Balanced, practical risk management for post - financial crisis institutionsFundamentals of Risk Management fills a critical gap left by existing risk management texts. Instead of focusing only on quantitative risk analysis or only on institutional risk management, this book takes a comprehensive approach. The disasters of the recent financial crisis taught us that managing risk is both an art and a science, and it is critical for practitioners to understand how individual risks are integrated at the enterprise level.This book is the only resource of its kind to introduce all of the key risk management concepts in a cohesive case study spanning each chapter. A hypothetical bank drawn from elements of several real world institutions serves as a backdrop for topics from credit risk and operational risk to understanding big-picture risk exposure. You will be able to see exactly how each rigorous concept is applied in actual risk management contexts. Fundamentals of Risk Management includes: Supplemental Excel-based Visual Basic (VBA) modules, so you can interact directly with risk models Clear explanations of the importance of risk management in preventing financial disasters Real world examples and lessons learned from past crises Risk policies, infrastructure, and activities that balance limited quantitative models This book provides the element of hands-on application necessary to put enterprise risk management into effective practice. The very best risk managers rely on a balanced approach that leverages every aspect of financial operations for an integrative risk management strategy. With Fundamentals of Risk Management, you can identify and control risk at an expert level.
In: Iran and the Caucasus: research papers from the Caucasian Centre for Iranian Studies = Iran i kavkaz : trudy Kavkazskogo e͏̈tìsentra iranistiki, Volume 19, Issue 4, p. 335-342
The paper deals with the etymology and dialectology of Turkic armut, Persian armud 'pear'. The interrelations of these phytonymical families were treated a few years ago by Prof. Uwe Bläsing who considered the Turkic words borrowed from a Middle Iranian language (viz. Pahlavi, because of some isolated attestation in this language), but also the Iranian words probably borrowed from a third (unknown) language of the Irano-Caucasian area. On the basis of an extensive areal study (with original materials from the archive of the Balochi Etymological Dictionary Project, L'Orientale University, Naples) the author argues for a back dating of the Iranian attestations, and the preservation in many modern Iranian dialects of a lexical type believed to be isolated in Middle Persian.
In: Iran and the Caucasus: research papers from the Caucasian Centre for Iranian Studies = Iran i kavkaz : trudy Kavkazskogo e͏̈tìsentra iranistiki, Volume 17, Issue 1, p. 1-8
The paper is an updated version of the Keynote speech delivered at the opening ceremony of the International Conference on the "Autochtonous Peoples of the Caucasian-Caspian Region" (Yerevan State University, 5 October 2012), and emphasises the role of the Caucasus cultures as a whole since pre-Achaemenid times to modern times, conceived as a bridge between the Iranian world and Europe.
Obituary for Maurizio Tosi the friend, the colleague, the scholar inextricably linked. Complex and contradictory his life, in which existential aspects have always mixed with academic, professional and political ones. His friendship, often awkward, but always loyal, has been an essential reference point for many of us, and for the colleagues of all the Universities where he taught, including Università degli Studi di Napoli "L'Orientale".
The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to perform a pest categorisation for Ceratocystis fimbriata f. sp. platani Walter, the fungal pathogen responsible for the "canker stain" disease of plane trees. C. fimbriata f. sp. platani is listed in Annex IIAII of Directive 2000/29/EC. Recently, the pathogen has been reclassified as Ceratocystis platani (Walter) Engelbrecht et Harrington, based on intersterility studies, progeny analysis and the morphology of isolates from different hosts. C. platani is a single taxonomic entity and sensitive and reliable methods are available for its detection and differentiation from other related fungal species. The only known hosts are Platanus occidentalis, Platanus orientalis and Platanus × acerifolia. The last two plane species are the most susceptible to C. platani and are widely grown in most of the European Union Member States. C. platani is a wound pathogen causing canker and wilt and eventually death of plane trees. It is currently present in part of the risk assessment area (Greece, France, Italy), where it causes serious consequences on P. orientalis and P. × acerifolia trees grown in natural stands, coppices, and public and private gardens in both rural and urban environments. There are no obvious ecological/climatic factors limiting the potential establishment and spread of the pathogen in the non-infested part of the risk assessment area where hosts are present. C. platani has multiple natural and human-assisted means of spread, including waterways, root anastomosis, contaminated pruning tools, insects, contaminated insect frass and sawdust. The movement of infected host plants for planting and wood is considered to be responsible for the introduction of the pathogen into new areas. Cultural practices and sanitary and chemical measures applied in the infested areas may reduce inoculum sources but they cannot eliminate the pathogen. Plane accessions resistant to C. platani are available in the European market.
