Essays on the economics of fertility ; Aufsätze zur Fertilitätsökonomik

Abstract

This thesis investigates patterns and determinants of fertility in Germany and consists of four empirical studies. The first study focuses on the development of teenage pregnancies and births in East and West Germany. Our regression analysis investigates the relationship between the probability of a teenage birth and various micro-and macroeconomic factors. The results indicate that a disadvantaged socio-economic background (e.g., low education of the teenager and her parents, unemployment, low per capita income, immigrant background) is associated with a higher probability of a teenage birth. We also find a positive relationship with the regional unemployment rate, which may explain the regional differences in teenage birth rates. The results highlight potential target groups for policy interventions. The second study investigates the causal effect of education on fertility over the life course. To enable causal inference, we use an exogenous variation in compulsory schooling as an instrument for education. We exploit a West German reform that was implemented between the 1940s and 1960s and extended the compulsory schooling from 8 to 9 years. We find that extended compulsory education has a permanent negative effect on fertility. We attribute the results to particularly high opportunity costs of childrearing in West Germany. The third paper examines the effects of a substantial change in the German parental benefit scheme on the timing of higher-order births. On 1st January 2007, a means-tested system was replaced by a new benefit - Elterngeld - that depends on pre-birth earnings. To identify causal effects, I use a combination of a discontinuity design and a difference-in-differences approach. The regressions yield heterogeneous effects. On average, the new benefit significantly reduces the probability of having a subsequent child within the first two years after previous birth. However, save for mothers at the lower bound of the income distribution, the negative effects vanish thereafter and disappear by the ...