Das International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) ist ein länderübergreifendes, fortlaufendes Umfrageprogramm, das jährlich Erhebungen zu Themen durchführt, die für die Sozialwissenschaften wichtig sind. Das Programm begann 1984 mit vier Gründungsmitgliedern - Australien, Deutschland, Großbritannien und den Vereinigten Staaten - und ist inzwischen auf fast 50 Mitgliedsländer aus aller Welt angewachsen. Da die Umfragen auf Replikationen ausgelegt sind, können die Daten sowohl für länder- als auch für zeitübergreifende Vergleiche genutzt werden. Jedes ISSP-Modul konzentriert sich auf ein bestimmtes Thema, das in regelmäßigen Zeitabständen wiederholt wird. Details zur Durchführung der nationalen ISSP-Umfragen entnehmen Sie bitte der Dokumentation. Die vorliegende Studie konzentriert sich auf Fragen zu Familie und dem Wandel von Geschlechterrollen.
Evidence illustrates that investment in infrastructure is essential to accelerate inclusive growth. Indeed, a number of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries have begun to devote greater resources to large-scale public investment projects. Nevertheless, while massive projects can potentially generate large benefits there are considerable risks. Cost overruns, poor implementation quality, inadequate operational and maintenance capacity, and negative social or environmental impacts can severely undercut a project's anticipated social and economic returns. Moreover, projects, which are expensive to develop and maintain can impact on debt dynamics and in some cases macroeconomic stability. Yet, given the complex nature of such projects it is often difficult to ascertain whether it is worthwhile to proceed with a project and if so, how should it be financed and implemented. Historically, computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been used to assess the prospective impacts of large public investment projects. However, such models are a complex and time-consuming process and are often too broad to precisely capture the localized impact of specific projects. This paper proposes a simple, but more user-friendly model. By inputting information on the project's construction, operation, and anticipated returns, the user is able to assess the project's net impact on the economy and weigh up the costs and benefits of different approaches. The model was developed in response to a request from the Nigerien authorities to assess the macroeconomic impact of Niger's Kandaji Dam project. It found that while costs would equal more than 10 percent of 2013 GDP during 2014-48, the expansion of domestic production spurred by increased demand during the construction phase will increase GDP by 0.25 percent above the baseline projection and boost fiscal revenues by an additional 0.45 percentage points of GDP.
During the 1960s and 1970s most developing countries imposed anti-agricultural policies, while many high-income countries restricted agricultural imports and subsidized their farmers. Both sets of policies inhibited economic growth and poverty alleviation in developing countries, while doing little to assist small farmers in high-income countries. Since the 1980s, however, many developing countries began to reduce the anti-agricultural bias of sectoral policies, and from the early 1990s the European Union began to move away from price supports to more-direct forms of farm income payments. This paper summarizes a forthcoming book that seeks to explain this evolving pattern of distortions to incentives conceptually and econometrically by making use of new political economy theory and a new globally comprehensive and consistent set of estimates of the changing extent of annual distortions over the past half-century. The distortion estimates involve more than 70 products that cover around 70 percent of the value of agricultural output in each of 75 countries that together account for over 90 percent of the global economy, and they expose the contribution of the various policy instruments (both farm and non-farm) to the net distortion to farmer incentives. Such a widespread coverage of countries, products, years and policy instruments has allowed this collection of studies to test a wide range of hypotheses suggested by the new political economy literature, including the importance of institutions. As a set it sheds much new light on the underlying forces that have affected incentives facing farmers in the course of national and global economic and political development, and hence on how those distortions might change in the future - or be changed by concerted actions to offset political pressures from traditionally powerful vested interests.
In this paper, the authors discuss the ways in which national governments, firms, and individuals respond to policy related to food safety, environmental protection, and trade. These responses must be considered in the development of policy to ensure the best possible outcomes. It accounts for uncertainty about policy impacts and scientific knowledge and incorporates stochastic environmental factors. The authors argue use of such a model in the development of health and environmental policy can overcome capture by domestic forces opposed to trade liberalization. The effectiveness of policy, of course, is dependent upon firm and consumer response to policy. Section one describes the impacts of international transfer of species and genetic material, paying particular attention to the introduction of alien invasive species. Section two discusses issues surrounding trade in environmental amenities. Food safety and environmental regulations are reviewed in section three, along with mechanisms by which such policy can serve as a proxy for protectionists. Section four develops a risk assessment model that can be used in policy design. Section five considers the role of institutional, firm and individual behavior in the development and effectiveness of policy. Section six summarizes our analysis in offering an agenda for trade talks.
L'objectif de ce séminaire était de mettre en commun un certain nombre d'expériences de pays africains, méditerranéens et latino-américains ayant mis en oeuvre des programmes d'ajustement structurel, et de tirer de cette confrontation des conclusions sur la manière d'aborder le problème de l'ouverture des économies et sur son impact sur les différents secteurs productifs. Après une série d'étude de cas dans différents pays, la création de trois groupes de travail permettant d'approfondir certains thèmes de réflexion (rôle de l'Etat, dynamique de l'ajustement, besoins en informations pour l'évaluation ex ante de l'impact des PAS) est proposée. En annexe figurent les textes présentés lors de ce séminaire
Das International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) ist ein länderübergreifendes, fortlaufendes Umfrageprogramm, das jährlich Erhebungen zu Themen durchführt, die für die Sozialwissenschaften wichtig sind. Das Programm begann 1984 mit vier Gründungsmitgliedern - Australien, Deutschland, Großbritannien und den Vereinigten Staaten - und ist inzwischen auf fast 50 Mitgliedsländer aus aller Welt angewachsen. Da die Umfragen auf Replikationen ausgelegt sind, können die Daten sowohl für länder- als auch für zeitübergreifende Vergleiche genutzt werden. Jedes ISSP-Modul konzentriert sich auf ein bestimmtes Thema, das in regelmäßigen Zeitabständen wiederholt wird. Details zur Durchführung der nationalen ISSP-Umfragen entnehmen Sie bitte der Dokumentation. Die vorliegende Studie konzentriert sich auf Fragen zu politischen Einstellungen und der Rolle der Regierung.
cf thèse ; L'objet de cette étude est d'analyser le fonctionnement des marchés internationaux et les répercussions de ce fonctionnement sur la gestion de l'entreprise. Dans un chapitre introductif, l'actualité du sujet est soulignée: depuis 1973, avec l'abandon du système des parités fixes, le fonctionnement des marchés financiers internationaux a été particulièrement chaotique. L'adoption d'un système de cours de changes flottants qui devait favoriser une allocation rationnelle des ressources au niveau international, a eu comme résultat le plus visible, l'apparition de variations de grande ampleur des cours de change à intervalles très rapprochés. Une telle modification de l'environnement international n'a pas été sans conséquences sur la gestion des entreprises; dans certaines conditions, en effet, il est apparu que les variations des cours de change ont pu modifier les résultats engendrés par l'activité des entreprises. Ces variations étant de plus en plus fréquentes, une sensibilité nouvelle s'est développée au sein des entreprises face à leurs répercussions possibles, et à la façon de les contrôler; ces variations n'étant plus le résultat de décisions politiques, mais le fruit du fonctionnement des marchés, il est apparu progressivement qu'une bonne compréhension de ce fonctionnement était nécessaire avant qu'il soit possible de définir une stratégie de l'entreprise à l'égard du cheminement des cours de change. L'idée que la compréhension du fonctionnement des marchés est nécessaire, non seulement à la connaissance économique, mais également à l'élaboration d'une stratégie d'entreprise peut sembler presque évidente dans un monde où les mécanismes de marché deviennent prépondérants. En ce qui concerne l'élaboration d'une stratégie à l'égard des variations des cours de change, il semble qu'une telle idée est valide dans la mesure où au moins l'une des deux conditions suivantes est réalisée: d'une part, si les prévisions effectuées par le gestionnaire sont dépendantes de la compréhension qu'il a du fonctionnement des marchés; d'autre part, si cette compréhension lui permet de mieux évaluer l'impact sur la valeur de l'entreprise d'une variation des cours de change. A priori, l'élaboration de prévisions des cours de change peut se fonder ou non sur une compréhension des fonctionnements des marchés. Au niveau de chaque agent économique, une prévision peut être effectuée, fondée sur une appréciation subjective (même si elle utilise des méthodes scientifiques) de la distribution de probabilité des cours futurs. Dans certains cas, cette appréciation est réduite à sa plus simple expression: la formulation d'un cours anticipé. Parfois s'ajoute à cette anticipation la prise en compte du risque associé à la forme de la distribution. En aucun cas, bien entendu, la prévision ne peut être assurée de coïncider avec la réalité: d'une part, parce qu'il existe objectivement, en raison de l'incertitude sur le futur, un risque de se tromper; d'autre part, parce que le caractère subjectif des prévisions effectuées augmente ce risque en proportion des capacités prédictives individuelles. Sans qu'il soit possible d'éliminer ce risque subjectif, il peut néanmoins paraître utile de l' "objectiviser", en fondant les prévisions sur une base plus large que l'appréciation individuelle d'un agent économique: une telle base peut être constituée par les anticipations de l'ensemble des agents économiques, telles qu'elles sont susceptibles d'être reflétées par les prix du marché. Une telle démarche nous ramène à l'étude du fonctionnement des marchés internationaux, et en particulier à celle des liens qui peuvent exister entre le mode de fixation des prix et les anticipations des agents économiques. De même, l'appréciation de l'impact des variations de cours de change sur la valeur de l'entreprise peut apparaître, au premier abord, comme étant dissociée de l'étude du fonctionnement des marchés internationaux. Une telle conception semble d'ailleurs justifiée par l'existence de règles permettant de déterminer cet impact, règles dont les fondements reposent sur les principes généraux de la comptabilité. Il apparaît cependant que les principes comptables ne permettent pas de définir une règle unique et incontestée permettant de mesurer l'exposition de l'entreprise à une variation du cours de change. D'autre part, quand bien même une telle règle existerait, elle ne permettrait d'apprécier l'impact des variations de change que sur la valeur comptable de l'entreprise, non sur sa valeur économique. Pour évaluer l'impact sur cette dernière, il convient de prendre en compte les liens existant entre les cours de changes et les prix des biens et services produits et utilisés par l'entreprise. Une telle reformulation du problème nous ramène une fois de plus à l'étude des marchés internationaux, et en particulier à l'examen des rapports entre les marchés financiers et les marchés de biens et de facteurs. Il apparaît, par conséquent, que l'étude du fonctionnement des marchés internationaux est le point de passage obligé de toute réflexion s'efforçant de définir les conditions d'une adaptation de la gestion de l'entreprise au cheminement du cours de change. C'est à cette étude que s'attache cette thèse, dans une première partie à un niveau global, en analysant l'impact du fonctionnement des marchés internationaux sur la valeur de la firme à la lumière de la littérature existante, puis en s'efforçant, dans une deuxième partie, d'étendre l'analyse au problème particulier du choix d'un horizon de gestion, à la lumière d'une étude théorique et empirique originale de la structure des primes de change à terme. Le premier chapitre aborde l'analyse de l'impact d'une variation de change sur la valeur de la firme en partant des pratiques actuelles de calcul de "l'exposition comptable" de l'entreprise, avant de passer en revue diverses méthodes proposées pour appréhender une "exposition économique" de l'entreprise. L'exposition de l'entreprise est définie comme l'élasticité de la valeur de l'entreprise par rapport à une variation du cours de change. Selon l'approche comptable traditionnelle, une entreprise est exposée à la variation du cours de change, dans la mesure où certains postes en devises du bilan sont exposés. Lorsque le cours de change, par rapport à la devise de référence, varie d'un certain pourcentage, la valeur en devise de référence de ces postes varie d'un pourcentage identique, provoquant par là même une variation de la situation nette du bilan. Un problème surgit cependant du fait qu'aucun principe comptable ne permet de définir quels postes en devises sont exposés. Aussi plusieurs méthodes coexistent-elles: la première, considérant que tous les postes en devises du bilan sont exposés, - la deuxième, que seuls les postes à court terme le sont, - enfin, la troisième, attribuant cette qualité aux seuls postes monétaires du bilan. Si le choix entre les diverses méthodes ne peut être fondé sur des principes comptables, on s'aperçoit en revanche, qu'il est possible de discriminer entre les diverses méthodes en fonction d'une analyse économique. En particulier, la deuxième méthode semble n'être pas sans rapport avec une analyse "keynesionne" du comportement du cours de change, ce dernier étant considéré comme imprévisible à court terme, mais devant se rapprocher d'un cours "normal" à long terme. De même, la troisième méthode, adoptée par l'ordre des experts-comptables américains, semble reposer à la fois sur le caractère imprévisible du cheminement du cours de change, et sur la conviction que ce caractère ne saurait modifier la valeur en monnaie de référence des éléments réels du bilan, dans la mesure où ceux-ci se réévaluent en proportion de la variation du cours de change. Ainsi, des arrières-pensées économiques ne sont pas absentes des définitions de l'exposition comptable de l'entreprise. Certains auteurs ont voulu aller plus loin en donnant des définitions économiques à l'exposition de l'entreprise. Le premier, LIETAER (1971) se borne à apporter certaines retouches à l'approche comptable, en introduisant entre les postes exposés et non exposés du bilan, des postes dont la valeur a, par rapport à une variation de change, une élasticité différente de un. D'autres, (DUFEY 1972, SHAPIRO 1975), étendent cette idée d'élasticités différenciées à l'ensemble des flux de liquidité engendrées par l'entreprise. HECKERMAN (1972) formalise cette dernière conception en élaborant un "bilan économique" à partir des flux de liquidités futurs actualisés de l'entreprise, et en étudiant les répercussions d'une variation de change sur ce bilan. Cependant, le modèle d'HECKERMAN est peu clair, en ce qu'il fait dépendre l'impact de cette variation de change de la variation de valeur d'un actif intangible dont l'existence apparait justifiée par la nécessité de maintenir en permanence un levier financier déterminé. Si l'on admet cette contrainte contestable, on peut néanmoins montrer que lorsque la variation du cours de change a un caractère purement monétaire, la valeur de l'entreprise ne change pas. Cette conclusion, inaperçue par HECKERMAN, n'est pas sans rapport avec certaines conclusions ultérieures de cette thèse. Néanmoins, elle ne peut ici être obtenue qu'en raison d'hypothèses très fortes et contestables du modèle, que les chapitres suivants s'efforcent de lever. Dans les chapitres II et III, une approche semblable à celle de HECKERMAN est développée, mais le cadre conceptuel est différent. Comme dans le modèle d'HECKERMAN, un effort est fait pour distinguer les conséquences sur la valeur des flux de liquidité futurs d'une variation du cours de change, en distinguant les activités réelles et financières de l'entreprise. Une entreprise dont les flux de liquidité sont en devises, sera considérée comme exposée, non pas si la variation du cours de change modifie sa valeur au cours du temps, mais si cette modification est différente de celle d'une entreprise identique ayant uniquement des flux de liquidité en monnaie domestique. Il s'agit en effet d'appréhender l'influence spécifique de la dénomination en devise des flux concernés, et non un autre phénomène économique qui modifierait simultanément la valeur de toutes les entreprises. De même, afin de vérifier qu'une variation de change est susceptible en soi d'avoir un impact sur la valeur de ces flux, l'analyse est menée dans le cadre de marchés internationaux parfaits. Ne sont donc pas abordés les effets pouvant résulter des opportunités d'arbitrage qu'offrent éventuellement les imperfections des marchés. Enfin, une distinction est faite entre les effets susceptibles d'être produits par la variabilité du cours du change, et par l'incertitude sur cette variabilité. Pour cela, une hypothèse un peu artificielle est utilisée dans le chapitre II : celle de la connaissance parfaite du futur. Cette hypothèse est relâchée dans le chapitre III. En univers de certitude, un raisonnement d'arbitrage intuitif permet d'établir, à la suite de nombreux auteurs, la validité d'un certain nombre de relations d'équilibre. Ces relations peuvent être classées en deux catégories : celles qui résultent d'un arbitrage en termes nominaux, - et celles qui résultent d'un arbitrage en termes réels. Les premières sont la loi du prix unique, la relation de parité des taux d'intérêt, la relation de "FISHER Open" entre la variation du cours de change et le différentiel d'intérêt, et la relation des anticipations sur les rapports entre cours à terme et cours futur. Les secondes sont la relation d'unicité du taux réel sur un bien, la relation entre ce taux réel et le taux d'inflation sur ce bien, enfin la relation de Fisher en économie fermée entre taux réel et taux d'inflation sur un panier de biens. Dans la mesure où ces relations sont valides, en particulier en ce qui concerne la loi du prix unique et la relation de "FISHER Open", il est facile de montrer qu'une variation (certaine) du cours du change ne modifie pas la valeur des flux réels ou financiers en devises, par rapport à des flux libellés en monnaie domestique. Il convient de remarquer que cette absence d'exposition à la variation du cours de change n'est nullement la conséquence de la parité des pouvoirs d'achats (CASSEL 1923), laquelle, même en univers de certitude, ne saurait résulter d'un simple phénomène d'arbitrage, mais constitue une théorie de propagation de l'inflation. Une telle remarque nous amène à critiquer les conceptions d'ALIBER (1976) quant aux relations d'équilibre sur les marchés internationaux. En univers d'incertitude, des quatre relations monétaires mentionnées précédemment, seules la loi du prix unique et la relation de parité des taux d'intérêt restent valides. Des homologues de la relation des anticipations sur les rapports entre cours à terme et cours futur, et de la relation de "FISHER Open", peuvent être proposés, mais ce sont des relations d'arbitrage spéculatif faisant apparaître une prime de risque. De même, des trois relations réelles, seule reste valide la relation d'unicité du taux réel sur un bien. De cette modification de ces relations d'équilibre résulte un certain nombre de conséquences quant à l'exposition de l'entreprise. Tout d'abord il est montré que les flux réels ont un impact identique sur la valeur de l'entreprise lorsqu'ils sont libellés en devises ou en monnaie domestique, que la variation du cours du change soit égale à celle anticipée ou non. En revanche, toute tentative pour couvrir les flux réels en devises par un contrat de change à terme serait susceptible de modifier la valeur anticipée de ces flux, dans la mesure où la prime de risque incluse dans le cours à terme existe. Même si une telle prime de risque n'existait pas, la valeur de ces flux réels pourrait être modifiée à posteriori si la variation de change effective est différente de la variation anticipée. Au contraire, du fait de la non validité en présence d'incertitude de la relation de "FISHER Closed" (contra ALIBER 1976) la valeur anticipée des flux financiers en devises non couverts est susceptible d'être différente de la valeur des flux financiers en monnaie domestique s'il existe une prime de risque incluse dans le cours à terme. Il en va de même pour la valeur à posteriori des flux financiers en devises lorsque la variation de change effective est différente de la variation anticipée. La couverture des flux financiers en devises futurs permet d'égaliser la valeur de ces flux avec celle de flux en monnaie domestiques. Ainsi, c'est bien l'incertitude, et non pas la seule variabilité des cours de change, qui est à l'origine de l'exposition de l'entreprise. Encore faut-il souligner que cette exposition est la conséquence des seuls flux financiers en devises, à l'exclusion des flux réels. Enfin, cette exposition est susceptible de se matérialiser par une variation de la valeur de l'entreprise, non seulement dans le cas où la variation de change effective est différente de la variation anticipée, mais également lorsque cette dernière se réalise, s'il existe une prime de risque incluse dans le cours de change à terme. Ce résultat est confirmé et étendu aux primes de risques incluses dans les cours de change à terme futurs lorsque l'on introduit les délais de paiements liés aux ventes à tempérament, et que l'on prend en considération la possibilité de différer le rapatriement des bénéfices réalisés à l'étranger. Ces conclusions reposent sur un raisonnement intuitif quant au comportement d'agents confrontés à des opportunités d'arbitrage et de spéculation sur des marchés des biens et sur des marchés financiers supposés être parfaits. Elles permettent de préciser la notion d' "exposition à la variation de change" dans un sens étonnamment proche de la conception des experts comptables américains. Elles doivent cependant, pour être retenues, être soumises à une double vérification, tant théorique que pratique. Sur le plan théorique, le chapitre IV a fourni l'occasion de confronter les résultats du raisonnement intuitif d'arbitrage avec ceux qui découlent des modèles théoriques d'équilibre général ou partiel des marchés internationaux. Ces modèles permettent de déterminer la forme des relations d'équilibre en fonction d'hypothèses spécifiques sur les préférences des consommateurs, et sur les ensembles d'opportunités auxquels ceux-ci sont confrontés. Les deux principaux modèles théoriques existant sont ceux de SOLNIK (1973, 1974) et de GRAUER, LITZENBERGER et STEHLE (G.L.S., 1976). Tous deux définissent les conditions de l'équilibre sur les marchés internationaux dans les mêmes termes : celui-ci est le produit du comportement de consommateurs qui répartissent leur richesse entre consommation présente et investissement, en maximisant l'espérance d'utilité de leur consommation présente et future. En revanche, les ensembles d'opportunités auxquels sont confrontés les individus, sont légèrement différents. L'investissement peut, dans les deux modèles être réparti entre l'actif sans risque domestique, les actifs sans risque étrangers, et les actifs risqués domestiques et étrangers, mais la consommation des individus varie selon leur nationalité pour SOLNIK, alors que pour G.L.S. les individus consomment un panier réel identique: seul le taux d'inflation (aléatoire) associé à ce panier est différent selon les pays. Il apparaît rapidement que la qualité de l'équilibre est affectée par cette hypothèse au niveau du panier de consommation. L'hypothèse de SOLNIK introduit un risque de change réel, lié à l'incertitude sur les prix relatifs des paniers nationaux, qui modifie les conclusions habituelles du Modèle d'équilibre des actifs financiers (MEDAF) (SHARPE 1964), et amène à reformuler ce dernier sous une forme originale. En revanche, chez G.L.S., le risque de change est une variable purement monétaire, lié à l'incertitude sur les différentiels d'inflation nationale, et ne modifie nullement la formulation traditionnelle du MEDAF tant que les individus ne sont pas victimes de l'illusion monétaire. Ces différences quant à la qualité de l'équilibre obtenu, ne sont pas sans influence sur la formulation des relations d'équilibre proposées dans les chapitres II et III. Sur le plan formel, les deux modèles montrent que le cours à terme reflète bien les anticipations sur le cours futur, mais de façon biaisée, du fait de l'existence d'une prime de risque qui rémunère les spéculateurs pour la position ouverte qu'ils acceptent de supporter. C'est la confirmation du résultat intuitif déjà obtenu, dont l'importance pour l'exposition de l'entreprise est cruciale. Cependant, la structure de cette prime de risque diffère selon les modèles. SOLNIK montre que la prime dépend de la covariance entre le cours de change considéré et les cours de toutes les autres devises. Le résultat de G.L.S. a une formulation beaucoup plus complexe, dont les auteurs ne précisent pas la signification économique. Il est possible de montrer que cette prime dépend essentiellement des effets réels des politiques monétaires nationales sur la richesse mondiale. En l'absence d'illusion monétaire, une prime de risque marginale subsiste, liée à l'incertitude sur le différentiel d'inflation. Cette prime est cependant virtuelle, car si les individus raisonnent en termes réels, ils ne souscriront aucun contrat de change à terme. En effet, dès lors que la parité des pouvoirs d'achat est vérifiée, le rendement réel d'un actif financier est indépendant de la devise dans laquelle il est libellé. En ce qui concerne les autres relations d'équilibre abordées dans les premiers chapitres, SOLNIK (1977) en donne une formulation complète et différenciée selon qu'il existe ou non des marchés à terme de marchandises. Les résultats valident et précisent ceux qui avaient été obtenus à l'aide d'un raisonnement intuitif d'arbitrage. En particulier, la relation de parité des taux d'intérêt apparaît chez lui comme chez G.L.S. découler automatiquement