Big Players and the Economic Theory of Expectations
Cover -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Part I. Introduction -- 1 Introduction and Summary -- Expectations and economic theory -- The role of expectations in economics as a social science -- Outline of the theory -- Part II. Methodology -- 2 The Misesian Context -- Introduction -- The methodology of Ludwig von Mises -- Schutz and Hayek -- 3 Schutz -- 4 Hayek -- Part III. Theory -- 5 Language Games and Economic Theory -- Introduction -- Language games -- The economy as a network of language games -- Coordination does not require common rules -- Natural selection of language games -- 6 Expectations -- Introduction -- Entrepreneurship -- Cognitive expectations -- Acognitive expectations -- Hayekian expectations -- Correlating cognitive and acognitive expectations -- 7 Big Players -- The general theory of Big Players -- Modeling Big Players -- Big Players in asset markets -- Modeling asset prices in the presence of Big Players -- Herding and contra-herding as error duration -- Part IV. Applications -- 8 Big Players in Czarist Russia -- The policies of Bunge and Vyshnegradsky -- The ruble and GARCH -- R/S analysis -- 9 The Angular Distribution of Asset Returns in Delay Space -- The compass rose -- Hypothesis testing with theta histograms -- A simple simulation of X-skewing -- Big Players induce X-skewing -- 10 Herding in Money Demand -- Money demand and the theory of Big Players -- The Federal Reserve as a Big Player -- Discussion and conclusion -- Coda -- How this book relates to the emerging new orthodoxy in economics -- Some suggestions for further work -- Appendixes -- 1 What is Verstehen? -- 2 What did Wittgenstein really mean? -- 3 An elementary set-theoretic model of language games -- 4 Notes on reflexivity -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Name Index -- A -- B -- C -- D -- E -- F -- G -- H -- J -- K.