Many studies of regional unemployment have found a significant neighborhood and spillover effect across regions within a country, but few papers have focused on how these factors relate to the Chinese regional labor market. In this paper we analyze the Chinese labor market and find that, besides the macro-environment and spatial effects that are commonly observed in the literature, regional institutional variables have had a significant impact on Chinese unemployment. As such, neighborhood and spillover effects are described in terms of their effect on Chinese regional unemployment. Adapted from the source document.
Since 1991, China has implemented two significant tax reforms. The first reform, in 1994, was a large-scale adjustment of the tax distribution system between the central and local governments, and the second reform, in 2012, replaced business tax with value-added tax. Also, the size of China's underground economy decreased from 13.55% in 1995 to 12.30% in 2016. The paper presents an evaluation of the effect of the two tax reforms and the existing underground economy on GDP growth in China. GDP is defined as explained variable, the explanatory variables include: the ratio of declared income to actual income, the change of concealed income, and the influence of tax rate change on declared income and concealed income. According to the tax reform in 1994 and 2012, two dummy variables are set respectively. In methodology, this paper uses Simultaneous equations model, SUR-OLSs and Slutsky identity. Our estimation is based on the official statistics of China National Bureau of Statistics in the period from 1991 to 2019. In empirical analysis, we decomposed tax changes into tax rate effect (change of budget constraint slope) and income effect (change of tax liability), then analyzed the impact of tax elasticity on GDP growth. The empirical results demonstrate that both the 1994 tax reform and 2012 tax reform have had a positive impact on GDP, with high statistical significance respectively. The results also confirm that the increase of tax rate leads to the increase of hidden income, which eventually leads to the decrease of GDP. The offered methodology can also be applied to most countries for time series analyses.For citationWang Y.K., Zhang L. Underground economy and GDP growth: Evidence from China's tax reforms. Journal of Tax Reform. 2021;7(1):87–107. DOI:10.15826/jtr.2021.7.1.092 Article infoReceived December 15, 2020; Revised February 26, 2021; Accepted March 15, 2021 ; За период с 1991 г. в Китае были проведены две важные налоговые реформы. Первая реформа, проведенная в 1994 г. существенно изменила систему распределения налогов между центральным и местными уровнями власти. В ходе второй налоговой реформы, проведенной в 2012 г., налог на добавленную стоимость введен вместо налога на бизнес. В рассатриваемый период, размер теневой экономики Китая сократился с 13,55% в 1995 г. до 12,30% в 2016 г. В данной статье представлена оценка влияния двух налоговых реформ и теневой экономики на рост ВВП в Китае. ВВП является зависимой переменной, к независимым переменным относятся: отношение декларированного дохода к фактическому доходу, изменение скрытого дохода, а также влияние изменения налоговой ставки на декларированный доход и скрытый доход. Налоговые реформы 1994 и 2012 гг. введены в модель как две фиктивные переменные. В качестве методологии исследования использованы модель одновременных уравнений, SUR-OLS и идентичность Слуцкого. Оценки основаны на официальной статистике Национального статистического бюро Китая за период с 1991 по 2019 г. В ходе эмпирического анализа была проведена декомпозиция влияния изменения налогов на эффект налоговой ставки (изменение наклона бюджетного ограничения) и эффект дохода (изменение налоговых обязательств), а затем было проанализировано влияние эластичности налога на рост ВВП. Эмпирические результаты с высокой статистической значимостью показали, что и налоговая реформа 1994 г., и налоговая реформа 2012 г. оказали положительное влияние на ВВП. Результаты исследования также подтверждают, что повышение налоговой ставки ведет к росту сокрытых доходов, что в конечном итоге приводит к снижению ВВП. Предложенная методология может также быть использована для анализа временных рядов в других странах. Для цитированияWang Y.K., Zhang L. Underground economy and GDP growth: Evidence from China's tax reforms. Journal of Tax Reform. 2021;7(1):87–107. DOI:10.15826/jtr.2021.7.1.092 Информация о статьеДата поступления 15 декабря 2020 г.; дата поступления после рецензирования 26 февраля 2021 г.; дата принятия к печати 15 марта 2021 г.
In the past 28 years, we find that except for the fiscal revenue of 5,132.1 billion yuan in 2007, which is greater than the fiscal expenditure of 4,978.1 billion yuan, presenting a fiscal surplus, the fiscal expenditure of the rest years is greater than the fiscal revenue, showing the situation of public sector net cash requirement (psncr), especially in 2011, the deficit( the gap between fiscal expenditure and fiscal revenue) is 537.3 billion yuan. Since then, the gap between expenditure and revenue has been increasing with each passing year. In 2015, the fiscal deficit is 2,368 billion yuan. In 2018, the fiscal deficit has been expanded to 3,754.4 billion yuan. In order to avoid the continuous increment of the deficit. This paper discusses the causal relationship between China's fiscal revenue and public expenditure from 1990 to 2018. If fiscal revenue has a positive impact on public expenditure, showing that the government shall reduce fiscal deficit through tax increment. On the contrary, it makes public expenditure continue to expand, leading to the continuous deterioration of fiscal deficit, so as to further decide whether China's future fiscal policy should adopt increasing fiscal revenue or deducting public expenditure policy to reduce the deficit.
