Search results

THIS PAPER EXPLORES SOME OF THE IMPLICATIONS FOR ECONOMETRIC PRACTICE OF THE PRINCIPLE THAT PEOPLE'S OBSERVED BEHAVIOR CHANGES WHEN THEIR CONSTRAINTS CHANGE. METHODS ARE DESCRIBED FOR INTERPRETING ECONOMIC TIME SERIES IN A MANNER CONSISTENT WITH THIS PRINCIPLE.

This collection of essays uses the lens of rational expectations theory to examine how governments anticipate and plan for inflation, and provides insight into the pioneering research for which Thomas Sargent was awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in economics. Rational expectations theory is based on the simple premise that people will use all the information available to them in making economic decisions, yet applying the theory to macroeconomics and econometrics is technically demanding. Here, Sargent engages with practical problems in economics in a less formal, noneconometric way, demonstrat

"This paper surveys recent issues in macroeconomics from the viewpoint of dynamic economic theory. The need to look beyond demand and supply curves and the insights that come from doing so are emphasized. Examples of issues in debt management and fiscal policy are analyzed"--Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis web site

"On our interpretation, real bills advocates favor unfettered intermediation, while their critics, who we call quantity theorists, favor legal restrictions on intermediation geared to separate "money" from "credit". We display examples of economies in which quantity-theory assertions about "money-supply" and price-level behavior under the real bills regime are valid. In particular, both the price level and an asset total that quantity theorists would identify as money fluctuate more under a real bills regime than under a regime with restrictions like those favored by quantity theorists. Despite this, the Pareto criterion does not support the quantity-theory position"--Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis web site

"This paper explores some of the implications for econometric practice of the principle that people's observed behavior will change when their constraints change. In dynamic contexts, a proper definition of people's constraints includes among them laws of motion that describe the evolution of the taxes they must pay and the prices of the goods that they buy and sell. Changes in agents' perceptions of these laws of motion (or constraints) will in general produce changes in the schedules that describe the choices they make as a function of the information that they possess. Until very recently, received dynamic econometric practice ignored this principle. The practice of dynamic econometrics should be changed so that it is consistent with the principle that people's rules of choice are influenced by their constraints. This is a substantial undertaking, and involves major adjustments in the ways that we formulate, estimate, and simulate econometric models"--Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis web site

"No abstract available"--Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis web site

"A dynamic linear demand schedule for labor is estimated and tested. The hypothesis of rational expectations and assumptions about the orders of the Markov processes governing technology impose over-identifying restrictions on a vector autoregression for straight-time employment, overtime employment, and the real wage. The model is estimated by the full information maximum likelihood method. The model is used as a vehicle for re-examining some of the paradoxical cyclical behavior of real wages described in the famous Dunlop-Tarshis-Keynes exchange"--Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis web site

"No abstract available"--Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis web site