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Between 1978 and 2005, Pope John Paul II traveled to 102 developing countries with the aim, inter alia, of promoting interreligious peace to populations and policy makers. Despite an increasing involvement of religious leaders in peace-building activities, concerns rise on the propensity of religious issues to be locally exploited for political interests. This article examines the dynamic effects of John Paul II travels on the risk of political conflict in host countries depending on their religious demography. Our empirical strategy combines the development of a political conflict risk index, an impact assessment methodology, and the estimation of local projections. Our results show that the travels of John Paul II reduce the risk of conflict in host countries over a 4-year horizon, particularly when the proportion of Catholics is low. We also observe a temporary rise in the risk of conflict for religiously polarized countries.

In 2018, 1,300 people were killed and 300,000 displaced as a result of herder-farmer conflicts in Nigeria. These tensions threaten the already weakened security, economic development and food security in Western Africa. Indeed, cross-border transhumance of herders during the dry season is an important economic activity recognized by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This practice is also an important adaptation strategy to climate change for Sahelian States that have developed a comparative advantage in producing and exporting livestock. However, the establishment of a harmonized legal framework surrounding this practice is hampered by coordination failures between Coastal States (primary receivers of livestock flows) and the Sahelian States (primary providers of livestock flows). The growth of the Nigerian agricultural sector through the expansion of agricultural land threatens the last open pastures and transhumance corridors. Indeed, Nigeria faces a scarcity of arable land for a growing rural population. Is competition for the remaining Nigerian grassland a factor of violence between nomadic herders from Niger and Nigerian farmers? Recent empirical evidence suggests that climate-induced migration of herders to nearby agricultural areas (short transhumance) is associated with a higher risk of herder-farmer conflict for the remaining pastoral resources. However, no analysis has been made on the case of lengthy and costly transhumance. This article analyses the security implications of cross-border transhumance between Niger and Nigeria at the scale of 0.5x0.5 degree cells between 2006 and 2016. Using spatial panel techniques and satellite data on land cover, it questions the importance of grassland grabbing strategies as a cause of the recent herder-farmer conflicts in Nigeria. The obtained results hardly coincide with the idea that transhumant herders from Niger enter into conflict with Nigerian farmers over the grabbing of the last grazing resources. Ultimately, the economy of Sahelian ...

In 2018, 1,300 people were killed and 300,000 displaced as a result of herder-farmer conflicts in Nigeria. These tensions threaten the already weakened security, economic development and food security in Western Africa. Indeed, cross-border transhumance of herders during the dry season is an important economic activity recognized by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This practice is also an important adaptation strategy to climate change for Sahelian States that have developed a comparative advantage in producing and exporting livestock. However, the establishment of a harmonized legal framework surrounding this practice is hampered by coordination failures between Coastal States (primary receivers of livestock flows) and the Sahelian States (primary providers of livestock flows). The growth of the Nigerian agricultural sector through the expansion of agricultural land threatens the last open pastures and transhumance corridors. Indeed, Nigeria faces a scarcity of arable land for a growing rural population. Is competition for the remaining Nigerian grassland a factor of violence between nomadic herders from Niger and Nigerian farmers? Recent empirical evidence suggests that climate-induced migration of herders to nearby agricultural areas (short transhumance) is associated with a higher risk of herder-farmer conflict for the remaining pastoral resources. However, no analysis has been made on the case of lengthy and costly transhumance. This article analyses the security implications of cross-border transhumance between Niger and Nigeria at the scale of 0.5x0.5 degree cells between 2006 and 2016. Using spatial panel techniques and satellite data on land cover, it questions the importance of grassland grabbing strategies as a cause of the recent herder-farmer conflicts in Nigeria. The obtained results hardly coincide with the idea that transhumant herders from Niger enter into conflict with Nigerian farmers over the grabbing of the last grazing resources. Ultimately, the economy of Sahelian ...

