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In order to estimate the economic costs of climate change for Tunisia, this paper uses a combination of biophysical and economic models. In addition, the paper draws on the literature to complement the quantitative analysis with policy recommendations on how to adapt to the changing climate. The results bear out the expectation that climate change has a negative but weak overall effect on the Tunisian economy. Decomposing the global and local effects shows that global climate change may benefit the agricultural sector since higher world market prices for agricultural commodities are likely to stimulate export expansion and import substitution. Locally felt climate change, however, is likely to hurt the agricultural sector as lower yields reduce factor productivities and lead to lower incomes and higher food prices. The combined local and global effects are projected to be mostly negative and the costs will have to be carried mainly by urban and richer households. From a policy perspective, the results suggest that Tunisia should try to maximize the benefits from rising global agricultural prices and to minimize (or reverse) declining crop yields at home.

La modélisation des impacts du changement climatique sur l'agriculture présente un défi majeur résultant de processus de grandes envergures lié au fonctionnement des marchés, à l'écosystème et au comportement humain. Le cadre analytique utilisé dans cette monographie intègre des composants de la modélisation qui vont de la macro à la micro pour modéliser un ensemble de processus, de l'économie à la biologie. Ce chapitre regroupe les détails techniques qui se rapportent aux modèles utilisés pour cette monographie ainsi que d'autres informations techniques qu'on retrouve dans bon nombre de chapitre. La Figure 2.1 présente un diagramme qui fait le lien entre les trois modèles utilisés : l'Institut International de Recherche sur les Politiques Alimentaires (IFPRI), le modèle international pour l'analyse de produits agricoles et des échanges commerciaux, (IMPACT) (Rosegrant et al. 2008), un modèle d'équilibre partiel de l'agriculture qui met l'accent sur les politiques de simulations, un modèle hydrologique intégré au modèle IMPACT, et le logiciel d'aide à la décision pour le transfert des technologies agricoles (DSSAT) (Jones et al. 2003), qui est utilisé pour évaluer le rendement de la production agricole ; PR ; IFPRI1; CRP7 ; EPTD ; CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)

IFPRI3; ISI; CRP7; HarvestChoice ; EPTD; WCAO ; PR ; Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)

There is increasing evidence suggesting that climate change will negatively impact agricultural production in South Asia. Decreased domestic production may make South Asian countries more dependent on imports. The extent to which South Asia will need to increase its imports as a result of climate change will presumably depend on the degree to which the latter will affect domestic output. The effects of climate change on agriculture may well differ substantially for individual South Asian countries and indeed for regions within a given country which can be approximated by food production units. This calls for an analysis of climate change effects on trade flows under alternative trade policy regimes both for agriculture and non-agricultural sectors. The specific objectives of the paper include the following: analyze the extent to which agricultural production in South Asia and elsewhere in the world may be affected by different scenarios regarding climate change; analyze the extent to which changes in domestic production in South Asia resulting from climate change will lead to increased demand for imports by South Asian countries; analyze the effects of increased import demand in South Asia and changing exportable surpluses elsewhere on world market prices of major agricultural commodities consumed in South Asia; to the extent that South Asian governments allow transmission of changes in world market prices to domestic prices, analyze the potential welfare effects of changes in the latter; analyze if, and to what extent, worldwide trade liberalization and implementation of South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) will dampen the effects of climate change on domestic agricultural prices in South Asia. In this context, the report is organized as follows: chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two describes the methodology used - with particular attention to how different models and modeling techniques are linked to produce an as accurate as possible assessment based on state-of-the-art knowledge. Chapter three provides an up-to-date analysis of trade flows and policies, and production patterns for key food products in South Asia to explain the context in which climate change is taking place. Chapter four describes the climate change scenarios and illustrates their consequences for crop yields at a global level and for South Asia - and in particular shows the vulnerability of the region to these changes. Baseline design, simulations, and results are discussed in chapter five. The final chapter six provides a short summary, discusses the limitations of the analysis, and derives suggestions and guidelines for future research.

