Search results

Climate change damage (or, more correctly, impact) functions relate variations in temperature (or other climate variables) to economic impacts in various dimensions, and are at the basis of quantitative modeling exercises for the assessment of climate change policies. This document provides a summary of results from a series of meta-analyses aimed at estimating parameters for six specific damage functions, referring to: sea level rise, agricultural productivity, heat effects on labor productivity, human health, tourism flows, and households' energy demand. All parameters of the damage functions are estimated for each of the 140 countries and regions in version 9 of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP 9) Data Base. To illustrate the salient characteristics of the estimates, the change in real gross domestic product is approximated for the different effects, in all regions, corresponding to an increase in average temperature of +3°C. After considering the overall impact, the paper highlights which factor is the most significant one in each country, and elaborates on the distributional consequences of climate change. ; Climate change damage (or, more correctly, impact) functions relate variations in temperature (or other climate variables) to economic impacts in various dimensions, and are at the basis of quantitative modeling exercises for the assessment of climate change policies. This document provides a summary of results from a series of meta-analyses aimed at estimating parameters for six specific damage functions, referring to: sea level rise, agricultural productivity, heat effects on labor productivity, human health, tourism flows, and households' energy demand. All parameters of the damage functions are estimated for each of the 140 countries and regions in version 9 of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP 9) Data Base. To illustrate the salient characteristics of the estimates, the change in real gross domestic product is approximated for the different effects, in all regions, corresponding to an increase in average temperature of + 3 degrees C. After considering the overall impact, the paper highlights which factor is the most significant one in each country, and elaborates on the distributional consequences of climate change.

The present study develops an integrated assessment model (IAM) for food security under climate change for South Asia. For IAM, initially, an econometric model is estimated that identifies the impact of climate change on crop yields, using the historical relationships between temperature, precipitation, and the production of cereals. Subsequently, future projections have been collected for temperature and precipitation from climate models of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and the previous econometric model is applied to obtain the implied future cereal yields changes. Then, the yield variations are fed into a multiregional Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, calibrated to the GTAP 9 database, taking the form of decreases in factor-augmenting productivity of the grains sector. Further, the present study evaluates the effects of climate change on an individual South Asian country. The results indicate that change in climate decreases food production, increases food prices, decreases food consumption, and thus affects the welfare. Trade and fiscal policy responses are investigated to combat the problem of food security. It is revealed that these two policies fail to compensate climate change damage in all the selected South Asian countries.

Greenhouse gas emissions cause climate change, and agriculture is the most vulnerable sector. Farmers do have some capability to adapt to changing weather and climate, but this capability is contingent on many factors, including geographical and socioeconomic conditions. Assessing the actual adaptation potential in the agricultural sector is therefore an empirical issue, to which this paper contributes by presenting a study examining the impacts of climate change on cereal yields in 55 developing and developed countries, using data from 1991 to 2015. The results indicate that cereal yields are affected in all regions by changes in temperature and precipitation, with significant differences in certain macro-regions in the world. In Southern Asia and Central Africa, farmers fail to adapt to climate change. The findings suggest that the world should focus more on enhancing adaptive capacity to moderate potential damage and on coping with the consequences of climate change.

Halving per capita food waste and reducing food losses along production and supply chains is one of the objectives fixed by the United Nations among the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study employs a system-wide modelling approach, to simulate economic impacts of households' food waste reduction in 2030, focusing on the European Union. The paper provides market, food security, biophysical and environmental indicators resulting from food commodity specific waste reductions by EU households. The scenarios explicitly account for associated costs paid by food manufacturers derived from adjustments in the packaging, labelling and logistics. The model shows, under a series of market assumptions, a possible increase in household savings, a fall in agri-food production and a minor negative macroeconomic impact due to household food waste reductions. On the other hand, the effects on environmental indicators such as land usage, GHG emissions and water abstraction are positive. Future research on several aspects of the food waste topic is needed to better integrate all economic aspects. ; Published

Halving per capita food waste and reducing food losses along production and supply chains is one of the objectives fixed by the United Nations among the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study employs a system-wide modelling approach, to simulate economic impacts of households' food waste reduction in 2030, focusing on the European Union. The paper provides market, food security, biophysical and environmental indicators resulting from food commodity specific waste reductions by EU households. The scenarios explicitly account for associated costs paid by food manufacturers derived from adjustments in the packaging, labelling and logistics. The model shows, under a series of market assumptions, a possible increase in household savings, a fall in agri-food production and a minor negative macroeconomic impact due to household food waste reductions. On the other hand, the effects on environmental indicators such as land usage, GHG emissions and water abstraction are positive. Future research on several aspects of the food waste topic is needed to better integrate all economic aspects.