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"Nothing is more uncertain than the length of a given human life; nothing is more certain than the solvency of a life assurance company".

Abstract A central issue in the controversy surrounding the death penalty is the question of deterrence. Specifically, does the additional severity of capital punishment over life imprisonment serve to deter potential criminals? I attempt to deal with this question by separating the effects of severity of punishment from those of certainty of punishment by examining various woys in which these factors have been manipulated in the attempt to curb the incidence of skyjacking. I conclude that increasing the certainty of punishment results in a decrease in crime, whereas increasing the severity does not, in effect arguing against the necessity of the death penulty.

People believe their opinions directly reflect reality, which commonly leads them to adopt certain views (Ross & Ward, 1996). This certainty of position often leads people to think those who disagree with them are biased and extreme (Blatz, Sumantry, and Mercier, 2017). In the present study, we tested whether opponents who are interpreted as certain and thus more biased have less persuasive appeal than those who are uncertain because they are seen as biased and extreme. Participants on each side of the legalization of marijuana read articles regarding the political issue. The articles were ostentatiously written by an expert source - a doctor describing a position opposite to the participant's either certainly or uncertainly. We hypothesized that individuals would interpret the certain author as biased and thus less persuasive than the uncertain author. Results suggest that certainty of an opposing opinion did not affect its persuasive appeal. This may be a result of applying the theory to an improper context – an expert source as people may not interpret expert sources as biased. It may also result because of a failure in the study design - the manipulation check of perceived certainty suggested that the passages were not seen as more or less certain. Future directions will be discussed. Discipline: Psychology Faculty Mentor: Dr. Craig Blatz

This article is divided into three parts. First, a quasi certainty, Europtimism, is identified. Second, 11 probable trends in the national and international environments of the 1990s are noted. Finally, three major uncertainties are discussed.