This report's purpose is to help Lao policy makers and stakeholders prepare for future El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. It does this by providing information on ENSO's poverty, economic, and agricultural impacts in Lao PDR and outlining ways forward. The report finds that ENSO's impacts vary from region to region and harm Lao PDR's people, economy, and agricultural sector. The country has sought to prepare for climate risks through climate change adaptation and disaster risk management but could do more to prepare specifically for ENSO events. Preparing for ENSO is important because of Lao PDR's exposure to ENSO-related climate shocks, the importance of agriculture in the national economy, the rural population's climate and economic vulnerability, and the lack of research on ENSO in Lao PDR.This report is timely given the lack of research on ENSO in Lao PDR and the high likelihood the country will face another El Niño in the near term. It is difficult to disentangle ENSO's impacts from those of other climate shocks, natural disasters,and economic cycles. This makes it more difficult to design policies and response mechanisms that help mitigate ENSO-related welfare losses and economic damages.This report evaluates El Niño and La Niña's impacts on Lao PDR's agricultural sector particularly crops, livestock, and fisheries—and how these have implications for the economy and society. It then looks at the actions undertaken by the Lao government to mitigate the losses associated with climate risks. This includes actions to prepare and respond to climate change and natural disasters. Next, the report simulates how well certain policy options mitigate ENSO-related GDP and welfare losses. It concludes by recommending actions to enhance Lao PDR's preparedness for future ENSO events. ; IFPRI5; CRP7 ; EPTD ; Non-PR ; CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)

The Challenge The unimpeded growth of greenhouse gas emissions is raising the earth's temperature. The consequences include melting glaciers, more precipitation, more and more extreme weather events, and shifting seasons. The accelerating pace of climate change, combined with global population and income growth, threatens food security everywhere. Agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperatures eventually reduce yields of desirable crops while encouraging weed and pest proliferation. Changes in precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of short-run crop failures and long-run production declines. Although there will be gains in some crops in some regions of the world, the overall impacts of climate change on agriculture are expected to be negative, threatening global food security. Populations in the developing world, which are already vulnerable and food insecure, are likely to be the most seriously affected. In 2005, nearly half of the economically active population in developing countries--2.5 billion people--relied on agriculture for its livelihood. Today, 75 percent of the world's poor live in rural areas. This Food Policy Report presents research results that quantify the climate-change impacts mentioned above, assesses the consequences for food security, and estimates the investments that would offset the negative consequences for human well-being. This analysis brings together, for the first time, detailed modeling of crop growth under climate change with insights from an extremely detailed global agriculture model, using two climate scenarios to simulate future climate. The results of the analysis suggest that agriculture and human well-being will be negatively affected by climate change: In developing countries, climate change will cause yield declines for the most important crops. South Asia will be particularly hard hit. Climate change will have varying effects on irrigated yields across regions, but irrigated yields for all crops in South Asia will experience large declines. Climate change will result in additional price increases for the most important agricultural crops-rice, wheat, maize, and soybeans. Higher feed prices will result in higher meat prices. As a result, climate change will reduce the growth in meat consumption slightly and cause a more substantial fall in cereals consumption. Calorie availability in 2050 will not only be lower than in the no-climate-change scenario--it will actually decline relative to 2000 levels throughout the developing world. By 2050, the decline in calorie availability will increase child malnutrition by 20 percent relative to a world with no climate change. Climate change will eliminate much of the improvement in child malnourishment levels that would occur with no climate change. Thus, aggressive agricultural productivity investments of US$7.1-7.3 billion are needed to raise calorie consumption enough to offset the negative impacts of climate change on the health and well-being of children. Recommendations The results of this analysis suggest the following policy and program recommendations. 1. Design and implement good overall development policies and programs. Given the current uncertainty about location-specific effects of climate change, good development policies and programs are also the best climate-change adaptation investments