des modèles théoriques. Cette conclusion est contestée par ADLER et DUMAS (1975), qui montrent que cette relation n'est pas vérifiée lorsqu'existe un risque politique. Ceux-ci utilisent pour leur démonstration une fonction d'utilité quadratique. Leur démonstration est ici reprise et élargie; leurs résultats concernant la parité des taux d'intérêt restent valides quelle que soit la fonction d'utilité. Néanmoins ces résultats supposent des hypothèses très fortes, généralement incohérentes avec les conditions habituelles du fonctionnement des marchés. De même, un modèle de BARON (1976) valide la relation de parité des taux d'intérêt. Le modèle est intéressant en ce qu'il s'efforce d'intégrer les conditions macroéconomiques de l'équilibre et leur répercussion sur l'exposition de l'entreprise. Cependant, l'excessive simplicité des hypothèses de départ retire au modèle une grande partie de son intérêt. Ainsi l'étude des modèles théoriques d'équilibre permet de préciser et de nuancer certaines conclusions développées dans les chapitres II et III. Les principales relations d'équilibre sur lesquelles repose le calcul de l'exposition de l'entreprise, ont bien la forme qui avait été prédite. En particulier, la parité des taux d'intérêt reste valide en présence de l'incertitude, tandis que le cours à terme est bien égal à l'espérance du cours futur majoré d'une prime de risque. Cependant la portée pratique de cette prime de risque dépend de la validité d'une troisième relation : celle de parité des pouvoirs d'achats. Dans la mesure où celle-ci serait vérifiée, le risque de change relèverait de la pure illusion monétaire. Dans le cas contraire, cette prime rémunèrerait un risque réel, susceptible de modifier la valeur des flux financiers en devises. Ces conclusions des modèles théoriques doivent maintenant être confrontées avec les enseignements tirés du monde réel. L'objectif du chapitre V est double: vérifier, à la lumière de la littérature existante, la robustesse des deux principales relations d'équilibre sur lesquelles repose l'analyse théorique de l'exposition de l'entreprise; discriminer, en fonction des vérifications empiriques de la parité des pouvoirs d'achat, entre les deux modèles théoriques d'équilibre sur les marchés internationaux. La relation de parité des taux d'intérêts a été testée empiriquement par un certain nombre d'auteurs. Les résultats peuvent être résumés par deux propositions. Tout d'abord, si l'on adopte comme prédicteur de la prime de change à terme le différentiel d'intérêt calculé sur les dépôts en eurodevises, l'erreur prédictive moyenne n'est pas significativement différente de zéro; le résultat est sensiblement moins satisfaisant lorsque le prédicteur utilisé est le différentiel d'intérêt sur Bons du Trésor domestiques (ALIBER 1973). D'autre part, si l'on considère les coûts de transactions qu'engendrerait une opération d'arbitrage visant à profiter d'un différentiel d'intérêt couvert non nul, il apparaît que ce différentiel d'intérêt est inférieur aux coûts de transactions dans 100 % des cas, lorsqu'on le calcule par rapport aux euro dépôts, et seulement dans 33 à 100 % des cas selon les périodes lorsqu'on le calcule par rapport aux bons du Trésor (FRANFEL et LEVICH 1975). Si l'on tient compte des inévitables erreurs sur les variables liées à la difficulté d'obtenir des données parfaitement concomitantes, on peut donc considérer que sur les devises et pour les périodes ayant fait l'objet du test, la parité des taux d'intérêts a été largement vérifiée. Les tests de la relation des anticipations sur les liens entre cours à terme et cours futur répondent à la volonté de répondre à une double question : le cours à terme est-il un bon prédicteur du cours futur? La prédiction fournie par le cours à terme comporte-t-elle un biais, représentatif d'une éventuelle prime de risque. Sans entrer dans le détail des tests pratiqués, la réponse à la première question s'articule autour de trois idées. Le niveau du cours à terme apparait généralement comme un bon prédicteur du niveau du cours futur : cela tient essentiellement au fait que sur courte période, l'ampleur des fluctuations est relativement modérée par rapport au niveau des cours de change. En revanche la prime de change à terme est un prédicteur médiocre du niveau de la variation de change, même si elle semble prévoir avec une efficacité relative le sens de cette variation. Enfin, bien que la prime de change soit un médiocre prédicteur, ses performances ne sont pas plus mauvaises que d'autres prédicteurs, en particulier ceux fondés sur des modèles autorégressifs. Ce dernier résultat souligne cependant la difficulté de la prévision plus que l'efficacité de l'un quelconque des prédicteurs. La réponse à la deuxième question semble devoir comporter deux éléments. Sur longue période, la plupart des auteurs montrent que le cours de change futur n'est pas significativement différent du cours de change à terme: il n'existerait donc pas de biais moyen, représentatif d'une prime de risque stable quant à son ampleur et à son signe. En revanche une étude approfondie par ROLL et SOLNIK (1975), confortée par une lecture fine des tests pratiqués par d'autres auteurs (KOLHAGEN 1974) semble confirmer l'existence d'un biais instable, représentatif d'une prime de risque dont le signe et l'ampleur peuvent varier d'une période à l'autre. Enfin, l'analyse de la littérature consacrée à la parité des pouvoirs d'achat permet de discriminer entre les deux modèles théoriques. En effet, la parité des pouvoirs d'achat semble assez largement vérifiée dans deux cas: Si l'on compare le différentiel d'inflation à la variation de change sur une très longue période, ou si les indices de prix utilisés sont ceux des prix de gros. En revanche, à court terme, si les indices de prix utilisés sont ceux des prix de détail, la parité des pouvoirs d'achats n'est pas vérifiée; bien plus, l'erreur prédictive constatée ne permet pas d'inférer les variations ultérieures du cours de change. Par conséquent, au moins à court terme, il semble bien que ce soit le modèle de SOLNIK (1973, 1974) qui soit validé empiriquement, dans la mesure où les bons résultats obtenus avec les indices de prix de gros reflètent plus la validité de la loi du prix unique que celle de la parité des pouvoirs d'achat au sens classique du terme. Ainsi l'analyse critique développée dans cette première partie, à la fois sur le plan théorique et sur le plan empirique, de la littérature sur les marchés internationaux permet de formuler deux conclusions importantes. D'une part, en ce qui concerne la mesure de l'exposition de l'entreprise, celle-ci dépend uniquement de l'existence de flux financiers en devises; elle est proportionnelle, pour chaque maturité, à la prime de risque incluse dans le cours à terme, en ce qui concerne l'exposition anticipée, et à l'écart entre ce cours et le cours au comptant réalisé, en ce qui concerne l'exposition au risque de change. D'autre part, au niveau des stratégies envisageables, l'analyse des marchés internationaux ne fournit pas, ainsi qu'il est observé au chapitre VI, les bases théoriques d'un choix entre ces stratégies. Un tel choix ne peut résulter que d'une théorie de l'entreprise, en tant qu'intermédiaire entre les individus et les marchés. Elle fournit en revanche des indications sur les conséquences de certaines stratégies. Il apparait notamment que la couverture systématique des flux financiers permet d'éliminer totalement l'exposition de l'entreprise, tandis que l'acceptation d'un certain degré de risque s'accompagne, du fait des effets positifs de l'exposition anticipée, d'une amélioration de la rentabilité anticipée. La richesse de l'analyse des marchés internationaux n'est cependant pas épuisée par les résultats obtenus dans la première partie. Cette analyse peut en effet être poursuivie et approfondie, de façon à examiner les conséquences du fonctionnement des marchés sur les stratégies que l'entreprise peut adopter dans le choix d'un horizon de gestion. Dans les chapitres précédents, le raisonnement théorique et les vérifications empiriques ont été menés comme si le temps pouvait être divisé en deux périodes : le présent et le futur. Un effort est mené dans les chapitres VII et VIII pour élargir ce cadre d'analyse et réexaminer les résultats obtenus lorsque le futur comporte lui-même plusieurs horizons. Dans le chapitre VII, un modèle théorique est développé, qui reprend la plupart des hypothèses de celui de SOLNIK (1977), mais qui considère que les agents économiques maximisent l'espérance d'utilité de leur consommation présente et future sur trois périodes. Les principales relations d'équilibre établies aux chapitres III et V sont réexaminées à la lumière de ce modèle. Les résultats sont formellement identiques à ceux déjà obtenus, si l'on considère les relations entre la période présente et l'une ou l'autre des deux périodes futures. En particulier, la relation de FISHER en économie fermée, la relation de "FISHER Open", la relation de parité des pouvoirs d'achat et la relation entre cours à terme et cours futur ont une formulation différente en univers incertain de celle qui prévaut en univers certain. En revanche, si l'on considère les rapports entre les deux périodes futures, les relations précédentes ont une formulation identique à celle qui prévaut en univers certain. En particulier le cours de change à terme futur ne commande à priori aucune prime par rapport au cours au comptant pour la maturité considérée. Un tel résultat, surprenant au premier abord, est cependant logique: pour un investisseur à l'instant t, il n'est pas moins risqué de spéculer sur la valeur du cours à terme au t + 1 que sur celle du cours au comptant en t + 2. Enfin le modèle théorique permet de spécifier une nouvelle relation d'équilibre: celle, traditionnelle, de la structure des taux d'intérêt. Il apparaît que les taux longs comportent une prime par rapport aux taux courts anticipés, si l'utilité marginale de la dépense en deuxième période n'est pas indépendante du rapport des utilités marginales de la dépense en deuxième et troisième période. A contrario, si l'achat d'un panier de consommation supplémentaire donne la même satisfaction en périodes deux et trois, la structure des taux d'intérêt sur cet horizon sera sans biais. En revanche le modèle théorique ne permet pas de définir une structure maturité des primes de change à terme. En effet, un effort pour préciser la structure de la prime de risque selon la maturité a été tenté, en utilisant une fonction d'utilité particulière. Le résultat ne permet pas d'établir un lien entre les primes de risque selon les maturités. En revanche, il permet pour chaque maturité de montrer que la prime de risque sur une devise particulière est égale au produit de la prime de risque du marché par un coefficient de volatilité. Ainsi retrouve-t-on au niveau de chaque maturité un résultat traditionnel de la théorie financière moderne. Un tel résultat permet d'apprécier pour chaque devise et chaque maturité, la façon selon laquelle une position spéculative est rémunérée par rapport à une position bien diversifiée. Il ne permet pas, en revanche, de comparer l'intérêt de positions dans une même devise pour deux maturités différentes. L'étude empirique entreprise dans le chapitre VIII s'efforce à la fois de vérifier la validité du modèle théorique, et de suppléer à ses silences en ce qui concerne les rapports entre les diverses maturités. Un test du modèle théorique de marché est effectué par la régression des primes de risque individuelles pour diverses maturités sur un indice de marché naïf égal à la somme pondérée des primes de risque sur quatre devises. Le test fait apparaitre des coefficients de détermination relativement élevés, entre 50 et 30 %. Les coefficients de volatilité ne sont pas très différenciés entre les devises, et restent relativement stables pour des maturités différentes. L'étude fait cependant apparaître un rôle particulier du Franc suisse, qui commande une prime constante par rapport à toutes les autres devises. Lorsque le Franc suisse est pris comme base, on obtient une différenciation importante entre les devises, le dollar apparaissant très volatile, le deutsche mark très peu volatile, surtout pour les plus courtes maturités. Quant à la prime de risque moyenne du marché, elle semble augmenter proportionnellement à l'horizon choisi. L'étude empirique s'efforce ensuite de différencier entre les maturités, en ce qui concerne .la capacité prédictive des individus d'abord, puis en ce qui concerne les relations entre cours au comptant et à terme. En ce qui concerne la capacité prédictive des individus une étude ponctuelle a été réalisée auprès de treize cambistes parisiens sur leurs prévisions des cours du dollar et du mark pour diverses maturités. Cette enquête révèle une très grande homogénéité des prévisions, un très faible écart entre les cours à terme et les prévisions, et un très fort écart entre prévisions et réalisations. Cependant, l'écart est relativement moindre pour les maturités moyennes (2 ou 3 mois) que pour les courtes ou longues maturités. Enfin, les relations entre cours à terme et au comptant sont examinées. La capacité prédictive du cours à terme à l'égard du cours au comptant futur apparaît comme très faible et peu différenciée selon la maturité. Le dollar occupe une place particulière dans la mesure où ses variations semblent avoir fait l'objet d'erreurs systématiques de prévision. D'autre part, un effort est fait pour appréhender les relations entre cours à terme de maturités différentes. Les résultats de cet effort sont mitigés. En effet, la structure des cours à terme apparaît comme un mauvais prédicteur de la variation future du cours de change. En revanche, la capacité prédictive de la structure des cours à terme à l'égard de la prime de change future apparaît assez importante. De plus, cette capacité est assez différenciée selon les devises et l'horizon considéré. Dans le cas du Franc français cette différence est suffisamment sensible pour suggérer la possibilité d'une stratégie de spéculation dans un sens déterminé. Ainsi l'analyse théorique et pratique de la structure des primes de change à terme permet de compléter les résultats obtenus dans la première partie. Le fait que la structure horizontale des primes de risque obéit à la logique d'un modèle de marché pour chaque maturité semble une conclusion importante. Il implique qu'une entreprise souhaitant conserver une position ouverte en maximisant la rémunération de son risque doit conserver une position diversifiée en devises, maturité par maturité. Les résultats empiriques indiquent d'autre part que le risque encouru est proportionnel à l'éloignement de l'horizon. Ils suggèrent en revanche, sur la base d'une étude ponctuelle, qu'il pourrait exister un horizon de prévision privilégié. Enfin, ils semblent ne pas exclure la possibilité de définir des stratégies naïves de spéculation, en fonction d'une certaine rigidité de fait de la structure des primes de change à terme. Néanmoins certains résultats empiriques restent peu satisfaisants. Ils indiquent que des progrès restent à faire dans la compréhension du comportement des agents sur le marché des changes. En particulier une analyse plus fine des séries statistiques paraît souhaitable, en même temps qu'il conviendrait de préciser l'impact vraisemblable des imperfections des marchés.
학위논문 (석사) -- 서울대학교 대학원 : 국제농업기술대학원 국제농업기술학과, 2020. 8. 서교. ; Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are considered key factors driving climate change, and electric vehicles (EVs) are proposed as a potential solutions. EVs represent eco-friendly modes of transportation that do not emit carbon dioxide and other GHGs into the atmosphere. In addition, the energy sources associated with EVs would reduce GHG emissions, which have steadily increased over the last several decades. The energy sector accounts for 93% of the total national GHG emissions among five sectors, including industrial processing, agriculture, land-use change and forestry, waste, and energy. Although all of these sectors contribute to GHG emissions. the energy sector is the major source of GHG emissions. Among the numerous sub-sectors under the energy sector, GHG emissions of the road transport sub-sector accounted for 95.9% of the total emissions in the transport sector, with 94,270 Gt CO2e in 2017. The Korean government proposed the adoption of eco-friendly vehicles to achieve the GHG reduction goals in line with the Paris Climate Agreement, which goes into effect in 2021. In addition, the government have proposed promoting eco-friendly vehicles as a strategy of achieving a 37% reduction of the 851 million ton CO2e GHG emissions forecast by 2030. The Korean government has proposed various policies to increase the adoption of EVs, as eco-friendly cars, with the aim of reducing GHG emissions. The government has set a goal of 3 million EVs by 2030, and has provided various incentives such as tax exemptions, purchase subsidies, highway tolls, and discounts on parking fees in public parking facilities to promote the purchases of eco-friendly cars in Korea. Despite these favorable government policies, the rate of EV adoption in Korea has fallen short of expectations. Compared to the goal of 3 million EVs by 2030, the number of EVs registered in Korea in 2019 was only approximately 8.8t thousand which was far below the high goal set by the government. In 2019, only 0.5% of all passenger vehicles in Korea were EVs. According to a survey to evaluate the perceptions of actual buyers of EVs in Korea and the willingness of prospective buyers to purchase EVs, in general, current owners reported that they would not repurchase EV. Prospective buyers reported that they would not purchase EVs for reasons such as reduced subsidies, long charging times, and the short driving range of EVs. In terms of charging, which is a key factor for EV owners, KEPCO's detailed plan for the electricity supply include significantly increasing charging fees for EVs starting in the second half of 2020. Consequently, the charging costs that purchasers of EVs need to pay will increase further and will negatively affect intention to purchase. However, following implementation of the government's policy of propagation of EVs and according to various studies, the EV adoption is still expected to increase, and improvements in power generation could lead to an increase in EV purchases. Although no pollutants are emitted while driving EVs, policies that promote an increase in EVs do not take into account the life cycles of EVs from pre-manufacturing to the disposal, and thus, they do not adequately predict the potential environmental impacts. In the life cycle of EVs, the production of the electricity required for the operation of EVs generates the highest amount of GHG emissions during the use stage. Thus, production of EVs still has a major impact on the environment. Since such environmental impacts depend on the energy mix, environmental impact assessments should consider the national energy mix. New environmental impact assessment activities are needed and such activities should consider changes in the energy mix and changes in the propagation of EVs. These activities would impact the outcomes in two categories, global warming potential and particulate matter potential, which are both linked to automobile use and energy production. As interest in EVs has increased, numerous studies on the propagation of EVs have been conducted. As a result, various factors that influence the spread of EVs have been identified. In the majority of the studies that have examined the factors influencing the spread of EVs, panel analysis has been conducted using annual data at the national level. Subsidies, which is a major factor influencing EV uptake in Korea, are divided into the national subsidy and regional subsidies. Therefore, regional characteristics should be taken into account and analyzed at the regional level since different regions (e.g., Jeju Island) have unique operational environments for EVs. In addition, few studies have examined the balance of subsidies or the change in the number of supportable EV residuals based on monthly data rather than annual data. Several studies have also focused on the propagation of EVs using system dynamics, but, most studies have been qualitative research rather than quantitative research. In addition, numerous studies have evaluated environmental effects by applying changes in the energy mix. However, few studies have considered both the propagation of EVs and their environmental impacts. Therefore, the present study evaluates the impact of subsidy policies on the propagation of EVs by region and environmental improvement effects. First, we investigated the factors influencing the propagation of EVs using monthly panel data by region. Changes in EV uptake were then analyzed by region based on identified factors. Lastly, to analyze the environmental implications of EV propagation, the environmental improvement impacts of EV propagation were analyzed considering the national grid power supply plan based on a life cycle assessment (LCA). Our analysis of EV propagation based on monthly time series data by region aimed to quantitatively analyze the factors influencing the spread of EVs in Korea. This study confirmed the stationarity of the factors considering the influence of seasonality in the monthly time series data based on regional characteristics. In addition, an EV propagation model was designed based on panel fixed effect and panel random effect models, using the Hausman test. Analysis of the factors influencing EV propagation in 16 cities and provinces in Korea using panel fixed effect and panel random effect models, revealed that the EV propagation models had explanatory powers of 48% and 50%, respectively. The factors classified in the five categories had different effects depending on the model, and the panel fixed effect using the Hausman test was more appropriate for describing the model. However, more variables in the panel random effect model were analyzed as significant factors than in the fixed effect model. The number of newly registered diesel vehicles and the total number of newly registered passenger vehicles in the vehicle category had negative and positive effects on EV propagation, respectively, in both the panel fixed effect model and the panel random effect model. However, in the random effect model, the prices of diesel and gasoline vehicles also influenced EV propagation. In the panel fixed effect model, only the national subsidy and regional subsidies showed positive effects on the propagation of EVs. The random effect model also showed that a tax exemption, which had a positive effect on the spread of EVs, was also a factor influencing EV propagation. The population density in the census category, the number of vehicles per capita, and the PM10 concentration, representing environmental factors, were analyzed as influential factors in both models. In addition, the monthly average and minimum temperatures in the climate category, which could reveal whether weather conditions in each region influence EV spread, were found to be influential in the panel fixed effect model. However, in the panel random effect model, all factors in the climate category were not influential. The system dynamics model of EV propagation was based on factors influencing the spread of EVs. The present study used the Stella Architect software platform to analyze dynamic changes in the spread of EVs by region. system dynamics is a technique that identifies dynamic change mechanisms of targets, and shows systemic trends with a non-linear feedback system and simulates and analyzes them based on various factors. In the present study, we used system dynamics to estimate the number of EVs propagated by region. A bull's eye diagram, causal loop diagram, and stock-flow diagram were constructed, and factors such as subsidies, charging facilities, fuel prices, electricity prices, and the number of vehicles by fuel applied. The system dynamics modeling was conducted based on correlations between variables. The system dynamics model of EV propagation by region was applied using the number of new EVs registered as the dependent variable to reveal differences based on regional characteristics. The subsidy variables were divided into national and regional variables, and the number of newly registered EVs was set as the dependent variable and multiple regression analysis was conducted. In addition, four policy scenarios – Subsidy Cliff, Phase-out, Phase-in 50%, and Phase-in 350% – were adopted to verify whether the 2030 EV goal set by the government could be achieved. According to the analysis, 1.37 million EVs would be adopted in 2030 under the Subsidy Cliff scenario, 1.40 million under the Phase-out scenario, 1.87 million under the Phase-in 50% scenario, and 3.01 million under the Phase-in 350% scenario. The results from these scenarios show that three scenarios, excluding the Phase-in 350% scenario, in which subsidies would increase to 350% by 2030, would require an additional 1.63 million, 1.60 million, and 1.13 million EVs, respectively, to achieve the national EV propagation goal. Under the four scenarios, the regions where the largest number of EVs would be adopted by 2030 were Jeju, Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Daegu. However, the result of the analysis of the spread of EVs compared to the number of residents were contrary to the results of the analysis of the number of EVs based on region. Jeju, Ulsan, Gangwon, and Jeonnam would have the largest number of EVs per capita by 2030. Except for Jeju, the three other regions did not have many EVs compared to the total number of EVs, but the regions would have many EVs compared to the relatively low populations (i.e., EV per capita). Ulsan was projected to have the lowest number of EVs in Korea. However, considering the population, Ulsan would have the largest number of EVs per capita, except for Jeju, which is considered an effect similar to that observed in Ulsan, where an automobile factory is located. The results illustrate the potential propagation of EVs in regions where EVs are produced or where factories are located. The life cycle assessment (LCA) used to analyze the environmental impacts of EV propagation was based on the national power supply plan. LCA is an analysis method that quantifies the environmental impact of products or services. Prior to analyzing the propagation of EVs, the LCA of electricity production of EVs was evaluated at the goal and scope stages, and 1kWh of electricity production was set as a functional unit for the LCA. In addition, the inventory of pollutants generated during electricity production was analyzed. With regard to the environmental impact of the number of EVs propagated, the annual mileage provided by the KOSIS was applied based on an 11-year vehicle lifespan of EVs. In addition, the 8th Power Supply and Demand Plan and the additional energy transition option of coal-fired power generation to renewable energy were applied for comparative analyses. The 8th Plan was calculated based on the rated capacity presented as an environmental option, and the application of the energy transition to renewable energy. The GHG emissions of EVs were 81.7g CO2e/VKT under the 8th Plan option, and 37.2g CO2e/VKT for the energy transition option to renewable energy. The energy transition option, showed the lowest GHG emissions, with emissions that were 3.1 times lower than emission of the actual energy mix in 2016, and 4.57-fold and 4.25-fold lower compared to gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles, respectively. In addition, considering the recent rise in particulate matter-related issues, the environmental impact of particulate matter emissions from vehicles was analyzed. EVs. EVs emitted 20.7 mg PMe/VKT per 1km of driving. When the energy transition plan option was applied, PM emissions were less than those emitted by internal combustion engine vehicles. In the present study, monthly regional panel data were used to analyze factors influencing the propagation of EVs. However, panel analysis was conducted using monthly data rather than annual data. However, there were data acquisition limits that varied across regions. In particular, major factors such as the charging facilities and charging price, which affect the spread of EVs, were not included. Future studies and models should include monthly data on charging facilities for each region. In addition, in the present study, the PM10 variable was applied in the analyses, but if the monthly particulates on bad days were applied as mentioned in a previous study, more accurate results could be obtained for the environmental aspect. The second part of the three analyses conducted in the study using system dynamics was analyzed under four scenarios. The scenario that increases the current budget by 35% per year to achieve a 350% increase by 2030 could help meet the national EV propagation goal. However, given that Korea has implemented a policy of suspending EV subsidies as of 2023, it will be challenging to maintain the current budget for 35% subsidies per year for 10 years. Therefore, it is necessary to collect fees such as an environmental pollution tax from internal combustion engine vehicles to return the subsidies or give rebates for eco-friendly car such as EVs. In the future, more reliable research will promote the spread of EVs. The effects of feebate programs could also be considered. ; 기후변화와 관련하여 온실가스는 주요한 영향을 미치는 요인으로 인식되며, 꾸준히 증가하는 온실가스를 감축하고자 에너지 부문 중 수송부문에서도 탄소를 배출하지 않는 친환경 자동차로서 전기차는 해결책으로 제시되고 있다. 