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The paper proposes a panel model to the determinants of capital flow volatility to a group of 18 emerging market economies (EME) in the period of 2000 to 2011. It studies the robustness of the model regarding different volatility measures; analyses several types of gross capital inflow; focusing the role of government institutional quality and the development of domestic financial system (banks, insurance companies, and capital markets – stocks, bonds and derivatives). The EME analyzed represented roughly 95% of the Emerging Markets Bond Index Global – EMBIG in January 2013, being the biggest destination to international capital flow to EME according to the report of the Bank for International Settlements - BIS (2009). The main conclusion suggests that a reduction of capital flow volatility can be achieved by the adoption of policies that improve government institutional quality and promote development, stability and efficiency of the domestic financial system. ; O artigo propõe um modelo de painel para os determinantes da volatilidade do fluxo de capital para um grupo de 18 economias emergentes no período de 2000-2011. Avaliamos a robustez do modelo em relação a diferentes medidas de volatilidade e a vários tipos de fluxo de entrada de capital; e enfatizamos o papel do desenvolvimento do sistema financeiro doméstico e da qualidade institucional do governo. Os emergentes analisados representavam em Janeiro de 2013 aproximadamente 95% do índice EMBIG, além de constituírem as maiores economias emergente para destino do fluxo de capital internacional segundo relatório do Banco de Compensações Internacionais - BIS (2009). Os principais resultados sugerem uma redução da volatilidade do fluxo de capital mediante adoção de políticas voltadas para melhorias na qualidade institucional do governo e que promovam o desenvolvimento, estabilidade e eficiência do sistema financeiro doméstico.

In the 1950s, Brazil first made science and technology (S&T) an explicit item on its federal policy agenda. The international crises of 1970s interrupted the expansion of public investment in the area. Following 2000, relative macroeconomic stability brought back industrial policies based on systemic approaches to innovation. However, S&T policies initiatives have been overcome by the ongoing macroeconomic crisis and the governments' incapa­bility to maintain the macroeconomic stability. This paper discusses Brazil's S&T policy track record, taking into account institutional path dependence that has held back the orchestration of a long term development model. ; A partir de los años 1950 políticas explícitas de C&T fueron incorporadas a la agenda de los gobiernos federales en Brasil. Las crisis internacionales de la década de 1970 interrumpieron las inversiones públicas en el área. En los años 2000, una relativa estabilización macroeconómica llevó a retomar las políticas industriales basadas en concepciones sistémicas de innovación. Con todo, la reciente crisis financiera internacional y la incapacidad de los gobiernos para mantener la estabilidad macroeconómica han restringido la acción de las políticas de C&T. El objetivo de este artículo es rescatar la trayectoria de la agenda de las políticas de C&T en Brasil, a partir de los caminos de dependencia institucional que han retardado la construcción de un modelo de desarrollo de largo plazo. ; Foi na década de 1950 que o Brasil incluiu explicitamente o item Ciência e Tecnologia (C&T) na agenda política em nível federal. As crises internacionais da década de 1970, entretanto, interromperam o avanço dos investi­mentos públicos nessa área, que acabaram sendo retomados nos anos 2000 com políticas industriais baseadas em concepções sistêmicas de inovação, a partir de um cenário de relativa estabilização macroeconômica. Contudo, a recente crise financeira internacional e a incapacidade dos governos de manter a estabilidade macroeconômica têm restringido a ação de políticas de C&T. O objetivo deste artigo é resgatar a trajetória da agenda das políticas de C&T no Brasil, considerando a dependência de caminhos institucionais que têm retardado a construção de um modelo de desenvolvimento de longo prazo.

