Suchergebnisse

The 1990s have witnessed several financial crises, of which the East Asia and Mexico tequila crises are perhaps the most well-known. What impact have these crises had on labor markets, household incomes, and poverty? Total employment fell by much less than production declines and even increased in some cases. However, these aggregates mask considerable churning in employment across sectors, employment status, and location. Economies that experienced the sharpest currency depreciations suffered the deepest cuts in real wages, though deeper cuts in real wages relative to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) were associated with smaller rises in unemployment. To some extent, families smoothed their incomes through increased labor force participation and private transfers, though the limited evidence available suggests that wealthier families were better able to smooth consumption. The initial impact of the crises was on the urban corporate sector, but rural households were affected as well and in some instances suffered deeper losses than did urban families. School enrollment declined, especially among poorer families, as did use of health facilities, but the impact on children's nutrition levels appears to vary. Crises have typically proved short-lived, but whether households plunged into poverty during a crisis is able to recover as the economy does remain an open question.

The "Colombian Peace Agrement's", signed by the National Government and the farc on November the twenty-fourth 2016, acknowledges that the unequalities in land distribution, ownership, and uses as structural cause of conflict in Colombia. For this reason, the objective of the point titled "Toward a New Colombian Countryside: Comprehensive Rural Reform" is to lay the foundations for the transformation of Colombian rural reality by envisioning policies to promote access to land, incentives for small farmers and communitarian producers, and mechanisms to guarantee the effective enjoyment of social, economic, and cultural rights by rural communities. Nevertheless, there is a long way to go before the Comprehensive Rural Reform actually generates social, economic, and institutional changes that allow for the integration of rural communities and the creation of conditions for the social wellbeing of the rural population. This task entails normative and institutional adjustments at State level, as well as changes in the practices of all actors responsible for making them a reality. The article carries out a documentary revision of research carried out on the concepts of rural development with a territorial approach and new rurality, and analyzes the main aspects of point one of the Agreement, the draft bills and decrees deriving from it, the situation of the agricultural sector institutions in charge of their implementation, and the power correlations among the parties, in order to provide an assessment after a year of implementation. Finally, the paper comes to a conclusion by discussing the legal and political difficulties observed. All of these elements make it possible to say that the first stage of implementation of the Comprehensive Rural Reform has moved forward with great difficulties, encountering institutional resistance and normative obstacles. Nevertheless, this is just the beginning. ; El Acuerdo Final para la Terminación del Conflicto Armado y la Construcción de una Paz Estable y Duradera, suscrito entre el Gobierno nacional y las farc el 24 de noviembre del 2016, reconoce como causa estructural del conflicto en Colombia la inequitativa distribución, tenencia y uso de la tierra. Por esto el punto titulado "Hacia un nuevo campo colombiano: Reforma Rural Integral" pretende sentar las bases para la transformación de la realidad rural colombiana al contemplar políticas de promoción del acceso a la tierra, incentivos a la producción campesina y comunitaria, y el acceso al goce efectivo de los derechos sociales, económicos y culturales de las comunidades rurales. No obstante, existe un largo camino para que la Reforma Rural Integral genere cambios sociales, económicos e institucionales que permitan la integración de las zonas rurales y la creación de condiciones para el bienestar social de la población rural. Llevarlo a cabo implica ajustes normativos e institucionales en el Estado, pero también, cambios en las prácticas de todos los actores encargados de hacerlos realidad. El presente artículo emplea como técnicas la revisión documental de investigaciones realizadas en torno a los conceptos de desarrollo rural con enfoque territorial y nueva ruralidad, así como el análisis de los principales aspectos del punto uno del Acuerdo, los proyectos de ley y decretos que se derivan de este, el estado de las instituciones del sector agrario y de desarrollo rural encargado de su implementación y las correlaciones de fuerza entre las partes, para luego presentar un balance después de un año de implementación. Por último, se consideran las dificultades observadas en el proceso en términos jurídicos y políticos de forma tal que se pueda dar paso a las conclusiones. Con estos elementos, se puede advertir que la reforma rural integral se ha venido implementando en esta primera etapa con mucha dificultad, en medio de resistencias institucionales y obstáculos normativos, sin embargo, es un proceso que apenas comienza. ; O "Acordo Final para o Término do Conflito Armado e a Construção de uma Paz Estável e Duradoura", firmado entre o Governo nacional e as Forças Armadas Revolucionárias da Colômbia (farc), no dia 24 de novembro de 2016, reconhece como causa estrutural do conflito na Colômbia a desigual distribuição, posse e uso da terra. Por isso, o ponto intitulado "Rumo a um novo campo colombiano: Reforma Rural Integral" pretendeu estabelecer as bases para a transformação da realidade rural colombiana ao abranger políticas de promoção do acesso à terra, incentivos à produção rural e comunitária, e acesso ao gozo efetivo dos direitos sociais, econômicos e culturais das comunidades camponesas. Contudo, há um longo caminho para que o texto da Reforma Rural Integral gere mudanças sociais, econômicas e institucionais que permitam a integração das áreas rurais e a criação de condições para o bem-estar social da população rural. Implantá-lo implica ajustes normativos e institucionais no Estado, mas também mudanças nas práticas de todos os atores encarregados de torná-las realidade. Este artigo utilizou técnicas como a revisão documental de pesquisas realizadas sobre os conceitos de desenvolvimento rural com enfoque territorial e nova ruralidade, bem como a análise dos principais aspectos primeiro ponto do ponto um do "Acordo", os projetos de lei e decretos derivados deste, o estado das instituições do setor agrário e de desenvolvimento rural encarregado por implantá-lo e as correlações de força entre as partes, para, em seguida, apresentar um balanço de um ano de implementação. Por último, consideram-se as dificuldades observadas no processo em termos jurídicos e políticos de tal forma para que se possa chegar às conclusões. Com esses elementos, pode-se advertir que a Reforma Rural Integral vem sendo implantada nesta primeira etapa com muita dificuldade, em meio de resistências institucionais e obstáculos normativos; contudo, é um processo que acaba de começar.

