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Article(print)#21965
STOCHASTIC MODELS OF WAR ALLIANCES
In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Volume 7, Issue 2, p. 110-116
ISSN: 0022-0027, 0731-4086
L. F. Richardson in THE STATISTICS OF DEADLY QUAR- RELS formulated mathematical models dealing with the occurrence & prosecution of wars, showing that wars arise from measurable relations between nations & groups. It is concluded that, except for chance fluctuations, wars have been occurring at a constant rate throughout the 120 yr period 1820-1939. The role of chance processes in history is discussed. The application of a probabilistic model of group formation to the size distribution of war alliances extends this concept & explains the observed size distribution in the nations which fought in these tions joining & leaving war alliances with certain specified probabilities, obtained as follows: There is a fixed probability over time that any nation entering a war will fight by itself. The probability of it joining an alliance containing a particular N of nations is proportional to the N of nations already in alliances of that size. The probability of a nation leaving an alliance is independent of the alliance's size & occurs only when the entire alliance breaks up. Such a stochastic process eventually reaches an equilibrium distribution of sizes of alliances. Resulting from these assumptions is the Yule distribution, & the observed distribution of the N of war alliances with 1, 2, 3, etc, nations on a side fits the Yule distribution very closely. The rules for formation & dissolution are in accord with our intuitive assumptions concerning the dynamics operating in aggressive & peaceful groups. Such random processes play an important role in soc dynamics & in the occurrence of large scale historical events. Historians, recognizing this fact, could develop more quantitative historical laws. Modified AA.
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Stochastic Models in Life Insurance
In: EAA Series
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Security markets: stochastic models
In: Economic Theory, econometrics, and mathematical economics
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Article(electronic)#6August 1990
Security Markets: Stochastic Models
In: Economica, Volume 57, Issue 227, p. 413
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Article(electronic)#7June 1963
Stochastic models of war alliances
In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Volume 7, Issue 2, p. 110-116
ISSN: 1552-8766
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Stochastic models of financial mathematics
In: Optimization in insurance and finance set
2.5. Risk-neutral probabilities: alternative derivation of the Black-Scholes formula2.6. American options in the Black-Scholes model; 2.7. Exotic options; Chapter 3. Models of Interest Rates; 3.1. Modeling principles; 3.2. The Vašíček model; 3.3. The Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model; 3.4. The Heath-Jarrow-Morton model; Bibliography; Index; Back Cover
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Article(electronic)#10March 1983
Seasonal adjustment in a stochastic model
In: Statistische Hefte: internationale Zeitschrift für Theorie und Praxis = Statistical papers, Volume 25, Issue 1, p. 1-12
ISSN: 1613-9798
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Book(print)#112017
Level crossing methods in stochastic models
In: International Series in Operations Research & Management Science volume 250
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Stochastic models for social processes
In: Wiley series in probability and mathematical statistics
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Article(electronic)#13October 1991
Stochastic models for capital growth
In: Journal of economics, Volume 54, Issue 3, p. 267-281
ISSN: 1617-7134
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Book chapter(electronic)#141985
Applied Stochastic Models in Operations Research
In: Universitext; Optimal Decisions Under Uncertainty, p. 206-274
Article(print)#152003
Valence Competition in the Spatial Stochastic Model
In: Journal of theoretical politics, Volume 15, Issue 4, p. 371-384
ISSN: 0951-6298
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