에너지 부문은 다섯 개 부문인 산업공정, 농업, 토지이용 변화 및 임업, 폐기물, 에너지 부문 중 국내 총 온실가스 배출량의 93%를 차지하여 온실가스 배출에 있어 크게 기여하고 있으며, 이로 인해 에너지 부문은 주요 온실가스 배출원으로 지목되었다. 그중 도로수송부문의 온실가스 배출량은 2017년 94,270 Gg ton CO2e로 전체 수송부문의 95.9%를 차지하며, 2021년부터 효력이 발생하는 파리기후협약에 따라 온실가스 감축 목표를 달성하고자 2030년 온실가스 배출전망량 851백만 ton CO2e 대비 37% 감축 달성을 위한 방안으로 친환경 자동차 보급을 제시하였다. 우리나라 정부는 온실가스 감축을 목표로 친환경 자동차 중 전기차 보급확대를 위해 다양한 정책을 제시하였다. 정부는 2030년 전기차 보급목표 대수를 3백만 대로 설정하며, 국내 친환경 자동차 보급확대를 위해 세제감면과 구매보조금 지급, 고속도로통행료, 공영주차장 주차비 할인 등의 다양한 혜택을 제공하고 있다. 하지만 이러한 정부의 다양한 정책적 노력에도 불구하고 국내 전기차 보급속도는 기대에 못 미치고 있다. 정부는 2030년까지 배출되는 온실가스를 감축하기 위해 수송부문의 경우 2030 전기차 보급목표를 300만 대로 설정하였지만, 우리나라의 2019년 전기차 등록 대수는 약 8.8만 대에 불과하며 정부가 설정한 높은 목표 대수에 한참 못 미치는 수준이다. 이는 국내 전체 승용차의 0.5% 수준이다. 우리나라 전기차 실구매자의 재구매 의사와 예비구매자의 전기차 구매 의사와 관련하여 진행된 설문조사에 따르면, 보조금 축소와 긴 충전시간, 짧은 항속거리 등과 같은 이유로 전기차 재구매 혹은 구매를 하지 않겠다는 의견을 제시하였다. 주행을 위해 꼭 필요한 요소인 충전과 관련한 사항은 민감한 사항이지만 한국전력의 전기공급 시행세칙 변경안에 따르면, 2020년 하반기부터 전기차 충전료가 대폭 인상추진 중이다. 이로 인해 전기차 실구매자가 부담해야 하는 충전비용은 더욱 늘어나며 구매의향에 영향을 미칠 것으로 조사되었다. 전기차 보급을 위한 정부의 정책 시행과 다양한 연구가 진행되는 흐름 속에서 전기차의 보급이 증가할 것으로 전망됨에 따라 전기차의 연료인 발전의 변화도 중요성이 높아지고 있다. 전기차는 주행 중에 배출되는 오염물질이 없다는 점에서 환경성이 부각되며 장려되고 있지만, 전기차의 제조 전 단계부터 폐기단계까지의 생애주기를 고려한 환경영향은 포함되지 않은 채 전기자동차는 장려되고 있다. 전기차의 생애주기 중 전기차 운행을 위한 전력 생산단계는 생애주기 중 사용단계에서 가장 많은 탄소량이 배출되며 이로 인해 전력생산은 전기차의 환경영향에 주요한 영향을 미친다. 전원믹스 구성에 따라 환경영향이 달라지기 때문에 국가 전원믹스를 고려한 환경영향평가가 이루어져야 한다. 자동차 보급과 에너지 생산과 관련된 중요한 두 카테고리인 온실가스와 미세먼지에서 상반된 결과를 보이기에 전원믹스구성의 변화와 전기차 보급 변화에 따른 환경영향평가가 필요하다. 전기차를 향한 관심의 증가하며 전기차 보급 관련 다양한 연구들이 수행되며, 전기차 보급에 영향을 미치는 다양한 인자들을 제시하였다. 그중 충전시설, 인구밀도, 유가, 온도, 전력가격, 보조금, 1인당 보유차량 대수 등이 전기차 보급의 주요 인자로 알려져 있다. 전기차 보급의 영향인자를 연구한 대다수의 연구에서 국가 단위의 연간자료를 사용하여 패널 분석을 진행하였다. 하지만, 우리나라는 주요 영향인자 중 보조금이 국고 보조금과 지자체 보조금으로 나뉘어 지급되고 있기에 지역적 특성이 고려되어야 하며, 제주도와 같은 전기차에 특수성을 띄고 있는 지역이 있기에 지자체 레벨에서 분석이 되어야 한다. 이와 더불어, 연간자료가 아닌 월간 자료 사용에 따라 보조금의 잔액 혹은 잔여 대수 변화를 적용한 연구는 찾아보기 어렵다. 시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 전기차 보급 관련 다양한 연구들이 있었지만, 정량적인 연구보다는 정성적인 연구에 초점을 둔 연구들이 대부분이었다. 또한, 전기차 전원믹스 구성 변화를 적용하여 환경영향을 평가한 연구들은 많았지만, 전기차 보급량과 환경영향을 모두 고려한 연구는 찾아보기 어렵다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 지역별 전기차 보급에 대한 보조금 정책의 영향과 환경개선효과에 대해서 평가하였다. 먼저, 지역별 월간 패널자료를 이용하여 전기차의 보급 활성화에 영향을 미치는 인자를 분석하였으며, 분석된 인자들을 바탕으로 시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 보조금 정책에 따른 지역별 전기차 보급량 변화를 분석하였다. 마지막으로 전기차 보급에 따른 환경성 분석을 위해 전과정평가를 이용하여 국가전력수급계획에 따른 전기차 보급의 환경개선효과를 보고자 하였다. 본 연구의 첫 번째 전기차 보급 분석을 통해 지역별 월별 시계열 자료를 바탕으로 우리나라의 전기차 보급에 영향을 미치는 요인을 정량적인 분석을 하고자 하였다. 먼저 지역적 특성을 고려한 월 단위의 시계열 자료에서 나타나는 계절성 등에 대한 영향을 고려하기 위해 인자의 정상성을 확인하였다. 또한, 하우즈만 검정을 통해 패널고정효과모형과 패널확률효과모형에 대한 전기차 보급 모형을 설계하였다. 패널고정효과모형과 패널확률효과모형으로 국내 17개 시·도를 대상으로 전기차 보급 영향인자를 분석한 결과, 각각 48%와 50%의 설명력을 갖는 전기차 보급 모형을 확인하였다. 5개의 카테고리인 차량관련과 정책, 인구조사, 기후, 환경에 분류된 인자들은 모형에 따라 각기 다른 영향을 보이는 것으로 나타났으며, 하우즈만 검정을 통해 패널고정효과가 모형을 설명하기에 더욱 적절한 것으로 분석되었으나, 고정효과 모형보다 패널확률효과모형에서 더 많은 변수가 통계적으로 유의한 영향인자로 분석되었다. 차량 관련 카테고리의 신규등록 디젤차량 대수와 전체 신규등록 차량 대수는 패널고정효과모형과 패널확률효과모형 모두에서 각각 부(-)의 영향과 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 하지만 확률효과모형의 경우, 디젤의 가격과 가솔린의 가격 또한 영향인자로 분석되었다. 패널고정효과모형에서는 국고 보조금과 지자체 보조금만이 영향인자로 각각 부(-)의 영향과 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었으나 확률효과모형은 전기차 보급에 긍정적 영향을 미치는 세금감면도 영향인자로 나타났다. 인구조사 카테고리의 인구밀도와 1인당 차량보유대수, 환경적 요인을 대변하는 미세먼지지수는 두 모형 모두에서 영향인자로 분석되었다. 각 지역의 기상조건이 전기차 보급 활성에 영향을 미치는지를 볼 수 있는 기상카테고리의 인자 중 월평균 온도와 월최저온도가 패널고정효과모형에서 영향력이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 하지만 패널확률효과모형에서는 기상카테고리의 모든 인자가 영향인자가 아닌 것으로 분석되었다. 앞서 분석된 전기차 보급에 영향을 미치는 인자들을 바탕으로 시스템 다이내믹스를 이용하여 지역별 전기차 보급의 동태적 변화를 보기 위해 Stella 플랫폼을 이용하였다. 시스템 다이내믹스는 시스템적 거동을 보이는 대상의 역동적인 변화메커니즘을 비선형적인 피드백 시스템으로 파악하고, 이를 다양한 요인을 고려하여 시뮬레이션하여 분석하는 기법이다. 본 연구에서는 시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 지역별 전기차 보급대수 추정을 위해 Bull's eye diagram과 causal loop diagram, stock-flow diagram을 구축하고 보조금, 충전시설, 유가, 전력가격, 연료별 차량 대수 변수로 적용하였다. 이러한 시스템 다이내믹스 모델링을 통해 변수 간의 상관관계를 수식화하였다. 지역별 전기차 보급의 시스템 다이내믹스 모델은 지역별 특성에 따른 차이를 보고자 보조금 변수를 제외한 모든 변수는 신규 전기차 등록대수를 종속변수로 pooled OLS 회귀분석을 하여 수식을 적용하였으며, 보조금 변수는 지역별로 구분하여 신규 전기차 등록대수를 종속변수로 설정하고 다중회귀분석을 진행하였다. 이와 더불어 네 가지 정책시나리오-Subsidy Cliff, Phase-out, Phase-in 50%, Phase-in 350%-를 구축하여 우리나라 2030년 전기차 보급목표인 3백만 대 달성 가능 여부를 확인하였다. 이러한 분석을 통한 결과에 따르면, 2030년 국내 전기차는 Subsidy Cliff 시나리오일 경우 1.37 백만 대와 Phase-out일 경우 1.40 백만 대, Phase-in 50%일 경우, 1.87 백만 대, Phase-in 350%일 경우 3.01 백만 대가 보급될 것으로 분석되었다. 해당 시나리오의 결과를 보면, 보조금이 2030년 350%까지 인상되는 Phase-in 350% 시나리오를 제외한 세 가지 시나리오인 Subsidy Cliff와 Phase-out, Phase-in 50%가 국가 전기차 보급목표에 각각 1.63백만 대, 1.60 백만 대, 1.13 백만 대의 전기차가 추가적으로 보급되어야 하는 것으로 나타났다. 구축된 네 가지 시나리오를 지역별 전기차 보급 대수로 보면, 2019년 가장 많은 전기차가 보급된 지역은 제주, 서울 경기 대구 순이었으며, 2030년은 제주 경기 서울 대구 순으로 분석되었다. 시간이 지나며 2019년 대비 많은 전기차가 보급되었음에도 전기차 보급이 활성화된 지역은 순서의 차이는 있었으나 동일하였다. 하지만 전기차 보급을 거주 인구수와 대비하여 분석한 결과, 지역별 전체 전기차 보급 대수를 분석한 결과와 상반된 결과가 산출되었다. 2030년에 가장 많은 1인당 전기차 대수가 나온 지역은 제주, 울산, 강원, 전남 순이었다. 제주를 제외한 세 지역은 전체 보급대수로 보았을 때는 많은 전기차가 보급된 지역이 아니었지만 적은 인구수 대비 많은 전기차가 보급된 것으로 나타났다. 울산의 경우, 전체 전기차 대수를 보면 16개 시도에서 가장 적은 전기차가 보급되는 것으로 분석되었지만 인구대비로 보았을 경우는 특수케이스인 제주를 제외한 제일 많은 1인당 전기차 대수가 보급된 곳으로 분석되었다. 이는 자동차 공장이 있는 울산이 기존연구에서 전기차의 생산지나 공장이 있는 지역의 전기차 보급이 높게 나타난 것과 같은 생산지 효과로 사료된다. 본 연구의 세 번째 전기차 보급 분석인 국가전력수급계획에 따른 전기차 보급의 환경영향을 보기 위해 사용된 전과정평가는 제품이나 서비스의 환경영향를 정량화하는 분석 방법이다. 전기차 보급에 따른 분석을 하기에 앞서 목적 및 범위설정 단계에서 전기차의 연료생산 시의 전과정평가를 실시하였으며, 전과정평가시 1kWh의 전력 생산 시를 기능단위로 설정하였다. 이와 더불어 전력생산 시에 발생하는 오염물질의 인벤토리를 분석하였으며, 본 연구에서는 전기차의 보급에 따른 환경영향을 분석하기 위해 차량의 수명인 11년과 통계청에서 제공하는 연간 주행거리, 두 번째 분석에서 산출된 정책별 전기차 보급 대수를 적용하여 보급 대수에 따른 환경영향을 분석하였다. 또한, 제8차 전력수급계획 옵션과 석탄화력발전의 신재생에너지로의 추가적 전환 옵션을 적용하여 비교 분석하였다. 환경 옵션으로 제시된 정격용량을 기준으로 산출한 제8차 계획과 신재생에너지로의 전환을 적용하여 전기차의 온실가스와 미세먼지 배출량을 보면, 온실가스는 8차 계획 옵션 시 81.7g CO2e/VKT가 배출되며, 신재생에너지로의 전환 옵션 시, 37.2g CO2e/VKT의 온실가스가 배출되는 것으로 나타났다. 온실가스 배출량이 가장 낮게 나온 신재생에너지로의 전환 옵션은 2016년의 실질 전원구성과 3.1배 차이가 나며, 내연기관차인 휘발유차와 경유차와는 각각 4.57배와 4.25배 차이가 나는 것으로 분석되었다. 또한, 최근 미세먼지 관련 이슈가 크게 대두됨에 따라 차량에서 배출되는 미세먼지 배출량의 환경영향을 분석해보았다. 휘발유와 경유, 전기차 중 가장 많은 미세먼지 배출량을 보였던 전기차는 8차수급계획 옵션을 적용 시 1km 주행 시 20.7mg PMe를 에너지 전환 옵션을 적용 시 9.4mg PMe/VKT를 배출하는 것으로 산출되어 12.4mg PMe/VKT의 배출량을 보인 내연기관차(휘발유) 보다 1.32배 적을 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구에서 전기차 보급에 영향을 미치는 인자분석을 위해 월간 지역패널자료를 이용하여 분석을 진행하였다. 하지만, 일반적인 연간자료를 이용한 패널분석이 아닌 월간 자료를 이용한 패널 분석을 하며 지역별 자료 구득에 있어 한계가 존재하였다. 특히, 전기차 보급에 영향을 미치는 충전시설이나 충전전력요금과 같은 주요 영향인자가 포함되지 않았다는 점에서 향후, 지역별 충전시설의 월간 자료의 구축이 요구된다고 판단된다. 이와 더불어 본 연구에서는 미세먼지 변수를 농도로 적용하여 분석을 진행하였지만 향후, 기존의 연구에서 언급된 바와 같이 월별 미세먼지 나쁨 일수를 적용할 경우, 환경성 부분에서보다 더 정확한 결과 도출이 가능할 것이라 사료된다. 본 연구에서 진행한 세 가지의 분석 중 시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 두 번째 파트의 분석은 다양한 시나리오 중 현재 예산을 매해 35% 증액하여 2030년 350% 인상에 도달하는 시나리오가 적합한 것으로 분석되었다. 하지만, 2023년을 기점으로 전기차 보조금 지급을 중단하는 정책을 시행하고 있는 우리나라의 입장에서는 현재 전기차 보조금을 위한 예산을 매년 35%씩 10년 동안 지속하는 것에는 어려움이 있기에 내연기관차로부터의 환경오염세와 같은 fee를 징수하여 친환경차인 전기차의 보조금을 rebate하는 피베이트 제도 (Feebate)를 해야 할 필요가 있다고 사료된다. 향후, feebate와 전기차 보급을 연계하여 연구가 가능할 것으로 판단된다. ; Chapter Ⅰ. Introduction 1 1. Background 1 2. Research Objectives 8 Chapter Ⅱ. Literature Review 9 1. Determinant of EV Propagation 9 2. System Dynamics Modeling 15 3. Environmental Impacts of EV Propagation 17 Chapter Ⅲ. Data and Methods 19 1. Panel Analysis for Deriving Affecting Factors of EV Propagation 19 1.1. Scope of Study 19 1.2. EV Trends in Korea 20 1.3. Categories of Affecting Factors 24 1.3.1. Vehicle Sector 28 1.3.2. Policy Sector 31 1.3.3. Demographic Sector 35 1.3.4. Climate Sector 38 1.3.5. Environment Sector 39 1.4. Stationary Testing 43 1.5. Panel Analysis Model 46 1.5.1. Pooled Ordinary Least Square 46 1.5.2. Fixed Effect Model 48 1.5.3. Random Effect Model 50 2. System Dynamics on EV Propagation 51 2.1. Scope of Study 51 2.2. Data for Dynamic Analysis 52 2.2.1. Propagation and Activation Policy on EVs 52 2.2.2. Model Parameters of System Dynamics Analysis 56 2.3. System Dynamics 62 2.3.1. Introduction to System Dynamics 62 2.3.2. Characteristics of System Dynamics 64 2.3.3. Steps of Modeling System Dynamics 68 2.4. Policy Scenarios for EV Propagation 70 3. Life Cycle Assessment of EV Propagation 72 3.1. National Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand 72 3.2. Life Cycle Assessment 74 3.2.1. Introduction to Life Cycle Assessment 74 3.2.2. Goal and Scope Definition 76 3.2.3. Life Cycle Inventory Analysis 79 3.2.4. Life Cycle Impact Analysis 80 3.3. Policy Scenarios and Environmental Options 82 Chapter Ⅳ. Results and Discussion 84 1. Key Drivers of EV Propagation 84 1.1. Descriptive Statistics of Factors 84 1.2. Identification of Stationarity of Factors 88 1.3. Result of Goodness of Fit Test 89 1.4. Panel Fixed Effect of EV Propagation 90 1.5. Panel Random Effect of EV Propagation 98 2. System Dynamics Modeling for EV Propagation 103 2.1. Bull's Eye Diagram of EV Propagation Model 103 2.2. Causal Loop Diagram of EV Propagation 105 2.3. Stock-Flow Diagram of EV Propagation 108 2.4. Propagation Results of EV considering Policies 115 2.4.1. Subsidy Cliff Scenario 115 2.4.2. Phase-out Subsidy Scenario 118 2.4.3. Phase-in Subsidy Scenarios 121 2.4.4. Regional EV Projection per Thousand in 2030 127 2.4.5. Policy Implications of EV Projection considering Policy Scenarios 132 3. Environmental Implications of EV Propagation 134 3.1. Environmental Performance of EVs Compared to ICEVs 134 3.2. Environmental Implications of Combination of Policy Scenarios and Environmental Options for EV Propagation 138 3.2.1. Emissions Considering Environmental Options and Policy Scenarios 138 3.2.2. Total Emissions from ICEV and EV Considering Energy Transition Option and Policy Scenario 142 Chapter Ⅴ. Conclusion 147 References 152 Abstract in Korean 172 ; Master
학위논문 (석사) -- 서울대학교 대학원 : 국제농업기술대학원 국제농업기술학과, 2020. 8. 서교. ; Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are considered key factors driving climate change, and electric vehicles (EVs) are proposed as a potential solutions. EVs represent eco-friendly modes of transportation that do not emit carbon dioxide and other GHGs into the atmosphere. In addition, the energy sources associated with EVs would reduce GHG emissions, which have steadily increased over the last several decades. The energy sector accounts for 93% of the total national GHG emissions among five sectors, including industrial processing, agriculture, land-use change and forestry, waste, and energy. Although all of these sectors contribute to GHG emissions. the energy sector is the major source of GHG emissions. Among the numerous sub-sectors under the energy sector, GHG emissions of the road transport sub-sector accounted for 95.9% of the total emissions in the transport sector, with 94,270 Gt CO2e in 2017. The Korean government proposed the adoption of eco-friendly vehicles to achieve the GHG reduction goals in line with the Paris Climate Agreement, which goes into effect in 2021. In addition, the government have proposed promoting eco-friendly vehicles as a strategy of achieving a 37% reduction of the 851 million ton CO2e GHG emissions forecast by 2030. The Korean government has proposed various policies to increase the adoption of EVs, as eco-friendly cars, with the aim of reducing GHG emissions. The government has set a goal of 3 million EVs by 2030, and has provided various incentives such as tax exemptions, purchase subsidies, highway tolls, and discounts on parking fees in public parking facilities to promote the purchases of eco-friendly cars in Korea. Despite these favorable government policies, the rate of EV adoption in Korea has fallen short of expectations. Compared to the goal of 3 million EVs by 2030, the number of EVs registered in Korea in 2019 was only approximately 8.8t thousand which was far below the high goal set by the government. In 2019, only 0.5% of all passenger vehicles in Korea were EVs. According to a survey to evaluate the perceptions of actual buyers of EVs in Korea and the willingness of prospective buyers to purchase EVs, in general, current owners reported that they would not repurchase EV. Prospective buyers reported that they would not purchase EVs for reasons such as reduced subsidies, long charging times, and the short driving range of EVs. In terms of charging, which is a key factor for EV owners, KEPCO's detailed plan for the electricity supply include significantly increasing charging fees for EVs starting in the second half of 2020. Consequently, the charging costs that purchasers of EVs need to pay will increase further and will negatively affect intention to purchase. However, following implementation of the government's policy of propagation of EVs and according to various studies, the EV adoption is still expected to increase, and improvements in power generation could lead to an increase in EV purchases. Although no pollutants are emitted while driving EVs, policies that promote an increase in EVs do not take into account the life cycles of EVs from pre-manufacturing to the disposal, and thus, they do not adequately predict the potential environmental impacts. In the life cycle of EVs, the production of the electricity required for the operation of EVs generates the highest amount of GHG emissions during the use stage. Thus, production of EVs still has a major impact on the environment. Since such environmental impacts depend on the energy mix, environmental impact assessments should consider the national energy mix. New environmental impact assessment activities are needed and such activities should consider changes in the energy mix and changes in the propagation of EVs. These activities would impact the outcomes in two categories, global warming potential and particulate matter potential, which are both linked to automobile use and energy production. As interest in EVs has increased, numerous studies on the propagation of EVs have been conducted. As a result, various factors that influence the spread of EVs have been identified. In the majority of the studies that have examined the factors influencing the spread of EVs, panel analysis has been conducted using annual data at the national level. Subsidies, which is a major factor influencing EV uptake in Korea, are divided into the national subsidy and regional subsidies. Therefore, regional characteristics should be taken into account and analyzed at the regional level since different regions (e.g., Jeju Island) have unique operational environments for EVs. In addition, few studies have examined the balance of subsidies or the change in the number of supportable EV residuals based on monthly data rather than annual data. Several studies have also focused on the propagation of EVs using system dynamics, but, most studies have been qualitative research rather than quantitative research. In addition, numerous studies have evaluated environmental effects by applying changes in the energy mix. However, few studies have considered both the propagation of EVs and their environmental impacts. Therefore, the present study evaluates the impact of subsidy policies on the propagation of EVs by region and environmental improvement effects. First, we investigated the factors influencing the propagation of EVs using monthly panel data by region. Changes in EV uptake were then analyzed by region based on identified factors. Lastly, to analyze the environmental implications of EV propagation, the environmental improvement impacts of EV propagation were analyzed considering the national grid power supply plan based on a life cycle assessment (LCA). Our analysis of EV propagation based on monthly time series data by region aimed to quantitatively analyze the factors influencing the spread of EVs in Korea. This study confirmed the stationarity of the factors considering the influence of seasonality in the monthly time series data based on regional characteristics. In addition, an EV propagation model was designed based on panel fixed effect and panel random effect models, using the Hausman test. Analysis of the factors influencing EV propagation in 16 cities and provinces in Korea using panel fixed effect and panel random effect models, revealed that the EV propagation models had explanatory powers of 48% and 50%, respectively. The factors classified in the five categories had different effects depending on the model, and the panel fixed effect using the Hausman test was more appropriate for describing the model. However, more variables in the panel random effect model were analyzed as significant factors than in the fixed effect model. The number of newly registered diesel vehicles and the total number of newly registered passenger vehicles in the vehicle category had negative and positive effects on EV propagation, respectively, in both the panel fixed effect model and the panel random effect model. However, in the random effect model, the prices of diesel and gasoline vehicles also influenced EV propagation. In the panel fixed effect model, only the national subsidy and regional subsidies showed positive effects on the propagation of EVs. The random effect model also showed that a tax exemption, which had a positive effect on the spread of EVs, was also a factor influencing EV propagation. The population density in the census category, the number of vehicles per capita, and the PM10 concentration, representing environmental factors, were analyzed as influential factors in both models. In addition, the monthly average and minimum temperatures in the climate category, which could reveal whether weather conditions in each region influence EV spread, were found to be influential in the panel fixed effect model. However, in the panel random effect model, all factors in the climate category were not influential. The system dynamics model of EV propagation was based on factors influencing the spread of EVs. The present study used the Stella Architect software platform to analyze dynamic changes in the spread of EVs by region. system dynamics is a technique that identifies dynamic change mechanisms of targets, and shows systemic trends with a non-linear feedback system and simulates and analyzes them based on various factors. In the present study, we used system dynamics to estimate the number of EVs propagated by region. A bull's eye diagram, causal loop diagram, and stock-flow diagram were constructed, and factors such as subsidies, charging facilities, fuel prices, electricity prices, and the number of vehicles by fuel applied. The system dynamics modeling was conducted based on correlations between variables. The system dynamics model of EV propagation by region was applied using the number of new EVs registered as the dependent variable to reveal differences based on regional characteristics. The subsidy variables were divided into national and regional variables, and the number of newly registered EVs was set as the dependent variable and multiple regression analysis was conducted. In addition, four policy scenarios – Subsidy Cliff, Phase-out, Phase-in 50%, and Phase-in 350% – were adopted to verify whether the 2030 EV goal set by the government could be achieved. According to the analysis, 1.37 million EVs would be adopted in 2030 under the Subsidy Cliff scenario, 1.40 million under the Phase-out scenario, 1.87 million under the Phase-in 50% scenario, and 3.01 million under the Phase-in 350% scenario. The results from these scenarios show that three scenarios, excluding the Phase-in 350% scenario, in which subsidies would increase to 350% by 2030, would require an additional 1.63 million, 1.60 million, and 1.13 million EVs, respectively, to achieve the national EV propagation goal. Under the four scenarios, the regions where the largest number of EVs would be adopted by 2030 were Jeju, Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Daegu. However, the result of the analysis of the spread of EVs compared to the number of residents were contrary to the results of the analysis of the number of EVs based on region. Jeju, Ulsan, Gangwon, and Jeonnam would have the largest number of EVs per capita by 2030. Except for Jeju, the three other regions did not have many EVs compared to the total number of EVs, but the regions would have many EVs compared to the relatively low populations (i.e., EV per capita). Ulsan was projected to have the lowest number of EVs in Korea. However, considering the population, Ulsan would have the largest number of EVs per capita, except for Jeju, which is considered an effect similar to that observed in Ulsan, where an automobile factory is located. The results illustrate the potential propagation of EVs in regions where EVs are produced or where factories are located. The life cycle assessment (LCA) used to analyze the environmental impacts of EV propagation was based on the national power supply plan. LCA is an analysis method that quantifies the environmental impact of products or services. Prior to analyzing the propagation of EVs, the LCA of electricity production of EVs was evaluated at the goal and scope stages, and 1kWh of electricity production was set as a functional unit for the LCA. In addition, the inventory of pollutants generated during electricity production was analyzed. With regard to the environmental impact of the number of EVs propagated, the annual mileage provided by the KOSIS was applied based on an 11-year vehicle lifespan of EVs. In addition, the 8th Power Supply and Demand Plan and the additional energy transition option of coal-fired power generation to renewable energy were applied for comparative analyses. The 8th Plan was calculated based on the rated capacity presented as an environmental option, and the application of the energy transition to renewable energy. The GHG emissions of EVs were 81.7g CO2e/VKT under the 8th Plan option, and 37.2g CO2e/VKT for the energy transition option to renewable energy. The energy transition option, showed the lowest GHG emissions, with emissions that were 3.1 times lower than emission of the actual energy mix in 2016, and 4.57-fold and 4.25-fold lower compared to gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles, respectively. In addition, considering the recent rise in particulate matter-related issues, the environmental impact of particulate matter emissions from vehicles was analyzed. EVs. EVs emitted 20.7 mg PMe/VKT per 1km of driving. When the energy transition plan option was applied, PM emissions were less than those emitted by internal combustion engine vehicles. In the present study, monthly regional panel data were used to analyze factors influencing the propagation of EVs. However, panel analysis was conducted using monthly data rather than annual data. However, there were data acquisition limits that varied across regions. In particular, major factors such as the charging facilities and charging price, which affect the spread of EVs, were not included. Future studies and models should include monthly data on charging facilities for each region. In addition, in the present study, the PM10 variable was applied in the analyses, but if the monthly particulates on bad days were applied as mentioned in a previous study, more accurate results could be obtained for the environmental aspect. The second part of the three analyses conducted in the study using system dynamics was analyzed under four scenarios. The scenario that increases the current budget by 35% per year to achieve a 350% increase by 2030 could help meet the national EV propagation goal. However, given that Korea has implemented a policy of suspending EV subsidies as of 2023, it will be challenging to maintain the current budget for 35% subsidies per year for 10 years. Therefore, it is necessary to collect fees such as an environmental pollution tax from internal combustion engine vehicles to return the subsidies or give rebates for eco-friendly car such as EVs. In the future, more reliable research will promote the spread of EVs. The effects of feebate programs could also be considered. ; 기후변화와 관련하여 온실가스는 주요한 영향을 미치는 요인으로 인식되며, 꾸준히 증가하는 온실가스를 감축하고자 에너지 부문 중 수송부문에서도 탄소를 배출하지 않는 친환경 자동차로서 전기차는 해결책으로 제시되고 있다. 에너지 부문은 다섯 개 부문인 산업공정, 농업, 토지이용 변화 및 임업, 폐기물, 에너지 부문 중 국내 총 온실가스 배출량의 93%를 차지하여 온실가스 배출에 있어 크게 기여하고 있으며, 이로 인해 에너지 부문은 주요 온실가스 배출원으로 지목되었다. 그중 도로수송부문의 온실가스 배출량은 2017년 94,270 Gg ton CO2e로 전체 수송부문의 95.9%를 차지하며, 2021년부터 효력이 발생하는 파리기후협약에 따라 온실가스 감축 목표를 달성하고자 2030년 온실가스 배출전망량 851백만 ton CO2e 대비 37% 감축 달성을 위한 방안으로 친환경 자동차 보급을 제시하였다. 우리나라 정부는 온실가스 감축을 목표로 친환경 자동차 중 전기차 보급확대를 위해 다양한 정책을 제시하였다. 정부는 2030년 전기차 보급목표 대수를 3백만 대로 설정하며, 국내 친환경 자동차 보급확대를 위해 세제감면과 구매보조금 지급, 고속도로통행료, 공영주차장 주차비 할인 등의 다양한 혜택을 제공하고 있다. 하지만 이러한 정부의 다양한 정책적 노력에도 불구하고 국내 전기차 보급속도는 기대에 못 미치고 있다. 정부는 2030년까지 배출되는 온실가스를 감축하기 위해 수송부문의 경우 2030 전기차 보급목표를 300만 대로 설정하였지만, 우리나라의 2019년 전기차 등록 대수는 약 8.8만 대에 불과하며 정부가 설정한 높은 목표 대수에 한참 못 미치는 수준이다. 이는 국내 전체 승용차의 0.5% 수준이다. 우리나라 전기차 실구매자의 재구매 의사와 예비구매자의 전기차 구매 의사와 관련하여 진행된 설문조사에 따르면, 보조금 축소와 긴 충전시간, 짧은 항속거리 등과 같은 이유로 전기차 재구매 혹은 구매를 하지 않겠다는 의견을 제시하였다. 주행을 위해 꼭 필요한 요소인 충전과 관련한 사항은 민감한 사항이지만 한국전력의 전기공급 시행세칙 변경안에 따르면, 2020년 하반기부터 전기차 충전료가 대폭 인상추진 중이다. 이로 인해 전기차 실구매자가 부담해야 하는 충전비용은 더욱 늘어나며 구매의향에 영향을 미칠 것으로 조사되었다. 전기차 보급을 위한 정부의 정책 시행과 다양한 연구가 진행되는 흐름 속에서 전기차의 보급이 증가할 것으로 전망됨에 따라 전기차의 연료인 발전의 변화도 중요성이 높아지고 있다. 전기차는 주행 중에 배출되는 오염물질이 없다는 점에서 환경성이 부각되며 장려되고 있지만, 전기차의 제조 전 단계부터 폐기단계까지의 생애주기를 고려한 환경영향은 포함되지 않은 채 전기자동차는 장려되고 있다. 전기차의 생애주기 중 전기차 운행을 위한 전력 생산단계는 생애주기 중 사용단계에서 가장 많은 탄소량이 배출되며 이로 인해 전력생산은 전기차의 환경영향에 주요한 영향을 미친다. 