ISI Document Delivery No.: 685VR Times Cited: 5 Cited Reference Count: 43 Cited References: Alvarez-Salgado XA, 2001, PROG OCEANOGR, V51, P321, DOI 10.1016/S0079-6611(01)00073-8 Alvarez-Salgado XA, 2007, LIMNOL OCEANOGR, V52, P1287 BARTH JA, 1989, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V94, P10857, DOI 10.1029/JC094iC08p10857 BARTH JA, 1989, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V94, P10844, DOI 10.1029/JC094iC08p10844 Barton ED, 2004, PROG OCEANOGR, V62, P71, DOI 10.1016/j.pocean.2004.07.003 Barton ED, 2001, PROG OCEANOGR, V51, P249, DOI 10.1016/S0079-6611(01)00069-6 Batteen ML, 1997, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V102, P985, DOI 10.1029/96JC02803 Batteen ML, 2007, OCEAN MODEL, V18, P1, DOI 10.1016/j.ocemod.2007.02.006 BLECK R, 1990, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V95, P3273, DOI 10.1029/JC095iC03p03273 BLECK R, 1992, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V22, P1486, DOI 10.1175/1520-0485(1992)0222.0.CO;2 BLECK R, 1986, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V91, P7611, DOI 10.1029/JC091iC06p07611 BRETHERT.FP, 1966, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V92, P325, DOI 10.1002/qj.49709239302 BRINK KH, 1983, PROG OCEANOGR, V12, P223, DOI 10.1016/0079-6611(83)90009-5 Capet XJ, 2004, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V34, P1400, DOI 10.1175/1520-0485(2004)0342.0.CO;2 CHARNEY JG, 1962, J ATMOS SCI, V19, P159, DOI 10.1175/1520-0469(1962)0192.0.CO;2 DEWEY RK, 1991, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V96, P14885, DOI 10.1029/91JC00944 FLAMENT P, 1985, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V90, P1765, DOI 10.1029/JC090iC06p11765 HAIDVOGEL DB, 1991, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V96, P15017, DOI 10.1029/91JC00943 HAYNES R, 1993, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V98, P22681, DOI 10.1029/93JC02016 Herbette S, 2005, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V35, P2012, DOI 10.1175/JPO2809.1 Herbette S, 2003, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V33, P1664, DOI 10.1175/2382.1 HOSKINS BJ, 1985, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V111, P877, DOI 10.1256/smsqj.47001 IKEDA M, 1981, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V11, P526, DOI 10.1175/1520-0485(1981)0112.0.CO;2 Ikeda M., 1989, Journal of Physical Oceanography, V19, DOI 10.1175/1520-0485(1989)0192.0.CO;2 KILLWORTH PD, 1980, DYNAM ATMOS OCEANS, V4, P143, DOI 10.1016/0377-0265(80)90013-5 Kostianoy AG, 1996, J MARINE SYST, V7, P349, DOI 10.1016/0924-7963(95)00029-1 Marchesiello P, 2003, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V33, P753, DOI 10.1175/1520-0485(2003)332.0.CO;2 MCINTYRE ME, 1990, J FLUID MECH, V212, P403, DOI 10.1017/S0022112090002038 MCWILLIAMS JC, 1980, J ATMOS SCI, V37, P1657, DOI 10.1175/1520-0469(1980)0372.0.CO;2 Morel Y, 2001, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V31, P2280, DOI 10.1175/1520-0485(2001)0312.0.CO;2 Morel YG, 2006, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V36, P875, DOI 10.1175/JPO2899.1 Navarro-Perez E, 1998, S AFR J MARINE SCI, V19, P61 Roed LP, 1999, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V104, P29817, DOI 10.1029/1999JC900175 Rossi V, 2010, OCEAN MODEL, V31, P51, DOI 10.1016/j.ocemod.2009.10.002 Sanchez RF, 2008, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V113, DOI 10.1029/2007JC004430 Shi XB, 1999, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V29, P948, DOI 10.1175/1520-0485(1999)0292.0.CO;2 Stern ME, 2000, J MAR RES, V58, P269, DOI 10.1357/002224000321511160 Strub T. P., 1991, J GEOPHYS RES, V96, P14 Thomas LN, 2005, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V35, P2457, DOI 10.1175/JPO2830.1 VERRON J, 1985, J FLUID MECH, V154, P231, DOI 10.1017/S0022112085001501 VIERA F, 1994, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V24, P1433, DOI 10.1175/1520-0485(1994)0242.0.CO;2 WASHBURN L, 1988, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V18, P1075, DOI 10.1175/1520-0485(1988)0182.0.CO;2 Winther NG, 2007, J MARINE SYST, V67, P31, DOI 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2006.08.004 Meunier, T. Rossi, V. Morel, Y. Carton, X. DGA [PEA 012401]; Spanish National Government [CTM2007-66408-C02/MAR] Part of this study has been conducted in the frame of the MOUTON project funded by DGA (PEA 012401) and the CAIBEX project (CTM2007-66408-C02/MAR) funded by the Spanish National Government. T.M. thanks Pr E.D. Barton for the useful discussions and the calculation time supplied at IIM-CSIC (Spain). V.R. is supported by a PhD grant from DGA. Satellite images where provided by Joel Sudre at LEGOS. 