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The global low-carbon energy transition driven by technological change and government plans to comply with the Paris Agreement makes future gas demand, prices, and associated public revenues uncertain. We assess the prospects for natural gas production and public revenues from royalties and taxation of gas production in Latin American and the Caribbean under different levels of climate policy. We derive demand from a global energy model, and supply from a global natural gas field model and a global oil field model - for associated gas. We find that natural gas production and associated public revenue are strongly impacted by decarbonization efforts. The more stringent climate policy is, the lower the production of natural gas. Exporting natural gas from Latin America and the Caribbean does not help the rest of the world reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In scenarios consistent with limiting global warming well-below 2êC, incumbent producers and natural gas associated with oil dominate production, drastically limiting opportunities for new gas production in the region and increasing the amount of gas left in the ground. Reduced demand for gas produced from Latin America and the Caribbean is mainly driven by falling demand in the region itself, as energy demand in buildings, industry, and transportation shift towards electricity produced from zero-carbon sources. Cumulative public revenues from natural gas extraction by 2035 range between 42 and 200 billion USD. The lower end of the range reflects scenarios consistent with below 2êC warming. In this case, up to 50% of proven, probable, and possible (3P) reserves in the region (excluding Venezuela) remain unburnable - the paper provides estimates by country. Our findings confirm that governments cannot rely on revenues from gas extraction if the objectives of the Paris Agreement are to be met. Instead, they need to diversify their fiscal and export strategy away from dependence on gas production. More generally, climate objectives, energy policies and fiscal strategies need to be consistent.

À la suite de la hausse des prix de l'énergie, des impacts de la récession sur les économies nationales et régionales, et des maisons peu éconergétiques, les États membres sont de plus en plus confrontés à des problèmes de pauvreté énergétique, une situation où les individus ne sont pas en mesure de chauffer correctement leur domicile ou de satisfaire d'autres besoins de services énergétiques à un coût abordable. Cet article examine comment les États membres définissent les notions de pauvreté énergétique et de consommateurs vulnérables, ainsi que les mesures qui ont été mises en œuvre en réponse. Basé sur les travaux entrepris par le consortium INSIGHT_E, il met en évidence les approches bien distinctes dans toute l'Europe, qui résultent de la forte subsidiarité dans ce domaine de l'élaboration des politiques, des perspectives et des niveaux différents de reconnaissance sur la question, ainsi que d'une grande diversité des situations nationales. La réponse fragmentée qui résulte au niveau européen souligne un rôle nécessaire de la Commission européenne et la nécessité des efforts unis pour relever le défi de la vulnérabilité dans les marchés de l'énergie et celui de la pauvreté énergétique. Pour ce faire, la Commission et les États membres devront se pencher sur un déficit de compréhension, définir les enjeux avec plus de vigueur, et regarder au-delà des marchés intérieurs de l'énergie en voyant la problématique de manière plus large. Cet article fait un certain nombre de recommandations qui fournissent une base pour savoir comment ces objectifs pourraient être atteints.

-Policies in the sectors of heating and cooling, and transport need a stronger focus to achieve the EU 2020 and 2030 renewable share targets. -There is scope to introduce policy measures supporting Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in the transport sector (RES-T) such as a single binding legislative framework at the EU level while allowing differentiated support for efficient biofuels, green certificates as well as the uptake of electric and hydrogen mobility -In addition to setting overall targets the EC can play a role in monitoring retroactive measures at the Member States (MS) level, develop clear sustainability criteria to support bioenergy, and ensure that MS RES policy packages are consistent with the internal energy market -Costs of ancillary services such as balancing reserves will need to be distributed fairly between network operators and end-users across national borders as the EU moves towards an common internal energy ...

AbstractThis article explores how the modeling of energy systems may lead to an undue closure of alternatives by generating an excess of certainty around some of the possible policy options. We retrospectively exemplify the problem with the case of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) global modeling in the 1980s. We discuss different methodologies for quality assessment that may help mitigate this issue, which include Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree (NUSAP), diagnostic diagrams, and sensitivity auditing (SAUD). We illustrate the potential of these reflexive modeling practices in energy policy‐making with three additional cases: (i) the case of the energy system modeling environment (ESME) for the creation of UK energy policy; (ii) the negative emission technologies (NETs) uptake in integrated assessment models (IAMs); and (iii) the ecological footprint indicator. We encourage modelers to adopt these approaches to achieve more robust, defensible, and inclusive modeling activities in the field of energy research.