Between 1978 and 2005, Pope John Paul II traveled to 102 developing countries with the aim, inter alia, of promoting interreligious peace to populations and policy makers. Despite an increasing involvement of religious leaders in peace-building activities, concerns rise on the propensity of religious issues to be locally exploited for political interests. This article examines the dynamic effects of John Paul II travels on the risk of political conflict in host countries depending on their religious demography. Our empirical strategy combines the development of a political conflict risk index, an impact assessment methodology, and the estimation of local projections. Our results show that the travels of John Paul II reduce the risk of conflict in host countries over a 4-year horizon, particularly when the proportion of Catholics is low. We also observe a temporary rise in the risk of conflict for religiously polarized countries.

Between 1978 and 2005, Pope John Paul II traveled to 102 developing countries with the aim, inter alia, of promoting interreligious peace to populations and policy makers. Despite an increasing involvement of religious leaders in peace-building activities, concerns rise on the propensity of religious issues to be locally exploited for political interests. This article examines the dynamic effects of John Paul II travels on the risk of political conflict in host countries depending on their religious demography. Our empirical strategy combines the development of a political conflict risk index, an impact assessment methodology, and the estimation of local projections. Our results show that the travels of John Paul II reduce the risk of conflict in host countries over a 4-year horizon, particularly when the proportion of Catholics is low. We also observe a temporary rise in the risk of conflict for religiously polarized countries.

In 2018, 1,300 people were killed and 300,000 displaced as a result of herder-farmer conflicts in Nigeria. These tensions threaten the already weakened security, economic development and food security in Western Africa. Indeed, cross-border transhumance of herders during the dry season is an important economic activity recognized by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This practice is also an important adaptation strategy to climate change for Sahelian States that have developed a comparative advantage in producing and exporting livestock. However, the establishment of a harmonized legal framework surrounding this practice is hampered by coordination failures between Coastal States (primary receivers of livestock flows) and the Sahelian States (primary providers of livestock flows). The growth of the Nigerian agricultural sector through the expansion of agricultural land threatens the last open pastures and transhumance corridors. Indeed, Nigeria faces a scarcity of arable land for a growing rural population. Is competition for the remaining Nigerian grassland a factor of violence between nomadic herders from Niger and Nigerian farmers? Recent empirical evidence suggests that climate-induced migration of herders to nearby agricultural areas (short transhumance) is associated with a higher risk of herder-farmer conflict for the remaining pastoral resources. However, no analysis has been made on the case of lengthy and costly transhumance. This article analyses the security implications of cross-border transhumance between Niger and Nigeria at the scale of 0.5x0.5 degree cells between 2006 and 2016. Using spatial panel techniques and satellite data on land cover, it questions the importance of grassland grabbing strategies as a cause of the recent herder-farmer conflicts in Nigeria. The obtained results hardly coincide with the idea that transhumant herders from Niger enter into conflict with Nigerian farmers over the grabbing of the last grazing resources. Ultimately, the economy of Sahelian ...

L'Afrique de l'Ouest connaît une hausse des conflits dans des zones où la majorité de la population est rurale. Une analyse microéconomique avec des données locales permettrait de comprendre les mécanismes amenant à la violence. La vulnérabilité des ménages ruraux est accrue par l'accroissement de la précarité économique.

Internal conflict prevention calls for a better understanding of the way those events form and spread through space and time. In comparison with other social science disciplines, economics started to explore this field only very recently. Over the past 20 years and as if it was trying to make up for the time lost, we have witnessed a bustle in the number of econometrical research papers written on this subject. What conclusions can we draw from those works? The present document defines the analysis scope of this area of study by insisting on the three deep mechanisms responsible of predatory behaviors: state capacity, the "prize" value of capturing the state and the opportunity cost of joining a rebel group. It also gives an assessment of the constraints and the recent developments in the causal analysis of internal conflicts. Finally, this article shows that the improvements in the methodology of causal inference, in the econometric tools and in the data collection methods open promising research opportunities on topics such as the role of social cohesion or the consequences of climate change on the risk of conflict. ; Prévenir les conflits internes nécessite une meilleure compréhension de la manière dont ils se forment et se propagent dans le temps et l'espace. Par rapport aux autres sciences sociales, l'économie n'a que très récemment investi ce champ d'étude. Comme pour rattraper son retard, nous assistons depuis une vingtaine d'années à une effervescence de la recherche économétrique sur le sujet. Quelles conclusions tirer de ces travaux ? Ce document définit le périmètre d'analyse de ce champ d'étude en insistant sur trois mécanismes profonds à l'origine des comportements de prédation : les capacités de l'Etat, la valeur du gain issu de la capture de l'Etat et le coût d'opportunité d'entrer dans un groupe armé auquel les individus font face (i.e. l'arbitrage entre des activités de production ou de prédation). Il dresse également un bilan des contraintes et avancées récentes dans l'analyse causale des ...