5 ELSEVIER SCI LTD OXFORD OCEAN MODEL ; We investigate the influence of bottom topography on the formation and trapping of long upwelling filaments using a 2-layer shallow water model on the f-plane. A wind forced along-shore current, associated with coastal upwelling along a vertical wall, encounters a promontory of finite width and length, perpendicular to the coast. In the lower layer, topographic eddies form, which are shown to drive the formation of a filament on the front. Indeed, as the upwelling current and front develop along the coast, the along shore flow crosses the promontory, re-arranging the potential vorticity structure and generating intense vortical structures: water columns with high potential vorticity initially localized upon the promontory are advected into the deep ocean, forming cyclonic eddies, while water columns from the deep ocean with low potential vorticity climb on the topography forming a trapped anticyclonic circulation. These topographic eddies interact with the upper layer upwelling front and form an elongated, trapped and narrow filament. Sensitivity tests are then carried out and it is shown that: baroclinic instability of the front does not play a major role on the formation of long trapped filaments; increasing the duration of the wind forcing increases the upwelling current and limits the offshore growth of the filament; modifying the promontory characteristics (width, length, height and slopes) has strong impact on the filament evolution, sometimes leading to a multipolarisation of the potential vorticity anomaly structure which results in much more complicated patterns in the upper layer (numerous shorter and less coherent filaments). This shows that only specific promontory shapes can lead to the formation of well defined filaments; adding bottom friction introduces a slight generation of potential vorticity in the bottom layer over the promontory, but does not significantly alter significantly the formation of the filament along the outcropped front in the present configuration; modifying the stratification characteristics, in particular the density jump between the layers, has only a weak influence on the dynamics of topographic eddies and on filament formation; the influence of capes is also modest in our simulations, showing that topography plays the major role in the formation of long and trapped upwelling filaments.
In the next years, the upcoming emission legislations are expected to introduce further restrictions on the admittable level of pollutants from vehicles measured on homologation cycles and real drive tests. In this context, the strict control of pollutant emissions at the cold start will become a crucial point to comply with the new regulation standards. This will necessarily require the implementation of novel strategies to speed-up the light-off of the reactions occurring in the after-treatment system, since the cold start conditions are the most critical one for cumulative emissions. Among the different possible technological solutions, this paper focuses on the evaluation of the potential of a burner system, which is activated before the engine start. The hypothetical burner exploits the lean combustion of an air-gasoline mixture to generate a high temperature gas stream which is directed to the catalyst section promoting a fast heating of the substrate. In this work, an experimental test bench has been adopted to characterize the thermal transient of the after-treatment system when the burner-like system is activated, monitoring the temperature of the gas flow and the temperature of the metallic walls at different locations. Moreover, a CFD model has been developed to investigate the light-off of the reactions during the initial operation of the burner and the subsequent start of the engine. The model, developed on the basis of the OpenFOAM code, resorts to a multi-region approach, where different meshes are employed to describe the fluid domain and the solid regions, namely the catalytic porous substrates and the metallic walls constituting pipes and canning. Specific submodels are implemented to consider flow resistance, heat transfer, mass transfer and catalytic reactions occurring in the catalyst region. The CFD framework has been initially validated on the experimental data acquired on the test bench. The methodology has been then applied to the preliminary analysis of the catalyst light-off at engine ...
