Political Shocks and the Deescalation of Protracted Conflicts: The Israeli-Palestinian Case

Abstract

An evolutionary framework is argued to be the most appropriate approach to the study of deescalation of conflicts. This is especially true when conflicts are protracted or when environmental crises exist. Though political shocks are "necessary but not sufficient" for deescalation, certain political shocks have been shown to facilitate deescalation. These shocks include such major events as defeat in war, economic crises, loss of foreign aid, & withdrawal of societal support for existing policies. When an evolutionary framework is utilized to describe the Israeli-Palestinian case, it becomes evident that political shocks helped to bring about deescalation & the 1993 Oslo Accords. Palestinian shocks included Israel's invasion of Lebanon, the PLO rebellion, the Intifada (accompanied by changes in Soviet support), & the 1990-1993 financial crisis. Each of these shocks allowed Arafat to strengthen his power in the PLO. Israeli shocks, such as the Likud policy monopoly, changes in Israeli public opinion, & the end of the Likud monopoly, allowed Yitzhak Rabin to dramatically alter his policies & strategies. 2 Tables, 78 References. K. Larsen