전원믹스 구성에 따라 환경영향이 달라지기 때문에 국가 전원믹스를 고려한 환경영향평가가 이루어져야 한다. 자동차 보급과 에너지 생산과 관련된 중요한 두 카테고리인 온실가스와 미세먼지에서 상반된 결과를 보이기에 전원믹스구성의 변화와 전기차 보급 변화에 따른 환경영향평가가 필요하다. 전기차를 향한 관심의 증가하며 전기차 보급 관련 다양한 연구들이 수행되며, 전기차 보급에 영향을 미치는 다양한 인자들을 제시하였다. 그중 충전시설, 인구밀도, 유가, 온도, 전력가격, 보조금, 1인당 보유차량 대수 등이 전기차 보급의 주요 인자로 알려져 있다. 전기차 보급의 영향인자를 연구한 대다수의 연구에서 국가 단위의 연간자료를 사용하여 패널 분석을 진행하였다. 하지만, 우리나라는 주요 영향인자 중 보조금이 국고 보조금과 지자체 보조금으로 나뉘어 지급되고 있기에 지역적 특성이 고려되어야 하며, 제주도와 같은 전기차에 특수성을 띄고 있는 지역이 있기에 지자체 레벨에서 분석이 되어야 한다. 이와 더불어, 연간자료가 아닌 월간 자료 사용에 따라 보조금의 잔액 혹은 잔여 대수 변화를 적용한 연구는 찾아보기 어렵다. 시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 전기차 보급 관련 다양한 연구들이 있었지만, 정량적인 연구보다는 정성적인 연구에 초점을 둔 연구들이 대부분이었다. 또한, 전기차 전원믹스 구성 변화를 적용하여 환경영향을 평가한 연구들은 많았지만, 전기차 보급량과 환경영향을 모두 고려한 연구는 찾아보기 어렵다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 지역별 전기차 보급에 대한 보조금 정책의 영향과 환경개선효과에 대해서 평가하였다. 먼저, 지역별 월간 패널자료를 이용하여 전기차의 보급 활성화에 영향을 미치는 인자를 분석하였으며, 분석된 인자들을 바탕으로 시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 보조금 정책에 따른 지역별 전기차 보급량 변화를 분석하였다. 마지막으로 전기차 보급에 따른 환경성 분석을 위해 전과정평가를 이용하여 국가전력수급계획에 따른 전기차 보급의 환경개선효과를 보고자 하였다. 본 연구의 첫 번째 전기차 보급 분석을 통해 지역별 월별 시계열 자료를 바탕으로 우리나라의 전기차 보급에 영향을 미치는 요인을 정량적인 분석을 하고자 하였다. 먼저 지역적 특성을 고려한 월 단위의 시계열 자료에서 나타나는 계절성 등에 대한 영향을 고려하기 위해 인자의 정상성을 확인하였다. 또한, 하우즈만 검정을 통해 패널고정효과모형과 패널확률효과모형에 대한 전기차 보급 모형을 설계하였다. 패널고정효과모형과 패널확률효과모형으로 국내 17개 시·도를 대상으로 전기차 보급 영향인자를 분석한 결과, 각각 48%와 50%의 설명력을 갖는 전기차 보급 모형을 확인하였다. 5개의 카테고리인 차량관련과 정책, 인구조사, 기후, 환경에 분류된 인자들은 모형에 따라 각기 다른 영향을 보이는 것으로 나타났으며, 하우즈만 검정을 통해 패널고정효과가 모형을 설명하기에 더욱 적절한 것으로 분석되었으나, 고정효과 모형보다 패널확률효과모형에서 더 많은 변수가 통계적으로 유의한 영향인자로 분석되었다. 차량 관련 카테고리의 신규등록 디젤차량 대수와 전체 신규등록 차량 대수는 패널고정효과모형과 패널확률효과모형 모두에서 각각 부(-)의 영향과 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 하지만 확률효과모형의 경우, 디젤의 가격과 가솔린의 가격 또한 영향인자로 분석되었다. 패널고정효과모형에서는 국고 보조금과 지자체 보조금만이 영향인자로 각각 부(-)의 영향과 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었으나 확률효과모형은 전기차 보급에 긍정적 영향을 미치는 세금감면도 영향인자로 나타났다. 인구조사 카테고리의 인구밀도와 1인당 차량보유대수, 환경적 요인을 대변하는 미세먼지지수는 두 모형 모두에서 영향인자로 분석되었다. 각 지역의 기상조건이 전기차 보급 활성에 영향을 미치는지를 볼 수 있는 기상카테고리의 인자 중 월평균 온도와 월최저온도가 패널고정효과모형에서 영향력이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 하지만 패널확률효과모형에서는 기상카테고리의 모든 인자가 영향인자가 아닌 것으로 분석되었다. 앞서 분석된 전기차 보급에 영향을 미치는 인자들을 바탕으로 시스템 다이내믹스를 이용하여 지역별 전기차 보급의 동태적 변화를 보기 위해 Stella 플랫폼을 이용하였다. 시스템 다이내믹스는 시스템적 거동을 보이는 대상의 역동적인 변화메커니즘을 비선형적인 피드백 시스템으로 파악하고, 이를 다양한 요인을 고려하여 시뮬레이션하여 분석하는 기법이다. 본 연구에서는 시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 지역별 전기차 보급대수 추정을 위해 Bull's eye diagram과 causal loop diagram, stock-flow diagram을 구축하고 보조금, 충전시설, 유가, 전력가격, 연료별 차량 대수 변수로 적용하였다. 이러한 시스템 다이내믹스 모델링을 통해 변수 간의 상관관계를 수식화하였다. 지역별 전기차 보급의 시스템 다이내믹스 모델은 지역별 특성에 따른 차이를 보고자 보조금 변수를 제외한 모든 변수는 신규 전기차 등록대수를 종속변수로 pooled OLS 회귀분석을 하여 수식을 적용하였으며, 보조금 변수는 지역별로 구분하여 신규 전기차 등록대수를 종속변수로 설정하고 다중회귀분석을 진행하였다. 이와 더불어 네 가지 정책시나리오-Subsidy Cliff, Phase-out, Phase-in 50%, Phase-in 350%-를 구축하여 우리나라 2030년 전기차 보급목표인 3백만 대 달성 가능 여부를 확인하였다. 이러한 분석을 통한 결과에 따르면, 2030년 국내 전기차는 Subsidy Cliff 시나리오일 경우 1.37 백만 대와 Phase-out일 경우 1.40 백만 대, Phase-in 50%일 경우, 1.87 백만 대, Phase-in 350%일 경우 3.01 백만 대가 보급될 것으로 분석되었다. 해당 시나리오의 결과를 보면, 보조금이 2030년 350%까지 인상되는 Phase-in 350% 시나리오를 제외한 세 가지 시나리오인 Subsidy Cliff와 Phase-out, Phase-in 50%가 국가 전기차 보급목표에 각각 1.63백만 대, 1.60 백만 대, 1.13 백만 대의 전기차가 추가적으로 보급되어야 하는 것으로 나타났다. 구축된 네 가지 시나리오를 지역별 전기차 보급 대수로 보면, 2019년 가장 많은 전기차가 보급된 지역은 제주, 서울 경기 대구 순이었으며, 2030년은 제주 경기 서울 대구 순으로 분석되었다. 시간이 지나며 2019년 대비 많은 전기차가 보급되었음에도 전기차 보급이 활성화된 지역은 순서의 차이는 있었으나 동일하였다. 하지만 전기차 보급을 거주 인구수와 대비하여 분석한 결과, 지역별 전체 전기차 보급 대수를 분석한 결과와 상반된 결과가 산출되었다. 2030년에 가장 많은 1인당 전기차 대수가 나온 지역은 제주, 울산, 강원, 전남 순이었다. 제주를 제외한 세 지역은 전체 보급대수로 보았을 때는 많은 전기차가 보급된 지역이 아니었지만 적은 인구수 대비 많은 전기차가 보급된 것으로 나타났다. 울산의 경우, 전체 전기차 대수를 보면 16개 시도에서 가장 적은 전기차가 보급되는 것으로 분석되었지만 인구대비로 보았을 경우는 특수케이스인 제주를 제외한 제일 많은 1인당 전기차 대수가 보급된 곳으로 분석되었다. 이는 자동차 공장이 있는 울산이 기존연구에서 전기차의 생산지나 공장이 있는 지역의 전기차 보급이 높게 나타난 것과 같은 생산지 효과로 사료된다. 본 연구의 세 번째 전기차 보급 분석인 국가전력수급계획에 따른 전기차 보급의 환경영향을 보기 위해 사용된 전과정평가는 제품이나 서비스의 환경영향를 정량화하는 분석 방법이다. 전기차 보급에 따른 분석을 하기에 앞서 목적 및 범위설정 단계에서 전기차의 연료생산 시의 전과정평가를 실시하였으며, 전과정평가시 1kWh의 전력 생산 시를 기능단위로 설정하였다. 이와 더불어 전력생산 시에 발생하는 오염물질의 인벤토리를 분석하였으며, 본 연구에서는 전기차의 보급에 따른 환경영향을 분석하기 위해 차량의 수명인 11년과 통계청에서 제공하는 연간 주행거리, 두 번째 분석에서 산출된 정책별 전기차 보급 대수를 적용하여 보급 대수에 따른 환경영향을 분석하였다. 또한, 제8차 전력수급계획 옵션과 석탄화력발전의 신재생에너지로의 추가적 전환 옵션을 적용하여 비교 분석하였다. 환경 옵션으로 제시된 정격용량을 기준으로 산출한 제8차 계획과 신재생에너지로의 전환을 적용하여 전기차의 온실가스와 미세먼지 배출량을 보면, 온실가스는 8차 계획 옵션 시 81.7g CO2e/VKT가 배출되며, 신재생에너지로의 전환 옵션 시, 37.2g CO2e/VKT의 온실가스가 배출되는 것으로 나타났다. 온실가스 배출량이 가장 낮게 나온 신재생에너지로의 전환 옵션은 2016년의 실질 전원구성과 3.1배 차이가 나며, 내연기관차인 휘발유차와 경유차와는 각각 4.57배와 4.25배 차이가 나는 것으로 분석되었다. 또한, 최근 미세먼지 관련 이슈가 크게 대두됨에 따라 차량에서 배출되는 미세먼지 배출량의 환경영향을 분석해보았다. 휘발유와 경유, 전기차 중 가장 많은 미세먼지 배출량을 보였던 전기차는 8차수급계획 옵션을 적용 시 1km 주행 시 20.7mg PMe를 에너지 전환 옵션을 적용 시 9.4mg PMe/VKT를 배출하는 것으로 산출되어 12.4mg PMe/VKT의 배출량을 보인 내연기관차(휘발유) 보다 1.32배 적을 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구에서 전기차 보급에 영향을 미치는 인자분석을 위해 월간 지역패널자료를 이용하여 분석을 진행하였다. 하지만, 일반적인 연간자료를 이용한 패널분석이 아닌 월간 자료를 이용한 패널 분석을 하며 지역별 자료 구득에 있어 한계가 존재하였다. 특히, 전기차 보급에 영향을 미치는 충전시설이나 충전전력요금과 같은 주요 영향인자가 포함되지 않았다는 점에서 향후, 지역별 충전시설의 월간 자료의 구축이 요구된다고 판단된다. 이와 더불어 본 연구에서는 미세먼지 변수를 농도로 적용하여 분석을 진행하였지만 향후, 기존의 연구에서 언급된 바와 같이 월별 미세먼지 나쁨 일수를 적용할 경우, 환경성 부분에서보다 더 정확한 결과 도출이 가능할 것이라 사료된다. 본 연구에서 진행한 세 가지의 분석 중 시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 두 번째 파트의 분석은 다양한 시나리오 중 현재 예산을 매해 35% 증액하여 2030년 350% 인상에 도달하는 시나리오가 적합한 것으로 분석되었다. 하지만, 2023년을 기점으로 전기차 보조금 지급을 중단하는 정책을 시행하고 있는 우리나라의 입장에서는 현재 전기차 보조금을 위한 예산을 매년 35%씩 10년 동안 지속하는 것에는 어려움이 있기에 내연기관차로부터의 환경오염세와 같은 fee를 징수하여 친환경차인 전기차의 보조금을 rebate하는 피베이트 제도 (Feebate)를 해야 할 필요가 있다고 사료된다. 향후, feebate와 전기차 보급을 연계하여 연구가 가능할 것으로 판단된다. ; Chapter Ⅰ. Introduction 1 1. Background 1 2. Research Objectives 8 Chapter Ⅱ. Literature Review 9 1. Determinant of EV Propagation 9 2. System Dynamics Modeling 15 3. Environmental Impacts of EV Propagation 17 Chapter Ⅲ. Data and Methods 19 1. Panel Analysis for Deriving Affecting Factors of EV Propagation 19 1.1. Scope of Study 19 1.2. EV Trends in Korea 20 1.3. Categories of Affecting Factors 24 1.3.1. Vehicle Sector 28 1.3.2. Policy Sector 31 1.3.3. Demographic Sector 35 1.3.4. Climate Sector 38 1.3.5. Environment Sector 39 1.4. Stationary Testing 43 1.5. Panel Analysis Model 46 1.5.1. Pooled Ordinary Least Square 46 1.5.2. Fixed Effect Model 48 1.5.3. Random Effect Model 50 2. System Dynamics on EV Propagation 51 2.1. Scope of Study 51 2.2. Data for Dynamic Analysis 52 2.2.1. Propagation and Activation Policy on EVs 52 2.2.2. Model Parameters of System Dynamics Analysis 56 2.3. System Dynamics 62 2.3.1. Introduction to System Dynamics 62 2.3.2. Characteristics of System Dynamics 64 2.3.3. Steps of Modeling System Dynamics 68 2.4. Policy Scenarios for EV Propagation 70 3. Life Cycle Assessment of EV Propagation 72 3.1. National Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand 72 3.2. Life Cycle Assessment 74 3.2.1. Introduction to Life Cycle Assessment 74 3.2.2. Goal and Scope Definition 76 3.2.3. Life Cycle Inventory Analysis 79 3.2.4. Life Cycle Impact Analysis 80 3.3. Policy Scenarios and Environmental Options 82 Chapter Ⅳ. Results and Discussion 84 1. Key Drivers of EV Propagation 84 1.1. Descriptive Statistics of Factors 84 1.2. Identification of Stationarity of Factors 88 1.3. Result of Goodness of Fit Test 89 1.4. Panel Fixed Effect of EV Propagation 90 1.5. Panel Random Effect of EV Propagation 98 2. System Dynamics Modeling for EV Propagation 103 2.1. Bull's Eye Diagram of EV Propagation Model 103 2.2. Causal Loop Diagram of EV Propagation 105 2.3. Stock-Flow Diagram of EV Propagation 108 2.4. Propagation Results of EV considering Policies 115 2.4.1. Subsidy Cliff Scenario 115 2.4.2. Phase-out Subsidy Scenario 118 2.4.3. Phase-in Subsidy Scenarios 121 2.4.4. Regional EV Projection per Thousand in 2030 127 2.4.5. Policy Implications of EV Projection considering Policy Scenarios 132 3. Environmental Implications of EV Propagation 134 3.1. Environmental Performance of EVs Compared to ICEVs 134 3.2. Environmental Implications of Combination of Policy Scenarios and Environmental Options for EV Propagation 138 3.2.1. Emissions Considering Environmental Options and Policy Scenarios 138 3.2.2. Total Emissions from ICEV and EV Considering Energy Transition Option and Policy Scenario 142 Chapter Ⅴ. Conclusion 147 References 152 Abstract in Korean 172 ; Master
In: Hansen , S F 2018 , Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation, Categorisation and Tools to Evaluate Nanomaterials – Opportunities and Weaknesses (REACT NOW) . Technical University of Denmark , Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark .
Uanset om vi er klar over det eller ej, er nanoteknologi og nanomaterialer i det seneste årti blevet en integreret del af vores liv. Vi er gået ind i en fase, hvor den tidlige hype om fordelene ved denne – mildt sagt forbløffende – teknologi er forbi. Siden nanoteknologiens spæde begyndelse er der blevet rejst tvivl om de eventuelle negative miljø- og sundhedseffekter af nanomaterialer. Men som tiden er gået, er der blevet mere og mere stille omkring disse. Det er ikke, fordi vi har løst udfordringerne i forbindelse med risikovurdering og håndtering af nanomaterialer, men snarere fordi vi synes at være fanget af en følelse af "nanorisiko-immunitet", hvor vi efterhånden er blevet mere og mere immune overfor nyheder om de potentielle risici ved nanomaterialer. I stedet for at implementere et nyt regelsæt skræddersyet til nanomaterialer, synes Europa-Kommissionen at foretrække at igangsætte diverse udredninger af den videnskabelige litteratur med hensyn til miljø og sundhed samt at diskutere de samme risikovurderings- og lovgivningsmæssige udfordringer igen og igen. Hvis erfaringerne fra tidligere tiders håndtering af nye risici og teknologier kan benyttes som en rettesnor, kan vi nu forvente 15-20 års miljø- og sundhedsforskning, der ikke vil give endegyldige svar på, hvorvidt nanomaterialer er farlige, og som kun dråbevist vil vise glimt af den sande natur af risikoen ved anvendelsen af nanomaterialer. Denne afhandling sammenfatter vores nuværende viden indenfor risikovurdering og regulering af nanomaterialer. Konkret er fokus på de tre forskningsområder, som jeg har været involveret i siden 2009 med hensyn til: 1) at kortlægge af nuværende anvendelser af nanomaterialer i Europa, 2) at forstå begrænsningerne i den eksisterende lovgivning, og endelig 3) at adressere begrænsningerne som risikovurdering – og alternativer til risikovurdering – har, når det kommer til nanomaterialer. For at få et overblik over forbrugerprodukter i Europa som enten hævdes at indeholde nanomaterialer, eller som hævdes at være baseret på nanoteknologi, etablerede vi i 2012 en online database, Nanodatabasen (www.nanodb.dk) og begyndte systematisk at indsamle information om påståede nanoprodukters navn, producentens "nanopåstand", oprindelsesland, anvendt nanomateriale, lokalitet af det anvendte nanomateriale i produktet og mest sandsynlige eksponeringsrute blandt anden. Nanodatabasen indeholdt oprindeligt lidt mere end 1.200 produkter og indeholder nu information om mere end 3.000 forskellige produkter. Igennem vores forskning har vi fundet ud af, at de fleste produkter falder indenfor kategorierne "Health and Fitness" and "Home and Garden". De mest anvendte nanomaterialer er sølv og titaniumdioxid, men det er vigtigt at påpege, at det ikke er muligt at identificere identiteten af det anvendte nanomateriale i næsten 60% af produkterne i databasen. Evalueringsværktøjet, NanoRiskCat, blev udviklet og integreret i Nanodatabasen med det formål at kommunikere, hvad man ved om fare- og eksponeringspotentialet af produkter, som indeholder nanomaterialer. Det endelige resultat af NanoRiskCat evalueringen af et specifikt nanomateriale til en given anvendelse kan i sin simpleste form fremlægges i form af en kort titel, som beskriver anvendelse af nanomaterialet og en farvekode, hvor de første tre farvede bullets (•••׀••) refererer til den potentielle eksponering for henholdsvis professionelle slutbrugere, forbrugere og miljøet – i den rækkefølge – og de sidste to bullets refererer til farepotentialet for mennesker og miljøet. Farverne, som kan allokeres til eksponerings- og farepotentialet, er henholdsvis grøn (•), gul (•), rød (•) and grå (•), svarende til henholdsvis høj, medium, lav og ukendt. En dataanalyse af produkterne i Nanodatabasen viser, at dermal eksponering er den mest sandsynlige eksponeringsvej, og at NanoRiskCat eksponeringspotentialet såvel som menneske- og miljøfarepotentialet for de fleste produkter er enten "høj (•)" eller "ukendt (•)". En række EU forordninger og direktiver så som, bl.a. biocidforordningen, er blevet ændret i de seneste år for at tage højde for de potentielle risici forbundet med nanomaterialer og for at tage højde for nanomaterialers unikke egenskaber. Dog viser den forskning, der præsenteres i denne afhandling, at der er tre store svagheder forbundet med den nuværende regulering, såsom: 1) hvordan man definerer "nanomaterialer", 2) tærskelværdier og oplysningskrav, som ikke er skræddersyet til nanomaterialer og 3) de massive videnskabelige udfordringer, der er ved at anvende traditionel kemisk risikovurdering som metode på nanomaterialer i praksis. Resultatet af denne forskning har fået mig til at konkludere, at det, at nanomaterialer er omfattet af eksisterende lovgivning, rent juridisk ikke i sig selv er nok til at sikre beskyttelsen af miljøet og menneskers sundhed. Vi har derfor brug for en ny lovgivning, som er skræddersyet til nanomaterialer og deres anvendelser. I den sidste del af afhandlingen foreslås en sådan lovgivning kaldet Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation, Categorisation and Tools to Evaluate Nanomaterials – Opportunities and Weaknesses (REACT NOW). Afhandlingen består af ni kapitler. En kort introduktion gives i kapitel 1. I kapitel 2 præsenteres vores viden om de nuværende anvendelser af nanomaterialer. Det fastslås, at der er en generel mangel på data og adgang til data om, blandt andet vedrørende produktionsmængder og anvendelser af nanomaterialer. Den manglende viden hæmmer enhver form for kvalitativ og kvantitativ eksponeringsvurdering af nanomaterialer, hvilket igen hindrer enhver form for kemisk risikovurdering. En række politikere, forskere, NGO'er og medlemmer af offentligheden har sat spørgsmålstegn ved, om den nuværende regulering er god nok. Blandt andet fordi mange af de mest relevante EU-forordninger og direktiver er stærkt afhængige af vores evne til at færdiggøre meningsfulde videnskabelige risikovurderinger. Kapitel 3 er helliget en analyse af de ændringer, der er foretaget i den eksisterende lovgivning inden for kemikalie-, biocidholdige produkt- og fødevarelovgivningen. I kapitel 4 præsenteres en analyse og vurdering af de yderligere juridiske og tekniske revisioner, som er blevet foreslået af en række EU-landes REACH-kompetente myndigheder som de tyske UBA, BfR og BAuA og den svenske KEMI, samt NGO'erne CIEL, ClientEarth og BUND. Det konkluderes, at de ændringer, der er blevet gennemført i den eksisterende EU-lovgivning og de foreslåede yderligere ændringer, kollektivt indeholder en masse muligheder. Dog blev der ligeledes identificeret en række svagheder, og disse bliver uddybet og diskuteret i kapitel 5, da de fortsat obstruerer en effektiv regulering af nanomaterialer. I erkendelse af de udfordringer, som anvendelsen af kemisk risikovurdering indebærer og de udestående videnskabelige usikkerheder, er mere end 50 alternative beslutningsmetoder eller supplement til kemisk risikovurdering blevet udarbejdet og foreslået i de senere år. Disse analyseres i kapitel 6 for at identificere metoder, der kan anvendes til at understøtte en lovgivning, som er skræddersyet specielt til nanomaterialer og deres anvendelser. Denne evaluering er baseret på en række af de seneste videnskabelige publikationer, som systematisk gennemgår, hvorledes disse alternative metoder kan anvendes i forbindelse med risikohåndtering, beskyttelse af arbejdstagerne, forbrugernes eksponering, miljøvurdering, affald, osv. Dette fører til den erkendelse, at vi har brug for en evalueringsmetode, der er både lovgivningsmæssig relevant, og som kan anvendes på trods af manglende data og manglende adgang til information. I kapitel 7 præsenteres evalueringsmetoden NanoRiskCat. En stor styrke i NanoRiskCat er, at metoden er blevet anvendt på mere end 2.000 produkter, som enten hævdes at indeholde nanomaterialer, eller som hævdes at være baseret på nanoteknologi. Endelig introduceres REACT NOW i kapitel 8. Centrale elementer i den foreslåede lovgivning skitseres. Som en del af REACT NOW anbefales det, at producenter og importører af nanomaterialer bliver forpligtiget til at registrere deres nanomaterialer forud for kommercialisering og uafhængig af mængden, der produceres og/eller importeres. For nanomaterialer, som allerede er på markedet, bør det kræves, at producenter og importører opfylder betingelserne i REACT NOW inden for en tidsperiode som for eksempel seks måneder. Nanomaterialer defineres i REACT NOW i henhold til Europa-Kommissionens videnskabelige komite, SCENIHR's forslag og ikke i henhold til den definition, som anbefales af Europa-Kommissionen. Primær partikelstørrelsesfordeling, form, specifikt overfladeareal og overfladebehandling betragtes som identifikatorer og ikke som karakteristika, som foreslået af UBA, BfR og BAuA (2013). I praksis betyder det, at enhver variation i primær partikelstørrelsesfordeling, form, specifikt overfladeareal og overfladebehandling skal identificeres, navngives, registreres og evalueres separat. Det Europæiske Kemikalieagentur identificeres som værende den Europæiske myndighed, som bør være ansvarlig for forvaltningen og gennemførelsen af de tekniske og administrative aspekter af REACT NOW, mens bevisbyrden for at vise, at nanomaterialer er sikre, pålægges producenterne og importørerne af disse for at sikre, at relevant information og data genereres i tide. For at sikre beskyttelsen af sundheden og miljøet anbefales det, at registranten er forpligtet til at forklare det pågældende produkts funktion, begrunde dets nødvendighed og gennemføre en effektivitetsevaluering forud for en kommercialisering. I forlængelse af disse krav skal alle nanomaterialer evalueres ved hjælp af NanoRiskCat. De oplysninger vedrørende nanomaterialers fare for sundhed og miljø, som der stilles krav om, at producenterne og/eller importørerne indleverer, er fokuseret på at gøre det muligt at anvende NanoRiskCat. Det vil sige, at fokus er på, om nanomaterialet er et såkaldt "High Aspect Ratio Nanoparticles" (HARN), den nuværende klassificering og mærkning af ikke-nanoformen af materialet, dets akutte toksicitet, genotoksicitet og mutagenicitet, carcinogenicitet samt dets respiratoriske toksicitet. Vedrørende miljøet drejer det sig hovedsaglig om den nuværende klassificering og mærkning af ikke-nanoformen af materialet, dets akvatiske toksicitet, ferskvands test for nedbrydning og bioakkumulering. Dertil kommer en videnskabelig gennemgang med hensyn til udbredelse og langtrækkende transport, økosystemets effekter og nyhedsværdi. Det er vigtigt at bemærke, at NanoRiskCat bruger en trinvis fremgangsmåde. Registranten behøver kun at indsende nok information til, at der kan foretages en kategorisering af farepotentialet for miljø- og sundhed af det specifikke nanomateriale i dets specifikke anvendelse. Der anvendes 4 farvekategorier, nemlig 1) rød for, at farepotentialet er højt; 2) gul for, at farepotentialet er medium; 3) grøn for, at farepotentialet er lavt og endelig 4) grå for, at farepotentialet er ukendt. Afhængigt af resultatet af NanoRiskCat evalueringen kan det være, at producenter og importører af nanomaterialer samt producenter af nanoprodukter skal søge om tilladelse til produktion og anvendelse. Generelt bør der – som hovedregel – kun gives tilladelse til specifikke anvendelser af nanomaterialer og nanoprodukter, når anvendelsen skønnes nødvendig, effektiv og funktionel. Som en konsekvens af NanoRiskCat evalueringen kan registranten efterfølgende blive forpligtiget til at gennemføre en vurdering af tilgængelige alternativer. Dette gør sig gældende for anvendelser af nanomaterialer, som resulterer i en NanoRiskCat evaluering med 1) et rødt eksponeringspotentiale for professionelle slutbrugere og/eller et rødt eksponeringspotentiale for forbrugere kombineret med et rødt potentiale for menneskers sundhed og/eller 2) en rød miljøeksponering kombineret med en rød miljøfare. I disse tilfælde skal der indhentes en udtalelse fra de relevante videnskabelige komiteer i Europa-Kommissionen om, hvorvidt nanomaterialet og dets anvendelse er sikker. Brug og tilladelse til produktion, import og anvendelse bør kun gives, hvis den specifikke anvendelse skønnes at være nødvendig og sikker. Anvendelse af nanomaterialer, som de videnskabelige komitéer ikke anser for at være sikre, bør der ikke gives tilladelse til at markedsføre i Europa. Dette gælder fx udbredt anvendelse af HARN og indendørs forbrugeranvendelse af sprayprodukter med nanomaterialer forbundet med respiratorisk toksicitet. For alle andre kombinationer af eksponerings- og fareprofiler, dvs. NanoRiskCat kategorierne 2-4, kan agenturet anmode om en udtalelse fra de relevante videnskabelige komiteer i Europa-Kommissionen fra sag til sag. Som en generel regel bør der kun gives tilladelse til specifikke anvendelser af nanomaterialer og nanoprodukter, hvis de har et grønt fare potentiale for menneskers sundhed kombineret med et grønt professionelt slutbruger- og forbrugereksponeringspotentiale. Det samme gælder for anvendelser, der forventes at føre til miljømæssig eksponering. Her bør der kun gives tilladelse, hvis det pågældende nanomateriale har et grønt miljøfare potentiale. Skulle de videnskabelige komitéer have spørgsmål til sikkerheden af et nanomateriale og dets specifikke anvendelse, kan agenturet anmode producenter/importøren om yderligere oplysninger. Disse skal genereres inden for 3 år, som er den periode, der kan udstedes en betinget godkendelse for. For kombinationer af gule eksponerings- og farepotentialer er betingede godkendelser mulige for en tidsbegrænset periode. I dette tidsrum skal agenturet anmode registranten om at generere yderligere specifikke oplysninger. For at hjælpe industrien og navnlig små og mellemstore virksomheder med at implementere REACT NOW er der behov for teknisk- og ikke-teknisk bistand. Den skal leveres af den Europæiske Kommissions Joint Research Centre og det Europæiske Kemikalie Agentur. REACT NOW er det første forsøg på at præsentere en omfattende lovgivning, der er skræddersyet til nanomaterialer og disses anvendelser. Al lovgivning har styrker og svagheder. Det gælder også REACT NOW. Disse handler blandt andet om, at NanoRiskCat kan bruges på trods af mangel på data og information; om, hvordan man definerer "nødvendighed" og "effektivitet"; og om, at vurderingen af eksponeringspotentialet i NanoRiskCat velsagtens er noget simpel. Denne afhandling er baseret på 28 peer review artikler, som er inkluderet i appendiks til afhandlingen. Det er værd at pege på, at de fleste af de emner, der kort bliver diskuteret og præsenteret i kapitel 2-8, er beskrevet i de 28 artikler. Denne afhandling er skrevet for at præsentere REACT NOW og for at give læseren et overblik over de videnskabelige resultater, som er opnået. ; Nanotechnology and nanomaterials (NMs) have become an integrated part of our lives in the past decade, whether we realise it or not, and we have entered a phase where the early hype about the benefits of this mind-blowing technology is over. Concerns have been raised throughout this period about the adverse impacts of NMs, and although these have previously been very loud, they are now slowly quieting down. This is not because we have resolved the challenges related to assessing and managing the risks of NMs but rather because we seem to have caught a sense of "nanorisk-immunity" where we gradually have become more and more indifferent to hearing about the potential risks of NMs. Instead of implementing a regulatory framework tailored to NMs, the European Commission has initiated multiple reviews of state-of-the-scientific literature in regard to environmental, health and safety, and seems to be discussing the same risk assessment and regulatory challenges over and over. If history in regard to emerging risks and hazards can be used as a guide, we can now expect 15-20 years of univocal environmental, health and safety research that will not provide definitive answers but only dropwise glimpse into the true nature of the risks of NMs. This thesis summarises the state of research and regulatory affairs within the field of nanomaterial regulation and risk assessment. Specifically, the focus is on areas of research with which I have been involved since 2009 in regard to: 1) mapping current uses of NMs in Europe, 2) understanding the limitations of existing legislation and, finally, 3) addressing the restraints of risk assessment and alternatives to risk assessment when it comes to NMs. In order to obtain an overview of consumer products in Europe that are claimed to contain NMs or are claimed to be based on nanotechnology, we established an online inventory, The Nanodatabase (www.nanodb.dk), back in 2012 and started systematically to collect information about the proclaimed nanoproducts name, producers "nanoclaim", country of origin, used NMs, location of the NM in the product, most likely exposure route among other. The Nanodatabase originally contained a little more than 1,200 products and now has information about more than 3,000 products. Through our research, we found that most of the products fall into the category of "Health and Fitness" and "Home and Garden". The most used NMs are silver and titanium dioxide, but it is not possible to identify the NMs used for almost 60% of the products in the database. The safety evaluation tool, NanoRiskCat, was developed and integrated into The Nanodatabase with the purpose of communicating what is known about the hazard and exposure potential of consumer products containing NMs. In its simplest form, the final NanoRiskCat evaluation of a specific nanomaterial in a given application can be communicated in the form of a short title describing the use of the NM and a colour code whereby the first three coloured bullets (•••׀••) refer to the potential exposure of professional end-users, consumers and the environment – in that sequence – and the last two coloured bullets refer to the hazard potential for humans and the environment. The colours assigned to the exposure and hazard potential are green (•), yellow (•), red (•) and grey (•), corresponding to high, medium, low and unknown, respectively. A data analysis of the products in The Nanodatabase shows that for most product categories, the dominant route of exposure is dermal, and that the NanoRiskCat exposure potential as well as human and environmental hazard potential of most products is either "high (•)" or "unknown (•)". In order to address the potential risks of NMs and take the unique properties of NMs into account, a number of EU regulations and directives have been amended in recent years such as, for instance, the biocidal product regulation. However, the research presented in this thesis identifies three major weaknesses to the current regulation, namely how to define "nanomaterials", threshold values and information requirements not tailored to the nanoscale and how to overcome the obstacles