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This paper contrasts election forecasting models that include macro-economic and financial market variables with forecasts by Fair and the Iowa Electronic Market (IEM), as well estimates made by widely recognized pollsters. The Financial Market Model proposed here incorporates the impact of election year stock market changes, including information about the recent financial crisis. However, the Financial Market Model grossly overestimates the challenger's vote share. The IEM forecast of 53.0 percent, the Fair forecast of 51.9 percent, and the Macro-Economic Market model forecast of 51.5 percent were close to the actual vote share of 53.2 percent for the Democratic nominee, but the Financial Market forecast of 59.4 in this paper would have made the president-elect extremely happy.

This paper contrasts election forecasting models that include macro-economic & financial market variables with forecasts by Fair & the Iowa Electronic Market (IEM), as well estimates made by widely recognized pollsters. The Financial Market Model proposed here incorporates the impact of election year stock market changes, including information about the recent financial crisis. However, the Financial Market Model grossly overestimates the challenger's vote share. The IEM forecast of 53.0%, the Fair forecast of 51.9%, & the Macro-Economic Market model forecast of 51.5% were close to the actual vote share of 53.2% for the Democratic nominee, but the Financial Market forecast 59.4% in this paper would have made the president-elect extremely happy. Adapted from the source document.

Explores the "missing state" in the UK & suggests methods for reconstructing statehood. The reasoning behind the UK's contemporary statelessness is provided, with observations about state phenomenology. Due to the condition of current public management & public officials' realization of the necessity for creating commonalities, suggestions to shape public opinion & the internal identity of the state are presented. L. Collins Leigh