Feminist economy opens a window to reflection, research and political action regarding the most remarkable axes of feminist critique on mainstream economy. In this sense, the critique covers a variety of dimensions and levels that are interrelated and go from macro and structural aspects of the global system to the effects on women's and men's living conditions, as well as other crises such as that happening in care, the environment or in democracy.An interesting focal point is highlighting, from the gender perspective, the interweaving of unequal power relationships and its influence on employment markets, care and the distribution of the time men and women use for production and reproduction. Feminist conclusions on economic crisis cycles in general, and on adjustment policies developed on the grounds of the 'great crisis' starting in 2007/2008, respond to this line of work.The transformational perspective is implicit in all dimensions of the feminist critique, albeit explicit among certain approaches on a change of the society model. The target of life sustainability as a priority of public policies emerges along with other alter-globalist approaches with regard to questioning patriarchal relationships.The much needed dialogue between the alternatives and the approaches given by feminist economy pivots on a variety of axes, among which there is persistence or thinning of sexual division of work is of central importance. The direction of public policies and the practice of institutionalising the gender equality approach are regarded, from the view of feminist critique, as useful tools for a process of change of the imposed gender social order.This first issue of the ATLÁNTICAS journal includes a case study on Feminist Economy that shows, as a whole, an account of the situation and of the most relevant points of view. ; La economía feminista representa una ventana abierta a la reflexión, investigación y acción política respecto a los ejes de crítica feminista más relevantes sobre la economía dominante. En este sentido, la crítica abarca diferentes dimensiones y niveles que se interrelacionan entre sí, desde aspectos macro y estructurales del sistema global, a los efectos sobre las condiciones de vida de mujeres y hombres y también respecto a otras crisis, como la de cuidados, la ecológica o la democrática.Un importante foco de interés radica en hacer emerger desde la perspectiva de género, el entramado de las relaciones de poder desigual y su influencia en los mercados de trabajo, en los cuidados y en el reparto de tiempos que mujeres y hombres destinan a la producción y reproducción social. A esta línea de trabajo responden las lecturas feministas respecto a los ciclos de crisis económicas en general y respecto a las políticas de ajuste desarrolladas con la excusa de la "gran crisis" que nos atraviesa desde 2007/2008.El enfoque transformacional está implícito en todas las dimensiones de la crítica feminista, si bien se recoge de manera explícita en algunos planteamientos sobre cambio de modelo de sociedad. El objetivo de la sostenibilidad de la vida como prioridad de las políticas públicas emerge, confluyendo con otras perspectivas altermundistas respecto al cuestionamiento de las relaciones patriarcales.El necesario diálogo entre las alternativas y aproximaciones que se aportan desde la economía feminista pivota sobre una diversidad de ejes, entre los que la persistencia o dilución de la división sexual del trabajo tiene un lugar preferente. La orientación de las políticas públicas y la práctica de institucionalizar el enfoque de la igualdad de género son vistas, por parte de la crítica feminista, como instrumentos de utilidad para un proceso transformación del orden social de género impuesto.Este primer número de la revista ATLÁNTICAS incluye un monográfico sobre Economía Feminista que muestra, en su conjunto, un relato de la situación y perspectivas más significativas. ; A economía feminista representa unha fiestra aberta á reflexión, investigación e acción política respecto aos eixes de crítica feminista máis relevantes sobre a economía dominante. Neste sentido, a crítica abarca diferentes dimensións e niveis que se interrelacionan entre sí, desde aspectos macro e estructurais do sistema global, aos efectos sobre as condicións de vida de mulleres e homes e tamén en relación a outras crises, como a de coidados, a ecolóxica ou a democrática.Un importante foco de interese radica en facer emerxer desde a perspectiva de xénero, o entramado das relacións de poder desiguais e a súa influencia nos mercados de traballo, nos coidados e no reparto de tempos que mulleres e homes destinan á produción e reproducción social. A esta liña de traballo responden as leituras feministas respeto aos ciclos de crise económicas en xeral e respeto ás políticas de axuste desenroladas coa excusa da "grande crise" que nos atravesa desde 2007/2008. O enfoque transformacional está implícito en todas as dimensións da crítica feminista, se ben recóllese de forma explícita nalgúns plantexamentos sobre cambio de modelo de sociedade. O obxectivo da sostenibilidade da vida coma prioridade coma prioridade das políticas públicas emerxe, confluindo con outras perspectivas altermundistas respeto ao cuestionamento das relacións patriarcais. O necesario diálogo entre as alternativas e aproximacións que se aportan dende la economía feminista pivota sobre unha diversidade de eixos, entre os que a persistencia ou dilución da división sexual do traballo ten un lugar preferente. A orientación das políticas públicas e da práctica de institucionalizar o enfoque da igualdade de xénero son vistas, por parte da crítica feminista, como instrumentos de utilidade para un proceso de transformación da orde social de xénero imposta.Este primero número da revista ATLÁNTICAS inclúe un monográfico sobre Economía Feminista que amosa, no seu conxunto, un relato da situación e perspectivas máis significativas.

