Established models of the domestic policymaking process accord some role to the individual decision‐maker, but they usually fail to show how policy decisions are ultimately influenced by the character of the information available to the policymakers concerned. Drawing on one prominent model of decision‐making developed by analysts of foreign policy—the analogical reasoning approach—this article proposes that individual‐level approaches are most useful in domestic policy analysis where decision‐makers must confront a discrete policy "episode" in which perceived levels of cognitive uncertainty and ambiguity are high. An analysis of decision‐making by political leaders during the 1967 Detroit riots reveals that these leaders made widespread use of historical analogies at various stages of the policymaking process. Policymakers can probably be expected to rely on analogizing under circumstances and contexts that make cognitive demands similar to those observed in the Detroit case.
Students of political psychology have long shown an interest in exploring how analogical reasoning affects decision‐making. However, the existing literature on analogical reasoning has remained within the rationalist explanatory framework by assuming that an actor's interests can be deduced from that actor's position in a certain material structure, thus treating those interests as unaffected by the process of analogical reasoning. This assumption unduly restricts the role that analogies may play. Analogies can do more than simply allow decision‐makers to figure out what specific policies will advance their preexisting interests—they can also determine the interests themselves. To demonstrate the benefits of moving the analogical literature beyond rationalism, this article explores the Reagan administration's policy toward American hostages in Lebanon, which culminated in the Iran‐Contra scandal.
This study examines the rise of discourse on uncertainty in organization theory during the period 1879-1932. It offers qualitative analyses that are based on primary data collected from the American Machinist and the Engineering Magazine, central sources of documentation of management during this period. Introducing a social-constructivist approach to the empirical study of organizations, we argue that discourse on `uncertainty' has its roots in the technical sphere of industrial America. With time, elements of the concept were `translated' (metaphors, analogies, and paradigms) from the technical field to the management of organizations, thereby creating homologies between previously unrelated entities. Furthermore, claims to organizational reality depend, not only on metaphors and analogies borrowed from the technical realm, but also on the presence of an enabling social context. In this study, the context consists of (a) a network of mechanical engineers which diffused the concept, (b) the cultural spirit of the Progressive Era, and (c) the politics of labor unrest. We argue that the concept of uncertainty may be regarded as socially constructed knowledge that was created in a unique historical context and enacted by organizational actors and management theorists. The implications of this approach for contemporary organization theory are discussed.
Bianca Maria Gerlich It was the object of this article to discover possible historical traces of the basic structure of the novel-cycle Ciclo dei Pirati della Malesia by Emilio Salgari, in particular the historical existence of its chief protagonist Sandokan. Since historical facts corresponding to the setting of the cycle can in fact be found, it is clear that Salgari's novel should not be read as mere fictional literature but rather as literature with an historical background. Besides some rather general historical facts and circumstances, even some of the details turn out to be historical. The names of persons, places and constellations that were well-known in Europe such as "James Brooke", "Sarawak" and "Labuan" figure, but so do "Sandokan" and the "flag of the tiger" which were known at the time to a rather small group of people in Sabah. Salgari's dates are correct, too : Le Tigri di Mompracem starts at the end of 1849, and the original version La Tigre della Malesia in 1847 ; the battle of Malludu in fact took place in 1845. In the Yanez-passage we are informed that Sandokan was resident on the north coast of Borneo for a few years before he settled down in Mompracem. Perhaps the fundamental messages of the cycle correspond more to historical reality than some reports by European contemporaries or historians do. The Sandokan' s fight for freedom against the European colonizers reflects historical reality. Salgari portrayed history from the perspective of the "losers" and not from that of the "winners", unlike what one finds in most European literature of the last century. His protagonist, who belongs to the weaker party, is positively valued, whereas in official British historiography Malludu is obviously viewed negatively. However, it should be realized that only the basic structure of the novel coincides in part with historical events and persons, whereas vast parts - especially the immanent actions - belong to fiction. The cycle shows a form of virtual historical reality : Salgari worked his story out upon a historical frame, the polarity between "Sandokan" and "the British". The tension between this poles is essentially determined through the efforts of the colonizers. A detailed examination of historical analogies in the immanent parts of the cycle, or concerning Salgari's descriptions on Bornean customs, social relations and other aspects could bring forth further interesting results. The introductory question concerning the place of historicity in Salgari's Ciclo dei Pirati della Malesia can however be answered positively even on the basis of our preliminary examination. The three symbols "Mompracem", and the "flag of the tiger" and "Sandokan" did exist and were handed down orally and in writing. But more relevant perhaps is the connection between "Sandokan" and the "flag of the tiger" through Sandokan's native country Malludu. He lived there and was indeed very probably in a position of authority. The emblem of Malludu was the flag of the tiger. Malludu was mentioned by Salgari in what may be seen as a basically correct historical context. His fundamental historical message privileges the "Malay" and not the "European" side. Salgari's anti-colonial interpretation thus finds interesting echoes in the modern discussion of nineteenth-century colonial expansion in Southeast Asia.
