The Mobilization of the Swedish Vote: An Ecological Analysis of the General Elections of 1928, 1948 and 1968

In: European journal of political research: official journal of the European Consortium for Political Research, Band 19, Heft 4, S. 413-424

Abstract

The floating vote & the floating voter at three critical junctures in modern Swedish political history are examined using S. R. Thomsen's method of ecological inference (Danish Elections 1920-1979: A Logit Approach to Ecological Analysis and Inference, Aarhus: Politica, 1987). Ecological estimates drawn from Thomsen's approach support the notion that the Swedish elections of 1928, 1948, & 1968 were mobilizing elections, enticing significant numbers of new voters to the polls & generating considerable mobility between parties. The three elections could also be considered realigning, given their potential to establish a new status quo. It is suggested that right-wing parties were on the offensive in 1928 & 1948, while the Social Democrats held the initiative in 1968. However, because the new coalitions reflected instability, the floating voters were responsible for the difference between defeat & victory, particularly voters with a nonvoting history. It is argued that Thomsen's method for ecological inference is more effective than alternative regression methods. 8 Tables, 1 Figure, 14 References. S. Millett