La croissance incontrôlée des émissions de gaz à effet de serre est en train de réchauffer la planète, avec pour conséquences la fonte des glaciers, l'augmentation des précipitations, la multiplication de phénomènes météorologiques extrêmes, et le décalage des saisons. L'accélération du changement climatique, jointe à la croissance de la population et du revenu au niveau mondial, menace partout la sécurité alimentaire. L'agriculture est extrêmement sensible au changement climatique. Des températures plus élevées diminuent les rendements des cultures utiles tout en entrainant une prolifération des mauvaises herbes et des parasites. La modification des régimes de précipitations augmente la probabilité de mauvaises récoltes à Court terme et d'une baisse de la production à long terme. Bien que certaines régions du monde puissent enregistrer une amélioration de quelques unes de leurs cultures, le changement climatique aura généralement des impacts négatifs sur l'agriculture et menacera la sécurité alimentaire au niveau mondial. Les populations du monde en développement, déjà vulnérables et exposées à l'insécurité alimentaire, seront vraisemblablement les plus gravement affectées. En 2005, près de la moitié de la population économiquement active des pays en développement, soit 2,5 milliards de personnes, tirait le principal de ses ressources de l'agriculture. Aujourd'hui, 75% des pauvres du monde vivent dans des zones rurales. Ce Rapport sur les politiques alimentaires présente les résultats de recherches qui quantifient les impacts du changement climatique mentionnés ci-dessus, évalue leurs conséquences sur la sécurité alimentaire, et estime le volume d'investissements qu'il faudrait consentir pour éviter les conséquences négatives de ce changement sur le bien-être de l'humanité. Cette analyse associe, pour la première fois, la modélisation détaillée de la croissance des cultures soumises au changement climatique aux connaissances apportées par un modèle agricole global extrêmement détaillé, sur la base de deux scénarios pour simuler le climat à venir. Les résultats de cette analyse suggèrent que **l'agriculture et le bien-être de l'humanité seront négativement affectés par le changement climatique**: * Dans les pays en développement, le changement climatique provoquera une baisse de la production des cultures les plus importantes. Cette baisse se fera particulièrement sentir dans l'Asie du Sud. * Le changement climatique aura des effets variables sur le rendement des cultures irriguées selon les régions, mais en Asie du Sud les rendements de toutes les cultures irriguées subiront de fortes baisses. * Le changement climatique amplifiera la hausse des prix des principaux produits agricoles: riz, blé, maïs et soja. Le fourrage, plus cher, entrainera une augmentation des prix de la viande, avec deux conséquences: un léger ralentissement de la croissance de la consommation de viande, et une accélération substantielle de la diminution de la consommation de céréales. * En 2050, la disponibilité en calories sera non seulement inférieure à celle d'un scénario sans changement climatique: en fait elle sera inférieure aux niveaux de l'an 2000 dans l'ensemble du monde en développement! * En 2050, la baisse de la disponibilité en calories augmentera la malnutrition infantile de 20 % par rapport à un scénario sans changement climatique. De plus, le changement climatique éliminerait une grande partie des gains qui auraient pu être réalisés en matière de malnutrition infantile en l'absence de changement climatique. * Des investissements de productivité agricole agressifs, de l'ordre de 7,1 à 7,3 milliards d'US$2, sont donc nécessaires pour accroître la consommation de calories de façon à neutraliser les impacts négatifs du changement climatique sur la santé et le bien-être des enfants. ; PR ; IFPRI1 ; EPTD

The first decade of the 21st century has seen several harbingers of a troubled future for global food security. The food price spike of 2008, with its consequent food riots and resulting political changes in several countries, awoke the world's leaders to the re-emergence of this threat to human well-being and social harmony. The excessive heat and drought in Russia that led to the 2010 wildfires and grain embargo, as well as the unprecedented floods in Pakistan, signal more trouble ahead. But the warning signs could already be seen in the 1990s, as the long-term decline in the number of the world's poor and hungry stalled, and those numbers began to rise. The seeds for these challenges, both for good and ill, were planted along with the Green Revolution crops in the mid-1960s. Dramatic increases in food production and land productivity led to complacency about the remaining challenges ahead, resulting in reduced public sector investments in agricultural productivity. Population numbers continue their march towards a likely 9 billion by 2050, while higher incomes in hitherto poor countries will lead to increased demand, which in turn puts additional pressures on sustainable food production.

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) was developed at IFPRI at the beginning of the 1990s to address a lack of long-term vision and consensus among policy-makers and researchers about the actions that are necessary to feed the world in the future, reduce poverty, and protect the natural resource base. In 1993, these same long-term global concerns launched the 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment Initiative which created the opportunity for further development of the IMPACT model. In 1995 the first results using IMPACT were published as a 2020 Vision discussion paper: Global Food Projections to 2020: Implications for Investment (Rosegrant et al. 1995) in which the effects of population, investment, and trade scenarios on food security and nutrition status, especially in developing countries, were analyzed. IMPACT continues to serve as the basis for research examining the linkage between the production of key food commodities and food demand and security at the national level in the context of scenarios of future change. Studies focus on regional issues, commodity-level analyses, and cross-cutting thematic issues. IMPACT is also embedded in a variety of major global assessments to complement interdisciplinary, scenario-based work on the future of food supply and demand. The first comprehensive set of results for IMPACT were published in the book Global Food Projections to 2020 (Rosegrant et al. 2001). These projections—which were presented in 2001 at the IFPRI-sponsored conference in Bonn entitled: Sustainable Food Security for All by 2020—are presented with details on the demand system and other underlying data used in the projections work, and cover both global and regionally-focused projections. A complete list of the research published using the IMPACT modeling framework is provided in Appendix 1, including reports for international organizations, such as the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the FAO, and national governments. NOTE: The 2008 version is superceded by this 2012 version, and the 2008 version is retained for archival purposes and researching using this model should use the documentation from 2012. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; GRP38; HarvestChoice ; EPTD