Suchergebnisse

Due to the particularities of SARS-CoV-2, public health policies have played a crucial role in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Epidemiological parameters for assessing the stage of the outbreak, such as the Effective Reproduction Number (R-t), are not always straightforward to calculate, raising barriers between the scientific community and non-scientific decision-making actors. The combination of estimators ofR(t)with elaborated Machine Learning-based forecasting techniques provides a way to support decision-making when assessing governmental plans of action. In this work, we develop forecast models applying logistic growth strategies and auto-regression techniques based on Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models for each country that records information about the COVID-19 outbreak. Using the forecast for the main variables of the outbreak, namely the number of infected (I), recovered (R), and dead (D) individuals, we provide a real-time estimation ofR(t)and its temporal evolution within a timeframe. With such models, we evaluateR(t)trends at the continental and country levels, providing a clear picture of the effect governmental actions have had on the spread. We expect this methodology of combining forecast models for raw data to calculateR(t)to serve as valuable input to support decision-making related to controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2. ; Centre for Biotechnology and Bioengineering-CeBiB (PIA project, Conicyt, Chile) FB0001 Comision Nacional de Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica (CONICYT) 21181435

Quantitative studies aiming at general explanations for the emergence of new political parties stress the importance of new issues and the programmatic behaviour of other parties. I connect these two aspects by arguing that the programmatic diversity of existing parties is a strong influence on the incentives for new party formation, as it determines the scope for possible programmatic innovations. I use two measures for programmatic diversity in order to capture the programmatic supply by existing parties. It can be shown that the explanatory contribution of programmatic factors is as high as or even higher than that of the factors usually cited in the literature on new political parties, e.g. electoral institutions. Moreover, the results underline the necessity of differentiating between genuinely new parties and splits from existing parties as subtypes of new political parties.

What are the effects of ethnopolitical cleavages within the state on its foreign policy? This question has not received much attention in the literature. The coalition participation of ethnopolitical parties in Belgium offers a unique opportunity to empirically evaluate the implications of ethnic politics for a state's foreign policy. Twice, nationalist politicians held the post of minister of development cooperation. The rhetoric and policy behavior of these individuals is compared with that of a "mainstream" minister of development cooperation. The article derives its expectations from the literatures on foreign assistance donor motivation, national identity, consociationalism, and coalition theory. The findings suggest that there is no statistically significant difference between nationalist and mainstream ministers of development cooperation. A potential explanation for this finding is advanced.

Kirsten Amundsen's "A New Look at the Silenced Majority: Women and American Democracy"

Empirische Untersuchungen, darüber, ob eher Arbeitslose neue Unternehmen gründen, als solche, die erwerbstätig sind, zeigen widersprüchliche Ergebnisse. Das liegt zum Teil daran, dass manche Studien die "industrielle Organisation von Regionen vernachlässigen und versäumen, angemessene Variable zur Darstellung von Marktchancen einzuschließen. Der Autor benutzt Daten amerikanischer Unternehmen des Einzelhandels und der Dienstleistungsindustrie mit mäßigen Einstiegsanforderungen, finden jedoch wenig oder keine Beweise für die Hypothese, dass Erwerbslosigkeit einen Anstoß zur Unternehmensgründung darstellt. Regionen der USA mit verhältnismäßig hohen Erwerbslosigkeitsraten zeigen bei breiter Palette von Industrien später durchweg keine unverhältnismäßig starke Zunahme der Anzahl von Betriebsneugründungen auf. Gebrauchtwarenläden und Werkstätten für Kraftfahrzeugreparaturen stellen mögliche Ausnahmen dar." (IAB2)