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This paper aims to identify the main risk groups according to their significance on imports of agricultural products. After analysis of the scientific literature, eight groups of risks associated with agricultural products import were determined: supply risks, demand risks, production risks, management plus operational risks, logistical plus infrastructural risks, political risks, policy plus regulatory risks and financial risks. In order to assess the importance of all import risk groups, three Multicriteria decision support methods (MCDM)-SAW, TOPSIS and Geometric means-for expert evaluation are used. The article introduces a new import risks assessment framework CIRA (Country's Imports Risk Assessment) contributing to the systematic approach of a country's international trade risks management. The results order risk groups according to their importance in the following order: production (the most crucial risk group), logistical plus infrastructural, financial, management plus operational, political, supply, policy plus regulatory and demand risks.

Each country faces both export and import risks in its trade. The analysis of this research seeks to answer the question about what kind of risks are posed by imports. The purpose of the document is to analyze the purpose of the import and most common risks posed by imports and to assess the trends in imports of Lithuanian agricultural and food products. A distinction between the main risks posed by imports is made. The importance of imports for foreign trade is discussed. The study is based on an analysis of the scientific literature and analysis of statistical data for an assessment of Lithuania's import trends. Empirical research covers the period of 2015-2019. Data from Statistics Lithuania and Customs Department are used. Analysis of total imports of agricultural and food products, distinguishing imports from EU and other countries was made. Also, trends of re-export and import to produce was made. The export of agricultural and food products of Lithuania has been positively affected by import. The directions for future investigations are completed

We use data on food import violations from the FDA Operational and Administrative System for Import Support (OASIS) to address rising concerns associated with imported food, quantify import risks by product and by country of origin, and explore the usefulness of OASIS data for risk assessment. In particular, we assess whether there are significant trends in violations, whether import violations can be used to quantify risks by country and by product, and how import risks depend on economic factors of the country of origin. The results show that normalizing import violations by volume of imports provides a meaningful indicator of risk. We then use regression analysis to characterize import risks. Using this model, we analyze import risks by product type, violation type, and economic factors of the country of origin. We find that OASIS data are useful in quantifying food import risks, and that the rate of refusals provides a useful decision tool for risk management. Furthermore, we find that some economic factors are significant indicators of food import risk by country.

Currency risk is a recurring theme in companies today. Even for those who do not trade foreign currencies directly, there is still a conversion exposure that cannot be ignored in risk management. The present study proposes to develop an exchange rate management policy for a small Brazilian importer. A case study of the company PPbr (pseudonym) was elaborated, who supplied data from recent years to build a FX risk management policy. To do so, I proposed a hedging strategy using NDF with maturation in 30, 60 and 90 days; based on two types of analysis: two-way sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation, obtaining the optimal hedge range for the company. To verify the solution's efficiency, I prepared a back test, using data from 2021 and compared the results using two methodologies: (1) a t-test for the liabilities quoted in USD; and (2) a Sharpe ratio comparison between the unhedged solution and the proposed solution. The comparison demonstrates no predilection between the solutions. The Sharpe ratio of the unhedged strategy is extremely close to the hedged one, showing that the risk - return of the hedged strategy may not compensate to adopt hedged position; whereas the return of the t-test demonstrates there is no statistical significance difference between the strategies. ; O risco cambial é um tema recorrente nas empresas de hoje. Mesmo aqueles que não negociam diretamente com moedas estrangeiras, ainda há uma exposição de conversão que não pode ser ignorada na gestão de risco. O presente estudo se propõe a desenvolver uma política de gestão da taxa de câmbio para um pequeno importador brasileiro. Para tanto, foi elaborado um estudo de casa da empresa PPbr (pseudônimo), que forneceu dados dos últimos anos para a elaboração de uma política de gestão de risco cambial. Para tanto, eu propus uma estratégia de hedge com o uso de NDF com vencimentos em 30, 60 e 90 dias, embasada por duas análises: análise de sensibilidade bidirecional e simulação de Monte Carlo; obtendo um intervalo ótimo para a empresa ...