of chemical risk assessment applied to NMs. The outcome of this research has led me to conclude that the fact that NMs are covered by the scope of existing legislation is not enough to ensure the protection of human health and the environment. We therefore need a new regulatory framework tailored for NMs and their applications. A proposal of such a framework termed "Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation, Categorisation and Tools to Evaluate Nanomaterials – Opportunities and Weaknesses (REACT NOW)" is proposed and presented herein. The thesis consists of nine chapters. An introduction is provided in chapter 1. In chapter 2, what is known about the current uses of NMs is presented in detail, and it is established that there is a general lack of data and access to data on, for example, production volumes and uses of NMs which hampers qualitative and quantitative occupational, consumer and environmental exposure assessment of NMs – and this in turn impedes the completion of any kind of risk assessment. The latter has repetitively led to questions being raised by politicians, NGOs, academics and members of the public about whether current regulatory frameworks are up to the job, as many of them rely heavily on, for instance, the completion of meaningful risk assessments. Chapter 3 is devoted to an analysis of the revisions that have been made to existing regulatory frameworks, such as REACH, BPR and food legislation, whereas Chapter 4 is allocated to an evaluation of proposed revisions made by a number of EU member states and REACH competent authorities such as German UBA, BfR and BAuA and the Swedish KEMI, as well as the NGOs CIEL, ClientEarth and BUND. It is concluded that the revisions that have been implemented for existing EU legislation and the proposed revisions by UBA, BfR and BAuA, KEMI and CIEL, ClientEarth and BUND collectively provide a lot of opportunities. However, a number of weaknesses have also been identified and these are elaborated on and discussed in Chapter 5, as they continue to dog the effective regulation of NMs and still need to be addressed. In recognition of the challenges that traditional chemical risk assessments entail, and outstanding scientific research questions that still need to be resolved, no less than 50 alternative decision-support tools, or supplements to traditional risk assessments, have been explored and proposed in recent years. These are analysed in Chapter 6, in order to identify tools that could potentially be used to support a new regulatory framework tailored specifically for NMs and their applications throughout the life cycle. This evaluation is based on a series of recent scientific publications which provide substantial reviews of these alternative tools applied in regard to risk governance, worker protection, consumer exposure, environmental assessment, waste, etc. This led to the realisation that we need a tool that is both regulatory-relevant and can be applied despite the lack of data and lack of access to information. Safety evaluation plays a key role in REACT NOW and the safety evaluation tool NanoRiskCat developed by Hansen et al. (2014, 2017c) is presented in detail in chapter 7. A strength of NanoRiskCat is that it has been applied to more than 2,000 products claimed to include NMs or to be based on nanotechnology. The outcome of this is presented in this thesis. Finally, in Chapter 8, REACT NOW is introduced and key components of the framework are outlined. As part of REACT NOW, I recommend that manufacturers and importers of NMs should be required to register their NM(s) prior to commercialisation and independent of production and import volumes. For NM(s) already being sold, manufacturers and importers should be required to register and fulfil the REACT NOW requirements within a certain time period e.g. six months of the adoption of the framework. NMs are defined according to SCENIHR's definition and not the one recommended by the EC. Primary particle size distribution, shape (including aspect ratio), specific surface area and surface treatment are considered "identifiers" and not the "characterisers" as suggested by UBA, BfR and BAuA (2013). In practice, this means that any variation in size, shape, surface area and surface-treated NM that is commercialised in the EU has to be identified, named, registered and safety-evaluated separately, before it is placed into a separate registration dossier. The European Chemicals Agency is identified as the European authority that should be responsible for the management and carrying out the technical and administrative aspects of REACT NOW, however the burden of proof of safety should be placed on industry to ensure that data are generated in good time. In order to ensure the protection of health and the environment, I recommend that the registrant should be required to explain a relevant product's functional use, provide justification for its use and carry out an effectiveness evaluation prior to the commercialisation of any nanomaterial. Following the requirements of REACT NOW, all uses of NMs have to be evaluated according to NanoRiskCat. The health and environmental hazard information required as part of the information requirements focuses on enabling the application of NanoRiskCat. In regard to human health it includes High Aspect Ratio Nanoparticles (HARN), bulk CLP classification, acutely toxicity, genotoxicity and mutagenicity, carcinogenicity and respiratory toxicity. For the environment, it includes bulk CLP classification, aquatic toxicity, freshwater tests for degradation, bioaccumulation and a scientific review in regard to dispersive or long-range transport, ecosystem effects and novelty. It is important to note that NanoRiskCat uses a tiered approach and that the registrant only has to submit enough information to enable the categorisation of the health and environmental hazard potential of the specific NM into high (•), medium (•), low (•) or unknown (•). Depending on the outcome of the NanoRiskCat evaluation, manufacturers and importers of NMs and producers of NM products might have to seek authorisation, which can only be given for specific uses of NMs and nanoproducts that are deemed necessary, efficient and have a functional use. For NMs that have undergone a NanoRiskCat evaluation and have 1) a red professional end-user and/or a consumer exposure profile combined with a red human health hazard profile and/or 2) a red environmental exposure profile combined with a red environmental hazard profile, the registrant is required to complete an "Alternatives Assessment" and the agency responsible for REACT NOW is required to seek opinion on safe use from the European scientific committee of relevance. In such cases, authorisation should be granted, but only if the specific use under consideration is deemed safe and necessary. Uses of NMs deemed not to be safe by the scientific committees e.g. dispersive uses of HARN, indoor consumer uses of spray products with NMs associated with respiratory toxicity, should not be granted authorisation and should not be given permission to be marketed in Europe. For all other combinations of exposure and hazard profiles, i.e. NanoRiskCat categories 2-4, the agency responsible for REACT NOW can ask for an opinion from the scientific committees of relevance on a case-by-case basis. As a general rule, authorisation should only be given for specific professional end-user and consumer applications of NMs and nanoproducts, if they have a green human health hazard profile combined with a green professional end-user exposure profile and a consumer exposure profile, respectively. The same goes for uses that are expected to lead to environmental exposure that should only be granted authorisation if the NM in question has a green environmental hazard profile. Should the agency or the scientific committees have questions about the safety of a given NM and its specific use, the agency can make a request for additional information, to be generated within 3 years, within which time conditional authorisation can be granted. For combinations of yellow exposure and hazard profiles, conditional authorisation is possible for a time-limited period during which time the agency should request the generation of additional information by the registrant. In order to assist industry and especially Small and Medium-sized Enterprises in the process of implementing REACT NOW, technical and non-technical assistance is needed and should be provided by the European Commission Joint Research Centre and the European Chemicals Agency. REACT NOW is the first attempt to present a comprehensive and transparent decision-making framework tailored to regulate the use of NMs, but as no framework is without either potential or limitations, the opportunities and weaknesses related to the implementation of REACT NOW are pinpointed. Strengths include that NanoRiskCat can be used despite lack of data and information, whereas the lack of clear-cut definitions of "necessity" and "effectiveness" could be considered a weakness along with the arguably crude exposure assessment in NanoRiskCat. In the appendix, the 28 peer reviewed journal papers on which this thesis is based are included. It is worth pointing out that most of the topics briefly discussed and presented in Chapters 2-8 are detailed in the journal papers and that this thesis is written to present REACT NOW and to give the reader an overview of the original achievements of the work.
Der Eintrag von Phosphor in die Umwelt führt zur Eutrophierung von Gewässern, sodass ein Großteil dieser innerhalb der Europäischen Union (EU) in keinem guten chemischen Zustand ist. Phosphor gelangt überwiegend auf zwei Wegen in die Umwelt, diffus durch Auswaschung von auf landwirtschaftlichen Flächen ausgebrachten Düngemitteln oder punktuell über das gereinigte Abwasser. Der Eintragspfad über das Abwasser umfasst auch die zahlreichen dezentralen Kleinkläranlagen (KKA), die in letzter Zeit zunehmend in den Fokus rückten. So muss zum Beispiel durch die Verschärfung der gesetzlichen Vorgaben in sensiblen Gebieten in Bayern auch in KKA eine Phosphorentfernung realisiert werden. Ein weiterer Aspekt in diesem Zusammenhang ist, dass die EU-Staaten auf Importe von Phosphor sowie Phosphaterz angewiesen sind, sodass eine gezielte Rückgewinnung des entfernten Phosphors anzustreben ist. Ziel dieser Dissertation war die Entwicklung eines nachhaltigen Verfahrenskonzeptes zur wartungsarmen Phosphorentfernung in KKA unter Gewinnung eines marktfähigen Phosphorproduktes, wobei eine Adsorptionsstufe den Kern des Verfahrens bilden sollte. Die Phosphorentfernung aus der Wasserphase in einem Festbettadsorber ermöglicht neben dem wartungsarmen Betrieb, einen geringen Platzbedarf, eine hohe Effizienz und nach der wirtschaftlich notwendigen Adsorbensregenerierung die vergleichsweise einfache Phosphorrückgewinnung durch Fällung. Viele verschiedene Materialien, von synthetischen Mineralen und Ionenaustauschern über Hybridmaterialien bis hin zu industriellen Nebenprodukten, wurden anhand von Literaturangaben und Laborversuchen bezüglich ihrer Eignung zur Phosphatadsorption betrachtet. Für potenziell geeignete Materialien mit hoher Verfügbarkeit wurde mit Hilfe des Linear Driving Force (LDF-) Modells eine validierte Prognose für einen Festbettadsorber in einer KKA erstellt. Dabei wurde die geforderte Phosphorkonzentration von maximal 2 mg/L im Ablauf des Festbettadsorbers während des sechsmonatigen Wartungsintervalls insbesondere durch die granulierten Eisenoxidhydrate GEH® 104 und Bayoxide® E 33 HC eingehalten. Die weiteren Untersuchungen erfolgten überwiegend am Beispiel des Adsorbens GEH® 104. Die Phosphatadsorption an GEH® 104 in einem biologisch gereinigten Abwasser wird lediglich durch den pH-Wert und die Gesamthärte signifikant beeinflusst. Diese Abhängigkeit lässt sich gut mit Hilfe eines empirisch ermittelten Gleichungssystems beschreiben, welches die Berechnung der Freundlich-Parameter der Gleichgewichtsisotherme und des effektiven Stofftransportkoeffizienten der Korndiffusion aus diesen Wasserparametern ermöglicht. Die Anwendung dieses Gleichungssystems erlaubt den Verzicht auf mehrwöchige Laborversuche. Die Dimensionierung eines Festbettadsorbers in einer KKA mit dem LDF-Modell basierend auf dem pH-Wert (6.8), der Gesamthärte (0,5.4,5 M) und der Phosphatkonzentration (ca. 50 mg/L) ist so innerhalb einiger Minuten möglich. Die Wirtschaftlichkeit der adsorptiven Phosphorentfernung wird durch eine erfolgreiche Regenerierung mitbestimmt. Es konnte nachgewiesen werden, dass vor allem auf der Adsorbensoberfläche abgeschiedene Calciumphosphate zu Verlusten von bis zu 85 % der Adsorptionskapazität der eingesetzten Eisenoxidhydrate führen. Etwa 80 % des Calciums liegen auf der Adsorbensoberfläche physisorbiert vor, während die restlichen 20 % durch lokale Ausfällungen die Oberfläche blockieren. Die neu entwickelte pH-Swing-Regenerierung, die eine saure Konditionierung bei pH 2,5 vor der alkalischen Phosphatdesorption enthält, entfernt diese Ablagerungen. Dabei werden die Eisenoxidhydratadsorbentien vollständig regeneriert und währenddessen nur zu etwa 0,0001 % aufgelöst. Über 13 Regenerierungszyklen wurde keine Verringerung der Adsorptionskapazität weder in Modell- noch gereinigtem Abwasser beobachtet. Die saure Konditionierung bei pH 2,5 lässt sich mit den Mineralsäuren HCl und HNO3 realisieren, wobei sich eine Kreislaufführung als vorteilhaft hinsichtlich des Chemikalieneinsatzes erwies. Zur Desorption von 95 % des adsorbierten Phosphats waren 5 Bettvolumen (BV) der 1 M NaOH bei einer Leeraumkontaktzeit (EBCT) von mindestens 25 min ausreichend. Die abschließende Rekonditionierung im Kreislauf erfolgte mit 2 BV Wasser sowie 0,16 BV HCl (konz.) zur Einstellung von pH 6 auf der Adsorbensoberfläche. Aus der phosphatreichen Desorptionslösung wurde durch Verwendung technischer, feindisperser Kalkmilch ein amorphes Calciumphosphat (aCP) mit einem Phosphorgehalt von mindestens 10 % gefällt, während die Natronlauge zur erneuten Phosphatdesorption zur Verfügung stand. Das aCP enthielt Calciumcarbonat und -hydroxid als Nebenbestandteile, während der TOC unter 1 % lag. Im Gegensatz zu organischen Spurenstoffen adsorbierten Schwermetalle an GEH® 104 und wurden bei der sauren Konditionierung zu großen Teilen wieder entfernt. Das während eines Pilotversuchs an einer KKA gewonnene Fällungsprodukt (Pilot-aCP) hielt die gesetzlichen Anforderungen für Düngemittel in Deutschland und der EU bezüglich des Gehalts an Schwermetallen ein. Es wies zudem eine ausreichende Citrat-, Neutralammoniumcitrat und Wasserlöslichkeit auf und könnte als Düngemittel eingesetzt werden. Insgesamt ist das Verfahren der dezentralen adsorptiven Phosphorentfernung mit zentraler pH-Swing-Regenerierung deutlich wirtschaftlicher als die Einmalnutzung des Adsorbens ohne Regenerierung. Auch wenn das Pilot-aCP lediglich als Nebenprodukt der Adsorbensregenerierung anfällt, kann das Verfahren in mehreren Punkten (Phosphorrückgewinnungsgrad, Produktqualität, Markt und Kompatibilität mit der bestehenden Infrastruktur auf Kläranlagen) mit anderen Technologien zur Phosphorrückgewinnung konkurrieren. Es bietet eine zuverlässige Lösung für das Erreichen niedriger Ablaufwerte für Phosphor in (Klein-)Kläranlagen.:1. Einleitung 1.1. Bedeutung von Phosphor für den menschlichen Organismus 1.2. Phosphoreintrag in die Umwelt 1.3. Zielstellung und Struktur der Dissertation 2. Grundlagen 2.1. Ressourcenverteilung und -entwicklung 2.2. Strategien zum nachhaltigen Phosphormanagement in der Landwirtschaft 2.3. Phosphor in der zentralen Abwasserreinigung 2.3.1. Phosphorentfernung an punktuellen Emissionsquellen 2.3.2. Phosphorrückgewinnung 2.4. Kleinkläranlagen zur Abwasserbehandlung und Phosphorentfernung 2.4.1. Abwasserbehandlung in Kleinkläranlagen 2.4.2. Phosphorentfernung in Kleinkläranlagen 2.5. Technische Adsorption 2.5.1. Adsorptionsgleichgewicht 2.5.2. Adsorptionsmodellierung 3. Potenziell geeignete Materialien zur Phosphatadsorption in Kleinkläranlagen - Adsorbensauswahl 3.1. Stand der Forschung 3.1.1. Ionenaustauscher 3.1.1.1. Klassische Ionenaustauscher 3.1.1.2. Schichthydroxide 3.1.2. Hybridmaterialien 3.1.2.1. Polymere Ligandenaustauscher (PLE) 3.1.2.2. Hybride Anionenaustauscher (HAIX) 3.1.3. Adsorbentien 3.1.3.1. Verbindungen der Hauptelemente der Erdhülle 3.1.3.2. Verbindungen der Nebenelemente der Erdhülle 3.1.3.3. Kohlenstoffbasierte Materialien 3.1.3.4. Industrielle Nebenprodukte 3.1.4. Auswahl geeigneter Adsorbentien 3.1.5. Auslegung eines Festbettadsorbers in KKA 3.2. Material und Methoden 3.2.1. Chemikalien und angewandte Analysenverfahren 3.2.2. Untersuchte Adsorbentien 3.2.2.1. Klassische Adsorbentien 3.2.2.2. Hybride Anionenaustauscher (HAIX) 3.2.3. Modellabwasser 3.2.4. Methoden zur Untersuchung der Phosphatadsorption 3.2.5. Zur Modellierung eingesetzte Programme 3.3. Modellierung einer 4 EW-KKA 3.3.1. Erhobene experimentelle Daten 3.3.1.1. Wasserzusammensetzung einer KKA 3.3.1.2. Bestimmung der Freundlich-Isothermen der Adsorbentien - Adsorptionsgleichgewicht 3.3.1.3. Untersuchung der Kinetik der Korndiffusion 3.3.2. Modellierung der Durchbruchskurve 3.3.2.1. Basisdaten 3.3.2.2. Modellierung der Durchbruchskurven 3.3.3. Experimentelle Validierung der modellierten Durchbruchskurven im Labor 3.3.4. Erstellung der Prognose eines Festbettadsorbers zur Phosphatentfernung in einer 4-EW-KKA 4. Wasserchemische Einflussfaktoren auf die Phosphatadsorption an Eisenoxidhydraten 4.1. Stand der Forschung 4.1.1. Phosphatbindung an Eisenoxidhydraten 4.1.2. Phosphatadsorption in Anwesenheit anderer Anionen 4.1.3. Phosphatadsorption in Anwesenheit organischer Stoffe 4.1.4. Phosphatadsorption in Gegenwart von Kationen 4.2. Material und Methoden 4.2.1. Chemikalien und angewandte Analysenverfahren 4.2.2. Modellwässer 4.2.3. Methoden 4.3. Untersuchung der Einflussfaktoren auf die Phosphatadsorption an GEH® 104 4.3.1. Phosphatadsorption in Anwesenheit anionischer Verbindungen 4.3.2. Phosphatadsorption in Gegenwart von Kationen 4.3.2.1. Einfluss des pH-Wertes 4.3.2.2. Einfluss der Calciumkonzentration 4.3.2.3. Einfluss der Magnesiumkonzentration 4.3.2.4. Einfluss der Gesamthärte des Wassers 4.4. Matrixanpassbare Modellierung der Phosphatadsorption an GEH® 104 5. Regenerierung von Eisenoxidhydraten 5.1. Stand der Forschung 5.2. Material und Methoden 5.2.1. Chemikalien 5.2.2. Angewandte Analysenverfahren 5.2.3. Modellwässer 5.2.4. Methodik der Adsorbensregenerierung 5.2.4.1. Aufnahme von Durchbruchskurven 5.2.4.2. Beladen des Adsorbens zur Untersuchung der Regenerierung 5.2.4.3. Vergleich der Calciumdesorption mit verschiedenen Desorptionslösungen 5.2.4.4. Entfernung von Ablagerungen durch saure Konditionierung 5.2.4.5. Desorption von Phosphat 5.2.4.6. Rekonditionierung des Adsorbens 5.2.5. Zur Modellierung eingesetzte Programme 5.3. Untersuchung der Adsorbensoberfläche 5.4. Entfernung des Oberflächenbelags 5.4.1. Einführung einer sauren Konditionierungsstufe 5.4.1.1. Säurestabilität des Adsorbens und möglicher Oberflächenpräzipitate 5.4.1.2. Wechselwirkungen von Calcium mit der Adsorbensoberfläche 5.4.1.3. Auswahl des Konditionierungsmittels 5.4.1.4. Auswahl des pH-Wertes für die saure Konditionierung 5.4.1.5. Übertragbarkeit der sauren Konditionierung auf weitere eisenoxidhydrathaltige Adsorbentien 5.4.1.6. Auswirkung der sauren Konditionierung auf die Ablagerungen 5.4.1.7. Auswirkung der sauren Konditionierung auf die Adsorbensoberfläche 5.4.2. Validierung der sauren Konditionierung 5.5. Optimierung der pH-Swing-Regenerierung 5.5.1. Optimierung der Betriebsweise der sauren Konditionierung 5.5.1.1. Kreislaufführung 5.5.1.2. Wiederverwendung der Konditionierungslösung 5.5.2. Optimierung der Phosphatdesorption 5.5.2.1. Einfluss der Konzentration der Natronlauge auf die Phosphatdesorption 5.5.2.2. Einfluss der Kontaktzeit auf die Phosphatdesorption 5.5.2.3. Prozessführung zur Phosphatdesorption von GEH® 104 5.5.3. Optimierung der Rekonditionierung des Adsorbens 5.5.4. Zusammenfassung 6. Phosphorrückgewinnung 6.1. Stand der Forschung 6.1.1. Gewinnung von Phosphatrecyclaten 6.1.2. Schadstofftransfer vom Abwasser in Phosphatrecyclate 6.1.2.1. Organische Spurenstoffe 6.1.2.2. Schwermetalle 6.1.3. Pflanzenverfügbarkeit von Phosphatrecyclaten 6.2. Material und Methoden 6.2.1. Chemikalien 6.2.2. Angewandte Analysenverfahren 6.2.3. Verwendete Wässer 6.2.4. Methodik zur Untersuchung der Phosphorrückgewinnung 6.3. Phosphatfällung 6.3.1. Auswahl des Fällmittels 6.3.2. Zusammensetzung des Fällungsproduktes 6.4. Verhalten organischer Spurenstoffe bei der Phosphorrückgewinnung 6.5. Untersuchung der Düngemitteleignung anhand einer Pilotanlage zur Phosphorentfernung aus KKA 6.5.1. Adsorbensbeladung im Pilotmaßstab 6.5.2. Regenerierung von Pilotversuchsmaterial 6.5.2.1. Saure Konditionierung als Schwermetalldesorption 6.5.2.2. Verunreinigungen bei der Phosphatdesorption 6.5.2.3. Phosphorrückgewinnung aus dem Pilotversuch 6.5.3. Pflanzenverfügbarkeit 7. Diskussion 7.1. Verfahrenskonzept für die Phosphorentfernung in Kleinkläranlagen (KKA) 7.2. Verfahrensbewertung 7.2.1. Technologie 7.2.1.1. Rückgewinnungsgrad 7.2.1.2. Inputflexibilität 7.2.2. Produkt 7.2.3. Markt 7.2.4. Umwelt 7.2.4.1. Chemikalieneinsatz 7.2.4.2. Energiebedarf 7.2.4.3. Anfallende Abfälle 7.2.5. Wirtschaftlichkeit 7.2.5.1. Investitionsbedarf 7.2.5.2. Operative Kosten 7.2.5.3. Produktertrag 7.2.5.4. Zusatzerträge und -nutzen 7.2.6. Kompatibilität 7.2.6.1. Einfluss auf die heutige Entsorgungslandschaft 7.2.6.2. Kompatibilität mit dem Betrieb der Kläranlage 7.2.7. Rechtlicher Rahmen 7.2.8. Zusammenfassung der Verfahrensbewertung 7.3. Fazit 8. Publikationsliste Literaturverzeichnis Abkürzungsverzeichnis Symbolverzeichnis Abbildungsverzeichnis Tabellenverzeichnis A. Anhang A.1. Anhang Kapitel 3 A.1.1. Materialien zur Phosphatentfernung in der Literatur A.1.1.1. Ionenaustauscher A.1.1.2. Hybridmaterialien A.1.1.3. Adsorbentien A.1.2. Aufbau eines Differentialkreislaufreaktors A.1.3. Bestimmung des geschwindigkeitsbestimmenden Schrittes der Adsorption A.1.4. Validierung der Modellierung mit LDF-Modell A.2. Anhang Kapitel 4 A.2.1. Phosphatdurchbruchskurve mit variierender Sulfatkonzentration A.2.2. Phosphatisotherme bei variierendem pH-Wert A.2.3. Wasserhärte in Deutschland nach Wasserversorgern A.2.4. Phosphatadsorption in Abhängigkeit von den vorliegenden Kationen A.2.5. Zweifaktorielle Varianzanalyse A.3. Anhang Kapitel 5 A.3.1. Saure Konditionierung im Kreislauf A.3.2. Löslichkeitsmodellierung mit PHREEQC A.3.3. Desorbierbarkeit von Calcium und Magnesium mit Natriumnitratlösung A.3.4. Austrag von Calcium, Phosphat und Eisen bei der sauren Konditionierung von beladenem Bayoxide® E 33 HC A.3.5. Reproduzierbarkeit des Phosphatdurchbruchs bei pH-Swing-Regenerierung mit Salpetersäure A.3.6. Zusammensetzung verschiedener Calciumphosphate A.4. Anhang Kapitel 6 A.4.1. Grenzwerte für Schwermetalle in mineralischen und Recyclingphosphordüngemitteln in Europa A.4.2. Messbedingungen für die Analysen mittels LC-MS/MS A.4.3. Thermische Zersetzung von amorphem Calciumphosphat A.4.4. Phosphorentfernung in der Pilotanlage in Bramsche A.4.5. Regenerierung eines beladenen Adsorbens aus der Pilotanlage A.4.6. Untersuchte organische Spurenstoffe bei der Gewinnung von Pilot-aCP A.5. Anhang Kapitel 7 A.5.1. Kostenabschätzung für das Verfahrenskonzept zur Phosphorentfernung auf KKA A.5.2. Preisentwicklung für Phosphate von 1999 bis 2019 auf dem Weltmarkt A.5.3. Einordnung des entwickelten Verfahrenskonzeptes nach dem BAFU-Leitfaden Danksagung Erklärung ; Phosphorus pollution of the environment causes the eutrophication of surface water bodies, so many of them within the European Union (EU) are not in good status. Phosphorus enters the environment mainly via two pathways, diffusely by leaching of fertilizers applied to agricultural areas or as a point source via treated wastewater. The discharge via wastewater also includes the numerous decentralized small sewage treatment plants (SSTPs), that have increasingly come into focus. For example, a tightening of the legal requirements in sensitive areas in Bavaria requires the implementation of phosphorus removal also in SSTPs. Another aspect is the dependency of the EU on imports of phosphorus and phosphate ore, so the removed phosphorus should therefore be recovered. The aim of this dissertation was to develop a sustainable process concept for low-maintenance phosphorus removal in SSTPs while obtaining a marketable phosphorus product, based on an adsorption stage. Using a fixed-bed adsorber for phosphorus removal allows operation with low maintenance, low space requirements and high efficiency. Moreover, after the economically necessary adsorbent regeneration, a comparatively easy phosphorus recovery using precipitation is possible. Many different materials, beginning with synthetic minerals and ion exchange resins to hybrid materials and industrial by-products, were examined for their suitability for phosphate adsorption based on literature references and laboratory tests. For potentially suitable materials with high availability, a validated prognosis of the fixed-bed adsorber performance in a SSTP was carried out using the linear driving force (LDF) model. Only the granular ferric (hydr)oxides GEH® 104 and Bayoxide® E 33 HC met the required phosphorus concentration of a maximum of 2 mg/L in the effluent of the fixed-bed adsorber during the six-month maintenance interval. Further investigations were mainly carried out using the adsorbent GEH® 104 as an example. The phosphate adsorption onto GEH® 104 in biologically treated wastewater is significantly influenced only by pH and total hardness. This dependence can be described well by an empirical system of equations that allows the calculation of the Freundlich parameters of the equilibrium isotherm and the effective intraparticle mass transfer coefficient for the given conditions. The application of this system of equations allows the avoidance of time-consuming laboratory experiments. In contrast to the weeks of lab experiments, the scale-up of a fixed-bed adsorber in a SSTP with the LDF model based on pH value (6.8), total hardness (0.5.4.5 M) and phosphate concentration (approx. 