Mountains frame the landscape of the city of Rio de Janeiro and serve as support for the Atlantic forest and the urban fabric on its borders that gradually advances on it. This article analyzes the process of urban settlement on the slopes of the city of Rio de Janeiro, from a comparative analysis of landscape morphology. It focuses on the Tijuca Massif, whose slopes experience constant urban pressure from real-estate interests and territorial disputes around the edges of the Atlantic forest. This article describes occupation patterns found on the slopes of the city and specifically in the Tijuca Massif and points out the effects of local urban planning legislation on the landscape, linking them to the territorial appropriation processes and resulting environmental conflicts. The border between the Atlantic forest and the urban fabric on the slopes of Rio de Janeiro is an heterogeneous, unstable, and dynamic transition zone with different levels of occupation (strips), whose internal structural logic affect the configuration of the others, causing impacts, tension, and conflicts. These strips form a gradient of occupation, where the inner strips (mixed bands) are the ones that suffer the most dynamic changes, affecting and impacting the outer ones. Within these mixed bands, high income strata neighborhoods and favelas (slums) establish contiguous and complementary relationships among themselves. This picture demonstrates that urban planning, management, and the logic of urban occupation on the slopes of Rio de Janeiro need to evolve through a process of adjustment toward a regenerative urbanism, in which open spaces exert a structuring role to connect, articulate, and guarantee landscape resilience against geological hazards and mitigate the antithesis between the forest, formal settlements and the slums. ; As montanhas estruturam a paisagem da cidade do Rio de Janeiro e servem de suporte para a floresta Atlântica e para a mancha urbana ao seu redor, que avança gradativamente sobre ela. O presente artigo analisa o processo de ocupação urbana nas encostas da cidade do Rio de Janeiro, a partir de uma leitura comparativa da morfologia da paisagem, com foco no Maciço da Tijuca, cujas encostas vivenciam uma constante pressão urbana decorrente da valorização imobiliária e das disputas territoriais nas bordas da floresta Atlântica. Este artigo tem como objetivo caracterizar os padrões de ocupação encontrados nas encostas da cidade, e do Maciço da Tijuca, em particular e apontar os efeitos da legislação urbanística local sobre a paisagem, relacionando-os aos processos de apropriação territorial. A zona de fronteira entre a floresta Atlântica e a malha urbana nas encostas do Rio de Janeiro caracteriza-se como uma zona de transição, heterogênea, instável e dinâmica, onde é possível discernir diferentes faixas de ocupação, cujas lógicas internas de estruturação afetam a configuração das demais. Essas faixas conformam um gradiente de ocupação, onde as faixas internas (faixas de mescla) são as que sofrem transformações mais dinâmicas, afetando e impactando as externas. Nestas faixas de mescla se localiza uma constelação de núcleos de ocupação habitados por diferentes extratos sociais, com características formais e informais, isto é, regulares e irregulares do ponto de vista urbanístico e fundiário, que estabelecem entre si uma relação imbricada de contiguidade e complementaridade. Este quadro demonstra que o planejamento urbano, a gestão e a lógica da ocupação urbana nas encostas cariocas necessitam passar por um processo de ajuste, em direção a um urbanismo regenerador, no qual os espaços livres exerçam um papel estruturador na conexão, articulação e na resiliência da paisagem frente aos riscos geológicos e na mitigação da antítese entre a floresta, os territórios formalmente ocupados e as favelas. ; Las montañas estructuran el paisaje de la ciudad de Rio de Janeiro y actúan como soporte del bosque Atlántico y de la mancha urbana alrededor, que avanza gradualmente sobre éste. El presente artículo analiza el proceso de ocupación urbana en las zonas de ladera de la ciudad de Rio de Janeiro, a partir de una lectura comparativa de la morfología del paisaje, enfocada en el Macizo de Tijuca, cuyas laderas experimentan una constante presión urbana debido a la valorización inmobiliaria y a las disputas territoriales en las áreas fronterizas del bosque Atlántico. Este artículo tiene como objetivo caracterizar los patrones de ocupación que se encontraron en las zonas de ladera de la ciudad y del Macizo de Tijuca en particular, y apuntar a los efectos de la legislación urbanística local sobre el paisaje, relacionándolo a los procesos de apropiación territorial. El área fronteriza entre el bosque Atlántico y la malla urbana en las laderas de Rio de Janeiro se caracteriza como una zona de transición, heterogénea, inestable y dinámica, donde es posible diferenciar diferentes fajas de ocupación, cuyas lógicas internas de estructuración afectan la configuración de las demás. Estas fajas conforman un gradiente de ocupación, donde las franja internas (fajas de mezcla) son las que sufren transformaciones más dinámicas, afectando e impactando las externas. En estas fajas de mezcla se localiza una constelación de núcleos de ocupación habitados por diferentes estratos sociales, con características formales e informales, es decir, regulares e irregulares desde el punto de vista urbanístico y de propiedad de la tierra, que establecen entre sí una relación imbricada de contigüidad y complementariedad. Se argumenta que la planificación urbanística, la gestión y la lógica da ocupación urbana en las laderas cariocas necesitan pasar por un proceso de ajuste, en dirección a un urbanismo regenerador, en el cual los espacios libres ejerzan un papel estructurador en la conexión, articulación y en la resiliencia del paisaje frente a los riesgos geológicos y en la mitigación de la antítesis entre el bosque, los territorios formalmente ocupados y las favelas.

During the past quarter century fertility has dropped below replacement levels in many parts of the world. According to United Nations estimates, in 2005 this was the case in 65 countries, comprising 43 percent of the world's population. In many cases, most notably in Europe and East Asia, the shortfall of fertility from the level that would be necessary in the long run to sustain a stationary population is substantial. In Europe, for example, the average total fertility rate for the period 2000–2005 was 1.4. Indefinite maintenance of such a level implies a shrinkage of the total population by one‐third over a generation–roughly every 30 years. Accompanying that rapid decline of total numbers would be an age structure containing a preponderance of the elderly, posing extreme adjustment difficulties for the economic and social system.Societies that wish to avoid radical depopulation would have to engineer a substantial rise infertility–if not to full replacement level (slightly more than two children per woman), then at least to a level that would moderate the tempo of population decline and make population aging easier to cope with. An additional counter to declining numbers, if not significantly to population aging, could come from net immigration. This is the demographic future assumed in the UN medium‐variant projections for countries and regions currently of very low fertility. Thus, for example, in Europe over the period up to 2050 fertility is assumed to rise to 1.85 and net immigration to amount to some 32 million persons. The UN projections also anticipate further improvement in average life expectancy–from its current level of 74 years to 81 years. This factor slows the decline in population size but accelerates population aging. Under these assumptions, Europe's population would decline from its present 728 million to 653 million by 2050. At that time the proportion of the population over age 65 would be 27.6 percent, nearly double its present share.Demographic change of this nature is not a novel prospect. It was envisioned in a number of European countries and in North America, Australia, and New Zealand in the late 1920s and early 1930s. Concern with the possible economic and social consequences generated much discussion at that time among demographers and social scientists at large and also attracted public attention. Possible policy measures that might reverse the downward trend of fertility were also debated, although resulting in only hesitant and largely inconsequential action.The article by D. V. Glass reproduced below is an especially lucid and concise treatment of demographic changes under conditions of low fertility and their economic and social implications. It appeared in Eugenics Review (vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 39–47) in 1937 when the author was 26 years old. Glass's line of argument is broadly representative of the main focus of demographic analysis in the mid‐1930s on aspects of population dynamics, applying the then still novel analytical tool of the stable population model. It also echoes the work of economists then witnessing the great difficulties capitalist economies faced in adjusting to structural changes in consumer demand and labor supply. While Glass addresses these issues primarily with reference to England and Wales, he sees the issues as affecting all industrialized countries. The Malthusian problem of relentless population growth he persuasively declares to be irrelevant for these countries. The Western world faces the opposite problem: population decline, a trend only temporarily masked by the effects of an age distribution that still has a relatively high proportion of women in the child‐bearing ages, reflecting the higher fertility level of the past. A stationary population, Glass cogently argues, is to be welcomed, and he considers the absolute size at which zero growth would be achieved relatively unimportant. In contrast, a continuous population decline would have "thoroughly disastrous" results in an individualist civilization and in "an unplanned economic system." And, he concedes, somewhat quaintly, that sustained below‐replacement fertility would pose a great problem "even in a country in which the means of production were owned communally." Glass's conclusions about the reversibility of low fertility are as pessimistic as those of most informed observers today. Still, he sees hope in a future "rationally planned civilization" that would "produce an environment in which high fertility and a high standard of life will both be possible." In this context, high fertility means the level necessary to sustain the population in a stationary state. By present‐day standards the level Glass calculates as needed for long‐term zero growth is indeed fairly high: 2.87 children per woman. But that figure reflects the fact that, when he wrote, mortality up to age 50 was still fairly high and fertility occurred almost wholly within marriage; it also assumes zero net immigration. In the last 70 years much has changed in each of these three components of population dynamics, both in England and Wales and in the rest of Europe. Still, Glass's commentary remains highly relevant to the discussion of the problems of low fertility today.David Victor Glass (1911–78) was associated with the London School of Economics throughout much of his scientific career. He followed R. R. Kuczynski as reader in demography in 1945 and became professor of sociology in 1948. His work on demography, population history, and population policy had already made him one of the most influential demographers in pre‐World War II Britain. After the war he rose to international prominence through pioneering work on the Royal Commission of Population; through his research on historical demography, the history of demographic thought, and social mobility; and through founding, in 1947, the journal Population Studies, which he edited until his death.