The national residue monitoring plan is a programme aimed at the analysis of foodstuffs of animal origin such as milk, meat, fish and honey that has been carried out since 1989 in the European Union (EU) according to standardised protocol. In addition, import products from third countries are controlled as part of the import residue monitoring plan. The aim is to uncover the use of prohibited substances as well as the improper use of restricted substances, to control the adherence to established maximum residue limits of veterinary medicinal products and to reveal the sources of residue. In Germany, the residue monitoring plans are coordinated by the Federal Office of Consumer Protection and Food Safety (BVL). The sampling is organised by the Länder (German federal states), while BVL analyses the results and forwards the data to the European Commission. The Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR) analyses the results in respect to consumer health protection. In 2008, 50153 animal or animal product samples were analysed in the national residue monitoring plan. In 198 cases, prohibited substances or concentrations of substances that exceeded the established maximum levels were detected. 1341 samples were taken for the import residue monitoring plan, and in 31 cases the residues and contaminants exceeded the established maximum levels or revealed the presence of substances that are not permitted. No product group displayed frequencies. Overall, the number of positive findings was low. In its assessment of residue levels, BfR comes to the conclusion that even if maximum levels are exceeded, one-time or occasional intake did not constitute a consumers health risk. It was once again determined that the kidneys and livers of sheep are the foodstuffs most affected by heavy metals. BfR thus maintains its recommendation to principally abstain from the consumption of these. ; DE; de; efsa-focal-point@bfr.bund.de

International audience ; Background The lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is a dsDNA virus belonging to the Poxviridae family and the Capripoxvirus genus. Lumpy skin diseases (LSD) is a highly contagious transboundary disease in cattle producing major economic losses. In 2014, the disease was first reported in the European Union (in Cyprus); it was then reported in 2015 (in Greece) and has spread through different Balkan countries in 2016. Indirect vector transmission is predominant at small distances, but transmission between distant herds and between countries usually occurs through movements of infected cattle or through vectors found mainly in animal trucks. Methods and principal findings In order to estimate the threat for France due to the introduction of vectors found in animal trucks (cattle or horses) from at-risk countries (Balkans and neighbours), a quantitative import risk analysis (QIRA) model was developed according to the international standard. Using stochastic QIRA modelling and combining experimental/field data and expert opinion, the yearly risk of LSDV being introduced by stable flies (Stomoxys calcitrans), that travel in trucks transporting animals was between 6 x 10−5 and 5.93 x 10−3 with a median value of 89.9 x 10−5 ; it was mainly due to the risk related to insects entering farms in France from vehicles transporting cattle from the at-risk area. The risk related to the transport of cattle going to slaughterhouses or the transport of horses was much lower (between 2 x 10−7 and 3.73 x 10−5 and between 5 x 10−10 and 3.95 x 10−8 for cattle and horses, respectively). The disinsectisation of trucks transporting live animals was important to reduce this risk. Conclusion and significance The development of a stochastic QIRA made it possible to quantify the risk of LSD being introduced in France through the import of vectors that travel in trucks transporting animals. This tool is of prime importance because the LSD situation in the Balkans is continuously changing. Indeed, this model can be ...

International audience ; Background The lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is a dsDNA virus belonging to the Poxviridae family and the Capripoxvirus genus. Lumpy skin diseases (LSD) is a highly contagious transboundary disease in cattle producing major economic losses. In 2014, the disease was first reported in the European Union (in Cyprus); it was then reported in 2015 (in Greece) and has spread through different Balkan countries in 2016. Indirect vector transmission is predominant at small distances, but transmission between distant herds and between countries usually occurs through movements of infected cattle or through vectors found mainly in animal trucks. Methods and principal findings In order to estimate the threat for France due to the introduction of vectors found in animal trucks (cattle or horses) from at-risk countries (Balkans and neighbours), a quantitative import risk analysis (QIRA) model was developed according to the international standard. Using stochastic QIRA modelling and combining experimental/field data and expert opinion, the yearly risk of LSDV being introduced by stable flies (Stomoxys calcitrans), that travel in trucks transporting animals was between 6 x 10−5 and 5.93 x 10−3 with a median value of 89.9 x 10−5 ; it was mainly due to the risk related to insects entering farms in France from vehicles transporting cattle from the at-risk area. The risk related to the transport of cattle going to slaughterhouses or the transport of horses was much lower (between 2 x 10−7 and 3.73 x 10−5 and between 5 x 10−10 and 3.95 x 10−8 for cattle and horses, respectively). The disinsectisation of trucks transporting live animals was important to reduce this risk. Conclusion and significance The development of a stochastic QIRA made it possible to quantify the risk of LSD being introduced in France through the import of vectors that travel in trucks transporting animals. This tool is of prime importance because the LSD situation in the Balkans is continuously changing. Indeed, this model can be ...