50 mg/L) takes only a few minutes. The economic efficiency of adsorptive phosphorus removal depends on a successful regeneration. It was demonstrated that the calcium phosphates precipitated on the adsorbent surface caused losses of up to 85 % of the adsorption capacity of the ferric (hydr)oxide used. About 80 % of the calcium is bound via physisorption on the adsorbent surface, while the remaining 20 % blocks the surface by local precipitation. A newly developed pH-swing-regeneration, which includes an acidic conditioning at pH 2.5 prior to alkaline phosphate desorption, was found to remove these deposits. During this process the ferric (hydr)oxides are completely regenerated and the mass loss by dissolution is only about 0.0001 %. For 13 regeneration cycles no reduction in adsorption capacity was observed, neither for model nor for biologically treated wastewater. Acidic conditioning at pH 2.5 can be carried out using the mineral acids HCl and HNO3. A recirculation of these acids proved to be advantageous regarding the consumption of chemicals. For the desorption of 95 % of the adsorbed phosphate, 5 bed volumes (BV) of 1 M NaOH with an empty bed contact time (EBCT) of at least 25 min were sufficient. The final reconditioning requires 2 BV of water and 0.16 BV of HCl (conc.) to adjust the pH on the adsorbent surface to 6. The phosphate-rich desorption solution was used for the precipitation of an amorphous calcium phosphate (aCP) using technical grade, fine dispersed milk of lime. The phosphorus content of aCP was at least 10 % and the sodium hydroxide solution can be used for renewed phosphate desorption. The aCP contained calcium carbonate and hydroxide as minor constituents, while organic carbon content was below 1 %. In contrast to organic micropollutants, heavy metals adsorbed onto GEH® 104 and were largely removed during acidic conditioning. However, the precipitation product obtained during a pilot test at a SSTP (pilot-aCP) meets the legal requirements for fertilizers in Germany and the EU regarding heavy metal content. In addition, it was sufficiently soluble in citrate, neutral ammonium citrate and water and could therefore be used as a fertilizer. In summary the process of decentralized adsorptive phosphorus removal with centralized pH-swing-regeneration is more economical than the one-time use of the adsorbent without regeneration. Even though the pilot-aCP is only a by-product of adsorbent regeneration, the process can compete with other phosphorus recovery technologies in several aspects (phosphorus recovery efficiency, product quality, market and compatibility with existing infrastructure at sewage treatment plants). It offers a reliable solution for achieving low effluent values for phosphorus in (small) sewage treatment plants.:1. Einleitung 1.1. Bedeutung von Phosphor für den menschlichen Organismus 1.2. Phosphoreintrag in die Umwelt 1.3. Zielstellung und Struktur der Dissertation 2. Grundlagen 2.1. Ressourcenverteilung und -entwicklung 2.2. Strategien zum nachhaltigen Phosphormanagement in der Landwirtschaft 2.3. Phosphor in der zentralen Abwasserreinigung 2.3.1. Phosphorentfernung an punktuellen Emissionsquellen 2.3.2. Phosphorrückgewinnung 2.4. Kleinkläranlagen zur Abwasserbehandlung und Phosphorentfernung 2.4.1. Abwasserbehandlung in Kleinkläranlagen 2.4.2. Phosphorentfernung in Kleinkläranlagen 2.5. Technische Adsorption 2.5.1. Adsorptionsgleichgewicht 2.5.2. Adsorptionsmodellierung 3. Potenziell geeignete Materialien zur Phosphatadsorption in Kleinkläranlagen - Adsorbensauswahl 3.1. Stand der Forschung 3.1.1. Ionenaustauscher 3.1.1.1. Klassische Ionenaustauscher 3.1.1.2. Schichthydroxide 3.1.2. Hybridmaterialien 3.1.2.1. Polymere Ligandenaustauscher (PLE) 3.1.2.2. Hybride Anionenaustauscher (HAIX) 3.1.3. Adsorbentien 3.1.3.1. Verbindungen der Hauptelemente der Erdhülle 3.1.3.2. Verbindungen der Nebenelemente der Erdhülle 3.1.3.3. Kohlenstoffbasierte Materialien 3.1.3.4. Industrielle Nebenprodukte 3.1.4. Auswahl geeigneter Adsorbentien 3.1.5. Auslegung eines Festbettadsorbers in KKA 3.2. Material und Methoden 3.2.1. Chemikalien und angewandte Analysenverfahren 3.2.2. Untersuchte Adsorbentien 3.2.2.1. Klassische Adsorbentien 3.2.2.2. Hybride Anionenaustauscher (HAIX) 3.2.3. Modellabwasser 3.2.4. Methoden zur Untersuchung der Phosphatadsorption 3.2.5. Zur Modellierung eingesetzte Programme 3.3. Modellierung einer 4 EW-KKA 3.3.1. Erhobene experimentelle Daten 3.3.1.1. Wasserzusammensetzung einer KKA 3.3.1.2. Bestimmung der Freundlich-Isothermen der Adsorbentien - Adsorptionsgleichgewicht 3.3.1.3. Untersuchung der Kinetik der Korndiffusion 3.3.2. Modellierung der Durchbruchskurve 3.3.2.1. Basisdaten 3.3.2.2. Modellierung der Durchbruchskurven 3.3.3. Experimentelle Validierung der modellierten Durchbruchskurven im Labor 3.3.4. Erstellung der Prognose eines Festbettadsorbers zur Phosphatentfernung in einer 4-EW-KKA 4. Wasserchemische Einflussfaktoren auf die Phosphatadsorption an Eisenoxidhydraten 4.1. Stand der Forschung 4.1.1. Phosphatbindung an Eisenoxidhydraten 4.1.2. Phosphatadsorption in Anwesenheit anderer Anionen 4.1.3. Phosphatadsorption in Anwesenheit organischer Stoffe 4.1.4. Phosphatadsorption in Gegenwart von Kationen 4.2. Material und Methoden 4.2.1. Chemikalien und angewandte Analysenverfahren 4.2.2. Modellwässer 4.2.3. Methoden 4.3. Untersuchung der Einflussfaktoren auf die Phosphatadsorption an GEH® 104 4.3.1. Phosphatadsorption in Anwesenheit anionischer Verbindungen 4.3.2. Phosphatadsorption in Gegenwart von Kationen 4.3.2.1. Einfluss des pH-Wertes 4.3.2.2. Einfluss der Calciumkonzentration 4.3.2.3. Einfluss der Magnesiumkonzentration 4.3.2.4. Einfluss der Gesamthärte des Wassers 4.4. Matrixanpassbare Modellierung der Phosphatadsorption an GEH® 104 5. Regenerierung von Eisenoxidhydraten 5.1. Stand der Forschung 5.2. Material und Methoden 5.2.1. Chemikalien 5.2.2. Angewandte Analysenverfahren 5.2.3. Modellwässer 5.2.4. Methodik der Adsorbensregenerierung 5.2.4.1. Aufnahme von Durchbruchskurven 5.2.4.2. Beladen des Adsorbens zur Untersuchung der Regenerierung 5.2.4.3. Vergleich der Calciumdesorption mit verschiedenen Desorptionslösungen 5.2.4.4. Entfernung von Ablagerungen durch saure Konditionierung 5.2.4.5. Desorption von Phosphat 5.2.4.6. Rekonditionierung des Adsorbens 5.2.5. Zur Modellierung eingesetzte Programme 5.3. Untersuchung der Adsorbensoberfläche 5.4. Entfernung des Oberflächenbelags 5.4.1. Einführung einer sauren Konditionierungsstufe 5.4.1.1. Säurestabilität des Adsorbens und möglicher Oberflächenpräzipitate 5.4.1.2. Wechselwirkungen von Calcium mit der Adsorbensoberfläche 5.4.1.3. Auswahl des Konditionierungsmittels 5.4.1.4. Auswahl des pH-Wertes für die saure Konditionierung 5.4.1.5. Übertragbarkeit der sauren Konditionierung auf weitere eisenoxidhydrathaltige Adsorbentien 5.4.1.6. Auswirkung der sauren Konditionierung auf die Ablagerungen 5.4.1.7. Auswirkung der sauren Konditionierung auf die Adsorbensoberfläche 5.4.2. Validierung der sauren Konditionierung 5.5. Optimierung der pH-Swing-Regenerierung 5.5.1. Optimierung der Betriebsweise der sauren Konditionierung 5.5.1.1. Kreislaufführung 5.5.1.2. Wiederverwendung der Konditionierungslösung 5.5.2. Optimierung der Phosphatdesorption 5.5.2.1. Einfluss der Konzentration der Natronlauge auf die Phosphatdesorption 5.5.2.2. Einfluss der Kontaktzeit auf die Phosphatdesorption 5.5.2.3. Prozessführung zur Phosphatdesorption von GEH® 104 5.5.3. Optimierung der Rekonditionierung des Adsorbens 5.5.4. Zusammenfassung 6. Phosphorrückgewinnung 6.1. Stand der Forschung 6.1.1. Gewinnung von Phosphatrecyclaten 6.1.2. Schadstofftransfer vom Abwasser in Phosphatrecyclate 6.1.2.1. Organische Spurenstoffe 6.1.2.2. Schwermetalle 6.1.3. Pflanzenverfügbarkeit von Phosphatrecyclaten 6.2. Material und Methoden 6.2.1. Chemikalien 6.2.2. Angewandte Analysenverfahren 6.2.3. Verwendete Wässer 6.2.4. Methodik zur Untersuchung der Phosphorrückgewinnung 6.3. Phosphatfällung 6.3.1. Auswahl des Fällmittels 6.3.2. Zusammensetzung des Fällungsproduktes 6.4. Verhalten organischer Spurenstoffe bei der Phosphorrückgewinnung 6.5. Untersuchung der Düngemitteleignung anhand einer Pilotanlage zur Phosphorentfernung aus KKA 6.5.1. Adsorbensbeladung im Pilotmaßstab 6.5.2. Regenerierung von Pilotversuchsmaterial 6.5.2.1. Saure Konditionierung als Schwermetalldesorption 6.5.2.2. Verunreinigungen bei der Phosphatdesorption 6.5.2.3. Phosphorrückgewinnung aus dem Pilotversuch 6.5.3. Pflanzenverfügbarkeit 7. Diskussion 7.1. Verfahrenskonzept für die Phosphorentfernung in Kleinkläranlagen (KKA) 7.2. Verfahrensbewertung 7.2.1. Technologie 7.2.1.1. Rückgewinnungsgrad 7.2.1.2. Inputflexibilität 7.2.2. Produkt 7.2.3. Markt 7.2.4. Umwelt 7.2.4.1. Chemikalieneinsatz 7.2.4.2. Energiebedarf 7.2.4.3. Anfallende Abfälle 7.2.5. Wirtschaftlichkeit 7.2.5.1. Investitionsbedarf 7.2.5.2. Operative Kosten 7.2.5.3. Produktertrag 7.2.5.4. Zusatzerträge und -nutzen 7.2.6. Kompatibilität 7.2.6.1. Einfluss auf die heutige Entsorgungslandschaft 7.2.6.2. Kompatibilität mit dem Betrieb der Kläranlage 7.2.7. Rechtlicher Rahmen 7.2.8. Zusammenfassung der Verfahrensbewertung 7.3. Fazit 8. Publikationsliste Literaturverzeichnis Abkürzungsverzeichnis Symbolverzeichnis Abbildungsverzeichnis Tabellenverzeichnis A. Anhang A.1. Anhang Kapitel 3 A.1.1. Materialien zur Phosphatentfernung in der Literatur A.1.1.1. Ionenaustauscher A.1.1.2. Hybridmaterialien A.1.1.3. Adsorbentien A.1.2. Aufbau eines Differentialkreislaufreaktors A.1.3. Bestimmung des geschwindigkeitsbestimmenden Schrittes der Adsorption A.1.4. Validierung der Modellierung mit LDF-Modell A.2. Anhang Kapitel 4 A.2.1. Phosphatdurchbruchskurve mit variierender Sulfatkonzentration A.2.2. Phosphatisotherme bei variierendem pH-Wert A.2.3. Wasserhärte in Deutschland nach Wasserversorgern A.2.4. Phosphatadsorption in Abhängigkeit von den vorliegenden Kationen A.2.5. Zweifaktorielle Varianzanalyse A.3. Anhang Kapitel 5 A.3.1. Saure Konditionierung im Kreislauf A.3.2. Löslichkeitsmodellierung mit PHREEQC A.3.3. Desorbierbarkeit von Calcium und Magnesium mit Natriumnitratlösung A.3.4. Austrag von Calcium, Phosphat und Eisen bei der sauren Konditionierung von beladenem Bayoxide® E 33 HC A.3.5. Reproduzierbarkeit des Phosphatdurchbruchs bei pH-Swing-Regenerierung mit Salpetersäure A.3.6. Zusammensetzung verschiedener Calciumphosphate A.4. Anhang Kapitel 6 A.4.1. Grenzwerte für Schwermetalle in mineralischen und Recyclingphosphordüngemitteln in Europa A.4.2. Messbedingungen für die Analysen mittels LC-MS/MS A.4.3. Thermische Zersetzung von amorphem Calciumphosphat A.4.4. Phosphorentfernung in der Pilotanlage in Bramsche A.4.5. Regenerierung eines beladenen Adsorbens aus der Pilotanlage A.4.6. Untersuchte organische Spurenstoffe bei der Gewinnung von Pilot-aCP A.5. Anhang Kapitel 7 A.5.1. Kostenabschätzung für das Verfahrenskonzept zur Phosphorentfernung auf KKA A.5.2. Preisentwicklung für Phosphate von 1999 bis 2019 auf dem Weltmarkt A.5.3. Einordnung des entwickelten Verfahrenskonzeptes nach dem BAFU-Leitfaden Danksagung Erklärung
Background: Recent policy is marked by a shift towards enabling people with dementia to remain at home and in their neighbourhoods, yet little is known about the wider perspective of neighbourhood as an everyday place of connection, practice and meaning in the lives of people with experience of dementia. Aims: The aim of this thesis is twofold. The first aim is to explore the neighbourhood as an everyday place for people with experiences of dementia. The second aim is to explore neighbourhood as a place for practice. Methods and Designs: Five studies are included in the thesis with both quantitative and qualitative designs. Study I had a cross-sectional exploratory and descriptive design. A total cohort of 17, 405 people with a dementia diagnosis were identified and matched with data about home care services and housing, and were then associated with socio-demographic factors in three county councils: Östergötland, Stockholm and Västerbotten. Study II had a phenomenological design; 14 community-dwelling people diagnosed with dementia in the County of Östergötland participated using walking interviews. Study III had an inductive and exploratory qualitative design including 14 community-dwelling people living alone with dementia in England, Scotland and Sweden involving multiple data collection methods. Study IV had an inductive and explorative qualitative design that included 22 people with the lived, personal and professional experiences of dementia and used semi-structured individual and group interviews. Study V had an inductive and explorative qualitative design where the perspectives of 18 participants (registered and specialist nurses) were included using shadowing as the main method for data collection. Findings: In study I, 72% of the cohort was living in ordinary housing and 28% in special housing of the total of 17, 405 people with a dementia diagnosis. Overall, 52% of 17, 405 people with dementia in three county councils (Östergötland, Stockholm and Västerbotten) were living alone. Study II revealed that walking in the neighbourhood was an integral part of their day-to-day activities that helped them to manage life with dementia. Connection to nature by being outdoors was a restorative practice for people living with dementia. Neighbourhood was often described as a social context, although some participants living alone revealed that their social contacts were mainly staff working in municipal home care. In study III, participants across all three field sites channelled their efforts to stay connected to the neighbourhood into creating new ways of maintaining social networks and relationships. By participating in several activities (provided in the United Kingdom by the third-sector and charitable groups, and in Sweden, by the municipalities), bonds of friendship were created. However, the impact of stigma surrounding dementia was highlighted by the participants, which caused experiences of involuntary solitude or loneliness. Despite the impact of stigma, participants took control over their lives by searching for new daily social connections in the neighbourhood and were by no means passive in the face of the challenges in everyday life. In study IV, the participants discussed how dementia was stigmatized in the community. People living with dementia were often not being respected as active citizens with their own resources in the community. Being socially active in a group or in public spaces were strategies to maintain a social role in the community. Participants with different experiences of dementia wanted the day care centres and teams to be more centrally involved in person-centred care and health-promoting improvements. Finally, in study V, participants struggled with the commonly held view of their role and their workplace within the health care system, interpreting it as being invisible, as if placed in a black box. The tasks and responsibilities of the participants were shifting to assistant nurses, neighbours and family members according to the socio-economic level of the municipality. Nonetheless, the participants were clearly part of the neighbourhood. The findings of this thesis have been integrated into a combined thematic analysis based on the five studies to reach an overall representation of people's experiences of neighbourhood as an everyday place and a place for practice in the context of dementia. Five main themes (and three sub-themes) emerged from the analysis: (1) walkable attachment to the lived neighbourhood; (2) daily activities promote health and well-being; (3) opportunities for social connections; (4) just treat us as active citizens; (5) neighbourhood: a place for practice. The analysis suggested the neighbourhood was not only described as a walkable, social and citizenship arena in the context of dementia; it was also a place where practice was ongoing around the clock (studies II, III, IV and V) because most of the people with dementia are living in ordinary housing (study I). Conclusion: The thesis presents a new foundation and knowledge to understand neighbourhood as a place for everyday life and practice by applying a new lens for understanding. The neighbourhood can be understood as a place linked by connections that people actively searched out, and where the meaning of place emerges via movement of the body through the world. It is also a site where practices support everyday life for people with dementia, especially for those living alone with dementia. This points to the need to re-think nursing practice, where "neighbourhood nursing" as a formal model with a lifeworld perspective has to be established in dialogue with citizens. ; Bakgrund: Den senaste samhällsutvecklingen och de politiska ambitionerna har utgått alltmer från att göra det möjligt för personer med demenssjukdom att bo kvar allt längre i sina hem och grannskap. Trots denna utveckling finns det lite kunskap utifrån det bredare perspektivet om grannskapet som en vardaglig plats för relationer, omvårdnad samt vilken mening det har för personer som har erfarenhet av demens. Syfte: Syftet med avhandlingen var för det första att undersöka grannskapet som en plats i vardagen för personer som har erfarenheter av demens, och för det andra, att undersöka grannskapet som en plats för omvårdnad. Design och metod: Avhandlingen inkluderar fem delstudier med både kvalitativ och kvantitativ design. Studie I hade en explorativ och beskrivande tvärsnittsdesign. Totalt ingick det 17 405 personer med en demensdiagnos som identifierades och samkördes med information av hemtjänstinsatser och boende. Denna informationen förenades sedan med de socio-demografiska faktorerna i de tre regionerna Östergötland, Stockholm och Västerbotten. Studie II hade en femenologisk design som inkluderade 14 personer som bodde i ett eget boende med en demensdiagnos i Östergötlands län och som deltog i ´promenad intervjuer´. Studie III hade en induktiv och beskrivande kvalitativ design vilket inkluderade 14 personer som bodde ensamma i ett eget boende med en demensdiagnos i England, Skottland och Sverige. De 14 personer som bodde i ett eget boende med en demensdiagnos i Studie III deltog i flera datainsamlingsmetoder. Studie IV hade en induktiv och beskrivande kvalitativ design som inkluderade 22 personer med levda, personliga och professionella erfarenheter av demens som deltog i semistrukturerade individuella och gruppintervjuer. Slutligen, Studie V hade också en induktiv och beskrivande kvalitativ design där 18 deltagare (legitimerade sjuksköterskor och specialistsjuksköterskor) inkluderades skuggning som är den huvudsakliga metoden för datainsamlingen. Resultat: I Studie I fann vi att 72 % av den totala befolkningen av 17 405 personer med en demensdiagnos bodde i ordinärt boende och 28 % i särskilt boende. Sammantaget bodde 52 % av de 17 405 personerna med demens i singelhushåll i de tre regionerna Östergötland, Stockholm och Västerbotten. Studie II påvisade att promenader i grannskapet var en betydelsefull del av deras dagliga aktiviteter som hjälpte personer med en demensdiagnos att hantera ett liv med demens. Att vara utomhus i naturen medförde att personer med demens knöt an till naturen och genom det återhämtade sig. Grannskapet beskrivs ofta som ett socialt sammanhang, även om vissa deltagare som bodde ensamma berättade att deras sociala kontakter främst var med personalen som arbetade i den kommunala hemsjukvården (och hemtjänsten). I studie III beskrev personer med demens i England, Skottland och Sverige hur de ansträngde sig för att hålla kvar kontakten med grannskapet men också hur de skapade nya sätt att upprätthålla och hitta nya sociala nätverk och kontakter. Dessa vänskapsband skapades genom att delta i olika aktiviteter (som tillhandahålls i England av tredje sektorn och välgörenhetsgrupper, och i Sverige, av kommunerna). Även effekterna av stigmatiseringen kring att leva med demens betonades av deltagarna, de beskrev detta som en orsak till ofrivillig ensamhet. Trots påverkan av stigmatiseringen tog personerna med demens, kontroll över sina liv, genom att finna nya dagliga sociala kontakter i grannskapet. Personer med demens är intressearde av att anta nya utmaningarna i vardagen. I studie IV diskuterade personerna med olika erfarenheter av demens hur demenssjukdomen som ett stigmatiserat tillstånd i samhället påverkade dem. De ansåg att deltagarna som lever med en demensdiagnos ofta inte respekterades som aktiva medborgare med sina egna resurser i samhället. Personerna med olika erfarenhet av demens framhöll också att vara socialt aktiv i en grupp eller i offentliga rum var strategier för att upprätthålla en social roll i samhället. Förutom betydelsen av det sociala livet påpekade personerna med olika erfarenheter av demens att de skulle önska att dagverksamheterna och demensteamen skulle utgå mer utifrån person-centrerad vård och hälsofrämjande förhållningssätt. Slutligen, i studie V observerades det hur legitimerade sjuksköterskor och specialistsjuksköterskor kämpade med den vanligt förekommande synen på deras profession och arbetsplatsen inom hälso-och sjukvården som gav sig uttryck som osynlig. Deras uppgifter och ansvar hade även förändrats och allt mer hade överlåtits till undersköterskor, grannar och familjemedlemmar och kommunernas socioekonomiska status hade betydelse. Legitimerade sjuksköterskor och specialistsjuksköterskorna var en självklar del av grannskapet. Resultaten av denna avhandling har integrerats i en sammansatt tematisk analys baserad på de fem studierna för att nå en övergripande representation av människors upplevelser av grannskapet som en plats för det dagliga livet och omvårdnad med utgångspunkt utifrån erfarenheter av demens. Analysen resulterade i fem huvudteman (och tre underteman): (1) anknytning till det existerade grannskapet via promenader (2) dagliga aktiviteter främjar hälsa och välbefinnande; (3) möjligheter för sociala kontakter; (4) behandla oss som aktiva medborgare; (5) grannskapet som en plats för omvårdnad. Grannskapet beskrivs inte bara som en framkomlig, social medborgarskapsarena i relation till demens, utan var även en plats där sjuksköterskepraxis pågick dygnet runt (studierna II, III, IV och V) eftersom de flesta personer som lever med demens bor i ordinärt boende (studie I). Konklusion: Avhandlingen presenterar ett nytt underlag och ny kunskap för att förstå grannskapet som en plats för dagligt liv och omvårdnad genom att använda ett nytt perspektiv för att få förståelse. Grannskapet kan förstås som en plats förenad genom förbindelser som människor aktivt söker efter och där betydelsen av grannskapet inträder genom kroppens rörelse ut mot världen. Det är också en plats där omvårdnad sker som i sin tur stödjer vardagslivet för personer med demens, särskilt för dem som lever ensamma med demens. Detta visar på behovet av att tänka om i praktiken vad det gäller omvårdnaden, där "omvårdnad i grannskapet" som en modell med ett livsvärldsperspektiv behövs i dialog med medborgarna. ; Pozadina: Nedavni trend demencije ogleda se u ovome da osobe koje žive sa demencijom ostanu u kući ili u susjedstvu, ali još uvijek nije poznato mnogo u široj perspektivi koju nude ta susjedstva kao svakodnevno mjesto povezivanja, medicinske njege, te samog značaja u životu onih koji žive sa demencijom. Ciljevi: Cilj je istražiti susjedstvo kao svakodnevno mjesto boravka za ljude koji žive od demencije, te kao drugo istražiti susjedstva kao mjesta gdje bi se pružala medicinska njega. Metode i dizajni: Ukupno pet studija uključeno je u rad sa kvantitativnim i kvalitativnim dizajnom. Studija I imala je istraživački i opisni dizajn. Populacija od 17. 405 ljudi sa dijagnozom demencije bila je identifikovana, te usklađena sa podacima o kućnoj njezi i mjestu prebivališta, a zatim povezana sa tri općine: Östergötland, Štokholm i Vasterboten. Studija II imala je fenomenološki dizajn gdje je 14 osoba koje žive sa demencijom u porodičnoj kuci učestovalo u Östergötlandu u intervju pri šetnji. Studija III imala je induktivni i istraživački kvalitativni dizajn koji je uključivao 14 ljudi iz porodičnog domaćinstva koji žive sami sa demencijom u Engleskoj, Škotskoj i Švedskoj, uključujući više metoda prikupljanja podataka. Studija IV imala je induktivni i istraživački kvalitativni dizajn koji je obuhvatio 22 osobe koje žive, ili imaju lično i profesionalno iskustvo sa demencijom, gdje su se koristili pojedinačni i grupni intervju. Studija V imala je induktivni i istraživački kvalitativni dizajn gdje je uljućeno ukupno 18 medicinskih sestara, a kao glavna metoda za prikupljanje podataka korištena je metoda praćenja i posmatranja. Završni rezultati: U studiji I, 72% od 17. 405 ljudi koji su imali demenciju živjeli su porodičnim kućama a 28% u starački domovima. Ukupno 52% od 17. 405 ljudi koji žive sa demencijom u tri općine su Östergötland, Štokholm i Vasterboten žive sami. Studija II otkrila je kako svakodnevna šetanja je sastavni dio njihovih aktivnosti koje su im pomogle u životu sa demencijom. Može se reći da je boravak na otvorenom, te povezivanje sa prirodom je vrlo praktično za ljude koji žive sa demencijom. Susjedstvo je često opisano kao socijalni kontekst, iako su neki učesnici u istraživanju koji žive sami otkrili kako je njihov jedini društveni kontakt bio sa uposlenicima kućne njege. U studiji III učesnici ispitivanja u Engleskoj, Škotskoj i Švedskoj su sve svoje napore da ostanu povezani sa susjedstvom kako bi stvorili nove načine koji bi pomogli stvaranje novih veza i odnosa. Učestvovanjem u nekoliko aktivnosti (koje su u Velikoj Britaniji omogućile dobrotvorne i slobodne organizacije, a u Švedskoj općine) stvorene su veze i prijateljstva. Međutim, utjecaj predrasuda povezanih s demencijom, što su i naglašavali sudionici, vodilo je kao iskustvu samoće i usamljenosti. Uprkos utjecaju predrasuda, učesnici su preuzeli kontrolunad svojim životima, te su tražili nove svakodnevne društvene veze u susjedstvu, ne pokazujući tako pasivnost prema svakodnevnim izazovima s kojima se susreću. U studiji IV učesnici su razgovarali o predrasudama o demenciji u zajednici. Ljudi koji žive sa demencijom često nisu uvaženi kao aktivni članovi koji mogu doprinijeti zajednici. Kako bi održali svoje uloge u zajednici vrlo je bitno da ostanu društveno aktivni. Učesnici sa različitim iskustvom demencije izrazili su želju da se centri za svakodnevnu njegu i timovi više baziraju kao unapređenju njege i zdravlja, kao i da se akcenat stavi na osobu za demencijom. Na kraju, u studiji V medicinske sestre su se borile sa općeprihvaćenim stavom o njima i njihovoj ulozi, te njihovom radnom mjestu u sistemu zdravstvene zaštite, opisujući to kao nevidljivo. Zadaci i odgovornosti medicinskih sestara prebacivali su se na pomoćne sestre, komšije i članove porodica prema društveno-ekonomskom nivou opštine. Unatoč tome, medicinske sestre su očito bile dio susjedstva. Iskustva, odnosno pronalasci u ovoj tezi integrisani su u kombinovanu analizu prema pet tematski obrađenih studija, kako bi se dostigao sveobuhvatan prikaz iskustava u susjedstvu kao svakodnevnom mjestu, te mjestu zdravstvene podrške u kontekstu demencije. Iz ove analize pojavilo se pet glavnih tema (kao i tri podteme): (1) povezanost sa susjedstvom; (2) svakodnevne aktivnosti promovišu zdravlje i dobrobit; (3) mogućnosti za socijalne veze; (4) tretiranje kao aktivne građane; (5) susjedstvo je mjesto za medicinske prakse neprekidno traju. Analize pokazuju kako se susjedstvo ne opisuje samo kao prohodno, socijalno i građansko polje u kontekstu demencije, već kao i mjesto gdje medicinske prakse neprekidno traju (studije II, III, IV i V), jer većina ljudi s demencijom žive u običnom domaćinstvu (studija I). Zaključak: Teza predstavlja nove temelje i znanja, kako bi se lakše razumio pojam susjedstva kao svakodnevnog mjesta za život, kao i njege kroz nove objektive razumijevanja. Susjedstvo bi se moglo shvatiti kao mjesto spojeno vezama koje ljudi aktivno potražuju gdje se značenje mjesta spaja sa kretanjem tijela kroz svijet. To je također mjesto gdje je svakodnevno obezbjeđena njega za ljude koji žive sa demencijom, posebno za one koji žive sami. Ovo ukazuje na potrebu da se preispita medicinska praksa, gdje se ''njega u susjedstvima'' kao formalni model sa životnom perspektivom treba uspostaviti u dijalogu sa građanima. ; Ytterligare forskningsfinansiärer: Swedish Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), National Institute for HealthResearch (NIHR), Norrköping Municipality Research and Development Fund (Norrköpings fond för forskning och utveckling), County Council of Östergötland, Linköping University from its strategic research fund for Health Care and Welfare.
