Search results

Examines the use of economic models and forecasts based on them and recommends creation of an independent Central Economic Modelling Agency to characterize the declared economic strategy of the government; Great Britain.

Keynes' criticisms of Tinbergen's pioneering econometric work are traced back to Keynes' concept of "inductive probability logic". Induction had already been rejected by Popper as the basis of scientific method. He argued that theories could be corroborated but not proved by the failure of attempts to falsify them by observation and experiment. Economic theory is proto‐theory, which is not fully falsifiable, but which yields falsifiable results if appropriate econometric methods, or a method‐theory is applied to it. A useful method‐theory needs to go beyond description and forecasting to policy optimisation.

Employee assistance programs (MPs) represent a relatively new fringe benefit for workers; the number of these programs has been steadily increasing in worksites of all sizes. Despite this surge in the growth of EAPs, few studies have estimated their costs or benefits. To guide future economic evaluation studies of EAPs, we have developed a methodology that has four components: a process description to understand the structure, operating environment, and goals of the EAP; a cost analysis to comprehensively identify and estimate the full range of EAP costs; an outcomes analysis to rigorously estimate the effectiveness of the EAP for groups of employees and the overall impact of the EAP on employee performance and workplace productivity; and an economic evaluation to estimate cost-effectiveness ratios, dollar benefits, and net benefits of the EAP. Our methodology is based on standard economic theory, but we present the evaluation strategy in a nontechnical way so that it can be used by employers and other researchers to estimate the costs and benefits of EAPs.