IN THE REFERENDUM IN BRITAIN IN JULY 1975 ON WHETHER SHE COULD STAY IN THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES, ONE OF THE PRINCIPAL ARGUMENTS AGAINST CONTINUED MEMBERSHIP WAS THE LOSS OF PARLIAMENTARY SOVEREIGNTY INVOLVED. FEAR IN THIS CONNECTION AROSE LARGELY FROM THE FACT THAT COMMUNITY LEGISLATION IS "SELF-ENFORCING"; IE. IT TAKES EFFECT WITHOUT THE INTERVENTION OF NATIONAL LEGISLATURES.
Past research proposed that it is possible to forecast cargo demand using time series models and that there exists potential cost savings in the way that Civilian Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF) is used for cargo airlift. United States Transportation Command (USTRANSCOM) performs annual fixed-buys of CRAF to support airlift needs. Forecasted cargo demand would allow for reasonably accurate cargo projections vs. the current expected value estimation. Accurate forecasting allows for greater fixed-buys, further incentivizing CRAF airlines as well as reducing the number of additional aircraft purchases during the quarterly and monthly buys. Multiple forecasting models are constructed and the results compared. A Monte Carlo simulation using a discrete pallet destinations distribution and a discrete pallet port arrival date distribution (based on historical data) outputs a month of projected pallet weights (with date and destination) that are equivalent to the forecasted cargo amount. The simulated pallets are then used in a heuristic cargo loading algorithm. The loading algorithm places cargo onto available aircraft (based on real schedules) given the date and the destination and outputs statistics based on the aircraft ton and pallet utilization as well as number of aircraft types used and the total cost of the projected airlift schedule. A technical approach to the operational planning of cargo airlift could provide significant cost savings or could provide an alternative planning approach changing the future of USTRANSCOM operations.
Despite the vast amount of literature concerned with the Attlee government's management of the British Empire, there are still a number of key knowledge gaps, not least concerning Anglo-Iranian relations during this period. Although generally perceived as an independent nation, this thesis argues that Iran should be considered part of the informal empire, thanks to the disproportionate influence wielded there by the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. The company, a state owned, but privately managed organisation, was the leading source of taxes and foreign currency for the Iranian Exchequer and supplied not only jobs, but also roads, housing and even policing through its private security force. At the end of the Second World War it seemed to be in an insurmountable position: a totem of informal domination. Indeed, the vast Abadan oil refinery was Britain's largest single overseas asset. However, within just six years the oil company had been nationalised and Britain's informal hold in Iran destroyed. This thesis aims to outline why this happened and to argue that British power collapsed due to a noxious mixture of orientalism and mismanagement within both the government and the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company itself. It will argue that the British failed to understand the Iranian political system or Iranian society and applied wrongheaded policies with little by way of a long-term vision. As economic and political conditions in Iran deteriorated, the Foreign Office found it impossible to align the oil company's goals with its own, exacerbating fissures between them. At the root of the crisis was a clash between Iranian nationalism and the Attlee government's seemingly irreconcilable goals of building a New Jerusalem at home while simultaneously raising living standards across the empire. Watching from the sidelines, the United States, Britain's most important ally, grew increasingly concerned that unrest in Iran could lead to communism, necessitating that they become ever more embroiled in an area with which they had few identifiable interests. Utilising primary research carried out in public and private archives on both sides of the Atlantic, plus a wide range of secondary materials, this thesis provides new insights into the collapse of British power in Iran and a valuable contribution to wider arguments as to the success of the Attlee government's foreign policy. Particular emphasis is given to discussing the plurality of empire, the interplay between diplomatic and non-diplomatic actors operating at its fringes and the challenges of fusing the interests of the public and private sectors.