A new method for pest risk assessment and the identification and evaluation of risk‐reducing options is currently under development by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Plant Health Panel. The draft method has been tested on pests of concern to the European Union (EU). The method is adaptable and can focus either on all the steps and sub‐steps of the assessment process or on specific parts if necessary. It is based on assessing changes in pest population abundance as the major driver of the impact on cultivated plants and on the environment. Like other pest risk assessment systems the method asks questions about the likelihood and magnitude of factors that contribute to risk. Responses can be based on data or expert judgment. Crucially, the approach is quantitative, and it captures uncertainty through the provision by risk assessors of quantile estimates of the probability distributions for the assessed variables and parameters. The assessment is based on comparisons between different scenarios, and the method integrates risk‐reducing options where they apply to a scenario, for example current regulation against a scenario where risk‐reducing options are not applied. A strategy has been developed to communicate the results of the risk assessment in a clear, comparable and transparent way, with the aim of providing the requestor of the risk assessment with a useful answer to the question(s) posed to the EFSA Plant Health Panel. The method has been applied to four case studies, two fungi, Ceratocystis platani and Cryphonectria parasitica, the nematode Ditylenchus destructor and the Grapevine flavescence dorée phytoplasma. Selected results from these case studies illustrate the types of output that the method can deliver.
There is a pressing need to mobilise the wealth of knowledge from the international mycotoxin research conducted over the past 25-30 years, and to perform cutting-edge research where knowledge gaps still exist. This knowledge needs to be integrated into affordable and practical tools for farmers and food processors along the chain in order to reduce the risk of mycotoxin contamination of crops, feed and food. This is the mission of MyToolBox – a four-year project which has received funding from the European Commission. It mobilises a multi-actor partnership (academia, farmers, technology small and medium sized enterprises, food industry and policy stakeholders) to develop novel interventions aimed at achieving a significant reduction in crop losses due to mycotoxin contamination. Besides a field-to-fork approach, MyToolBox also considers safe use options of contaminated batches, such as the efficient production of biofuels. Compared to previous efforts of mycotoxin reduction strategies, the distinguishing feature of MyToolBox is to provide the recommended measures to the end users along the food and feed chain in a web-based MyToolBox platform (e-toolbox). The project focuses on small grain cereals, maize, peanuts and dried figs, applicable to agricultural conditions in the EU and China. Crop losses using existing practices are being compared with crop losses after novel pre-harvest interventions including investigation of genetic resistance to fungal infection, cultural control (e.g. minimum tillage or crop debris treatment), the use of novel biopesticides suitable for organic farming, competitive biocontrol treatment and development of novel modelling approaches to predict mycotoxin contamination. Research into post-harvest measures includes real-time monitoring during storage, innovative sorting of crops using vision-technology, novel milling technology and studying the effects of baking on mycotoxins at an industrial scale.
The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) requested the Panel on Plant Health to develop a methodology for assessing the environmental risks posed by harmful organisms that may enter, establish and spread in the European Union. To do so, the Panel first reviewed the methods for assessing the environmental risks of plant pests that have previously been used in pest risk assessment. The limitations identified by the review led the Panel to define the new methodology for environmental risk assessment which is described in this guidance document. The guidance is primarily addressed to the EFSA PLH Panel and has been conceived as an enhancement of the relevant parts of the "Guidance on a harmonised framework for pest risk assessment and the identification and evaluation of pest risk management options by EFSA". Emphasizing the importance of assessing the consequences on both the structural (biodiversity) and the functional (ecosystem services) aspects of the environment, this new approach includes methods for assessing both aspects for the first time in a pest risk assessment scheme. A list of questions has been developed for the assessor to evaluate the consequences for structural biodiversity and for ecosystem services in the current area of invasion and in the risk assessment area. To ensure the consistency and transparency of the assessment, a rating system has also been developed based on a probabilistic approach with an evaluation of the degree of uncertainty. Finally, an overview of the available risk reduction options for pests in natural environments is presented, minimum data requirements are described, and a glossary to support the common understanding of the principles of this opinion is provided.
