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IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE HIS POLICY GOALS, THE PRESIDENT MUST PERSUADE CONGRESS TO SUPPORT HIS PREFERENCES. RICHARD NEUSTADT (1960) SUGGESTS THAT THE PRESIDENT'S TASK IS EASED CONSIDERABLY IF HE IS POPULAR WITH THE PUBLIC. MORE RECENT QUANTITATIVE STUDIES TEND TO SUPPORTS NEUSTADT'S CONCLUSIONS (EDWARDS 1976, 1977, 1980; BOND AND FLEISHER 1980). ALTHOUGH THE FINDINGS OF THESE STUDIES HAVE GAINED WIDE ACCEPTANCE, MAJOR CONCEPTUAL AND METHODOLOGICAL FLAWS IN THE ANALYSES RAISE DOUBTS ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF PUBLIC OPINION AS A SOURCE OF PRESIDENTIAL INFLUENCE IN CONGRESS. THE PURPOSE OF THIS PAPER IS TO REEXAMINE THE LINK BETWEEN THE PRESIDENT'S POPULARITY WITH THE PUBLIC AND THE SUCCESS OF HIS POLICY PREFERENCES IN CONGRESS USING A RESEARCH DESIGN THAT CORRECTS SOME OF THE MAJOR PROBLEMS IN PREVIOUS STUDIES. THE PAPER IS DIVIDED INTO FOUR SECTIONS. THE FIRST SECTION REVIEWS AND CRITIQUES PAST RESEARCH ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PUBLIC OPINION AND PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESS IN CONGRESS. THE SECOND SECTION DESCRIBES THE DATA AND MEASURES USED IN OUR ANALYSIS. THE THIRD SECTION PRESENTS RESULTS INDICATING THAT THE EFFECT OF PUBLIC OPINION ON PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESS IN CONGRESS IS MORE LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS WORK WOULD SUGGEST, WHILE THE FINAL SECTION OFFERS CONCLUSIONS AND POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS OF THE LIMITED INFLUENCE OF PUBLIC OPINION ON PRESIDENTIAL-CONGRESSIONAL RELATIONS.

Philip E. Converse has proposed that party identification is intensified through a process of reinforcement, ie, repeated voting in accord with that identification; it follows that party identification increases in intensity as individuals age. Others have proposed that voters' partisan strength is a function of the character of the political environment in their youth, ie, that a highly charged political environment leads to intensified partisanship. These two hypotheses imply the same cross-sectional patterns in current survey data. Cohort analyses falter on the identification problem. Therefore, other implications must be examined. Most females born before 1899 have had fewer opportunities to reinforce a party tie through voting experience than males of similar age. Thus if Converse is correct, the partisan strength of males born before 1899 should exceed that of females of the same age. However, since these males & females shared the same political environment, if Converse's critics are correct, their partisan intensity should be equal. On the bases of survey data from the 1952-1964 period, these implications were tested; only marginal differences were found between males & females born before 1899. These results are supportive of a generational explanation of partisan strength. 2 Tables, Modified AA.

Consider a group of people confronted with a dichotomous choice (ie, a yes or no decision). Assume that each person can be characterized by a probability, pi, of making the better of the two choices open to the group, such that "better" is defined in terms of some linear ordering of the alternatives. If individual choices are independent, & if the a priori likelihood that either of the two choices is correct is 50%, it is shown that the group decision procedure that maximizes the likelihood that the group will make the better of the two choices open to it is a weighted voting rule that assigns weights formulaically, as described. The implications for optimal group choice of interdependencies among individual choices are examined. 82 References. Modified HA

TO WHAT EXTENT IS A GOVERNMENT'S LEGITIMACY AFFECTED BY THE REGIONAL BREADTH OF ITS SUPPORT? IN THE 1983 BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION THE CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT WAS RETURNED TO OFFICE WITH A LARGE OVERALL MAJORITY IN THE COMMONS, BUT THERE WERE CONSIDERABLE REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENT OF ITS SUCCESS. THE CONSERVATIVES WON 70% OF THE ENGLISH SEATS BUT ONLY 37% OF THE SEATS IN WALES, 29% IN SCOTLAND AND NONE IN NORTHERN IRELAND. WITHIN ENGLAND THE CONSERVATIVES WON 86% OF THE SEATS IN THE SOUTH AND 70% IN THE MIDLANDS, BUT JUST 41% IN THE NORTH. THE EXISTENCE OF SUCH MARKED REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN THE LEVEL OF THE GOVERNMENT'S SUCCESS RAISES THE SPECIFICALLY TERRITORIAL ASPECT OF THE GENERAL QUESTION OF HOW FAR IT IS DESIRABLE FOR POLITICAL PARTIES, AND A GOVERNMENT PARTY IN PARTICULAR, TO HAVE BREADTH OF SUPPORT AS WELL AS DEPTH. THE PRINCIPLE OF MAJORITY RULE MEANS THAT "A MAJORITY OF ONE IS ENOUGH", BUT GOVERNMENT NORMALLY SEEK MORE THAN JUST A BARE MAJORITY. TO DISRAELI'S OBSERVATION THAT "A MAJORITY IS THE BEST REPARTEE" CAN BE ADDED THE RIDER THAT "A MAJORITY THAT IS LARGE AND BROADLY-BASED IS THE BEST REPARTEE OF ALL". CERTAINLY, DURING 1983 ELECTION CAMPAIGN THE PRIMKE MINISTER INDICATED THAT SHE ECT SOUGHT AS COMPREHENSIVT A VICTORY AS POSSIBLE AND WAS QUICK TO CORRECT THE (THEN) FOREIGN SECRETARY WHEN HE SUGGESTED THAT A LANDSLIDE WIN WAS NOT NECESSARILY DESIRABLE BECAUSE OF THE STIMULUS IT COULD GIVE TO TO BACKBENCH DISSENT.

Higher levels of urbanization, social diversity, & voter turnout have long been theorized as factors promoting political competition. Previous empirical evidence on these relationships, however, has been inconsistent mostly due to the methodological limitations & the lack of comparability of the studies. To correct for earlier shortcomings, data were collected for all US congressional districts (N=436) on the 1972 races for elections to the US House of Representatives, US Senate, the presidency, & state governorships. Political competition was measured by computing the runner-up's vote proportion as a % of the winner's vote proportion; urbanization was the proportion of people residing in central cities of 50,000 or more population; & social diviersity was the SE, racial, & community mix of a district as computed from Lieberson's index of population diversity. Controls were instituted for district X income, minority level, homeownership level, & geographic location. Multiple regression analysis revealed that diversity was related to competition in a positive direction for races to the Senate, presidency, & governorships; turnout was positively related to the competition to the House & the presidency but was negatively related to the governorships; & urbanization was related only to presidential competition, in a positive direction. Major conclusions were that the manner in which ecological factors influence competititon is highly specific to the particular race concerned, & that ecological factors are not very important for competition because on the average they accounted for only 18% of the variance in competition. 2 Tables. AA.