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Epiphytes need to colonize new suitable host trees before their existing host trees disappear in order to persist in forest landscapes. Thus, their persistence may be threatened by accelerated dynamics of intensive forest management [1], especially if suitable host trees will be scarcely located [2]. Wood production is a key global provisioning ecosystem service. In the European Union, the bioeconomy policy guides forest management for the provision of forest products and ecosystem services to meet global, EU wide and national demands. At the same time, the EU Biodiversity Strategy sets targets for the sustainable management of forests to maintain the persistence of species. It is therefore important to identify forestry practices that can reconcile the contrasting objectives of providing high forest product yields while also preserving forest biodiversity. We studied how alternative, objective-driven forest management scenarios affect the persistence and metapopulation dynamics of epiphytic lichens and bryophytes in boreal forests. We fitted spatially explicit colonization-extinction models for six bryophyte species of varying host tree preferences and one epiphytic lichen (Lobaria pulmonaria) using landscape-scale data from north-eastern Finland. We simulated their metapopulation dynamics for 100 years into the future assuming different forest management scenarios created for a 66 000 ha study landscape in northern Sweden. The forest management scenarios varied in terms of tree species composition, management and retention practices and were constructed based on alternative criteria, such as the projected wood product demand under different future scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways [3] for the European Union. Our results show how forest variables and connectivity to potential dispersal sources explain colonization and extinction dynamics and persistence for different forest epiphytes. Thus, our results pinpoint combinations of forestry and conservation strategies that best support the long-term persistence of species while meeting the defined forestry objectives. Altogether, our results help to reconcile forestry and biodiversity conservation in boreal forests. The work is part of the BiodivERsA project GreenFutureForest. References: 1. Belinchón R, Harrison PJ, Mair L, Várkonyi G & Snäll T. 2017. Local epiphyte establishment and future metapopulation dynamics in landscapes with different spatiotemporal properties. Ecology 98:741–750. 2. Johansson V, Ranius T & Snäll T. 2012. Epiphyte metapopulation dynamics are explained by species traits, connectivity, and patch dynamics. Ecology 93:235–241. 3. Riahi K, van Vuuren DP, Kriegler E… & Tavoni M. 2017. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global Environmental Change 42:153–168. ; peerReviewed

The transition towards the bio-based economy in the future increases the demand for raw materials from the forests. This will increase the extraction of wood from the forests but may adversely affect its biodiversity and other ecosystem services (ESS). The growth rate of most tree species in Sweden is predicted to increase because of changing climate. It will however be counterbalanced by an increased risk of damage due to extreme weather events such as storms. Therefore, it is necessary to develop adaptive management measures that exploit the benefits of climate change while minimizing the damages on growing stock, ESS and biodiversity resulting from its risks. It is further important to consider the trends in the global development for studying the future trends of production and nature conservation in Sweden . The demand for wood varies among the global development scenarios and greenhouse gas emission pathways. The aims of this study are: (i) to identify the impacts of climate change, EU forest policies and associated wood demand on Swedish forests, (ii) how the combination of different scenarios of EU forest policies and climate affects the harvest levels, carbon sequestration and future occurrence of a set of forest-dwelling species in Sweden and (iii) to formulate optimal combinations of different management regimes for sustainably achieving the demand for different wood assortments and environmental goals in Sweden as stipulated in EU and national forest policy statements under changing climatic conditions. In this study the demand for different wood assortments in Sweden will be simulated assuming different global and EU policy scenarios using the GLOBIOM model. The three policy scenarios are baseline, bioenergy and global bioenergy. In the baseline scenario, the increase in global demand for wood stabilizes by 2020 whereas in others the increase in wood demand stabilizes only after 2050. In the global bioenergy scenario, mitigation measures are implemented globally resulting in higher wood demand in comparison to the bioenergy scenario where mitigation measures are confined only to EU. Assuming the different demand for wood assortments, we will propose adaptive management measures like delaying final felling, avoiding thinning and speeding up final felling, green tree retention, continuous cover forestry and unmanaged forest along with a current management scenario. The simulations of the Swedish forest landscape with different adaptive management regimes will be performed using the Heureka model. Optimization will be done for maximizing various objectives like net present value, carbon sequestration and biodiversity. Biodiversity will be accounted for in the form of different species distribution models. The time period of the simulations will be from 2010 to 2100. Two future climate scenarios, a business as usual scenario (RCP8.5) and an optimistic scenario (RCP4.5) are also considered in this study. ; peerReviewed

There is high-level political support for the use of green infrastructure (GI) across Europe, to maintain viable populations and to provide ecosystem services (ES). Even though GI is inherently a spatial concept, the modern tools for spatial planning have not been recognized, such as in the recent European Environment Agency (EEA) report. We outline a toolbox of methods useful for GI design that explicitly accounts for biodiversity and ES. Data on species occurrence, habitats, and environmental variables are increasingly available via open-access internet platforms. Such data can be synthesized by statistical species distri- bution modeling, producing maps of biodiversity features. These, together with maps of ES, can form the basis for GI design. We argue that spatial conservation prioritization (SCP) methods are effective tools for GI design, as the overall SCP goal is cost-effective allocation of conservation efforts. Corridors are currently promoted by the EEA as the means for implementing GI design, but they typically target the needs of only a subset of the regional species pool. SCP methods would help to ensure that GI provides a balanced solution for the requirements of many biodiversity features (e.g., species, habitat types) and ES simultaneously in a cost- effective manner. Such tools are necessary to make GI into an operational concept for combating biodiversity loss and promoting ES. ; Peer reviewed