In: Political science quarterly: a nonpartisan journal devoted to the study and analysis of government, politics and international affairs ; PSQ, Volume 4, Issue 4, p. 691
Abstract. This paper aims at presenting and comparing two methodologies adopted by the Emilia-Romagna region, northern Italy, to evaluate coastal vulnerability and to produce hazard and risk maps for coastal floods, in the framework of the EU Floods Directive. The first approach was adopted before the directive had been issued. Three scenarios of damage were designed (1-, 10-, 100-year return periods), produced by the concurrent occurrence of a storm, high surge levels and high-water spring tidal levels. Wave heights were used to calculate run-up values along 187 equally spaced profiles, and these were added to the tidal and atmospheric water level contributions. The result is a list of 10 vulnerability typologies. To satisfy the requirements of the directive, the Geological, Seismic and Soil Service (SGSS) recently implemented a different methodology that considers three scenarios (10-, 100- and > 100-year return periods) in terms of wave setup (not including run-up) plus the contribution of surge levels as well as the occurrence of high-water springs. The flooded area extension is determined by a series of computations that are part of a model built into ArcGIS®. The model uses as input a high-resolution lidar DEM that is then processed using a least-path cost analysis. Inundation maps are then overlapped with land use maps to produce risk maps. The qualitative validation and the comparison between the two methods are also presented, showing a positive agreement.
Military personnel of all armed forces receive multiple vaccinations and have been doing so since long ago, but relatively few studies have investigated the possible negative or positive interference of simultaneous vaccinations. As a contribution to fill this gap, we analyzed the response to the live trivalent measles/mumps/rubella (MMR), the inactivated hepatitis A virus (HAV), the inactivated trivalent polio, and the trivalent subunits influenza vaccines in two cohorts of Italian military personnel. The first cohort was represented by 108 students from military schools and the second by 72 soldiers engaged in a nine-month mission abroad. MMR and HAV vaccines had never been administered before, whereas inactivated polio was administered to adults primed at infancy with a live trivalent oral polio vaccine. Accordingly, nearly all subjects had baseline antibodies to polio types 1 and 3, but unexpectedly, anti-measles/-mumps/-rubella antibodies were present in 82%, 82%, and 73.5% of subjects, respectively (43% for all of the antigens). Finally, anti-HAV antibodies were detectable in 14% and anti-influenza (H1/H3/B) in 18% of the study population. At mine months post-vaccination, 92% of subjects had protective antibody levels for all MMR antigens, 96% for HAV, 69% for the three influenza antigens, and 100% for polio types 1 and 3. An inverse relationship between baseline and post-vaccination antibody levels was noticed with all the vaccines. An excellent vaccine immunogenicity, a calculated long antibody persistence, and apparent lack of vaccine interference were observed.
We previously examined the safety and immunogenicity of multiple vaccines administered to a military cohort, divided into two groups, the first composed of students at military schools, thus operating inside the national borders for at least 3 years, and the other formed of soldiers periodically engaged in a 9‐month‐long mission abroad (Lebanon). In the current study, we analyzed 112 individuals of this cohort, 50 pertaining to the first group and 62 to the second group, in order to examine the possible late appearance of side effects and to calculate the half‐life of the induced antibodies. Moreover, the possible involvement of B‐cell polyclonal activation as a pathogenetic mechanism for long term antibody persistence has even been explored. No late side effects, as far as autoimmunity and/or lymphoproliferation appearance, have been noticed. The long duration of the vaccine induced anti‐HAV antibodies has been confirmed, whereas the antibodies induced by tetravalent meningococcal polysaccharide vaccine have been found to persist above the threshold for putative protection for a longer time, and anti‐tetanus, diphtheria, and polio 1 and 3 for a shorter time than previously estimated. No signs of polyclonal B‐cell activation have been found, as a possible mechanism to understand the long antibody persistence.