International audience ; Background The lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is a dsDNA virus belonging to the Poxviridae family and the Capripoxvirus genus. Lumpy skin diseases (LSD) is a highly contagious transboundary disease in cattle producing major economic losses. In 2014, the disease was first reported in the European Union (in Cyprus); it was then reported in 2015 (in Greece) and has spread through different Balkan countries in 2016. Indirect vector transmission is predominant at small distances, but transmission between distant herds and between countries usually occurs through movements of infected cattle or through vectors found mainly in animal trucks. Methods and principal findings In order to estimate the threat for France due to the introduction of vectors found in animal trucks (cattle or horses) from at-risk countries (Balkans and neighbours), a quantitative import risk analysis (QIRA) model was developed according to the international standard. Using stochastic QIRA modelling and combining experimental/field data and expert opinion, the yearly risk of LSDV being introduced by stable flies (Stomoxys calcitrans), that travel in trucks transporting animals was between 6 x 10−5 and 5.93 x 10−3 with a median value of 89.9 x 10−5 ; it was mainly due to the risk related to insects entering farms in France from vehicles transporting cattle from the at-risk area. The risk related to the transport of cattle going to slaughterhouses or the transport of horses was much lower (between 2 x 10−7 and 3.73 x 10−5 and between 5 x 10−10 and 3.95 x 10−8 for cattle and horses, respectively). The disinsectisation of trucks transporting live animals was important to reduce this risk. Conclusion and significance The development of a stochastic QIRA made it possible to quantify the risk of LSD being introduced in France through the import of vectors that travel in trucks transporting animals. This tool is of prime importance because the LSD situation in the Balkans is continuously changing. Indeed, this model can be ...

International audience ; Background The lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is a dsDNA virus belonging to the Poxviridae family and the Capripoxvirus genus. Lumpy skin diseases (LSD) is a highly contagious transboundary disease in cattle producing major economic losses. In 2014, the disease was first reported in the European Union (in Cyprus); it was then reported in 2015 (in Greece) and has spread through different Balkan countries in 2016. Indirect vector transmission is predominant at small distances, but transmission between distant herds and between countries usually occurs through movements of infected cattle or through vectors found mainly in animal trucks. Methods and principal findings In order to estimate the threat for France due to the introduction of vectors found in animal trucks (cattle or horses) from at-risk countries (Balkans and neighbours), a quantitative import risk analysis (QIRA) model was developed according to the international standard. Using stochastic QIRA modelling and combining experimental/field data and expert opinion, the yearly risk of LSDV being introduced by stable flies (Stomoxys calcitrans), that travel in trucks transporting animals was between 6 x 10−5 and 5.93 x 10−3 with a median value of 89.9 x 10−5 ; it was mainly due to the risk related to insects entering farms in France from vehicles transporting cattle from the at-risk area. The risk related to the transport of cattle going to slaughterhouses or the transport of horses was much lower (between 2 x 10−7 and 3.73 x 10−5 and between 5 x 10−10 and 3.95 x 10−8 for cattle and horses, respectively). The disinsectisation of trucks transporting live animals was important to reduce this risk. Conclusion and significance The development of a stochastic QIRA made it possible to quantify the risk of LSD being introduced in France through the import of vectors that travel in trucks transporting animals. This tool is of prime importance because the LSD situation in the Balkans is continuously changing. Indeed, this model can be ...

The lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is a dsDNA virus belonging to the Poxviridae family and the Capripoxvirus genus. Lumpy skin diseases (LSD) is a highly contagious transboundary disease in cattle producing major economic losses. In 2014, the disease was first reported in the European Union (in Cyprus); it was then reported in 2015 (in Greece) and has spread through different Balkan countries in 2016. Indirect vector transmission is predominant at small distances, but transmission between distant herds and between countries usually occurs through movements of infected cattle or through vectors found mainly in animal trucks. In order to estimate the threat for France due to the introduction of vectors found in animal trucks (cattle or horses) from at-risk countries (Balkans and neighbours), a quantitative import risk analysis (QIRA) model was developed according to the international standard. Using stochastic QIRA modelling and combining experimental/field data and expert opinion, the yearly risk of LSDV being introduced by stable flies (Stomoxys calcitrans), that travel in trucks transporting animals was between 6 x 10 −5 and 5.93 x 10 −3 with a median value of 89.9 x 10 −5 ; it was mainly due to the risk related to insects entering farms in France from vehicles transporting cattle from the at-risk area. The risk related to the transport of cattle going to slaughterhouses or the transport of horses was much lower (between 2 x 10 −7 and 3.73 x 10 −5 and between 5 x 10 −10 and 3.95 x 10 −8 for cattle and horses, respectively). The disinsectisation of trucks transporting live animals was important to reduce this risk. The development of a stochastic QIRA made it possible to quantify the risk of LSD being introduced in France through the import of vectors that travel in trucks transporting animals. This tool is of prime importance because the LSD situation in the Balkans is continuously changing. Indeed, this model can be updated to process new information on vectors and the changing health situation, in addition ...