Die Planungskommission der ETH Zürich (ETHZ) hat acht Kernbereiche der ETHZ identifiziert. Das Vorhaben hat zum Zweck, der Schulleitung Entscheidungsgrundlagen für die langfristige Planung der ETHZ bereitzustellen. Kernbereiche sind Bereiche von Gegenständen, denen sich Lehre, Forschung und wissenschaftliche Dienstleistung an der ETHZ schwergewichtig widmen oder in Zukunft widmen sollen. Sie werden inhaltlich definiert und sind weder neue Organisationseinheiten oder Vorläufer dazu, noch stellen sie Aggregierungen bisheriger Einheiten dar. Das Vorhaben wurde als Nutzwert-Analyse in vier Schritten durchgeführt: Etablierung eines Zielsystems, u.a. aufgrund einer Analyse bestehender Zielformulierungen Konzeption von Kernbereichen, u.a. aufgrund einer Analyse bestehender, informeller Interaktionsstrukturen innerhalb der ETHZ Bestimmung der Zielerträge und der Nutzwerte der Kernbereiche Schlussfolgerungen und Empfehlungen Das von der Planungskommission entwickelte Zielsystem für die ETHZ zeigt eine technisch-naturwissenschaftliche Hochschule mit einer leichten Priorität der Forschung gegenüber der Lehre. In der Forschung liegt der Akzent auf der Grundlagen- gegenüber der angewandten Forschung. In der Lehre wird sowohl disziplinäre Einzel- als auch interdisziplinäre Systemkompetenz angestrebt. Sowohl in der Lehre (v.a. Weiterbildung) als auch in der orientierten Forschung kommen der gesellschaftlichen Relevanz von Ingenieur- und Naturwissenschaften grosses Gewicht zu. Die Analyse der Interaktionsstrukturen an der ETHZ zeigt eine intensive, formal- strukturunabhängige innere Vernetzung der ETHZ. Nicht weniger beeindruckend ist auch die äussere Vernetzung der ETHZ mit externen Forschungsinstitutionen. Diese Vernetzungen stellen einen zentralen Reichtum dieser Hochschule dar. Weil die formale Struktur meist erst mit Verzögerung an die faktischen Strukturveränderungen des Hochschullebens angepasst wird, sind diese informellen Strukturen Hinweise auf zukünftig wichtig werdende Themen in Forschung und Lehre. Gleichzeitig ist ihr Vorhandensein eine wichtige Voraussetzung für die inhaltliche Weiterentwicklung der ETHZ. Als Ergebnis ihrer Analysen und Überlegungen bezeichnet die Planungskommission acht Kernbereiche, welche sowohl die besonderen Stärken der ETHZ (Triade Ingenieurwissenschaften / Naturwissenschaften / Sozial- und Geisteswissenschaften) als auch zukünftige Entwicklungen in den Umfeldern der ETHZ (Gesellschaft, Wirtschaft, Politik) reflektieren: Kernbereich 1: "Technisch-naturwissenschaftliche Grundlagen". Kernbereich 2: "Grundlagen sozio-technischer Systeme". Kernbereich 3: "Bau- und Infrastruktur-Systeme. Kernbereich 4: "Produktions-Systeme". Kernbereich 5: "Informations- und Kommunikations-Systeme". Kernbereich 6: "Biotechnologie, Gentechnologie, Neuroinformatik". Kernbereich 7: "Ernährungs- und Gesundheits-Systeme". Kernbereich 8: "Agrar-, Forst- und Umwelt-Systeme" Der Wert des Vorhabens "Kernbereiche der ETHZ" der Planungskommission ETHZ erschliesst sich in der Anwendung seiner Ergebnisse. Die Planungskommission er- kennt in den Kernbereichen zukunftsträchtige Gebiete von Gegenständen und Fragestellungen, für deren wissenschaftliche Bearbeitung die ETHZ als besonders geeignet erscheint. In den Kernbereichen verfügt die ETHZ über besonders grosse Erfolgspotentiale. In diesen Bereichen kann die ETHZ besonders wertvolle Beiträge zur Erreichung ihrer Zielsetzung leisten. Die ETHZ sollte deshalb in Zukunft die acht Kernbereiche als Grundlage zur Entscheidfindung in der langfristigen Planung der ETHZ heranziehen. Planungsentscheidungen dieser Art stehen in praktisch allen Bereichen des Hochschullebens an. In all diesen Fällen sollten bestehende Entscheidungsspielräume auf allen Stufen der ETHZ im Sinne einer verstärkten Ausrichtung auf die Kernbereiche ausgeschöpft werden. Wichtig scheint dabei die adäquate Interpretation und Verwendung der Aussagen des vorliegenden Vorhabens. Diese haben primär argumentativen Charakter. Falsch wäre es deshalb, allein daraus direkte Schlüsse etwa auf die Mittelverteilung zu ziehen. Sie sollten vielmehr im Rahmen eines auch andere Gesichtspunkte umfassen- den, diskursiven Prozesses verwendet werden. The planning commission of the ETH Zurich ( ETHZ) identifies eight core areas of the ETHZ. The main purpose of this project is to provide basics for long-term planning decision to the executive board of the ETHZ. Core areas are groups of topics, which are to be cultivated in education, research and scientific services within the ETHZ intensely. They are defined in content and are neither new organizational units or forerunner s of it nor they represent aggregated existing units. The project was carried out as a value benefit analysis in four steps: Establishing a target system (among other things due to an analysis of existing target formulations). Conception of core areas (among other things due to an analysis of existing, informal interaction structures within the ETHZ). Determination of the target yields and the benefit values in the core areas. Conclusions and recommendations. The target system developed by the planning commission for the ETHZ shows a technical and natural scientific university with an slight priority of research in relation to education. In research the accent is on the basic in relation to the applied research. In education both monodisciplinary single competence and interdisciplinary system competence are aimed. Both in education ( particularly further training) and in oriented research a large weight comes to the social relevance of engineer and natural sciences. The analysis of the interaction structures within the ETHZ shows an intensive internal networking independent from formal structures. Not less impressing is also the outside networking of the ETHZ with external research institutions. This networking represent a central wealth of this university. Because the form al structure is usually only adapted with time