KOMPARATIVNA ANALIZA TRANSFORMACIJA POLITIČKIH SUSTAVA TUNISA, EGIPTA I ALŽIRA ; COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE TRANSFORMATION OF POLITICAL SYSTEMS OF TUNISIA, EGYPT, AND ALGERIA
Temeljno pitanje na koje ovaj rad pokušava dati odgovor jest zašto je demokratska transformacija bila uspješna u Tunisu, a u Egiptu i Alžiru nije. Istraživanju je primarno pristupljeno sa stajališta deskriptivno-empirijskih teorija aktera, iako su korištene i kulturalističke teorije kako bi se bolje razumjele političke ideje i stavovi islamističkih aktera. Strategija istraživanja je fokusirana komparativna studija triju slučajeva – Tunisa, Egipta i Alžira – odnosno intraregionalna komparativna studija, budući da je riječ o zemljama koje pripadaju podregiji Sjeverne Afrike kao podsustavu regije Bliskog istoka. Komparativna studija ima različite ishode na ovisnoj varijabli kako bi se izbjegla neprirodna selekcijska pristranost te postigao kvazieksperimentalan efekt. Hipoteza koja je ponuđena glasi da je Tunis imao mekši civilni autoritarni režim koji je dopuštao interakciju i suradnju oporbenih i režimskih elita, a što je rezultiralo političkim dogovorom te, posljedično, uspješnom demokratskom tranzicijom. U slučaju Egipta i Alžira interakcija oporbenih i režimskih elita imala je prvenstveno oblik sukoba te je izostao politički dogovor, a time i demokratska tranzicija. Neovisne varijable koje su izolirane u teorijskoj raspravi jesu: karakter prethodnog autoritarnog režima, uloga vojske, tip opozicije i vlasti, obrasci interakcije opozicije i vlasti, obrasci tranzicije u demokraciju. Uz te varijable, analiza obuhvaća i kolonijalno razdoblje koje je bitno zato što pokazuje jesu li te zemlje imale neko prethodno demokratsko iskustvo, je li ono imalo neki utjecaj na kasniju demokratizaciju, kakve su političke elite nastale u tom razdoblju i, konzekventno, kakav su oblik autoritarnog sustava kasnije izgradile. Iz analize proizlazi zaključak da je glavna hipoteza potvrđena. Tunis je bio "mekši" autoritarni režim, što je omogućilo suradnju starih i novih elita koja je rezultirala političkim dogovorom, a time i uspješnom demokratskom tranzicijom. U Egiptu i Alžiru je sukob starih i novih elita onemogućio uspješnu demokratizaciju. ; The main question this thesis tries to provide an answer to is why democratic transformation was successful in Tunisia, but not in Egypt and Algeria. The research approach is primarily rooted in descriptive-empirical actor theories, although culturalist theories were used as well, as to better understand the political ideas and stances of Islamist actors. The research strategy is a focused comparative three-case-study – comprising Tunisia, Egypt, and Algeria – i.e. an intra-regional comparative study since these countries belong to the subregion of North Africa, which is a subsystem of the Middle Eastern region. The comparative study has different outcomes on the dependent variable, in order to avoid unnatural selection bias and achieve a quasi-experimental effect. The proposed hypothesis claims that Tunisia had a softer civilian authoritarian regime which permitted interaction and cooperation of opposition and regime elites, which resulted in a political agreement and, subsequently, a successful democratic transition. In the cases of Egypt and Algeria, the interaction of opposition and regime elites primarily took the form of conflict, with a lack of a political agreement, and thus democratic transition. The independent variables which were isolated in the theoretical discussion were the following: the character of the previous authoritarian regime, the role of the army, opposition and government type, patterns of opposition-government interaction, patterns of transition to democracy. In addition, the analysis encompasses the colonial period as well, which is important because it demonstrates whether these countries had the previous democratic experience, whether it had some influence on later democratization, what kinds of political elites emerged in that period and, consequently, what form of an authoritarian regime they later established. The analysis provides the conclusion that the main hypothesis was confirmed. Tunisia was a "softer" authoritarian regime, which had enabled the cooperation of old and new elites, which resulted in a political agreement, and thus a successful democratic transition. In Egypt and Algeria, the conflict of old and new elites prevented successful democratization.
