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Once again, Spain is in political transition. The death of Franco in 1975 provided the opportunity for rationalizing an awkward political system. The objective of the politicians who gathered to draft a new constitution was twofold: to organize a state that was to be both modern and legitimate in a society that is still in many ways 'pre-civic' but, at the same time, increasingly tied to the industrial and post-industrial West.

We develop a theory of political transitions inspired by the experiences of Western Europe and Latin America. Nondemocratic societies are controlled by a rich elite. The initially disenfranchised poor can contest power by threatening revolution, especially when the opportunity cost is low, for example, during recessions. The threat of revolution may force the elite to democratize. Democracy may not consolidate because it is redistributive, and so gives the elite an incentive to mount a coup. Highly unequal societies are less likely to consolidate democracy, and may end up oscillating between regimes and suffer substantial fiscal volatility. (JEL D72, D74, O15, P16)

Chapter 1: Introduction -- Chapter 2: Political Culture and Power Transition: The Case of Kazakhstan.-Chapter 3: Security Hedging After Nazarbayev? The Future of Kazakhstan's -- Chapter 4: The Kazakh Model? Dynamics of Regime Succession in Eurasia -- Chapter 5: Understanding Anti-Regime Activists' Failures During the 2019 Kazakhstan Presidential Election.