Power transition theory and the peculiar case of Weimarian Germany

In: PRIF Working Papers, Band 28

Abstract

"For power transition theory (PTT) Germany offers a crucial case. Three wars initiated by Germany/
Prussia (the War of 1870/71, World War I and World War II) are among the chief vindications of PTTs central insight, that power transitions are prone to great power wars. In all three instances, Germany/Prussia was not only a rising power but also dissatisfied with the prevalent international
order just as PTT expects. However, between 1870 and 1939 there are two further periods in which
Germany reached parity with the dominant power in the 1920s. Peace prevailed according to PTT
because Germany was satisfied with the status quo of the international order at the time. In this
working paper, I will inquire into the Weimar Republics satisfaction status and show that PTT's
standard argument claiming that Germany was satisfied is problematic. I argue that to bring the
Weimar case in line with PTT it is necessary to adjust PTT in two ways: a) to discard the notion of
satisfaction as a dichotomous variable and b) to correct PTT's tendency to approach complex power
relations as if they were simple bilateral stand-offs. This finding has important ramifications for the interpretations of the current global power shifts and a possible future power transition." (author's abstract)