lag to the actual structural changes of the university life, these informal structures are referring to topics in research and education of future importance. Their presence is an major prerequisite for the development of the contents of the ETHZ . As a result of its analyses and considerations the planning commission call s eight core areas, which reflect both the special strengths of the ETHZ ( triad " engineering sciences / natural sciences / social sciences and humanities" ) and future developments in the context of the ETHZ (society, economics, politics). Core area 1: "technical-scientific basics". Core area 2: "basics of socio-technological systems". Core area 3: "building and infrastructure systems". Core area 4: "production systems". Core area 5: "information and communication systems". Core area 6: "biotechnology, genetic engineering, neuroinformatics". Core area 7: "nutrition and health systems". Core area 8: "agrarian, forest and environmental systems". The full value of the project of "core areas of the ETHZ " is only opened in the application of its results. The planning commission consider s the core areas as promising areas of topics and questions, for w hose scientific handling the ETHZ appear s as particularly suitable. Within the core areas the ETHZ has particularly large success potentials. Within these areas the ETHZ can make particularly valuable contributions for reaching its main objectives. Therefore one should consult the eight core areas as basis for decision making in the long- term planning of the ETHZ. Planning decisions of this type are to be made within practically all areas of the university life. In the sense of an intensified adjustment on the core areas existing scopes for decision should be exhausted on al l levels of the ETHZ. The predicates of the present project have a primarily argumentative character. An adequate interpretation and use of it seem to be important. Therefore it would be wrong to conclude from them direct conclusions on the fund distribution. They should be used rather in the context of a discursive process including al so other criteria.

Bleak short-term economic outlook raises the risk that social and environmental achievements may not be sustained. The changed economic circumstances have exposed shortcomings in Brazil's development model, epitomized by the struggle to achieve a sustainable fiscal policy. Against this background, some Brazilians are now asking whether the gains of the past decade might have been an illusion, created by the commodity boom, but unsustainable in today's less forgiving international environment. Brazil thus finds itself at an important juncture and, to a certain extent, the policy course set today will determine whether the country can sustain the gains of the past and return to a path of solid, inclusive and environmentally sustainable growth. This Systematic Country Diagnostic offers a contribution to the debate about Brazil's future development.

The main focus of the social protection and labor portfolio is on strengthening client's institutional capacity in the design and implementation of programs, but projects are not well equipped to track progress in this area. Correspondingly, there is a need to strengthen approaches to measuring and monitoring a 'missing middle' of service delivery, precisely those areas for which counterpart institutions are responsible during the course of a project. In particular, better measures of the primary functions of social protection and labor agencies are needed, such as identifying and enrolling beneficiaries, targeting, payment systems, fraud and error control, performance monitoring of service delivery providers, responsiveness to citizens, transparency, efficiency, management information systems and monitoring and evaluation systems. New World Bank initiatives particularly standard core indicators by sector and the introduction of results based investment lending call for substantial improvements in the use of monitoring and evaluation (M&E). Impact evaluations are included in about half of projects and should continue to be used selectively and strategically, particularly when the program is innovative, replicable and/ or scalable to reach a broader set of beneficiaries, addresses a knowledge gap and is likely to have a substantial policy impact. Structuring evaluations around core themes with common outcome measures is fundamental to building a global knowledge base on development effectiveness.

An Analysis of Six Case Studies in Developing and High-Income Countries ; This paper focuses on core aspects of the political economy of reform, drawing on case studies of three economies transitioning to stronger business environments (Hungary, the Republic of Korea, and Mexico) and three countries with well-developed business environments (Australia, Italy, and the United Kingdom). The purpose is threefold: first, to identify so-called drivers of reform among successfully reforming countries; second, to explore how a reform strategy can make optimal use of the opportunities provided by the drivers of change; and third; to suggest how these lessons can be proactively used by other reformers to design and guide reforms. The case study findings suggest that, regardless of the content of reform, success is influenced by an evolving mix of seven drivers of change: i) globalization or competitiveness; ii) crisis; iii) political leadership; iv) unfolding reform synergies; v) technocrats; vi) changes in civil society, and vii) external pressure. The case studies suggest that reformers can influence the direction and pace of change by mobilizing and exploiting drivers of it. Rather than a cause-and-effect scenario in which a single driver-such as a crisis-creates and defines the success of a body of reforms, what happens is an unfolding series of events in which various drivers become more and less important in defining phases of the reform process.