Background The lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is a dsDNA virus belonging to the Poxviridae family and the Capripoxvirus genus. Lumpy skin diseases (LSD) is a highly contagious transboundary disease in cattle producing major economic losses. In 2014, the disease was first reported in the European Union (in Cyprus); it was then reported in 2015 (in Greece) and has spread through different Balkan countries in 2016. Indirect vector transmission is predominant at small distances, but transmission between distant herds and between countries usually occurs through movements of infected cattle or through vectors found mainly in animal trucks.[br/] Methods and principal findings In order to estimate the threat for France due to the introduction of vectors found in animal trucks (cattle or horses) from at-risk countries (Balkans and neighbours), a quantitative import risk analysis (QIRA) model was developed according to the international standard. Using stochastic QIRA modelling and combining experimental/field data and expert opinion, the yearly risk of LSDV being introduced by stable flies (Stomoxys calcitrans), that travel in trucks transporting animals was between 6 x 10−5 and 5.93 x 10−3 with a median value of 89.9 x 10−5 ; it was mainly due to the risk related to insects entering farms in France from vehicles transporting cattle from the at-risk area. The risk related to the transport of cattle going to slaughterhouses or the transport of horses was much lower (between 2 x 10−7 and 3.73 x 10−5 and between 5 x 10−10 and 3.95 x 10−8 for cattle and[br/] horses, respectively). The disinsectisation of trucks transporting live animals was important to reduce this risk.[br/] Conclusion and significance The development of a stochastic QIRA made it possible to quantify the risk of LSD being introduced in France through the import of vectors that travel in trucks transporting animals. This tool is of prime importance because the LSD situation in the Balkans is continuously changing. Indeed, this model can be updated to process new information on vectors and the changing health situation, in addition to new data from the TRAde Control and Expert System (TRACES, EU database). This model is easy to adapt to different countries and to other vectors and diseases.

BACKGROUND: The lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is a dsDNA virus belonging to the Poxviridae family and the Capripoxvirus genus. Lumpy skin diseases (LSD) is a highly contagious transboundary disease in cattle producing major economic losses. In 2014, the disease was first reported in the European Union (in Cyprus); it was then reported in 2015 (in Greece) and has spread through different Balkan countries in 2016. Indirect vector transmission is predominant at small distances, but transmission between distant herds and between countries usually occurs through movements of infected cattle or through vectors found mainly in animal trucks. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In order to estimate the threat for France due to the introduction of vectors found in animal trucks (cattle or horses) from at-risk countries (Balkans and neighbours), a quantitative import risk analysis (QIRA) model was developed according to the international standard. Using stochastic QIRA modelling and combining experimental/field data and expert opinion, the yearly risk of LSDV being introduced by stable flies (Stomoxys calcitrans), that travel in trucks transporting animals was between 6 x 10-5 and 5.93 x 10-3 with a median value of 89.9 x 10-5; it was mainly due to the risk related to insects entering farms in France from vehicles transporting cattle from the at-risk area. The risk related to the transport of cattle going to slaughterhouses or the transport of horses was much lower (between 2 x 10-7 and 3.73 x 10-5 and between 5 x 10-10 and 3.95 x 10-8 for cattle and horses, respectively). The disinsectisation of trucks transporting live animals was important to reduce this risk. CONCLUSION AND SIGNIFICANCE: The development of a stochastic QIRA made it possible to quantify the risk of LSD being introduced in France through the import of vectors that travel in trucks transporting animals. This tool is of prime importance because the LSD situation in the Balkans is continuously changing. Indeed, this model can be updated to process new information on vectors and the changing health situation, in addition to new data from the TRAde Control and Expert System (TRACES, EU database). This model is easy to adapt to different countries and to other vectors and diseases. ; Peer reviewed