billion annually over the next 40 years. Ministry of Climate Change is now focusing in creating necessary infrastructure and platforms for policy decisions and implementation. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; Pakistan Agricultural Capacity Enhancement Program (PACE); PSSP; CRP2; Knowledge Lab on Climate-Resilient Food Systems ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)
Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan's GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones. Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government's cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic. The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan's annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; PSSP; Pakistan Agricultural Capacity Enhancement Program (PACE); CRP2; Capacity Strengthening; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; COVID-19 Measuring Impacts and Prioritizing Policies for Recovery ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)
Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan's GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones. Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government's cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic. The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan's annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; G Cross-cutting gender theme; Capacity Strengthening; Pakistan Agricultural Capacity Enhancement Program (PACE); CRP2 ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)
Prolonged droughts and depleting groundwater resources have been a serious challenge to the economy of province of Balochistan, Pakistan. Proliferation of tube-wells incentivized by government policy interventions and continued subsidy for electric tube-wells for agriculture and choice for high-water consumption crops have led to steep decline in water tables. This paper uses Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) Multiplier model approach to simulate impact of declining water tables on the provincial economy, a first ever effort. To capture the impact of declining water tables, increase in shadow prices of groundwater are calculated and the effects are traced on agricultural production. Using these effects, simulations are designed to reflect the impact of water tables' decline on macroeconomic variables including GDP, government's revenues/expenditures, households' income, and net exports. Agricultural policy options are also introduced in the model to explore their effectiveness in mitigating the effects of groundwater exploitation. Effects of non-agricultural policy options such as the debated removal of tube-well subsidy, shifting to non-agricultural sectors and investment in recharge mechanisms are also estimated on the overall provincial economy. Findings from the paper indicate that depleting water tables have adversely affected the provincial economy and the impact of widely recommended agricultural policy is moderate in mitigating these effects. Subsidy rationalization is observed to have substantial impact on GDP, households, and trade balance. However, investment in recharge mechanisms and expansion in processing, manufacturing and services sector can be crucial for the development of the province. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; PACE; PSSP; CRP2; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)
AbstractThe effects of marriage between biological relatives on the incidence of childhood genetic illness and mortality are of major policy significance, as rates of consanguinity exceed 50% in various countries. Empirical research on this question is complicated by the fact that consanguinity is often correlated with poverty and other unobserved characteristics of households, which may have independent effects on mortality. This study has developed an instrumental variables empirical strategy to re-examine this question, based on the concept that the availability of unmarried cousins of the opposite gender at the time of marriage creates quasi-random variation in the propensity to marry consanguineously. Using primary data collected in Bangladesh in 2006–07 and Pakistan in 2009–10, the study found that previous estimates of the impact of consanguinity on child health were biased and falsely precise. The study also empirically investigated the social and economic causes of consanguinity (including marital quality) and concludes that marrying a cousin can have positive economic effects for one's natal family, by allowing deferral of dowry payments until after marriage.