Problem setting. Traditional mechanisms and management methods require new strategies for tools, there is an urgent need to reorient to modern management methods, the introduction of digital technologies in management processes to optimize and accelerate them. Creation of modern digital communications, the introduction of omnichannel, automation of standard operations, which increases the productivity of each employee, and in the future – the use of artificial intelligence for processing large data sets and full automation of public services. Modern public administration requires a fundamental rethinking and radical reengineering of management processes to achieve greater efficiency, improve service delivery quality and efficiency, and help increase the level of satisfaction of consumers of public services. Recent research and publications analysis. At the beginning of the 21st century, scholars and practitioners are faced with the need to revise and modernize classical models, concepts, and digital tools of public administration. The issue of digital transformations and reengineering of public administration has been the subject of research by many foreign and Ukrainian scholars, but the scientific literature lacks research on the concepts and mechanisms of digital transformation and reengineering in public administration. The paper objective – elucidation of perspective strategies of digital transformations of public administration, research of concepts and mechanisms of reengineering of service activity of public authorities, and development of offers on modernization of administrative processes. The paper main body. Within the concepts of service-oriented public policy we can define the tasks facing the bodies of public introduction in the process of digitalization of public administration: –increase the efficiency of process management through digital administration; –development of digital interaction with citizens, provision of digital management services. One of the methods of radically improving the quality of local government may be connected with the transition to e-government, reengineering of administrative processes. The vector of reengineering is the introduction of managerial innovations with the use of information and communication technologies, which, in turn, involves the implementation of active actions aimed at replacing the old capabilities of the state body with completely new ones. Currently, there are the following approaches to management: process, system, and situational. The process approach treats the management system as a series of directly interconnected actions, each of which is a process – a management function. The process approach to management is based on the Deming-Schuhart cycle – a model of continuous process improvement, (PDCA cycle: P – Plan, D – Do, C – Check, A – Act). The development of the PDCA cycle with a large number of correlations, with zero deviation, and the use of elements of artificial intelligence should lead to fully automated processes of providing management services by public authorities. The systems approach assumes integrity, which consists of interdependent parts, each of which characterizes the whole, and the organization is considered as a set of interconnected elements, such as people, structure, tasks, technology, and so on. The situational approach is based on the fact that the priority of management methods is determined by the situation. Due to the fact that there are many factors both in the organization and in the external environment, there is no single "best" method of management. Approaches to the management process are implemented through the introduction of management concepts. Business Process Management (BPM) is a concept that aligns an organization's strategy and goals with customer expectations and needs by customizing end-to-end processes. Customer Relationship Management (CRM) is a concept in which the recipient of services is given priority. To optimize management operations and increase organizational efficiency, it is important to combine CRM and BPM technologies. As the core of the CRM system, BPM technology allows you to quickly transform management processes to meet changes in external conditions, giving users immediate access to all the necessary information they need, which significantly speeds up workflows. Advantages of complex application of BPM technology of CRM-system in the field of service activity of public authorities: – modeling, adjustment, and monitoring of processes; – management of unstructured processes; – clear and transparent work processes; – process management in a single environment; – advanced analytics; – fast exchange of information due to integration into a single IT ecosystem; – scalability, security, and mobile access to CRM; – communication between structural units and service recipients. The effectiveness of the CRM solution is achieved by the correct application of the process approach and its close connection with the strategy. The capabilities of the BPM system are the key to continuous improvement of the management model and increase efficiency by combining the efforts of all employees and departments of public authorities. Conclusions of the research. The task of reengineering is to optimize the processes of providing public services. The object of reengineering is administrative processes, their optimization, and improvement, which allow to open and use new opportunities to improve management efficiency. Integrated use of CRM and the concept of BPM realize the main goal of reengineering – the ability to build adaptation systems focused on the production and fulfillment of requests from public service visitors and built processes to ensure they get the maximum result with minimum financial and labor costs. The result of successful reengineering is the improvement of numerical indicators and the quality of services. ; У статті з'ясовано сутність цифрової трансформації в сервісній діяльності органів публічної влади та реінжинірингу адміністративно-управлінських процесів. Визначено завдання концепції сервісно орієнтованої державної політики. Проведено фактологічний аналіз концептуальних стратегій до процесу управління, зокрема процесного, системного та ситуаційного, які реалізуються через концепції управління бізнес-процесами (BPM) та управління взаємовідносинами з клієнтами (CRM). Запропоновано комплексний підхід до використання управлінських концепцій. Розглянуто переваги комплексного використання CRM- та BPM-концепцій для ефективного процесу надання публічних послуг.Ключові слова: публічне управління; сервісна діяльність органів публічної влади; цифрові трансформації; реінжиніринг; CRM-концепція; BPM-концепція.

Problem setting. Traditional mechanisms and management methods require new strategies for tools, there is an urgent need to reorient to modern management methods, the introduction of digital technologies in management processes to optimize and accelerate them. Creation of modern digital communications, the introduction of omnichannel, automation of standard operations, which increases the productivity of each employee, and in the future – the use of artificial intelligence for processing large data sets and full automation of public services. Modern public administration requires a fundamental rethinking and radical reengineering of management processes to achieve greater efficiency, improve service delivery quality and efficiency, and help increase the level of satisfaction of consumers of public services. Recent research and publications analysis. At the beginning of the 21st century, scholars and practitioners are faced with the need to revise and modernize classical models, concepts, and digital tools of public administration. The issue of digital transformations and reengineering of public administration has been the subject of research by many foreign and Ukrainian scholars, but the scientific literature lacks research on the concepts and mechanisms of digital transformation and reengineering in public administration. The paper objective – elucidation of perspective strategies of digital transformations of public administration, research of concepts and mechanisms of reengineering of service activity of public authorities, and development of offers on modernization of administrative processes. The paper main body. Within the concepts of service-oriented public policy we can define the tasks facing the bodies of public introduction in the process of digitalization of public administration: –increase the efficiency of process management through digital administration; –development of digital interaction with citizens, provision of digital management services. One of the methods of radically improving the quality of local government may be connected with the transition to e-government, reengineering of administrative processes. The vector of reengineering is the introduction of managerial innovations with the use of information and communication technologies, which, in turn, involves the implementation of active actions aimed at replacing the old capabilities of the state body with completely new ones. Currently, there are the following approaches to management: process, system, and situational. The process approach treats the management system as a series of directly interconnected actions, each of which is a process – a management function. The process approach to management is based on the Deming-Schuhart cycle – a model of continuous process improvement, (PDCA cycle: P – Plan, D – Do, C – Check, A – Act). The development of the PDCA cycle with a large number of correlations, with zero deviation, and the use of elements of artificial intelligence should lead to fully automated processes of providing management services by public authorities. The systems approach assumes integrity, which consists of interdependent parts, each of which characterizes the whole, and the organization is considered as a set of interconnected elements, such as people, structure, tasks, technology, and so on. The situational approach is based on the fact that the priority of management methods is determined by the situation. Due to the fact that there are many factors both in the organization and in the external environment, there is no single "best" method of management. Approaches to the management process are implemented through the introduction of management concepts. Business Process Management (BPM) is a concept that aligns an organization's strategy and goals with customer expectations and needs by customizing end-to-end processes. Customer Relationship Management (CRM) is a concept in which the recipient of services is given priority. To optimize management operations and increase organizational efficiency, it is important to combine CRM and BPM technologies. As the core of the CRM system, BPM technology allows you to quickly transform management processes to meet changes in external conditions, giving users immediate access to all the necessary information they need, which significantly speeds up workflows. Advantages of complex application of BPM technology of CRM-system in the field of service activity of public authorities: – modeling, adjustment, and monitoring of processes; – management of unstructured processes; – clear and transparent work processes; – process management in a single environment; – advanced analytics; – fast exchange of information due to integration into a single IT ecosystem; – scalability, security, and mobile access to CRM; – communication between structural units and service recipients. The effectiveness of the CRM solution is achieved by the correct application of the process approach and its close connection with the strategy. The capabilities of the BPM system are the key to continuous improvement of the management model and increase efficiency by combining the efforts of all employees and departments of public authorities. Conclusions of the research. The task of reengineering is to optimize the processes of providing public services. The object of reengineering is administrative processes, their optimization, and improvement, which allow to open and use new opportunities to improve management efficiency. Integrated use of CRM and the concept of BPM realize the main goal of reengineering – the ability to build adaptation systems focused on the production and fulfillment of requests from public service visitors and built processes to ensure they get the maximum result with minimum financial and labor costs. The result of successful reengineering is the improvement of numerical indicators and the quality of services. ; У статті з'ясовано сутність цифрової трансформації в сервісній діяльності органів публічної влади та реінжинірингу адміністративно-управлінських процесів. Визначено завдання концепції сервісно орієнтованої державної політики. Проведено фактологічний аналіз концептуальних стратегій до процесу управління, зокрема процесного, системного та ситуаційного, які реалізуються через концепції управління бізнес-процесами (BPM) та управління взаємовідносинами з клієнтами (CRM). Запропоновано комплексний підхід до використання управлінських концепцій. Розглянуто переваги комплексного використання CRM- та BPM-концепцій для ефективного процесу надання публічних послуг.Ключові слова: публічне управління; сервісна діяльність органів публічної влади; цифрові трансформації; реінжиніринг; CRM-концепція; BPM-концепція.