Internal conflict prevention calls for a better understanding of the way those events form and spread through space and time. In comparison with other social science disciplines, economics started to explore this field only very recently. Over the past 20 years and as if it was trying to make up for the time lost, we have witnessed a bustle in the number of econometrical research papers written on this subject. What conclusions can we draw from those works? The present document defines the analysis scope of this area of study by insisting on the three deep mechanisms responsible of predatory behaviors: state capacity, the "prize" value of capturing the state and the opportunity cost of joining a rebel group. It also gives an assessment of the constraints and the recent developments in the causal analysis of internal conflicts. Finally, this article shows that the improvements in the methodology of causal inference, in the econometric tools and in the data collection methods open promising research opportunities on topics such as the role of social cohesion or the consequences of climate change on the risk of conflict. ; Prévenir les conflits internes nécessite une meilleure compréhension de la manière dont ils se forment et se propagent dans le temps et l'espace. Par rapport aux autres sciences sociales, l'économie n'a que très récemment investi ce champ d'étude. Comme pour rattraper son retard, nous assistons depuis une vingtaine d'années à une effervescence de la recherche économétrique sur le sujet. Quelles conclusions tirer de ces travaux ? Ce document définit le périmètre d'analyse de ce champ d'étude en insistant sur trois mécanismes profonds à l'origine des comportements de prédation : les capacités de l'Etat, la valeur du gain issu de la capture de l'Etat et le coût d'opportunité d'entrer dans un groupe armé auquel les individus font face (i.e. l'arbitrage entre des activités de production ou de prédation). Il dresse également un bilan des contraintes et avancées récentes dans l'analyse causale des conflits internes. Il montre que l'amélioration des méthodes d'inférence causale, des outils économétriques et des méthodes de collecte de données dessine des perspectives de recherche prometteuses sur des sujets tels que le rôle de la cohésion sociale et les conséquences du changement climatique sur le risque de conflit.

L'Agence France Presse entretient avec l'État français des liens étroits qui s'expliquent par les conditions de sa création au lendemain de la Seconde Guerre mondiale mais également par son statut juridique. Bien que l'État et l'agence de presse entretiennent des relations d'influence depuis 1944, celles-ci ont connu des variations historiques considérables. Les correspondants étrangers de l'Agence France Presse sont aux prises avec une double contrainte étatique, celle exercée par l'État français mais également celle exercée par le pouvoir étatique du pays qu'ils couvrent, notamment dans le cadre des régimes autoritaires. C'est donc à une renégociation permanente qu'ils doivent procéder pour exercer leur activité en respectant les règles éthiques du métier d'agencier.

The international news agency Agence France Presse (AFP) has always been closely connected to the French State. It was created with the financial assistance of French authorities. In 1957, the AFP acquired a permanent status to guarantee the agency's editorial independence, but its reliance on the state continued. Yet relations between the State and the AFP have considerably evolved since 1944. Notwithstanding, the foreign correspondents of the AFP labour under a double bind. First, they work under the pressure exercised by the French State and, second, they have to face pressure coming from local governments (especially in case they are stationed in countries under dictatorship). Consequently, foreign correspondents have had to adapt their professional practices to the political environment while trying to respect journalistic ethics. Adapted from the source document.