Demographic projection techniques for regions and smaller areas: a primer

Intro -- Contents -- Preface -- 1 Introduction -- The Value of Population Projections -- Projections, Forecasts, and Estimates: Definitions -- The Basic Demographic Equation -- Overview of the Book -- 2 Mathematical Extrapolation I -- The Linear Function -- A Numerical Illustration -- The Exponential Function -- Linear Transformation of the Exponential Function -- A Numerical Illustration -- Polynomial Functions -- Linear Transformation of a Polynomial Function -- A Numerical Illustration -- The Hyperbolic Function -- Linear Transformation of the Hyperbolic Function -- A Numerical Example -- Summary -- 3 Mathematical Extrapolation II -- The Modified Exponential Function -- Linear Transformation of the Modified Exponential Function -- A Numerical Illustration -- Mathematical Extrapolation: A Review -- Choosing among Extrapolations -- Measuring the Prediction Error -- A Four-Step Projection Procedure -- Summary -- 4 Comparative Methods -- Ratio Methods -- Constant Share Method -- Projected Share Methods -- Difference Methods -- Constant Difference Method -- Projected Difference Method -- Choosing among Methods -- Summary -- 5 The Cohort-Survival Population Model -- The Basic Cohort Model -- A Numerical Illustration -- An Algebraic Summary -- Mortality -- Basic Measures -- Projecting Death Rates -- Fertility -- Basic Measures -- Projecting Birth Rates -- Summary -- 6 Migration Models -- Basic Concepts -- Immigration and Emigration -- In-Migration and Out-Migration -- Gross and Net Migration -- Causes of Migration -- Estimating Past Migration -- Direct Estimation of Migration -- Indirect Estimation of Migration -- Projecting Future Migration -- Extrapolation of Past Trends -- Regression Models -- Summary -- 7 A Final Note -- Mathematical Extrapolation -- Comparative Methods -- The Cohort-Survival Model -- Migration Models -- Summary.