Background: Recent policy is marked by a shift towards enabling people with dementia to remain at home and in their neighbourhoods, yet little is known about the wider perspective of neighbourhood as an everyday place of connection, practice and meaning in the lives of people with experience of dementia. Aims: The aim of this thesis is twofold. The first aim is to explore the neighbourhood as an everyday place for people with experiences of dementia. The second aim is to explore neighbourhood as a place for practice. Methods and Designs: Five studies are included in the thesis with both quantitative and qualitative designs. Study I had a cross-sectional exploratory and descriptive design. A total cohort of 17, 405 people with a dementia diagnosis were identified and matched with data about home care services and housing, and were then associated with socio-demographic factors in three county councils: Östergötland, Stockholm and Västerbotten. Study II had a phenomenological design; 14 community-dwelling people diagnosed with dementia in the County of Östergötland participated using walking interviews. Study III had an inductive and exploratory qualitative design including 14 community-dwelling people living alone with dementia in England, Scotland and Sweden involving multiple data collection methods. Study IV had an inductive and explorative qualitative design that included 22 people with the lived, personal and professional experiences of dementia and used semi-structured individual and group interviews. Study V had an inductive and explorative qualitative design where the perspectives of 18 participants (registered and specialist nurses) were included using shadowing as the main method for data collection. Findings: In study I, 72% of the cohort was living in ordinary housing and 28% in special housing of the total of 17, 405 people with a dementia diagnosis. Overall, 52% of 17, 405 people with dementia in three county councils (Östergötland, Stockholm and Västerbotten) were living alone. Study II revealed that walking in the neighbourhood was an integral part of their day-to-day activities that helped them to manage life with dementia. Connection to nature by being outdoors was a restorative practice for people living with dementia. Neighbourhood was often described as a social context, although some participants living alone revealed that their social contacts were mainly staff working in municipal home care. In study III, participants across all three field sites channelled their efforts to stay connected to the neighbourhood into creating new ways of maintaining social networks and relationships. By participating in several activities (provided in the United Kingdom by the third-sector and charitable groups, and in Sweden, by the municipalities), bonds of friendship were created. However, the impact of stigma surrounding dementia was highlighted by the participants, which caused experiences of involuntary solitude or loneliness. Despite the impact of stigma, participants took control over their lives by searching for new daily social connections in the neighbourhood and were by no means passive in the face of the challenges in everyday life. In study IV, the participants discussed how dementia was stigmatized in the community. People living with dementia were often not being respected as active citizens with their own resources in the community. Being socially active in a group or in public spaces were strategies to maintain a social role in the community. Participants with different experiences of dementia wanted the day care centres and teams to be more centrally involved in person-centred care and health-promoting improvements. Finally, in study V, participants struggled with the commonly held view of their role and their workplace within the health care system, interpreting it as being invisible, as if placed in a black box. The tasks and responsibilities of the participants were shifting to assistant nurses, neighbours and family members according to the socio-economic level of the municipality. Nonetheless, the participants were clearly part of the neighbourhood. The findings of this thesis have been integrated into a combined thematic analysis based on the five studies to reach an overall representation of people's experiences of neighbourhood as an everyday place and a place for practice in the context of dementia. Five main themes (and three sub-themes) emerged from the analysis: (1) walkable attachment to the lived neighbourhood; (2) daily activities promote health and well-being; (3) opportunities for social connections; (4) just treat us as active citizens; (5) neighbourhood: a place for practice. The analysis suggested the neighbourhood was not only described as a walkable, social and citizenship arena in the context of dementia; it was also a place where practice was ongoing around the clock (studies II, III, IV and V) because most of the people with dementia are living in ordinary housing (study I). Conclusion: The thesis presents a new foundation and knowledge to understand neighbourhood as a place for everyday life and practice by applying a new lens for understanding. The neighbourhood can be understood as a place linked by connections that people actively searched out, and where the meaning of place emerges via movement of the body through the world. It is also a site where practices support everyday life for people with dementia, especially for those living alone with dementia. This points to the need to re-think nursing practice, where "neighbourhood nursing" as a formal model with a lifeworld perspective has to be established in dialogue with citizens. ; Bakgrund: Den senaste samhällsutvecklingen och de politiska ambitionerna har utgått alltmer från att göra det möjligt för personer med demenssjukdom att bo kvar allt längre i sina hem och grannskap. Trots denna utveckling finns det lite kunskap utifrån det bredare perspektivet om grannskapet som en vardaglig plats för relationer, omvårdnad samt vilken mening det har för personer som har erfarenhet av demens. Syfte: Syftet med avhandlingen var för det första att undersöka grannskapet som en plats i vardagen för personer som har erfarenheter av demens, och för det andra, att undersöka grannskapet som en plats för omvårdnad. Design och metod: Avhandlingen inkluderar fem delstudier med både kvalitativ och kvantitativ design. Studie I hade en explorativ och beskrivande tvärsnittsdesign. Totalt ingick det 17 405 personer med en demensdiagnos som identifierades och samkördes med information av hemtjänstinsatser och boende. Denna informationen förenades sedan med de socio-demografiska faktorerna i de tre regionerna Östergötland, Stockholm och Västerbotten. Studie II hade en femenologisk design som inkluderade 14 personer som bodde i ett eget boende med en demensdiagnos i Östergötlands län och som deltog i ´promenad intervjuer´. Studie III hade en induktiv och beskrivande kvalitativ design vilket inkluderade 14 personer som bodde ensamma i ett eget boende med en demensdiagnos i England, Skottland och Sverige. De 14 personer som bodde i ett eget boende med en demensdiagnos i Studie III deltog i flera datainsamlingsmetoder. Studie IV hade en induktiv och beskrivande kvalitativ design som inkluderade 22 personer med levda, personliga och professionella erfarenheter av demens som deltog i semistrukturerade individuella och gruppintervjuer. Slutligen, Studie V hade också en induktiv och beskrivande kvalitativ design där 18 deltagare (legitimerade sjuksköterskor och specialistsjuksköterskor) inkluderades skuggning som är den huvudsakliga metoden för datainsamlingen. Resultat: I Studie I fann vi att 72 % av den totala befolkningen av 17 405 personer med en demensdiagnos bodde i ordinärt boende och 28 % i särskilt boende. Sammantaget bodde 52 % av de 17 405 personerna med demens i singelhushåll i de tre regionerna Östergötland, Stockholm och Västerbotten. Studie II påvisade att promenader i grannskapet var en betydelsefull del av deras dagliga aktiviteter som hjälpte personer med en demensdiagnos att hantera ett liv med demens. Att vara utomhus i naturen medförde att personer med demens knöt an till naturen och genom det återhämtade sig. Grannskapet beskrivs ofta som ett socialt sammanhang, även om vissa deltagare som bodde ensamma berättade att deras sociala kontakter främst var med personalen som arbetade i den kommunala hemsjukvården (och hemtjänsten). I studie III beskrev personer med demens i England, Skottland och Sverige hur de ansträngde sig för att hålla kvar kontakten med grannskapet men också hur de skapade nya sätt att upprätthålla och hitta nya sociala nätverk och kontakter. Dessa vänskapsband skapades genom att delta i olika aktiviteter (som tillhandahålls i England av tredje sektorn och välgörenhetsgrupper, och i Sverige, av kommunerna). Även effekterna av stigmatiseringen kring att leva med demens betonades av deltagarna, de beskrev detta som en orsak till ofrivillig ensamhet. Trots påverkan av stigmatiseringen tog personerna med demens, kontroll över sina liv, genom att finna nya dagliga sociala kontakter i grannskapet. Personer med demens är intressearde av att anta nya utmaningarna i vardagen. I studie IV diskuterade personerna med olika erfarenheter av demens hur demenssjukdomen som ett stigmatiserat tillstånd i samhället påverkade dem. De ansåg att deltagarna som lever med en demensdiagnos ofta inte respekterades som aktiva medborgare med sina egna resurser i samhället. Personerna med olika erfarenhet av demens framhöll också att vara socialt aktiv i en grupp eller i offentliga rum var strategier för att upprätthålla en social roll i samhället. Förutom betydelsen av det sociala livet påpekade personerna med olika erfarenheter av demens att de skulle önska att dagverksamheterna och demensteamen skulle utgå mer utifrån person-centrerad vård och hälsofrämjande förhållningssätt. Slutligen, i studie V observerades det hur legitimerade sjuksköterskor och specialistsjuksköterskor kämpade med den vanligt förekommande synen på deras profession och arbetsplatsen inom hälso-och sjukvården som gav sig uttryck som osynlig. Deras uppgifter och ansvar hade även förändrats och allt mer hade överlåtits till undersköterskor, grannar och familjemedlemmar och kommunernas socioekonomiska status hade betydelse. Legitimerade sjuksköterskor och specialistsjuksköterskorna var en självklar del av grannskapet. Resultaten av denna avhandling har integrerats i en sammansatt tematisk analys baserad på de fem studierna för att nå en övergripande representation av människors upplevelser av grannskapet som en plats för det dagliga livet och omvårdnad med utgångspunkt utifrån erfarenheter av demens. Analysen resulterade i fem huvudteman (och tre underteman): (1) anknytning till det existerade grannskapet via promenader (2) dagliga aktiviteter främjar hälsa och välbefinnande; (3) möjligheter för sociala kontakter; (4) behandla oss som aktiva medborgare; (5) grannskapet som en plats för omvårdnad. Grannskapet beskrivs inte bara som en framkomlig, social medborgarskapsarena i relation till demens, utan var även en plats där sjuksköterskepraxis pågick dygnet runt (studierna II, III, IV och V) eftersom de flesta personer som lever med demens bor i ordinärt boende (studie I). Konklusion: Avhandlingen presenterar ett nytt underlag och ny kunskap för att förstå grannskapet som en plats för dagligt liv och omvårdnad genom att använda ett nytt perspektiv för att få förståelse. Grannskapet kan förstås som en plats förenad genom förbindelser som människor aktivt söker efter och där betydelsen av grannskapet inträder genom kroppens rörelse ut mot världen. Det är också en plats där omvårdnad sker som i sin tur stödjer vardagslivet för personer med demens, särskilt för dem som lever ensamma med demens. Detta visar på behovet av att tänka om i praktiken vad det gäller omvårdnaden, där "omvårdnad i grannskapet" som en modell med ett livsvärldsperspektiv behövs i dialog med medborgarna. ; Pozadina: Nedavni trend demencije ogleda se u ovome da osobe koje žive sa demencijom ostanu u kući ili u susjedstvu, ali još uvijek nije poznato mnogo u široj perspektivi koju nude ta susjedstva kao svakodnevno mjesto povezivanja, medicinske njege, te samog značaja u životu onih koji žive sa demencijom. Ciljevi: Cilj je istražiti susjedstvo kao svakodnevno mjesto boravka za ljude koji žive od demencije, te kao drugo istražiti susjedstva kao mjesta gdje bi se pružala medicinska njega. Metode i dizajni: Ukupno pet studija uključeno je u rad sa kvantitativnim i kvalitativnim dizajnom. Studija I imala je istraživački i opisni dizajn. Populacija od 17. 405 ljudi sa dijagnozom demencije bila je identifikovana, te usklađena sa podacima o kućnoj njezi i mjestu prebivališta, a zatim povezana sa tri općine: Östergötland, Štokholm i Vasterboten. Studija II imala je fenomenološki dizajn gdje je 14 osoba koje žive sa demencijom u porodičnoj kuci učestovalo u Östergötlandu u intervju pri šetnji. Studija III imala je induktivni i istraživački kvalitativni dizajn koji je uključivao 14 ljudi iz porodičnog domaćinstva koji žive sami sa demencijom u Engleskoj, Škotskoj i Švedskoj, uključujući više metoda prikupljanja podataka. Studija IV imala je induktivni i istraživački kvalitativni dizajn koji je obuhvatio 22 osobe koje žive, ili imaju lično i profesionalno iskustvo sa demencijom, gdje su se koristili pojedinačni i grupni intervju. Studija V imala je induktivni i istraživački kvalitativni dizajn gdje je uljućeno ukupno 18 medicinskih sestara, a kao glavna metoda za prikupljanje podataka korištena je metoda praćenja i posmatranja. Završni rezultati: U studiji I, 72% od 17. 405 ljudi koji su imali demenciju živjeli su porodičnim kućama a 28% u starački domovima. Ukupno 52% od 17. 405 ljudi koji žive sa demencijom u tri općine su Östergötland, Štokholm i Vasterboten žive sami. Studija II otkrila je kako svakodnevna šetanja je sastavni dio njihovih aktivnosti koje su im pomogle u životu sa demencijom. Može se reći da je boravak na otvorenom, te povezivanje sa prirodom je vrlo praktično za ljude koji žive sa demencijom. Susjedstvo je često opisano kao socijalni kontekst, iako su neki učesnici u istraživanju koji žive sami otkrili kako je njihov jedini društveni kontakt bio sa uposlenicima kućne njege. U studiji III učesnici ispitivanja u Engleskoj, Škotskoj i Švedskoj su sve svoje napore da ostanu povezani sa susjedstvom kako bi stvorili nove načine koji bi pomogli stvaranje novih veza i odnosa. Učestvovanjem u nekoliko aktivnosti (koje su u Velikoj Britaniji omogućile dobrotvorne i slobodne organizacije, a u Švedskoj općine) stvorene su veze i prijateljstva. Međutim, utjecaj predrasuda povezanih s demencijom, što su i naglašavali sudionici, vodilo je kao iskustvu samoće i usamljenosti. Uprkos utjecaju predrasuda, učesnici su preuzeli kontrolunad svojim životima, te su tražili nove svakodnevne društvene veze u susjedstvu, ne pokazujući tako pasivnost prema svakodnevnim izazovima s kojima se susreću. U studiji IV učesnici su razgovarali o predrasudama o demenciji u zajednici. Ljudi koji žive sa demencijom često nisu uvaženi kao aktivni članovi koji mogu doprinijeti zajednici. Kako bi održali svoje uloge u zajednici vrlo je bitno da ostanu društveno aktivni. Učesnici sa različitim iskustvom demencije izrazili su želju da se centri za svakodnevnu njegu i timovi više baziraju kao unapređenju njege i zdravlja, kao i da se akcenat stavi na osobu za demencijom. Na kraju, u studiji V medicinske sestre su se borile sa općeprihvaćenim stavom o njima i njihovoj ulozi, te njihovom radnom mjestu u sistemu zdravstvene zaštite, opisujući to kao nevidljivo. Zadaci i odgovornosti medicinskih sestara prebacivali su se na pomoćne sestre, komšije i članove porodica prema društveno-ekonomskom nivou opštine. Unatoč tome, medicinske sestre su očito bile dio susjedstva. Iskustva, odnosno pronalasci u ovoj tezi integrisani su u kombinovanu analizu prema pet tematski obrađenih studija, kako bi se dostigao sveobuhvatan prikaz iskustava u susjedstvu kao svakodnevnom mjestu, te mjestu zdravstvene podrške u kontekstu demencije. Iz ove analize pojavilo se pet glavnih tema (kao i tri podteme): (1) povezanost sa susjedstvom; (2) svakodnevne aktivnosti promovišu zdravlje i dobrobit; (3) mogućnosti za socijalne veze; (4) tretiranje kao aktivne građane; (5) susjedstvo je mjesto za medicinske prakse neprekidno traju. Analize pokazuju kako se susjedstvo ne opisuje samo kao prohodno, socijalno i građansko polje u kontekstu demencije, već kao i mjesto gdje medicinske prakse neprekidno traju (studije II, III, IV i V), jer većina ljudi s demencijom žive u običnom domaćinstvu (studija I). Zaključak: Teza predstavlja nove temelje i znanja, kako bi se lakše razumio pojam susjedstva kao svakodnevnog mjesta za život, kao i njege kroz nove objektive razumijevanja. Susjedstvo bi se moglo shvatiti kao mjesto spojeno vezama koje ljudi aktivno potražuju gdje se značenje mjesta spaja sa kretanjem tijela kroz svijet. To je također mjesto gdje je svakodnevno obezbjeđena njega za ljude koji žive sa demencijom, posebno za one koji žive sami. Ovo ukazuje na potrebu da se preispita medicinska praksa, gdje se ''njega u susjedstvima'' kao formalni model sa životnom perspektivom treba uspostaviti u dijalogu sa građanima. ; Ytterligare forskningsfinansiärer: Swedish Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), National Institute for HealthResearch (NIHR), Norrköping Municipality Research and Development Fund (Norrköpings fond för forskning och utveckling), County Council of Östergötland, Linköping University from its strategic research fund for Health Care and Welfare.
