A Mass-Elite Comparison of Wishful Thinking

In: Social science quarterly, Band 83, Heft 4, S. 1079-1085

Abstract

Objective. The purpose of this article was to test the generality of wishful thinking by comparing mass & elite beliefs concerning the future of nuclear power in Sweden. Methods. Data from 11 (1986-1996) surveys of the public & a 1988 survey of the Swedish Parliament that included questions concerning preference & expectation regarding nuclear power were examined. Results. A tendency toward wishful thinking occurred consistently across years among the masses, but was considerably stronger among the political elite (members of parliament). The anti-nuclear segment of the public showed a weakened tendency to expect a preferred outcome. Conclusion. Ambiguity of the future outcome, involvement, & knowledge are discussed as key factors in determining the level of wishful thinking in a given context. 1 Table, 13 References. Adapted from the source document.