Background Surgery is the main modality of cure for solid cancers and was prioritised to continue during COVID-19 outbreaks. This study aimed to identify immediate areas for system strengthening by comparing the delivery of elective cancer surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic in periods of lockdown versus light restriction. Methods This international, prospective, cohort study enrolled 20 006 adult (≥18 years) patients from 466 hospitals in 61 countries with 15 cancer types, who had a decision for curative surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic and were followed up until the point of surgery or cessation of follow-up (Aug 31, 2020). Average national Oxford COVID-19 Stringency Index scores were calculated to define the government response to COVID-19 for each patient for the period they awaited surgery, and classified into light restrictions (index 60). The primary outcome was the non-operation rate (defined as the proportion of patients who did not undergo planned surgery). Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to explore the associations between lockdowns and non-operation. Intervals from diagnosis to surgery were compared across COVID-19 government response index groups. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04384926. Findings Of eligible patients awaiting surgery, 2003 (10·0%) of 20 006 did not receive surgery after a median follow-up of 23 weeks (IQR 16–30), all of whom had a COVID-19-related reason given for non-operation. Light restrictions were associated with a 0·6% non-operation rate (26 of 4521), moderate lockdowns with a 5·5% rate (201 of 3646; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·77–0·84; p<0·0001), and full lockdowns with a 15·0% rate (1775 of 11 827; HR 0·51, 0·50–0·53; p<0·0001). In sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for SARS-CoV-2 case notification rates, moderate lockdowns (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·80–0·88; p<0·001), and full lockdowns (0·57, 0·54–0·60; p<0·001), remained independently associated with non-operation. Surgery beyond 12 weeks from diagnosis in patients without neoadjuvant therapy increased during lockdowns (374 [9·1%] of 4521 in light restrictions, 317 [10·4%] of 3646 in moderate lockdowns, 2001 [23·8%] of 11 827 in full lockdowns), although there were no differences in resectability rates observed with longer delays. Interpretation Cancer surgery systems worldwide were fragile to lockdowns, with one in seven patients who were in regions with full lockdowns not undergoing planned surgery and experiencing longer preoperative delays. Although short-term oncological outcomes were not compromised in those selected for surgery, delays and non-operations might lead to long-term reductions in survival. During current and future periods of societal restriction, the resilience of elective surgery systems requires strengthening, which might include protected elective surgical pathways and long-term investment in surge capacity for acute care during public health emergencies to protect elective staff and services. Funding National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit, Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, Medtronic, Sarcoma UK, The Urology Foundation, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research.
Background Surgery is the main modality of cure for solid cancers and was prioritised to continue during COVID-19 outbreaks. This study aimed to identify immediate areas for system strengthening by comparing the delivery of elective cancer surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic in periods of lockdown versus light restriction. Methods This international, prospective, cohort study enrolled 20 006 adult (≥18 years) patients from 466 hospitals in 61 countries with 15 cancer types, who had a decision for curative surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic and were followed up until the point of surgery or cessation of follow-up (Aug 31, 2020). Average national Oxford COVID-19 Stringency Index scores were calculated to define the government response to COVID-19 for each patient for the period they awaited surgery, and classified into light restrictions (index 60). The primary outcome was the non-operation rate (defined as the proportion of patients who did not undergo planned surgery). Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to explore the associations between lockdowns and non-operation. Intervals from diagnosis to surgery were compared across COVID-19 government response index groups. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04384926. Findings Of eligible patients awaiting surgery, 2003 (10·0%) of 20 006 did not receive surgery after a median follow-up of 23 weeks (IQR 16–30), all of whom had a COVID-19-related reason given for non-operation. Light restrictions were associated with a 0·6% non-operation rate (26 of 4521), moderate lockdowns with a 5·5% rate (201 of 3646; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·77–0·84; p<0·0001), and full lockdowns with a 15·0% rate (1775 of 11 827; HR 0·51, 0·50–0·53; p<0·0001). In sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for SARS-CoV-2 case notification rates, moderate lockdowns (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·80–0·88; p<0·001), and full lockdowns (0·57, 0·54–0·60; p<0·001), remained independently associated with non-operation. Surgery beyond 12 weeks from diagnosis in patients without neoadjuvant therapy increased during lockdowns (374 [9·1%] of 4521 in light restrictions, 317 [10·4%] of 3646 in moderate lockdowns, 2001 [23·8%] of 11827 in full lockdowns), although there were no differences in resectability rates observed with longer delays. Interpretation Cancer surgery systems worldwide were fragile to lockdowns, with one in seven patients who were in regions with full lockdowns not undergoing planned surgery and experiencing longer preoperative delays. Although short-term oncological outcomes were not compromised in those selected for surgery, delays and non-operations might lead to long-term reductions in survival. During current and future periods of societal restriction, the resilience of elective surgery systems requires strengthening, which might include protected elective surgical pathways and long- term investment in surge capacity for acute care during public health emergencies to protect elective staff and services. Funding National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit, Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, Medtronic, Sarcoma UK, The Urology Foundation, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research.