THE DECLINE AND FALL OF BRITISH POWER

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the decline and fall of British power. "Power" is defined as the ability to influence another party and Michael Mann's four sources of social power is employed as an analytical tool.While on the face of it Britain possesses a number of indicators which suggest that it is a major power, it is argued that those indicators may not reveal the full extent of the decline of British power over a period of time and which has been accentuated by the outcome of the Brexit referendum in June 2016.The downward trajectory of power is examined through the prism of two examples. The first concernsKorea and Britain's involvement in the war of 1950–1953 but also through the influence of Britain's then prime minister with the US President over the defence of Europe as well as lobbying the US on its threatened use of nuclear weapons. The contrast with the British stance on the latest crisis on the peninsular could not be starker and the silence of the British government reflects the fall of British influence notwithstanding claims to the contrary post referendum of a "Global Britain".The second example concerns Britain's situation post fall of the Berlin Wall, post Gulf War and even post Masstricht Treaty (which saw Britain secure several opt outs from the European Union) and its role in 1994 in securing the territorial integrity of Ukraine. British influence might be viewed as still significant although the ejection from the Exchange Rate Mechanism – a blow to its Political Power and EconomicPower – was a modest harbinger of its vulnerability to economic crises – an all too familiar theme of its modern history. The events post Crimean occupation and post invasion of Eastern Ukraine witnessed the UK absent from the ensuing negotiations which were led by Germany and France from the European side. The UK was already withdrawing into itself from its (relatively modest political although not insignificant defence) role in Europe, let alone a Global role it purported to aspire to. The curves of both events intersect at a point on a downward trajectory.The paper, in addition to Mann's Four Sources of Social Power, is supplemented by the introduction of his fifth – "Leadership" as well as considering the use of the intelligence services, which constitute a blend of both political and military instrumentality employed to achieve a desired set out of outcomes to protect its interests and further its aims in the global order. The paper also considers the interstices of the various sources. In particular, attention is drawn to the fifth source noted by Mann – that of "Leadership" and that British sources of social power had particularly diminished during the Cameron and May governments and with it, its strategic outlook.The paper is the first in a series that will examine the Decline & Fall of British Power since 1945. ; Метою статтi є пояснення занепаду й падіння могутності Британії. У той час як Великобританія демонструє низку показників, які свідчать про її міць, у статті стверджується, що ці показники можуть не розкривати всю масштабність падіння британської влади протягом певного періоду часу, що було підкреслено результатом чергового референдуму в березні – червні 2016 року. Як аналітичний інструмент застосовується теорія джерел соціальної влади Майкла Манна. У роботі також розглядаються межі між різними джерелами соціальної влади. Зокрема, звертається увага на п'яте джерело, зазначене М. Манном, – «лідерство», а також на те, що британські джерела соціальної влади були особливо ослаблені за уряду Д. Кемерона та травневого референдуму. Ця стаття є першою в серії, присвяченій вивченню падіння й занепаду влади/потужності Британії з 1945 року.