This essay demonstrates that the study of world politics should be situated in a cognitive approach, along with the study of foreign policy making. As I will show, the so-called "rationality-cognitive debate" has become a pseudo-debate. Theories of both foreign policy & world politics must be realistically grounded in the assumptions & knowledge of cognitive actors to advance our grasp of practice as well as theory. The basic assumptions of the approach are described, & the accumulated knowledge is reviewed in five critical areas: (1) the content of policymaker beliefs (from general images to specific preferences); (2) the organization & structure of policymaker beliefs (resulting in coherent vs fragmented images); (3) the common patterns of perception & misperception (eg, the tendency to categorize & stereotype, simplify causal inferences, & use historical analogies); (4) the likelihood of cognitive rigidity to limit change & learning; & (5) the impact on policy making (agenda-setting & framing, & formulation & choice). Although sensitivity to variation in cognition across individuals & cultures is increasingly important, international relations scholars cannot ignore the insights about human cognition if their theories are to reflect international realities. Adapted from the source document.
The Historical Approach versus the Judicial Truth : Judges and Historians. Recent trials involved in historical cases give the opportunity to establish the main characteristics of historical workshop and justice practices and to seek their analogies. Both historians and judges are confronted with social demands and are both responsible for the future of their communities, their criteria of judgement being dependent on the values of those communities. Even if their "truths" can not be delivered in the same way, they sustain the same sort of constraints and are inscribed within the same horizons.
Das Arbeitspapier über die Geschichte der Pfand- bzw. Leihhäuser in St. Petersburg ist Bestandteil eines durch die Volkswagen-Stiftung finanzierten Projekts über die Rolle der Leihhäuser für die Lebensstrategien einkommensschwacher Haushalte im gegenwärtigen Rußland. Die Studie beschreibt Entstehung, Organisationsstruktur und Funktionsweise der größten Gesellschaft in St. Petersburg mit einem Marktanteil von ca. 35 bis 50 Prozent. Die Ausführungen stützten sich weitgehend auf Gespräche mit dem Geschäftsführer des Unternehmens, einem ehemaligen Offizier der Roten Armee. Der Slogan der Firma "Let's go" spielt auf die Analogie zwischen einem Raketenstart und einer Unternehmensgründung an. (ICA)
It is argued that race as a social relationship is the basis of the political process in the US. A review of race & labor relations in colonial Virginia shows that the construction of whiteness was not generated by domination, but that domination took the form of whiteness (&, by extension, race). Racism & white supremacy have served to organize the structure of labor. The corporate state has produced a double economy. In the first system, derived from the plantation production-slave labor paradigm, there are the white corporate, ruling society & the nonwhite exploited population. In the second system, racialization promotes cohesion & allegiance to class in a white corporate capitalist economy. This explains why the socialist call for working-class unity has fallen on deaf ears in the US & why unionism has been so problematic & violent. 23 References. M. Pflum
The transformation processes within society which have been going on in Slovakia since 1989, are not only mirrored in the political sector and in all spheres of economic activity, rather they are also mirrored in the behaviour of the population and in their preferences of cultures and values. The demographic behaviour of the population in particular reacts very sensitively to the social transformation. When considering the population of Slovakia as a whole, natural movement plays an important role with regard to the dynamics. The development of natality and mortality, and in particular their proportionate relationship determine the growth or reduction of the population. The second component of the population movement -migration- does not have any great importance with regard to the growth and development of the population. In the assessment of the long-term development of the population of Slovakia, the tendencies towards stabilising development with the type of single reproduction proved to be dominant. This is given evidence by the long-term drop in the natality and mortality rate, and at the same time the reduction in natural growth of the population. The increase of average age in the population is a side-effect of this. The long-term tendencies of population development in Slovakia, which lead to a stabilised population and single reproduction, represent the natural components of social development. In certain analogies, this can be encountered in all European populations, and it can be presumed that similar development tendencies will take place in less developed states. The differences are expressed in the temporal asynchrony and are, of course, the result of different rates in the entire socio-economic development. In the evaluation of the population development in Slovakia during the last 6 years, the most general manifestation is the "acceleration" of the tendencies of long-term development. This applies above all for the drop in natality and the natural population growth, and therefore for the change in the age structure of the population. On the other hand, the drop in miscarriage rates, the increased age of maximum fertility and the marrying age can be regarded as positive trends. The acceleration of these development tendencies in the last six years is most noteworthy. The average annual drop in natality in the years 1950-1960 was, for example 0,11‰, whereas it achieved in the years 1990-1996 a value of up to 0,62%. The drop in values of net reproduction rate is also alarming. Since 1990, when it was at a level of 0.933, it sank in the year 1996 to 0.700. The drop in natural growth from 4,8% to 1,7% is also unusually intensive. The explanation of these negative development tendencies is quite complicated. The changes in the political and economic system in Slovakia took place in three stages. The first stage, in the years 1990-1993, had a destructive character - especially in the economic sphere. This was followed by a brief period of stabilisation - 1994-1996 - and since 1996, many economic sectors have revealed compensation and dev elopment tendencies. These stages of economic development are linked to several changes in the development of the population processes: The complicated economic situation effects a displacement of marriage, postponement of parenthood as well as a reduction in the number of children which are born. The lack of accommodation for young families is a very negative factor. The destruction phase of population development generally comes to an end when growth t endencies start to be revealed. It can also be presumed for the population of Slovakia that the negative development tendencies which were observed will not be a permanent manifestation. We can expect a positive influence of social measures which promote childbirth and, with time, also the compensation and development trends within the economy. It is very probable that the birth rate, the growth rate of the population and the reproduction rate will rise, without however exceeding the level from the year 1990.