Cada vez más se reconoce que el cambio climático genera importantes riesgos macroeconómicos y financieros. Existen riesgos físicos asociados a los desastres generados por eventos hidrometeorológicos y a cambios graduales pero persistentes en las temperaturas que tienen un impacto estructural en la actividad económica, la productividad y los ingresos. Además, el proceso de ajuste hacia una economía con bajas emisiones de carbono, impulsado por cambios en las políticas relacionadas con el clima, interrupciones tecnológicas y cambios en las preferencias de los consumidores, genera riesgos de transición. Después de un breve análisis de las políticas macroeconómicas, fiscales y fiscales para gestionar estos riesgos, este documento se concentra en: (i) cómo las políticas financieras pueden ayudar a mejorar la transparencia y la divulgación de riesgos relacionados con el clima en los balances de las instituciones financieras y los precios de los activos, particularmente con regulación y supervisión prudencial apropiada; y (ii) cómo se podrían tener en cuenta esos riesgos en la política monetaria y en los balances y operaciones de los bancos centrales. El artículo termina con algunas reflexiones sobre la pandemia de Covid-19 y la voluntad de una recuperación "verde". ; It is increasingly recognized that climate change generates major macroeconomic and financial risks. There are physical risks associated to the disasters generated by hydro-meteorological events and to gradual but persistent changes in temperatures that have structural impacts on economic activity, productivity and incomes. Additionally, the process of adjustment towards a lower-carbon economy, prompted by changes in climate-related policies, technological disruptions and changes in consumer preferences, generates transition risks. After a brief analysis of the macroeconomic, fiscal and tax policies to manage these risks, this paper concentrates on: (i) how financial policies can help improve transparency and climate-related risk disclosure in financial institutions' balance sheets and assets prices, particularly with appropriate prudential regulation and supervision; and (ii) how those risks could be taken into account in monetary policy and central banks' balance sheets and operations. The paper ends with some reflections on the Covid-19 pandemic and the will for a "green" recovery. ; Enfoque Cada vez se reconoce con mayor claridad que el cambio climático genera importantes riesgos macroeconómicos y financieros. Existen riesgos físicos asociados a los desastres generados por eventos extremos, así como a cambios graduales pero persistentes en las temperaturas que tienen impactos estructurales en la actividad económica y la productividad. Además, el proceso de ajuste hacia una economía baja en carbono, impulsado por las políticas públicas relacionadas con el clima y por cambios tecnológicos, genera riesgos de transición. En este documento se hace una revisión crítica de la literatura internacional sobre las políticas para enfrentar los riesgos macroeconómicos y financieros del cambio climático. En primer lugar, se hace una breve identificación de dichos riesgos, sus mecanismos de transmisión sobre la economía, sus efectos sectoriales, su eventual magnitud y las políticas macroeconómicas y fiscales para gestionarlos, entre ellas el impuesto al carbono. A continuación, se discute la forma en que las políticas financieras, mediante regulación y supervisión prudencial apropiada, pueden ayudar a movilizar las finanzas para lograr una transformación masiva de la estructura productiva. Finalmente, se analiza hasta qué punto y en qué forma se podrían tener en cuenta los riesgos relacionados con el clima en el diseño de la política monetaria y en las operaciones de los bancos centrales, para contribuir a salvaguardar de manera eficiente y exitosa la estabilidad financiera, y del producto, el empleo y la inflación en niveles sostenibles de largo plazo. El artículo termina con una breve síntesis de alternativas de política para contribuir a una recuperación "verde" luego de la pandemia de Covid-19. Contribución En este documento se lleva a cabo una revisión crítica de la literatura internacional sobre los riesgos macroeconómicos y financieros asociados al cambio climático y las alternativas de políticas para enfrentarlos. Contribuye a ilustrar sobre una fuente de riesgos que, de manera paulatina pero creciente, amenaza la estabilidad financiera, así como la capacidad de la economía de garantizar niveles del producto, empleo e inflación sostenibles de largo plazo, y sobre las posibles opciones de política para lograr estos objetivos, su potencial y sus limitaciones. Se hace un especial énfasis en la perspectiva de la comunidad internacional de reguladores y supervisores financieros y de bancos centrales. Resultados El documento reconoce que, a pesar de los esfuerzos de la literatura, existe una gran incertidumbre sobre la magnitud de riesgos macroeconómicos y financieros relacionados con el clima. Asimismo, los modelos de simulación sobre su impacto presentan limitaciones, lo cual explica que el rango de las estimaciones sea muy amplio, dependiendo de los escenarios y supuestos sobre variables críticas. Además, la literatura concentra su atención en los países desarrollados, y son escasos los análisis sobre los problemas que generan las estructuras exportadoras y los riesgos cambiarios característicos de muchas economías emergentes y en desarrollo. A pesar de lo anterior, el documento identifica un amplio conjunto de alternativas de política para enfrentar los enormes desafíos y costos potenciales de los riesgos que genera el cambio climático. Se destaca la importancia de los impuestos al carbono, la transformación del sector energético y las inversiones públicas en adaptación y mitigación. También se pone de presente en qué forma diversas opciones de políticas financieras y monetarias pueden apoyar los mecanismos del mercado para movilizar las finanzas hacia las masivas transformaciones requeridas de la estructura productiva. Dada la perspectiva internacional del análisis, dichas opciones deben tener en cuenta el marco legal e institucional de cada país. Finalmente, se concluye que las políticas financiera y monetaria pueden contribuir a un futuro más sostenible, pero de ninguna manera, reemplazar las responsabilidades de los gobiernos en políticas climáticas y fiscales

