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REPLYING TO D.T. CUNDY'S ARTICLE IN THE SAME ISSUE, THE AUTHOR ARGUES THAT FOR POLITICAL SCIENTISTS VARIABLES LIKE PARENTAL AFFECT ARE OF LITTLE CONCERN ON 2 SYSTEMS LEVEL. BOTH CUNDY'S AND THE AUTHORS MODELS ARE TESTED WITH THE JENNINGS (1965) SOCIALIZATION DATA

B. Talbot Coram's attempt (1998) to demonstrate the importance of luck to social analysis is supported on two points about matters of chance: (1) popular conceptions of luck are shaped by misguided notions of how chance really works & (2) rather than evening out, chance often has cumulative effects in the long run. People often reason very badly about luck & respond emotionally to issues of chance. Moreover, these psychological responses often have a very important effect on social interactions. It is suggested that researchers have ignored luck in the past because they share in the general view that, in the long run, luck tends to even out. Coram & others show that this is not the case, & that issues of luck demand more systematic social analysis. 1 Appendix, 18 References. D. Ryfe

Meaningful electoral competition was introduced into the Soviet Union beginning with the all-union elections of March 1989. Based on a survey representative of the Moscow oblast and a survey representative of the European USSR conducted in the spring of 1990, mass support for the institution of competitive elections is analyzed. Using the modernization approach to explaining regime liberalization, the author investigates the levels of this support, the extent to which it is diffuse versus instrumental, and analyzes relationships between support for competitive elections and key demographic and attitudinal indicators. Support for elections at the time of the survey was high, with a substantial diffuse component. In addition, those most enthusiastic about electoral competition are groups whose support is generally thought to be crucial for successful transitions from authoritarian rule.

Data from a 3-wave panel of telephone interviews conducted in Tex in 1982 (N = 531 usable responses) are used to examine change & stability in the popularity of the US president. By survey standards, the item is found to be quite reliable, approaching the reliability of party identification. Change in the item can be predicted using measures of political interest & sophistication, partisanship, & the strength of presidential approval or disapproval. 3 Tables, 10 References. Modified AA

Considered are substantive & methodological issues in assessing agent influence on individual political attitudes. From a substantive perspective, the effect of perceptual accuracy, issue salience, & parent-peer orientation on attitude relationships among adolescents, parents, & peers is analyzed by means of interviews in 1972 with 183 new high school graduates, 322 parents, & 155 best friends, residents of Iowa City, Iowa. These variables are found to affect relationships in a similar fashion, but their marginal distributions generally lead to higher correlations between adolescents & parents than between adolescents & peers. From a methodological perspective, the link between statistical techniques for measuring paired comparisons & conceptions of influence is analyzed. It is argued that parents & peers can have divergent political attitudes, yet both influence the individual in the same direction. 7 Tables. Modified HA.