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37 Experten aus Politikwissenschaft, Psychologie, Soziologie und Medizin leisten eine Bestandsaufnahme politisch-psychologischer Forschung in den Themenfeldern "Persönlichkeit und Politik", "Emotionen, Affekte & Politik", "Gruppenpsychologie", "Informationsverarbeitung" und "Politische Theorie". Kleinster gemeinsamer Nenner der politisch-psychologischen Forschungsperspektive ist das Akteurskonzept des homo psychologicus, dessen (politisches) Handeln von Kognitionen, Eigenschaften, Motivationen und Emotionen beeinflusst wird. Werden attraktive Bundestagskandidaten gewählt? Begünstigt eine narzisstische Persönlichkeitsprägung von Staatsoberhäuptern die (zwischenstaatliche) Konflikteskalation? Stärkt der vermehrte Kontakt zu anderen europäischen Staatsbürgern die Identifizierung mit Europa?Antworten auf solche spannenden Fragen liefern die 21 Beiträge.Mit Beiträgen von:Kathrin Ackermann, Benedikt Backhaus, Hanja Blendin, Jan Eric Blumenstiel, Klaus Brummer, Hans-Joachim Busch, Thorsten Faas, Sven-Eric Fikenscher, Cornelia Frank, Markus Freitag, Konstantin Leonardo Gavras, Nathalie Giger, Sascha Huber, Lena Jaschob, David Johann, Markus Klein, Christian Kandler, Johannes Marx, Sabrina Jasmin Mayer, Anja Mays, Marco Meyer, Dieter Ohr, Sünje Paasch-Colberg, Maria Preißinger, Dorothea Prell, Tino Prell, Ulrich Rosar, Gerald Schneider, Harald Schoen, Sven Stadtmüller, Bernhard Stahl und Marco Steenbergen, Markus Steinbrecher, Florian Stöckel, Kathrin Thomas, Christine Tiefensee, Reinhard Wolf

Party attachments shape perceptions of the political context, but neither are they fixed nor do they completely blind supporters to political reality. When severe challenges like the European sovereign debt or refugee crises force parties to change their policies or make formerly inconsequential positions salient, party identifiers may find their policy preferences at odds with their party identification. This may lead them to adopt their party's position. However, if inconsistent positions are sufficiently important, party identifiers may also loosen their party ties. The chapter uses survey data from the GLES campaign panels 2009-2017 to show how these crises prompted identifiers to follow the party line in some cases but more often weakened or even eroded party attachments among supporters with strong issue positions. In effect, the Euro crisis and, in particular, the refugee crisis appears to have contributed to an issue-based reshuffling of the partisan balance in German politics.

Party attachments shape perceptions of the political context, but neither are they fixed nor do they completely blind supporters to the political reality. When severe societal challenges such as the European debt or refugee crises force parties to change their policies or make formerly inconsequential positions salient and thus relevant, party identifiers may find their policy preferences at odds with their party identification. This may lead party supporters to adopt their party's position. However, if the inconsistent position is sufficiently important, party identifiers may also loosen the ties to their party. We use individual-level data from the GLES campaign panels 2009-2017 to show how these crises have prompted identifiers to follow the party line in some cases, but have even more often weakened or even eroded party attachments among supporters who hold strong positions. In effect, the European debt crisis and particularly the European refugee crisis appear to have contributed to an issue-based reshuffling of the partisan balance in German politics.

In early 2017, after the nomination of Martin Schulz as candidate for chancellor, the SPD experienced a rapid surge in public support as measured in public opinion polls. Yet, the upward trend proved short-lived and the SPD ended up with the worst election result since 1949. Using data from a multi-wave panel survey, this analysis examines the voting trajectories of eight thousand German citizens over the course of one year in order to investigate the processes underlying the so called 'Schulz effect'. The voter trajectories show that the surge and decline of public support for the SPD was accompanied by some reshuffling in the composition of its electorate. Moreover, different explanations of the party's swaying in the polls are tested, showing that the SPD achieved the activation of dormant party identifiers but attracted and then lost other voters with diverse characteristics and policy preferences.

Cover -- 1. Introduction -- 1.1 Perspectives on voting behavior in the 2009 and 2013 elections -- 1.2 Theoretical framework, model, and expectations -- 1.3 Data and methodology -- 1.4 Plan of the book -- 2. How voters perceived the campaigns -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Exposure to campaign communication -- 2.3 Selectivity of campaign exposure -- 2.4 Evaluations of campaign stimuli and their selectivity -- 2.5 Conclusion -- 3. The campaign dynamics of participatory and partisan attitudes -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Participatory attitudes -- 3.3 Partisan attitudes -- 3.3.1 Introduction -- 3.3.2 Issue attitudes -- 3.3.3 Evaluations of government performance -- 3.3.4 Candidate attitudes -- 3.3.5 Coalition preferences -- 3.4 Conclusion -- 4. The campaign dynamics of turnout and party choice -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Turnout -- 4.3 Vote choice -- 4.4 Conclusion -- 5. Campaign effects on turnout at the individual level -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Methodology -- 5.3 Effects of campaign communication and participatory attitudes on turnout -- 5.4 Conclusion -- 6. Campaign effects on party choice at the individual level -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Model, expectations, and analytical strategy -- 6.2.1 Model and expectations -- 6.2.2 Analytical strategy -- 6.3 Effects of partisan attitudes on vote choice -- 6.4 Effects of campaign stimuli on vote choice -- 6.5 Conclusion -- 7. Conclusion -- References -- Appendix A: Question wording and construction of variables -- Political behavior -- Predispositions -- Participatory and partisan attitudes -- Communication and campaign stimuli -- Variables that capture campaign trajectories of turnout: -- Variables that capture campaign trajectories of party choice: -- Appendix B: Treatment of missing data by design for the fixed effects-models in Chapters 5 and 6 -- Appendix C: Additional tables