The authors aim at obtaining a simple econometric model that allows to build a confidence interval for the dispersion of the bids made by financial institutions at the Central Bank weekly auctions of short term securities in Brazil. Under competitive conditions it is assumed that the bids' dispersion is associated with the volatility of futures prices and the daily interest rates that had prevailed during the days prior to the auction. Based on that assumption the model succeeds in separating the two auctions with extremely high volatility. (Rev Econ Pol/DÜI)

This paper aims at discussing critically Persio Arida's proposal of adopting currency convertibility in Brazil. Arida (2003a, 2003b, 2004) points out that currency convertibility would make for lower domestic interest rates in Brazil, as well as for lower interest rates for the Brazilian external bonds. Besides, currency convertibility would stabilize capital flows, as well as exchange rate volatility in Brazil. We argue in this paper that this proposal does not lead necessarily either to less exchange rate volatility, or to lower interest rates. Besides, we close the paper by presenting some alternatives in terms of capital controls in Brazil. (Rev Econ Polit/DÜI)

In recent years, Brazil has faced economic and political crises resulting from the actions of an elaborate syndicate of corruption in the government. The financial literature points to two lines of thought related to corruption. One line defends the existence of benefits and the other points to losses in the public network. An event study based on the GARCHX-in-Mean model was conducted to understand the relationship between corruption and the decrease in the level of investment, and identify the potential impact of corruption on selected assets. The results indicate that there was a significant devaluation of the largest state-owned companies traded on the Brazilian Stock Exchange and in American Depositary Receipts, leading to money laundering and a decrease in economic growth. This supports the theory of long-term crisis due to corruption. ; Brasil presentó, en los últimos años, un escenario de crisis económica y política, resultado del funcionamiento de una elaborada red de corrupción en el gobierno. La literatura financiera apunta dos líneas de pensamiento relacionadas al tema corrupción: una que defiende la existencia de efectos benéficos y otra que apunta los perjuicios en el sistema público. A los efectos de entender la relación entre la caída del nivel de inversión y la corrupción, se realizó un estudio de eventos, con base en el modelo GARCHX-in-mean, que permitiera identificar la existencia y/o el potencial sentido del impacto de la corrupción para algunos activos seleccionados. Los resultados indican que, en Brasil, hubo una gran desvalorización en las mayores empresas estatales negociadas en la bolsa de valores nacional y también en sus American depositary receipt (ADR) que, consecuentemente, generó un escenario de fuga de recursos financieros e indicó una baja en el crecimiento económico, lo que apoya la teoría de perjuicio a largo plazo de la corrupción. ; O Brasil apresentou, nos últimos anos, um cenário de crise econômica e política, resultado do funcionamento de uma elaborada rede de corrupção no governo. A literatura financeira aponta duas linhas de pensamento relacionadas ao tema corrupção, uma que defende a existência de efeitos benéficos e outra que aponta os prejuízos no sistema público. A fim de se entender a relação entre a queda no nível de investimento e a corrupção, foi realizado um estudo de eventos, com base no modelo GARCHX-in-Mean, que permitisse identificar a existência e/ou o potencial sentido do impacto da corrupção para alguns ativos selecionados. Os resultados apontam que, no Brasil, houve uma grande desvalorização nas maiores empresas estatais negociadas na bolsa de valores nacional e também em suas American Depositary Receipt (ADR), consequentemente, gerando um cenário de fuga de recursos financeiros e indicando uma queda no crescimento econômico, apoiando a teoria de prejuízo em longo prazo da corrupção.

