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AbstractAs we approach the tenth anniversary of the passage of the Affordable Care Act, it is important to reflect on what has been learned about the impacts of this major reform. In this paper, we review the literature on the impacts of the ACA on patients, providers, and the economy. We find strong evidence that the ACA's provisions have increased insurance coverage. There is also a clearly positive effect on access to and consumption of health care, with suggestive but more limited evidence on improved health outcomes. There is no evidence of significant reductions in provider access, changes in labor supply, or increased budgetary pressures on state governments, and the law's total federal cost through 2018 has been less than predicted. We conclude by describing key policy implications and future areas for research.

© 2019 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management As we approach the tenth anniversary of the passage of the Affordable Care Act, it is important to reflect on what has been learned about the impacts of this major reform. In this paper, we review the literature on the impacts of the ACA on patients, providers, and the economy. We find strong evidence that the ACA's provisions have increased insurance coverage. There is also a clearly positive effect on access to and consumption of health care, with suggestive but more limited evidence on improved health outcomes. There is no evidence of significant reductions in provider access, changes in labor supply, or increased budgetary pressures on state governments, and the law's total federal cost through 2018 has been less than predicted. We conclude by describing key policy implications and future areas for research.

© 2019 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management As we approach the tenth anniversary of the passage of the Affordable Care Act, it is important to reflect on what has been learned about the impacts of this major reform. In this paper, we review the literature on the impacts of the ACA on patients, providers, and the economy. We find strong evidence that the ACA's provisions have increased insurance coverage. There is also a clearly positive effect on access to and consumption of health care, with suggestive but more limited evidence on improved health outcomes. There is no evidence of significant reductions in provider access, changes in labor supply, or increased budgetary pressures on state governments, and the law's total federal cost through 2018 has been less than predicted. We conclude by describing key policy implications and future areas for research.

This study analyzes a newly released government survey examining Medicaid beneficiaries' experiences with and opinions of the Medicaid program.

While the Affordable Care Act has expanded health insurance to millions of Americans through the expansion of eligibility for Medicaid and the health insurance Marketplaces, concerns about Marketplace stability persist—given increasing premiums and multiple insurers exiting selected markets. Yet there has been little investigation of what factors underlie this pattern. We assessed the county-level prevalence of limited insurer participation (defined as having two or fewer distinct participating insurers) in Marketplaces in the period 2014–18. Overall, in 2015 and 2016 rates of insurer participation were largely stable, and approximately 80 percent of counties (containing 93 percent of US residents) had at least three Marketplace insurers. However, these proportions declined sharply starting in 2017, falling to 36 percent of counties and 60 percent of the population in 2018. We also examined county-level factors associated with limited insurer competition and found that it occurred disproportionately in rural counties, those with higher mortality rates, and those where insurers had lower medical loss ratios (that is, potentially higher profit margins), as well as in states where Republicans controlled the executive and legislative branches of government. Decreased competition was less common in states with higher proportions of residents who were Hispanic or ages 45–64 and states that chose to expand Medicaid.

Prior to the Affordable Care Act, one in three young adults aged 19 to 25 years were uninsured, with substantial racial/ethnic disparities in coverage. We analyzed the separate and cumulative changes in racial/ethnic disparities in coverage and access to care among young adults after implementation of the Affordable Care Act's 2010 dependent coverage provision and 2014 Medicaid and Marketplace expansions. We find that the dependent coverage provision was associated with similar gains across racial/ethnic groups, but the 2014 expansion was associated with larger gains in coverage among Hispanics and Blacks relative to Whites. After the 2014 expansion, coverage increased by 11.0 and 10.1 percentage points among Hispanics and Blacks, respectively, compared with a 5.6 percentage point increase among Whites. The percentage with a usual source of care and a recent doctor's visit also increased more for Blacks relative to Whites. Increases in coverage were larger in Medicaid expansion compared with nonexpansion states for most racial/ethnic groups.

The November 2014 midterm election was the first election since key coverage provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) were implemented, including the Medicaid expansion and creation of the health insurance exchanges. The pre-election variability in the states' implementation of these provisions coupled with the large number of states selecting their next governor made the election important at the state level. To better understand the role of health care in the recent gubernatorial elections, we analyzed health policy content presented by 71 candidates for governor on their campaign Web sites. Nearly 80% of all candidates discussed health policy on their Web site, including the subset of the 36 winning governors. The predominant focus of health policy content was on the ACA as a whole or its provisions. Medicaid was discussed more often by candidates in non-expansion states than those from expansion states. Based on the statements of winning governors, we expect serious consideration of the Medicaid expansion to occur in at least 4 states, whereas 2 states may make efforts to reverse course. Relatively few winning governors (33%) mentioned the exchanges. Only 1 expressed interest in switching from the federal exchange to a state exchange, which has particular relevance given the Supreme Court's pending decision on King v. Burwell that could invalidate tax credits on the federal exchange. The prominence of health care in the gubernatorial campaigns strengthens the likelihood that governors will play an influential role in the health system's future, especially as the ACA undergoes further federal debate.

The first open enrollment period under the Affordable Care Act has come and gone. One might be tempted to ask, "How has the law done so far?" — if only that question hadn't already been asked ad nauseum since the first week of open enrollment in October 2013. As a researcher whose primary interests are insurance coverage and access to care (and as an advisor in the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services), I have frequently been asked this question – by students, by friends and family, and by reporters. Consider this my response.