Over the past half century, the behavior of German voters has changed profoundly. After a long period of stability, elections have dramatically altered their character - at first rather gradually, but during the past decade at an accelerated speed. Voters' decision-making has become much more volatile, rendering election outcomes less predictable. The long-term process of party system fragmentation that had already been going on for a while intensified sharply. A particularly conspicuous outcome of this period of turbulent electoral politics was the termination of Germany's exceptionality as one of the few European countries without a strong right-wing populist party. The chapter traces this development in detail. It identifies three distinctive phases of party system development: 1949 to 1976, 1980 to 2005, and 2009 to 2017. The topoi of realignment and dealignment are evoked as key concepts for interpreting the trends that have become increasingly visible since the second phase.

This concluding chapter discusses changing German voters' behavior in the context of changing parties, campaigns, and media during the period of its hitherto most dramatically increased fluidity at the 2009, 2013, and 2017 federal elections. It summarizes the book's findings on three questions: How did the turbulences that increasingly characterize German electoral politics come about? How did they in turn condition voters' decision-making? How were electoral attitudes and choices affected by situational factors that pertained to the specifics of particular elections? Discussing the consequences of these developments the chapter finds that the ideological and affective polarization of the party system has increased, leading to a dualistic structure that pits the right-wing populist AfD against all other parties. It also shows how the formation of governments under the German parliamentary system of governance gets increasingly difficult. The chapter closes with speculations about the prospects of electoral politics in Germany.

Over the past half century, the behavior of German voters has changed profoundly—at first rather gradually but during the last decade at accelerated speed. Electoral decision-making has become much more volatile, rendering election outcomes less predictable. Party system fragmentation intensified sharply. The success of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) put an end to Germany's exceptionality as one of the few European countries without a strong right-wing populist party. Utilizing a wide range of data compiled by the German Longitudinal Election Study, the book examines changing voters' behavior in the context of changing parties, campaigns, and media during the period of its hitherto most dramatically increased fluidity at the 2009, 2013, and 2017 federal elections. Guided by the notions of realignment and dealignment, the study addresses three questions: How did the turbulences that increasingly characterize German electoral politics come about? How did they in turn condition voters' decision-making? How were voters' attitudes and choices affected by situational factors that pertained to the specifics of particular elections? The book demonstrates how traditional cleavages lost their grip on voters and a new socio-cultural line of conflict became the dominant axis of party competition. A series of major crises, but also programmatic shifts of the established parties promoted this development. It led to a segmentation of the party system that pits the right-wing populist AfD against the traditional parties. The book also demonstrates the relevance of coalition preferences, candidate images as well as media and campaign effects for voters' attitudes, beliefs, and preferences.

Over the past half century, the behavior of German voters has changed profoundly—at first rather gradually but during the last decade at accelerated speed. Electoral decision-making has become much more volatile, rendering election outcomes less predictable. Party system fragmentation intensified sharply. The success of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) put an end to Germany's exceptionality as one of the few European countries without a strong right-wing populist party. Utilizing a wide range of data compiled by the German Longitudinal Election Study, the book examines changing voters' behavior in the context of changing parties, campaigns, and media during the period of its hitherto most dramatically increased fluidity at the 2009, 2013, and 2017 federal elections. Guided by the notions of realignment and dealignment, the study addresses three questions: How did the turbulences that increasingly characterize German electoral politics come about? How did they in turn condition voters' decision-making? How were voters' attitudes and choices affected by situational factors that pertained to the specifics of particular elections? The book demonstrates how traditional cleavages lost their grip on voters and a new socio-cultural line of conflict became the dominant axis of party competition. A series of major crises, but also programmatic shifts of the established parties promoted this development. It led to a segmentation of the party system that pits the right-wing populist AfD against the traditional parties. The book also demonstrates the relevance of coalition preferences, candidate images as well as media and campaign effects for voters' attitudes, beliefs, and preferences.

Over the past half century, the behavior of German voters has changed profoundly - at first rather gradually but during the last decade at accelerated speed. Electoral decision-making has become much more volatile, rendering election outcomes less predictable. Party system fragmentation intensified sharply. The success of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) put an end to Germany's exceptionality as one of the few European countries without a strong right-wing populist party. Utilizing a wide range of data compiled by the German Longitudinal Election Study, the book examines changing voters' behavior in the context of changing parties, campaigns, and media during the period of its hitherto most dramatically increased fluidity at the 2009, 2013, and 2017 federal elections. Guided by the notions of realignment and dealignment, the study addresses three questions: How did the turbulences that increasingly characterize German electoral politics come about? How did they in turn condition voters' decision-making? How were voters' attitudes and choices affected by situational factors that pertained to the specifics of particular elections? The book demonstrates how traditional cleavages lost their grip on voters and a new socio-cultural line of conflict became the dominant axis of party competition. A series of major crises, but also programmatic shifts of the established parties promoted this development. It led to a segmentation of the party system that pits the right-wing populist AfD against the traditional parties. The book also demonstrates the relevance of coalition preferences, candidate images as well as media and campaign effects for voters' attitudes, beliefs, and preferences.