Search results

"Dating business cycles entails ascertaining economy-wide turning points. Broadly speaking, there are two approaches in the literature. The first approach, which dates to Burns and Mitchell (1946), is to identify turning points individually in a large number of series, then to look for a common date that could be called an aggregate turning point. The second approach, which has been the focus of more recent academic and applied work, is to look for turning points in a few, or just one, aggregate. This paper examines these two approaches to the identification of turning points. We provide a nonparametric definition of a turning point (an estimand) based on a population of time series. This leads to estimators of turning points, sampling distributions, and standard errors for turning points based on a sample of series. We consider both simple random sampling and stratified sampling. The empirical part of the analysis is based on a data set of 270 disaggregated monthly real economic time series for the U.S., 1959-2010"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site

The hypothesis that the fear of foreclosure of farm mortgages provided an important impetus to American agrarian reform movements of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries is reconsidered. This hypothesis is consistent with the observation that farm income, although volatile, on average improved over this period.Indeed, despite low average foreclosure rates, the temporary effects of foreclosures on specific regions in which there was unrest appears to have been dramatic. An examination of indebtedness data and measures of unrest both for the period of the Alliance movement and for the era of the Nonpartisan League in North Dakota appears to support the hypothesis linking the fear of foreclosure to agrarian unrest.