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Blog: Robert E Kelly
This re-posts an article I wrote for the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists recently on N Korea's likely first-use of nuclear weapons in any serious Korean contingency. The University of Pennsylvania invited me to participate in two-day forum on nuclear weapons … Continue reading →
Blog: Robert E Kelly
Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un are gangsters who rule over mafia states. No wonder they get along famously. Like recognizes like. Most of the commentary on the meting of Kim and Putin has focused on what they will trade … Continue reading →
Blog: Robert E Kelly
Without a headline defense budget hike, ROKA, ROKAF, and ROKN are going to collide over the costs of army manpower replacement, missile defense, and an aircraft carrier in the next decade. (I am second from the left in the picture.) … Continue reading →
Blog: Robert E Kelly
Ukrainian strikes on Russia proper jeopardize the rickety pro-Ukraine aid coalition in the West. Ukraine shouldn't do this. It is too risky. I just wrote on this topic for 1945.com. There are many reasons to strike Russia directly, which Eliot … Continue reading →
Blog: Robert E Kelly
Russia is bogged down in a war it can't win. A weaker-than-expected Ukrainian spring offensive does not change that. Russia's still lacks a path to victory which remotely justifies the costs and isolation of the war, even if it manages … Continue reading →
Blog: Robert E Kelly
I do think there was a theory for the war, but the neocons did not elaborate it well and it did not convince the public. Hence the emphasis on WMD instead. As Wolfowitz noted, a lot of people in the … Continue reading →
Blog: Robert E Kelly
The GOP's response was grossly exaggerated and hypocritical. Yes, the balloon was bad, but it did not nearly justify MAGA's weeks of fear-mongering and alarmism. We're already sliding toward a cold war with China. Let's not charge into it, though, … Continue reading →
Blog: Robert E Kelly
The anti-Ukraine-aid crowd has jumped from one argument to another to get NATO to stop helping Ukraine since February. Many of these claims are inconsistent, but that makes no difference, because their real purpose is to help Putin win the … Continue reading →
Blog: Robert E Kelly
Russian nuclear use in Ukraine is extremely unlikely, and NATO would not hit back with a nuke even if they did. I am fairly exhausted with the lurid alarmism that we are tumbling toward world war 3 or some kind … Continue reading →
Blog: Robert E Kelly
There is no obvious Ukrainian target worth the massive geopolitical blowback of a nuclear strike, so I think it is extremely unlikely. This is a re-post of an op-ed I wrote for 1945.com. So much of the debate around nukes … Continue reading →
Blog: Robert E Kelly
If the Russian reservist mobilization fails to stop Ukrainian counter-offensives, then Putin might consider nuclear escalation. This is a re-post of an op-ed I wrote for Channel News Asia on possible Russian nuclear use scenarios in the Ukraine war. I … Continue reading →
Blog: Robert E Kelly
I spoke at the Asian Leadership Conference in Seoul a few weeks ago on S Korean/Japanese indigenous nuclearization and then published my basic thinking with Foreign Policy magazine on the topic a few days later. Both of the venues required … Continue reading →
Blog: Robert E Kelly
Pursuing a restrained US foreign policy is compatible with helping Ukraine, because restraint still takes threats seriously and Putin is pretty obviously one. This is a re-post of an essay I just wrote for 1945.com. I am pretty shocked at … Continue reading →
Blog: Robert E Kelly
There has a been a pretty vibrant debate in South Korea over building an indigenous aircraft carrier. That debate has been especially resonant where I live – Busan – because it would probably be built here. This post is a … Continue reading →
"Close presidential elections in the United States are measured, evaluated and remembered primarily by simple statistics. Why were the votes so close? What issues split the electorate? Was it the behavior or the reputation of the candidates? This book answers these questions and more, identifying and examining 12 of the closest elections from 1796 to 2000"--Provided by publisher