De Invloed va Verkiezingsvoorspellingen op het Stem--en Kiesgedrag
In: Acta politica: AP ; international journal of political science ; official journal of the Dutch Political Science Association (Nederlandse Kring voor Wetenschap der Politiek), Volume 6, Issue 2, p. 172-193
ISSN: 0001-6810
The article deals with the proper identification & localization of the effect of election predictions on voting behavior. As a revision of the "traditional bandwagon concept" stemming from the 1930's & 1940's, which is still in use despite its conceptual fallacy, new lines of thought are merged into the definition of the "modern bandwagon concept:" the relative & subjective bandwagon effects, together with the relative & subjective underdog effects & the slack effect, constitute the declaration effect as a resultant. Using matrices based upon party preferences, upon exposure to, perception of & interpretation of election predictions, & upon possible voting behavior, the several effects are localized. The real existence of effects is briefly discussed in relation to favorable or neutralizing conditions from the fields of pol'al sci & of mass COMM's. A warning is issued, on methodological & pol'al grounds, against too quick an acceptance of US res findings as valid for the Netherlands. IPSA.