This study sought to identify the main drivers of and barriers to attracting capital market investments to the infrastructure sector in Brazil. The research findings indicate that the incentives vary according to the type of investor. Individual investors are strongly attracted by the tax exemption provided for in Statute 1,2431/2011 to purchase incentivized debentures, and, today, they represent one of the main investors in infrastructure in the country. On the other hand, domestic pension funds have no incentives based on this piece of legislation (their investments are exempt from income tax). For these pension funds, the spread paid by the issuers of incentivized debentures is low. Foreign investors consider the investment environment in the country to be unfavorable due to factors such as high exchange rate volatility and political instability. Therefore, broader institutional reforms are needed to fill the gap in infrastructure investments and attract long-term investors. Green certification of infrastructure projects represents another interesting strategy for attracting investments, especially foreign investors. ; Este estudio buscó identificar las principales motivaciones y barreras para atraer inversiones del mercado de capitales al sector de infraestructura en Brasil. Entre los resultados de la investigación se encontró que los incentivos varían según el tipo de inversionista. Los inversionistas individuales son fuertemente atraídos por la exención de impuestos prevista en la Ley nº 12.431/2011 para la compra de debentures incentivados y hoy representan uno de los principales inversionistas en infraestructura del país. Los fondos de pensiones nacionales, por su parte, no están incentivados por la exención de la ley (sus inversiones están exentas del Impuesto a la Renta) y consideran bajo el margen pagado por los emisores de debentures incentivados. Los inversionistas extranjeros consideran que el ambiente de inversión en el país es desfavorable, debido a factores como la alta volatilidad del tipo de ...

Despite the extensive privatization achievements over the last decades, government ownership of publicly traded companies remains pervasive around the world. Consistent with past evidence of structural change in the beta coefficient during financial crises, the more recent economic recession of 2014 to 2016 in Brazil presents an opportunity to demonstrate the disadvantages of allocating investment in companies that are publicly traded, but are controlled by the government. Constructing a portfolio of publicly traded State Owned Enterprises, we find that the financial crisis produced a significant increase in risk exposure, results that were much more pronounced when compared with a portfolio of privatized companies. The results also indicate that, in addition to a market factor, the poor performance can be explained by controllership. We believe this study adds to the longstanding debate on whether state-owned firms perform worse than private firms, with higher volatility and lower returns, particularly, during a period of financial crisis. ; Apesar de extensas conquistas da privatização nas últimas décadas, a governo ainda permanece como acionista controlador de empresas de capital aberto em todo o mundo. Consistente com as evidências anteriores de mudanças estruturais no coeficiente beta durante as crises financeiras, a recessão econômica mais recente de 2014 a 2016 no Brasil apresenta uma oportunidade para demonstrar as desvantagens de investir em empresas de capital abertocontroladas pelo governo. Construindo um portfólio de empresas públicas de capital aberto, descobrimos que a crise financeira produziu um aumento significativo na exposição ao risco, resultados muito mais pronunciados quando comparados a um portfólio de empresas privatizadas. Os resultados também indicam que, além de um fator de mercado, o baixo desempenho pode ser explicado pelo tipo de controle. Acreditamos que este estudo contribui para o longo debate, que discute se as empresas estatais apresentam desempenho pior que o das empresas ...

The design of the Bolsa Família Program (BFP) provides for the possibility of integrating state and municipal conditional cash transfers, based on the establishment of terms of cooperation with the Federal Government (or "pacts", as these instruments became known). The work systematizes the history of the PBF state pacts, implemented in the context of the Brasil sem Miséria Plan (BSM) - from 2011 - examining how much the changes in the program design, especially the creation of the Benefício para Superação da Extrema Pobreza (BSP), affected the use of this instrument of federative coordination, highlighting its limits and potentialities as a national strategy for coping with poverty. The advent of the BSP contributed to the decline of the pacts agenda, as it changed the federal government's strategy of financial support to overcome the extreme poverty gap on the part of the states for its resolution by the Union itself: that is, the The Union has, on its own, ensure that extreme poverty is overcome according to the national line defined for the BFP. This decision also equated the lack of effectiveness of the instrument of agreement in the induction of the state governments for that purpose. Regarding the limits of the agreements, it was identified difficulties of states with greater proportion of poverty to make financial contributions more robust; the volatility of political interests and the fluctuation of the theme in the state agenda; the low state capacity to act in a countercyclical manner and the fragility of the legal instrument mobilized to manage the pacts between federative entities. On the other hand, it was also possible to find in the pacts an experimental space for adjustments in the design of the programs, which in turn lead to the improvement of the PBF itself, since it has a unique design for the whole country and should be adapted to the different local realities so that it is better able to reach its objectives.