Nowcasting GDP using tone-adjusted time varying news topics: Evidence from the financial press
In: De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 766
12 results
Sort by:
In: De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 766
SSRN
In: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Volume 80, Issue 6, p. 1213-1242
SSRN
In: De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 507
SSRN
Working paper
In: De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 754
SSRN
In: De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 639 (2019)
SSRN
Working paper
In: International journal of forecasting, Volume 32, Issue 4, p. 1284-1305
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 415
SSRN
Working paper
In: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 14-113/III
SSRN
Working paper
In: International journal of forecasting, Volume 32, Issue 2, p. 411-436
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 573
SSRN
Working paper
The article analyses recent developments in business investment for a large group of EU countries, using a broad set of analytical tools and data sources. We find that the assessment of whether or not investment is currently low varies across benchmarks and countries. At the euro area level and for most countries, the level of business investment is broadly in line with the level of overall activity. However rates of capital stock growth have slowed down since the crisis. The main cyclical determinants of investment developments in the euro area include foreign and domestic demand, uncertainty and financial conditions. Uncertainty seems to have played a negative role during the financial and sovereign debt crises; however, given its low levels more recently, it has not acted as a drag on business investment overall during the recovery. Credit constraints appear to have hindered investment during the twin crises, especially in stressed countries. Aside from cyclical developments, important secular factors - relating to demographics, the changing nature and location of production, and the business environment - have influenced investment. Another factor that may have amplified the decline in private investment, particularly in countries that were hit hardest by the sovereign debt crisis, is the low level of public investment. This is because when public investment enhances the productivity of the private sector, there may be positive spillovers from the former to the latter, including across countries. Finally, intra-sector capital misallocation, measured as the within-sector dispersion across firms in the marginal revenue product of capital, has been increasing in Europe since 2002, which may in turn have exerted a significant drag on total factor productivity dynamics, and hence on aggregate output growth.
BASE
In: ECB Occasional Paper No. 215
SSRN
Working paper