Background: Surgery is the main modality of cure for solid cancers and was prioritised to continue during COVID-19 outbreaks. This study aimed to identify immediate areas for system strengthening by comparing the delivery of elective cancer surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic in periods of lockdown versus light restriction. Methods: This international, prospective, cohort study enrolled 20 006 adult (≥18 years) patients from 466 hospitals in 61 countries with 15 cancer types, who had a decision for curative surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic and were followed up until the point of surgery or cessation of follow-up (Aug 31, 2020). Average national Oxford COVID-19 Stringency Index scores were calculated to define the government response to COVID-19 for each patient for the period they awaited surgery, and classified into light restrictions (index 60). The primary outcome was the non-operation rate (defined as the proportion of patients who did not undergo planned surgery). Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to explore the associations between lockdowns and non-operation. Intervals from diagnosis to surgery were compared across COVID-19 government response index groups. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04384926. Findings: Of eligible patients awaiting surgery, 2003 (10·0%) of 20 006 did not receive surgery after a median follow-up of 23 weeks (IQR 16-30), all of whom had a COVID-19-related reason given for non-operation. Light restrictions were associated with a 0·6% non-operation rate (26 of 4521), moderate lockdowns with a 5·5% rate (201 of 3646; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·77-0·84; p<0·0001), and full lockdowns with a 15·0% rate (1775 of 11 827; HR 0·51, 0·50-0·53; p<0·0001). In sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for SARS-CoV-2 case notification rates, moderate lockdowns (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·80-0·88; p<0·001), and full lockdowns (0·57, 0·54-0·60; p<0·001), remained independently associated with non-operation. Surgery beyond 12 weeks from diagnosis in patients without neoadjuvant therapy increased during lockdowns (374 [9·1%] of 4521 in light restrictions, 317 [10·4%] of 3646 in moderate lockdowns, 2001 [23·8%] of 11 827 in full lockdowns), although there were no differences in resectability rates observed with longer delays. Interpretation: Cancer surgery systems worldwide were fragile to lockdowns, with one in seven patients who were in regions with full lockdowns not undergoing planned surgery and experiencing longer preoperative delays. Although short-term oncological outcomes were not compromised in those selected for surgery, delays and non-operations might lead to long-term reductions in survival. During current and future periods of societal restriction, the resilience of elective surgery systems requires strengthening, which might include protected elective surgical pathways and long-term investment in surge capacity for acute care during public health emergencies to protect elective staff and services.
Background Surgery is the main modality of cure for solid cancers and was prioritised to continue during COVID-19 outbreaks. This study aimed to identify immediate areas for system strengthening by comparing the delivery of elective cancer surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic in periods of lockdown versus light restriction. Methods This international, prospective, cohort study enrolled 20 006 adult (≥18 years) patients from 466 hospitals in 61 countries with 15 cancer types, who had a decision for curative surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic and were followed up until the point of surgery or cessation of follow-up (Aug 31, 2020). Average national Oxford COVID-19 Stringency Index scores were calculated to define the government response to COVID-19 for each patient for the period they awaited surgery, and classified into light restrictions (index 60). The primary outcome was the non-operation rate (defined as the proportion of patients who did not undergo planned surgery). Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to explore the associations between lockdowns and non-operation. Intervals from diagnosis to surgery were compared across COVID-19 government response index groups. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04384926. Findings Of eligible patients awaiting surgery, 2003 (10·0%) of 20 006 did not receive surgery after a median follow-up of 23 weeks (IQR 16–30), all of whom had a COVID-19-related reason given for non-operation. Light restrictions were associated with a 0·6% non-operation rate (26 of 4521), moderate lockdowns with a 5·5% rate (201 of 3646; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·77–0·84; p<0·0001), and full lockdowns with a 15·0% rate (1775 of 11 827; HR 0·51, 0·50–0·53; p<0·0001). In sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for SARS-CoV-2 case notification rates, moderate lockdowns (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·80–0·88; p<0·001), and full lockdowns (0·57, 0·54–0·60; p<0·001), remained independently associated with non-operation. Surgery beyond 12 weeks from diagnosis in patients without neoadjuvant therapy increased during lockdowns (374 [9·1%] of 4521 in light restrictions, 317 [10·4%] of 3646 in moderate lockdowns, 2001 [23·8%] of 11 827 in full lockdowns), although there were no differences in resectability rates observed with longer delays. Interpretation Cancer surgery systems worldwide were fragile to lockdowns, with one in seven patients who were in regions with full lockdowns not undergoing planned surgery and experiencing longer preoperative delays. Although short-term oncological outcomes were not compromised in those selected for surgery, delays and non-operations might lead to long-term reductions in survival. During current and future periods of societal restriction, the resilience of elective surgery systems requires strengthening, which might include protected elective surgical pathways and long-term investment in surge capacity for acute care during public health emergencies to protect elective staff and services. Funding National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit, Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, Medtronic, Sarcoma UK, The Urology Foundation, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research.