Reality shows cast relatively diverse groups with the intention of seeing whether conflict or harmony will result. Success in reality competitions is often achieved through the development of alliances and strategic relationships and the process by which these unions form can be sociologically fascinating to watch. Yet, sociology, in method and theory, has rarely been applied to the analysis of reality television. This is not to say that reality television has not been examined academically. In fact, there is a growing body of research, primarily conducted by communication studies scholars, that takes this type of television seriously. Thus, there is a foundation for teaching the sociology of reality television and excellent resources for doing so.Author recommendsAndrejevic, Mark 2004. Reality TV: The Work of Being Watched. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.This book was one of the first monographs on reality television. Andrejevic looks at the significance of the 'digital era' and the idea of how genres like reality television encourage interactivity. He was able to interview cast members of reality programs and analyze their experiences, a body of data not available elsewhere. Also, Andrejevic discusses multiple shows including Survivor, The Real World, and Big Brother.Brenton, Sam and Reuben Cohen 2003. Shooting People: Adventures in Reality TV. London, UK: Verso.Although not a piece of scholarly research, this book would be useful in a course on reality television or new media as it raises questions regarding ethics in the genre and it is also very readable and engaging. Brenton and Cohen discuss underpublicized controversial episodes in reality television production and ask at what cost to society and participants are these shows made. They ponder the future of reality television and where and when lines will be drawn as to what is too invasive or private or inhumane to be broadcast.Dubrofsky, Rachel 2006. 'The Bachelor: Whiteness in the Harem.'Critical Studies in Media Communication 23: 39–56.Dubrofsky looks at depictions of race and gender on the reality dating show The Bachelor. She notes how shows like this privilege whiteness through casting and editing. The Bachelor occasionally makes use of racial and ethnic minorities as exotic others when it serves the show to contrast such contestants. This is a good example of how racial, ethnic, and gender stereotypes can be reinforced by media.Hill, Annette 2005. Reality TV: Audiences and Popular Factual Television. London, UK: Routledge.Hill is one of few researchers who has conducted detailed audience analysis. Using survey research and ethnographic methods, Hill looks at the ways viewers watch and interpret reality shows. She discusses motivations for watching, what appealed to viewers and what did not, and the degree to which viewers take what they see as real.Jones, Janet Megan 2003. 'Show Your Real Face: A Fan Study of the UK Big Brother Transmission (2000, 2001, 2002). Investigating the Boundaries between Notions of Consumers and Producers of Factual Television.'New Media & Society 5: 400–21.Janet Megan Jones conducted a three‐wave survey of 8,000 viewers of Big Brother UK in order to determine what audiences respond to on the program, particularly which characters and characteristics are most appealing. She argues that viewers enter into a 'personalized reality contract' with the show and the contestants in which they suspend their disbelief regarding the constructed nature of the show. Fans search for the truth or reality within the unreal environment; even though they know the show and its premise are contrived. This is one of the most comprehensive pieces of audience research and its interesting findings should generate class discussion.Misra, Joya 2000. 'Integrating The Real World into Introduction to Sociology: Making Sociological Concepts Real.'Teaching Sociology 28: 346–363.A guide to using clips from the reality program, The Real World, to teach sociology. The principles suggested in this article may be useful in stimulating use of clips from reality programs generally and specifically.Escoffrey, David S. 2006. How Real Is Reality TV? Essays on Representation and Truth. Jefferson, NC: McFarland & Co.Holmes, Su and Deborah Jermyn (eds) 2004. Understanding Reality Television. London, UK: Routledge.Murray, Susan and Laurie Ouellette (eds) 2004. Reality TV: Remaking Television Culture. New York, NY: New York University Press.These three edited volumes are excellent collections of articles about reality television. All deal with production, content, and consumption. Any would be suitable as a text for class as they all contain interesting chapters that cover themes like defining the genre, the reality television industry, political culture, and representations of race, ethnicity, gender, and sexuality.Online materialsTo my knowledge, there are no online resources specifically dealing with academic analysis of reality television. However, there are some Web sites that would be useful for exploration and incorporation in a course and in course projects. http://www.nielsen.com/ The Nielsen media group, who conduct the Nielsen ratings of television viewing, provides a limited amount of free information regarding viewing patterns on its Web site. There is some material regarding ratings and some reports that can be accessed here. Information about grants and internships and other resources for students are also available on this site. http://www.realitytvworld.com This Web site contains comprehensive listings and information about reality shows, past and present. If you are unfamiliar with a particular reality show or students are unfamiliar, this Web site could be consulted for background information. Links to news articles about reality shows and contestants are also listed here. http://www.televisionwithoutpity.com Television Without Pity provides very detailed recaps and discussion forums for selected television programs, including many reality shows (including America's Next Top Model, Survivor, Big Brother, The Biggest Loser, Project Runway, and Top Chef). If you are studying a show in depth or analyzing a particular show and miss an episode or want detailed summaries to use in class, this site is quite useful.Sample syllabus Course Outline and Selected Reading Assignments 1. Studying television from a sociological perspective Ang, Ien 1985. Watching Dallas: Soap Opera and the Melodramatic Imagination. New York, NY: Routledge.Gamson, Joshua 1998. Freaks Talk Back: Tabloid Talk Shows and Sexual Nonconformity. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.Grindstaff, Laura and Joseph Turow 2006. 'Video Cultures: Television Sociology in the "New TV" Age.'Annual Review of Sociology 32:103–25. 2. Foundations of reality television Baker, Sean 2003. 'From Dragnet to Survivor: Historical and Cultural Perspectives on Reality Television.' Pp. 57–72 in Survivor Lessons: Essays on Communication and Reality Television, edited by Matthew J. Smith and Andrew F. Wood. Jefferson, NC: McFarland & Co.Biressi, Anita and Heather Nunn 2005. Reality TV: Realism and Revelation. London, UK: Wallflower Press.Cavender, Gray and Mark Fishman 1998. 'Television Reality Crime Programs: Context and History.' Pp. 1–18 in Entertaining Crime: Television Reality Programs, edited by Mark Fishman and Gray Cavender. New York, NY: Aldine de Gruyter.Clissold, Bradley D. 2004. 'Candid Camera and the Origins of Reality TV: Contextualising a Historical Precedent.' Pp. 33–53 in Understanding Reality Television, edited by Su Holmes and Deborah Jermyn. London, UK: Routledge.Corner, John 2002. 'Performing the Real: Documentary Diversions.'Television & New Media 3: 255–269.Gillan, Jennifer 2004. 'From Ozzie Nelson to Ozzy Osbourne: the Genesis and Development of the Reality (Star) Sitcom.' Pp. 54–70 in Understanding Reality Television, edited by Su Holmes and Deborah Jermyn. London, UK: Routledge.McCarthy, Anna 2004. '"Stanley Milgram, Allen Funt, and Me": Postwar Social Science and the "First Wave" of Reality Television.' Pp. 19–39 in Reality TV: Remaking Television Culture, edited by Susan Murray and Laurie Ouellette. New York, UK: New York University Press. 3. Defining a genre Biressi, Anita and Heather Nunn 2005. Reality TV: Realism and Revelation. London, UK: Wallflower Press.Bignell, Jonathan 2005. Big Brother: Reality TV in the Twenty‐First Century. New York, NY: Palgrave.Fetveit, Arild 1999. 'Reality TV in the Digital Era: A Paradox in Visual Culture?'Media, Culture & Society 21: 787–804.Holmes, Su and Deborah Jermyn 2004b. 'Introduction: Understanding Reality TV.' Pp. 1–32 in Understanding Reality Television, edited by Su Holmes and Deborah Jermyn. London, UK: Routledge.Kilborn, Richard 1994. '"How Real Can You Get?" Recent Developments in "Reality" Television.'European Journal of Communication 9: 421–39.Murray, Susan 2004. '"I Think We Need a New Name For It": The Meeting of Documentary and Reality TV.' Pp. 40–56 in Reality TV: Remaking Television Culture, edited by Susan Murray and Laurie Ouellette. New York, NY: New York University Press. 4. Production of reality Andrejevic, Mark 2004. Reality TV: The Work of Being Watched. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.Brenton, Sam and Reuben Cohen 2003. Shooting People: Adventures in Reality TV. London, UK: Verso.Couldry, Nick 2004. 'Teaching Us to Fake It: The Ritualized Norms of Television's Reality Games.' Pp. 57–74 in Reality TV: Remaking Television Culture, edited by Susan Murray and Laurie Ouellette, 57–74. New York, NY: New York University Press. 5. Images, stereotypes, and issues of content a. Representation and stereotypes Andrejevic, Mark and Dean Colby 2006. Racism and Reality TV: The Case of MTV's Road Rules. Pp. 195–211 in How Real is Reality TV? Essays on Representation and Truth, edited by David S. Escoffrey. Jefferson, NC: McFarland & Co.Callais, Todd M. and Melissa Szozda 2006. 'Female Police Officers and Reality Television: Analyzing the Presentation of Police Work in Popular Culture.' Pp. 133–48 in How Real Is Reality TV? Essays on Representation and Truth, edited by David S. Escoffrey. Jefferson, NC: McFarland & Co.Dubrofsky, Rachel 2006. 'The Bachelor: Whiteness in the Harem.'Critical Studies in Media Communication 23: 39–56.Heinricy, Shana 2006. 'The Cutting Room: Gendered American Dreams on Plastic Surgery TV.' Pp. 149–64 in How Real is Reality TV? Essays on Representation and Truth, edited by David S. Escoffrey. Jefferson, NC: McFarland & Co.Johnston, Elizabeth 2006. 'How Women Really Are: Disturbing Parallels between Reality Television and 18th Century Fiction.' Pp. 115–32 in How Real Is Reality TV? Essays on Representation and Truth, edited by David S. Escoffrey. Jefferson, NC: McFarland & Co.Kraszewski, Jon 2004. 'Country Hicks and Urban Cliques: Mediating Race, Reality, and Liberalism on MTV's The Real World.' Pp. 179–196 in Reality TV: Remaking Television Culture, edited by Susan Murray and Laurie Ouellette. New York, NY: New York University Press.LeBesco, Kathleen 2004. 'Got to be Real: Mediating Gayness on Survivor.' Pp. 271–87 in Reality TV: Remaking Television Culture, edited by Susan Murray and Laurie Ouellette. New York, NY: New York University Press.Rapping, Elaine 2004. 'Aliens, Nomads, Mad Dogs, and Road Warriors: The Changing Face of Criminal Violence on TV.' Pp. 214–230 in Reality TV: Remaking Television Culture, edited by Susan Murray and Laurie Ouellette. New York, NY: New York University Press.Stephens, Rebecca L. 2004. 'Socially Soothing Stories? Gender, Race and Class in TLC's a Wedding Story and a Baby Story.' Pp. 191–210 in Understanding Reality Television, edited by Su Holmes and Deborah Jermyn. London, NY: Routledge. b. Other analyses of content Cavender, Gray 2004. 'In Search of Community on Reality TV: America's Most Wanted and Survivor.' Pp. 154–72 in Understanding Reality Television, edited by Su Holmes and Deborah Jermyn. London, UK: Routledge.Propp, Kathleen M. 2003. 'Metaphors of Survival: A Textual Analysis of the Decision‐Making Strategies of the Survivor Contestants.' Pp. 111–31 in Survivor Lessons: Essays on Communication and Reality Television, edited by Matthew J. Smith and Andrew F. Wood. Jefferson, NC: McFarland & Co.Wingenbach, Ed 2003. 'Survivor, Social Choice, and the Impediments to Political Rationality: Reality TV as Social Science Experiment.' Pp. 132–152 in Survivor Lessons: Essays on Communication and Reality Television, edited by. Matthew J. Smith and Andrew F. Wood. Jefferson, NC: McFarland & Co. 6. Audience response and analysis Crew, Richard E. 2006. 'Viewer Interpretations of Reality Television: How Real Is Survivor for Its Viewers?' Pp. 61–77 in How Real Is Reality TV? Essays on Representation and Truth, edited by David S. Escoffrey. Jefferson, NC: McFarland & Co.Hill, Annette 2005. Reality TV: Audiences and Popular Factual Television. London, UK: Routledge.Jones, Janet Megan 2003. 'Show Your Real Face: A Fan Study of the UK Big Brother Transmission (2000, 2001, 2002). Investigating the Boundaries between Notions of Consumers and Producers of Factual Television.'New Media & Society 5: 400–21.Ticknell, Estella and Parvati Raghuram 2004. 'Big Brother: Reconfiguring the "Active" Audience of cultural studies?' Pp. 252–69 in Understanding Reality Television, edited by Su Holmes and Deborah Jermyn. London, UK: Routledge.Wilson, Pamela 2004. 'Jamming Big Brother: Webcasting, Audience Intervention, and Narrative Activism.' Pp. 323–43 in Reality TV: Remaking Television Culture, edited by Susan Murray and Laurie Ouellette. New York, NY: New York University Press.Zurbriggen, Eileen L. and Elizabeth M. Morgan 2006. 'Who Wants to Marry a Millionaire? Reality Dating Television Programs, Attitudes Toward Sex, and Sexual Behaviors.'Sex Roles 54: 1–17. 7. The business of reality television Brenton, Sam and Reuben Cohen 2003. Shooting People: Adventures in Reality TV. London, UK: Verso.Madger, Ted. 2004. 'The End of TV 101: Reality Programs, Formats, and the New Business of Television.' Pp. 119–36 in Reality TV: Remaking Television Culture, edited by Susan Murray and Laurie Ouellette. New York, NY: New York University Press.Raphael, Chad 2004. 'The Political Origins of Reali‐TV.' Pp. 119–36 in Reality TV: Remaking Television Culture, edited by Susan Murray and Laurie Ouellette. New York, NY: New York University Press.Films and videosSurvivorOne of the earlier and more influential (in the USA) reality television series; some seasons are available in their entirety on DVD. Survivor is a show where 16 people live in a remote area with no modern conveniences. Every 3 days, participants compete in challenges and the outcome of these challenges determines which contestants are subject to being voted out of the game. At the end of the approximate 40 days, ousted players vote for who they believe should be the winner of the game. There are many in class analyses that can be done in conjunction with readings. Most reality shows would work in this manner (Big Brother, The Bachelor, The Amazing Race, Top Chef, etc.). Stereotyping, group dynamics, ethics, representations of reality are all themes that can be explored using episodes of Survivor. 1900 House (or any other PBS reality show). http://www.pbs.org/wnet/1900house/In this show, a family volunteered to live in a house that was set up to replicate the conditions of 1900. It is a good contrast to reality programs that air on network television, in terms of production values, editing, casting, etc. A professor might show clips from 1900 House and clips from Survivor and compare and contrast in a discussion of audience, entertainment, the reality of reality television, etc. The Reality of Reality TV (produced by Bravo, September 2003). http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0381797/This six episode miniseries featured an analysis of reality television production. It is likely to be difficult to find; however, if one is able to access it, it would be useful in to show in class. I mention it because there are no other comparable programs that I am aware of.Project ideasRepresentations of race, class, gender, and/or sexuality This assignment is intended to have students measure representations of race, gender, sexuality, and social class on reality shows. Students should watch a particular series throughout the semester or for several weeks. They should be given coding sheets (which can be designed in class) where they take note of representations of things like race, class, gender, sexuality, etc. For example, if they were assigned or chose to focus on representations of gender and sexuality, they might note the way men and women are dressed, emphasis on different body parts and body images, the amount of attention directed to appearance both by the contestants/participants and the editors, terms used to refer to women and men, activities that men and women are shown participating in, skills or tactics women and men are shown using to make alliances and/or win challenges. Students should write a paper where they describe these representations of gender and discuss whether or not they feel this is reflective of actual reality, with supporting evidence from academic articles on gender and sexuality. They should also discuss the implications of these images and whether or not such representations matter.Fan discussion of reality television This assignment is intended to expose fans to the ways in which viewers make meaning of and interact with reality shows. Direct students to a Web site for fans of reality television that allows nonmembers to browse or 'lurk' in forums (e.g. http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/cgi‐bin/dcboard.cgi; http://forum.realityfanforum.com/)Have the students review topics on message boards and several pages (10–12) of message board dialogue in order to determine the ways in which fans use message boards, the subjects they discuss, whether or not they accept the dominant reading offered by the shows, their awareness of editing and production, popular and unpopular contestants, etc.Students should write a paper in which they discuss the ways in which viewers make meaning of and interact with reality shows, noting specifically how technology can change the relationship between viewers and producers and television programs.
In: Raditlhalo , S I 2003 , ' 'Who am I?' : the construction of identity in twentieth-century South African autobiographical writings in English ' , Doctor of Philosophy .
De studie naar de aard en functie van autobiografische werken heeft een lange en gedistingeerde geschiedenis. Dit proefschrift brengt de geschiedenis van de autobiografie een stap verder door de autobiografische teksten in het Engels geschreven in Zuid Afrika in de twintigste eeuw te bestuderen. Dit grote en uitgebreide onderwerp wordt in twee delen behandeld: ten eerste door het verkennen van de theorie en de geschiedenis van de autobiografie en van Zuid-Afrikaanse identiteiten; en ten tweede door de autobiografische teksten op chronologische orde door de eeuw heen te onderzoeken, zowel de ontwikkeling van de Zuid-Afrikaanse identiteit als van het genre zelf voor het voetlicht brengende. Het standpunt dat hier ingenomen wordt is dat zelf -schrijven - auto (zelf) bio (leven) graphe (schrijven) - een belangrijke literair gebied is dat als geen andere vorm van menselijke zelfexpressie de verwevenheid van een zelf en taal weergeeft. Theoretische benaderingen van zelf -schrijven bestrijken het gehele scala aan denkwijzen, waarvan de belangrijksten de deconstructivisten, structuralisten, poststructuralisten, humanisten en sociologen zijn, welke allen afzonderlijk inzichten bieden in dit literaire genre. Vooral de vervaging van de academische grenzen heeft tot een hertaxatie van wat een dergelijke studie mogelijk maakt geleid. Intens (academisch) debat woedt rond de vraag of aspecten van de autobiografie niet noodzakelijkerwijs zichzelf moeten kunnen produceren. Autobiografische werken lijken het leven van de persona te bepalen; alles wat een auteur van een autobiografie doet lijkt gedreven te worden door de technische eisen van een zelfbeeld en daardoor in alle aspecten bepaald door het gekozen medium. Als gevolg daarvan worden zelfreferentie en haar functie in het retorisch systeem gezien als primaire beslissende factoren van het uiteindelijke product, namelijk het machtsevenwicht tussen de relatie van het zelf met taal, welke balans in zoverre uitslaat in het voordeel van taal dat het zelf dat afgeschilderd wordt in de tekst wordt vervangen door kennis van de conventies en tropen van de autobiografie. In dit geval is het alsof vaardig gebruik en misbruik van taal resulteert in de afwezigheid van transparantie, en zo vormt taal een eigen gevangenis met daarin het zelf als gevangene. In het begin van dit boek wordt de positie ingenomen dat er een zelfbewustzijn is om gedachten te realiseren; een zelfbewustzijn gevormd door een cultuur die haar bloei en uiting vindt middels taal. Hierdoor kan het zelf niet slechts neergezet worden in taal als een vergaarbak en om dezelfde reden is het een misvatting van literaire theoretici te geloven dat het zelf immer gezien moet worden als gefragmenteerd, ontkoppeld en instabiel. Hoewel zo'n zelf zou kunnen bestaan is het niet verantwoord om aan te nemen dat de gehele mensheid gedecentreerd is. Voor weer andere theoretici is het vanzelfsprekend dat een autobiografie onderworpen wordt aan een nauwgezette dissectie om haar neer te halen, om zo haar tekortkomingen te vinden en het werk te falsificeren. Vandaar dat het belangrijk is voor zulke theoretici om de refererende kracht van taal te ontkennen, zodat de ontkenning van de scheppende autoriteit van de auteur leidt tot de ontkenning van betekenis zelf. Vanuit een humanistisch perspectief zou dit betekenen dat juist de misdaden tegen de mens, zoals apartheid en de Holocaust, met aplomb ontkend kunnen worden, een situatie die in praktijk geen steek houdt, in het bijzonder voor de meeste autobiografische werken uit Zuid Afrika. Een dergelijke situatie zou betekenen dat de kracht van het autobiografische zelf en de auteur weggevaagd worden. Humanistische critici kijken liever naar het leven zoals dat geleefd wordt binnen een bepaald milieu en socio-historische context dan naar 'theoretische onvolkomenheden'. Humanistische theoretici zijn van mening dat door de instabiliteit van sociale processen autobiografische geschriften blijk geven van, en een bewuste poging zijn tot, de verkenning van de dimensies van het zelf binnen de maatschappij en een bepaalde tijdsgeest. Binnen deze verkenning komen aspecten van identiteit noodzakelijkerwijs naar voren. Deze studie analyseert identiteiten als een integraal onderdeel van de autobiografie. Het centrale thema is een onderzoek naar de vorm en functie van de autobiografie in de context van een obsessieve poging van voorgaande Zuid-Afrikaanse regeringen om de identiteiten van mensen uit te wissen en andere zwak onderbouwde, 'ideale' identiteiten. De theoretische benadering die in dit boek wordt gevolgd aangaande de constructie van identiteiten is er een die door Stuart Hall uitgedragen is binnen postkoloniale studies, en die een duidelijk inzicht geeft in de verschillen tussen 'wat we zijn' en 'wat we geworden zijn'. Omdat de geschiedenis in dit geval haar sporen heeft nagelaten op onze subjectiviteit demonstreert Hall dat identiteiten zowel over 'worden' als over 'zijn' gaan, en geeft hij een inzicht in de samenstelling van identiteiten zoals ze voorkomen in zowel het verleden als in de toekomst en dientengevolge constant kunnen veranderen. Een constant samenspel van geschiedenis, macht en cultuur weerklinkt in hoe identiteiten constant worden herschapen. Deze visie ligt ten grondslag aan de interpretatie van de autobiografische zelven in dit boek. Hoofdstuk 1 verkent het concept van identiteit nauwgezet door middel van een analyse van de constructie van het 'universele onderwerp' en hoe dit gezien werd als een maatstaf voor het begrip van het ontwikkelingsproces tot individu. In het bijzonder wordt de preoccupatie van Europa met de postmiddeleeuwse periode besproken, tezamen met de 'onttotalisering' van de relatie tussen het individu en God tijdens de Verlichting. René Descartes' bijdrage is ook meegenomen in het idee van formalisering van subjectiviteit. Gekeken wordt naar hoe dit een probleem werd laat in de 20ste eeuw met de decentralisatie van een dergelijke veranderende universaliteit. Er wordt aangetoond dat de vijf breekpunten in de menselijke gedachtegang besproken door Stuart Hall – het marxistisch gedachtegoed, de Freudiaanse ontdekkingen, het werk van de linguïst Ferdinand de Saussure, de filosofische imperatieven van Michel Foucault en de impact van het feminisme - het eerdere idee van een alwetende, compleet grijpbare, universele zelf in twijfel trekt. Verderop in dit hoofdstuk wordt dit begrip van subjectiviteit toegepast op Zuid Afrika in het bijzonder en worden de krachten geanalyseerd die deze staat hebben doen ontstaan. Aspecten van vroeg kolonialisme en wat dit voor invloed had op de lokale bevolking worden behandeld, te beginnen met de Nederlandse nederzetting op de Kaap. De kolonisten aldaar drongen een bepaalde identiteit op aan haar bewoners door processen van acculturatie en door de onderwerping van het Afrikaanse volk. Dit hoofdstuk focust vooral op de schepping van de Unie van Zuid Afrika in 1910 en wat dit betekende voor aspecten van de constructie van identiteit. Na het Zuid-Afrikaanse milieu binnen deze context geplaatst te hebben en de universaliteit van het onderwerp in ogenschouw genomen te hebben, hertaxeert hoofdstuk 2 de oorsprong en verspreiding van biografieën, zoals die in grote mate beïnvloed is door handel en de komst van de drukpers. Het poogt aan te tonen hoe taalverschuivingen en literaire conventies in Zuid Afrika op een later tijdstip van invloed zijn geweest dan in andere delen van de wereld. Juist zulke taalverschuivingen brengen de ontwikkeling van (zwarte) autobiografische werken in kaart, in dit geval in een poging de ingrijpende socius van het kolonialisme en zijn stiefkind, apartheid, te verlichten of te verzwaren. De autobiografische geschriften, zoals die geschreven door Afro-Amerikanen, grepen lezers aan doordat zij hen tot een innerlijke reflectie op hun eigen levens aanzetten. Op deze manier beïnvloedde de literatuur haar lezers om een nieuwe manier te vinden om hun Afrikaanse belevingswereld en ervaringen onder woorden te brengen, en om hun eigen identiteit te zoeken binnen de marginale ruimte tussen autonomie en de koloniserende structuur. Teneinde een dusdanige verwoording tot stand te brengen werd 'levensschrijven' als een toegankelijk genre beschouwd dat de 'leemten' opvulde door alledaagse praktijk. Literatuur wordt in dit geval bepaald door de interactie tussen Afrikaanse culturele tradities en de socio-historische omgeving welke een positief bewustzijn introduceert dat zich wil uiten in schrift. Zodra duidelijk wordt dat dit positieve bewustzijn niet voldoende gerepresenteerd wordt in een koloniale context, zal gezocht worden naar een alternatieve vertelling, niet alleen in een poging een culturele genealogie op te stellen, maar ook ter afbakening van een gebied waarbinnen de schrijver zich kan identificeren. Toen dit bewustzijn ontstond, werden autobiografische werken geschikt bevonden deze rol te vervullen door op een zinvollere manier een nieuwe(re) kijk op de wereld te bieden. Hierop voortbordurend beschouwt hoofdstuk 3 de prekoloniale concepties van het zelf en de ontwikkeling tot individu. Dit om ieder denkbeeld dat Afrikaanse gemeenschappen niet over een virulente zelfconceptualisatie beschikken te ontkrachten. Het boek ontsluiert aspecten van Afrikaanse zelfconceptualisatie die verschillen van Westerse versies op ontologische wijze. Door middel van een verkenning van de werken van de etnografen Hogt Alverson en Daniel Kunene wordt uiteengezet dat het zelf in een Afrikaanse context wordt beschouwd als inherent in zowel de namen gegeven aan elke pasgeborene en de sterk bepalende rol van lofdichten in het creëren van dat zelf als een wezen. Lofpoëzie verwordt daardoor tot het (auto)biografisch archief van het zelf; een archief dat zich uitstrekt tot de clan en de familie. Door deze uitgestrektheid wordt het zelf een 'zelf onder anderen'. De studie laat zien hoe het bijna onmogelijk is binnen Afrikaanse gemeenschappen als identiteit geen externe of groepsreferenties te hebben. In deze zin verwordt het Afrikaanse spreekwoord: motho ke motho ka betho (een persoon is een persoon door anderen) tot een wereldvisie van waaruit Afrikanen een eindeloos proces van dialogisme aangaan. Op welke manier deze blik op de wereld vervolgens vertaald wordt naar de modernistische vorm van autobiografieën wordt gedemonstreerd aan de hand van een analyse van autobiografische werken die pogen de Afrikaanse orale vormen nauw te verbinden met de Westerse interpretatie van het zelf. Het hoofdstuk neemt de oorsprong van politieke identiteiten in Zuid Afrika - voortvloeiend uit hoofdstuk 2 - in ogenschouw en bundelt dit besef van etnische, politieke en culturele identiteiten (samen) in de term 'Zuid-Afrikaans'. In het bijzonder rijst de vraag: wie is een Zuid-Afrikaan en hoe definiëren we dan de autobiografische projecten uit dit deel van Afrika als ontegenzeggelijk 'Zuid-Afrikaans'? Hieruit vloeien de vervalsingen en de resulterende weerstand van identiteiten in Zuid-Afrikaanse autobiografieën voort, die grondig onderzocht worden in de hoofdstukken 4 tot 6. In deze teksten is het proces van zelf -schrijven en het patroon van zelfbewustzijn doorweven met intergerelateerde ervaringen, die een scala aan functies laat zien, zoals zelfverklaring, zelfontdekking, zelfverduidelijking, zelfformatie, zelfpresentatie en zelfverantwoording. Hoofdstuk 4 introduceert teksten die representatief zijn voor het vroege tijdperk van Zuid-Afrikaanse autobiografieën. Wat deze teksten bindt is het tijdvak waarin ze geschreven zijn en zodoende wat voor inzicht ze geven in zelfbegrip en zelfbewustzijn. Als we ook maar enig inzicht in Zuid-Afrikaanse autobiografieën en de daarin geconstrueerde identiteiten willen krijgen, zullen we moeten omgaan met de constructie van zulke identiteiten binnen het raamwerk van racisme. Hier botsen verschillende huidskleuren noodzakelijkerwijs en speelt de verwerking van deze botsing door het zelf een rol in zelfontdekking, zelfformatie en zelfjustificatie. De kritisch behandelde teksten in Hoofdstuk 4 laten de verschillende stijlen zien die voortkomen uit de manier waarop zelfreflectie wordt weergegeven door verhandelingen die geen 'vrij-drijvende' vertelling toestaan, op zich gezien als onmogelijk. De invloed van externe sociale, politieke en historische krachten op de afgeschilderde zelven maakt dat structurele verschillen onderscheiden kunnen worden. Derhalve onderzoekt het hoofdstuk het gevoel van tweeslachtigheid vertolkt door Wiliam Plomer en Roy Cambell, en, in tegenstelling hiermee, het diepgewortelde gevoel van vervreemding en zinloosheid vertolkt door Peter Abrahams, Es'kia Mphahlele en Bloke Modisane. Terwijl de eersten hun Zuid-Afrikaans-zijn als gegeven beschouwen en de anderen ernaar smachten, wordt het duidelijk dat zelfs voor diegenen die de staatsversie van Zuid-Afrikaansheid meegekregen hebben, een mate van ambiguïteit en zelfjustificatie mogelijk is. Gepositioneerd tussen deze twee tegenpolen ligt de zelf zoals voorgesteld en geleefd door Trevor Huddleston die gezien wordt als een ecclesiast, en daardoor bij machte is door het moeras van een vervalste en gevoedde identiteit te prikken. Huddleston laat met zijn autobiografische zelf zien dat eschatologische argumenten en gebruiken slechts voort blijven bestaan door machtsmisbruik. Deze teksten, geschreven tijdens de periode toen naleving van de wet de norm was, zetten in ieder geval zelven neer die worstelen met het begin van een staat van on-rede. In contrast hiermee openbaren latere teksten een verbeten verzet tegen een periode toen on-rede over de manier waarop levens geconceptualiseerd en geleefd konden worden niet aan de orde was. Hoofdstuk 5 verkent vervolgens de soorten van zelven die in het bijzonder vertolkt en gevoed werden tijdens de 'donkere dagen' uit de Zuid-Afrikaanse geschiedenis, sinds de jaren '60. Beginnend met de autobiografie van Helen Joseph wordt duidelijk dat het Zuid-Afrikaanse verzet tegen apartheid een geheel nieuwe betekenis kreeg vanwege de Freedom Charter, die het Zuid Afrika beschreef waarin mensen zouden willen wonen. Juist deze nieuwe betekenis van wat het is om tegen de opgelegde identiteiten in te gaan en te streven naar ideale Zuid-Afrikaanse identiteit, zoals neergelegd in de Freedom Charter, wordt in deze teksten naar voren gebracht. Hier worden de verschrikkelijke ervaringen van opsluiting gerelateerd aan het recht op een eigen identiteit waarvoor deze mensen streden. Van de 'vluchteling tegen heug en meug' Frank Chikane tot de gevangeniservaringen van Indres Naidoo, Simon Farisani en Caesarina Makhoere ontsluiert dit boek een grotendeels onbekend en voorheen verborgen geschiedenis van hoe ver de Zuid-Afrikaanse staat bereid was te gaan om haar tegenstanders te vernietigen. Ondanks de moeilijkheden die de autobiografische zelven ondervonden komt toch een onwrikbaar, schier bovenmenselijk geloof in de onvervreembaarheid van hun menselijke waardigheid, en daarmee identiteit, naar boven. De autobiografische zelven laten zien dat het overwinnen van de angst voor de blanke man, een bijkomende factor in het reguleren van het leven in het toenmalige Zuid Afrika, een belangrijke rol speelt in het verwoorden van een bevrijdende geest van verzet. Binnen het autobiografisch schrijven wordt redemptief lijden zo een bindend thema in deze periode, waarin het proces van de diepgewortelde identificatie met de weg naar bevrijding opkomt. Hoofdstuk 6 gaat over de Zuid-Afrikanen die gedurende het laatste deel van de twintigste eeuw fysieke ballingschap in Afrika en daarbuiten kozen als het middel om het lichaam en de ziel bij elkaar te houden. Het leven als balling wordt niet als probleemloos gepresenteerd: in feite zijn zulke problemen spiritueel in de zin dat gangbare referentiepunten dan weggevallen zijn. Het achterliggende idee van de bestudeerde teksten wordt ontsluierd door te laten zien hoe een land mensen zo beïnvloedt dat het onderdeel wordt van de zelfconceptualisatie van mensen. Aan de hand van Bessie Head en Es'kia Mphahlele tracht dit boek de ongrijpbaarheden van de ballingschap te illustreren, zelfs als dit diepgewortelde verlangen tot de behoefte van een toevluchtsoord leidt. Het is deze behoefte die Mphahlele in het bijzonder beschrijft: de schrijfster die, tegen alle verwachtingen in, naar Zuid Afrika terugkeert na een indrukwekkende academische carriere in Europa en de Verenigde Staten. Hier laat het autobiografische zelf het proces van heling van het gebroken verleden om het heden te kunnen begrijpen zien, net als Head haar eigen gebroken zelf herstelt in de relatieve veiligheid van Botswana. Contrasterend met deze twee teksten is de autobiografie van F.W. de Klerk. Met zijn zelfrechtvaardigende en bevooroordeelde toon voorziet het de studie van het noodzakelijke brandpunt, waardoor we de obstinate vasthoudendheid aan principes die de constructie van Zuid-Afrikaanse identiteiten zo'n uiterst slepend proces maakten, kunnen zien. Deze tekst presenteert de 'struggle' als een wedloop tussen de 'roots' en de routes waarmee de identiteiten verwezenlijkt, begrepen en onderhouden worden. In dit geval wordt identiteit als een hinderpaal ervaren omdat het zelf slechts gerealiseerd wordt door talige representaties van cultuur en geschiedenis. Het afsluitende hoofdstuk verkent de implicaties van geconstrueerde identiteiten in het Zuid Afrika van na 1996, het jaar waarin Zuid Afrika voor het eerst een representatieve en holistische grondwet aanvaarde. Hopelijk laat dit boek zien hoe marginalisatie als gevolg van een broze identiteit te voorkomen is. In een ethnolinguistische zin hebben Zuid-Afrikanen zich het recht verworven de identiteit te kiezen die het meeste recht doet aan hun belangen, boven een overkoepelende nationale identiteit. Uit de conclusie volgt dat een ware Zuid-Afrikaanse identiteit slechts dan zal verrijzen als dit aangrijpende erfgoed van het land door allen die er in leven geaccepteerd wordt. Niet alle aspecten van dit erfgoed zijn vrij van de pijnlijke herinneringen aan het verleden, maar, zoals president Thabo Mbeki's toespraak bij de aanvaarding van de nieuwe Zuid-Afrikaanse grondwet op 8 mei 1996 laat zien, kan er geen sprake zijn van een gemeenschappelijke Zuid-Afrikaanse identiteit zolang niet haar verleden, met al zijn tekortkomingen, de trotse bagage wordt van elke Zuid-Afrikaan. Identiteiten zijn complex en worden gevormd door een geschiedenis van veranderingen door economische, politieke, en culturele krachten. Zoals Mbeki hopelijk laat zien is het noodzakelijk ons hiervan bewust te zijn en de positieve energie die hierdoor vrij komt te kanaliseren in positieve en emanciperende richtingen.