This dissertation consists of five studies on dynamic micro founded macroeconomics. Micro founded macroeconomics is a flexible paradigm. It can be enriched by micro data, assess drivers of economic fluctuations, and is particularly suited for policy analysis. The studies contained in this dissertation contribute to all of these aspects. Chapter 1 outlines the contribution to contemporary scholarship and connects the five studies through their shared scientific paradigm. Chapter 2 provides a novel experimental design that allows to test preferences of people over the temporal resolution of consumption uncertainty. Our experimental design does not require any structural assumptions and measures these attitudes directly in a model-free way. Preferences regarding the temporal structure of uncertainty play a key role in recursive utility models. They constitute a central ingredient in macrofinancial studies and beyond. In a laboratory experiment, we find that, on average, subjects only weakly prefer an early resolution of uncertainty. Surprisingly, recursive utility has no predictive power in explaining preferences over the temporal resolution of consumption uncertainty. The remaining chapters apply dynamic micro founded models to macroeconomic research questions, which are at the center of contemporary discussions. Chapter 3 explores the effects of technological advances in automation technology on growth and inequality. For this purpose, the study builds a novel macroeconomic model with household (skill) heterogeneity, in which automation capital serves as a production input. The model suggests that automation amplifies aggregate growth but generates substantial inequality when skillshares are fixed. Endogenous education choice reduces rising inequality via general equilibrium effects. The chapter discusses potential policy responses in the form of taxes on machines, corporate income taxation, and education subsidies. Chapter 4 asks what drives protracted low inflation in the post-crisis euro area. The estimation of a non-linear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the global economy finds that weak domestic demand, in combination with the zero lower bound, explains a large share of the inflation slowdown. Labor market developments have put additional downward pressure on prices. However, a DSGE model, which focuses on domestic shocks, cannot tell the whole story: External price developments, related to substantial swings in commodity prices and declining euro area (EA) import prices, play a significant role in the post-crisis inflation process. Chapter 5 estimates a multi-region DSGE model to study the fiscal policy implications of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) for an individual country in a currency union. Non-linear methods explicitly account for an endogenous occasionally binding DNWR constraint and the state-dependence of policy. We show that a cut in social security contributions (SSC) paid by employers is particularly effective under DNWR: While the impact multiplier of government expenditure is larger, the SSC reduction entails more persistent growth effects. Moreover, the adjustment of the economy to an SSC reduction is more tax rich, which makes this policy attractive for countries during an economic crisis with limited fiscal space. The US macroeconomic experience of the last decade stressed the importance of jointly studying the growth and business cycle fluctuations behavior of the economy. To analyze this issue, Chapter 6 embeds a model of Schumpeterian growth into a medium-scale DSGE model. Results from a Bayesian estimation suggest that fluctuations in investment risk premia are key drivers of the slump following the Great Recession. Demand shocks are relevant to the evolution of technology, and endogenous growth amplifies financial crises. However, the model estimation challenges the common claim that the slump is a pure demand-side phenomenon. We identify adverse supply-side factors such as a decline of the innovative capacity and frontier technology well before the financial turmoil. ; Die vorliegende Dissertation besteht aus fünf Aufsätzen zu dynamischer mikrofundierter Makroökonomie. Mikrofundierte Makroökonomie ist ein flexibles wissenschaftliches Paradigma. Die Offenheit und Transparenz erlauben es, Mikrodaten sinnvoll zu integrieren, Ursachen von Konjunkturschwankungen zu untersuchen und machen mikrofundierte Makroökonomie besonders geeignet für wirtschaftspolitische Analyse. Diese Dissertation liefert Beiträge zu all diesen Aspekten. Das erste Kapitel legt die Beiträge der einzelnen Studien zur gegenwärtigen Forschung dar und verbindet sie anhand des gemeinsamen wissenschaftstheoretischen Paradigmas. Kapitel 2 entwickelt neue experimentelle Methoden, um Präferenzen hinsichtlich der zeitlichen Struktur von (Konsum-)Unsicherheit zu testen. Präferenzen hinsichtlich der zeitlichen Struktur von Unsicherheit sind ein zentrales Element rekursiver Nutzenmodelle und wichtiger Bestandteil in der makrofinanziellen Theoriebildung und darüber hinaus. Die vorgeschlagene experimentelle Methode hat den Vorteil, nicht an ein bestimmtes parametrisches Modell gebunden zu sein. Unsere Resultate zeigen, dass die meisten Teilnehmer nur schwach ausgeprägte Präferenzen hinsichtlich der zeitlichen Auflösung von Konsumunsicherheit haben. Die Ergebnisse zeigen außerdem, dass das rekursive Nutzenmodell keine Erklärungskraft bezüglich dieser Präferenzen hat. Die weiteren Kapitel wenden dynamische mikrofundierte Modelle zur Analyse von makroökonomischen Fragestellungen an. Kapitel 3 analysiert die Wachstums- und Verteilungseffekte von fortschreitender Automatisierung des Produktionsprozesses. Zu diesem Zweck entwickelt Kapitel 3 ein neues dynamisches Gleichgewichtsmodell mit Haushalts- und Ausbildungsheterogenität, in dem Automatisierungskapital ein Produktionsfaktor ist. In dem Modell generiert Automatisierung Wachstum. Durch die unterschiedliche Interaktion mit verschiedenen Formen von Arbeit (Routine- versus Nicht-Routine-Tätigkeiten) führt Automatisierung auch zu einem Anstieg von Einkommens- und Konsumungleichheit, insbesondere solange die Ausbildungsniveaus der Haushalte konstant bleiben. Endogene Bildungsentscheidungen verringern den Anstieg von Ungleichheit durch starke gesamtwirtschaftliche Rückkopplungseffekte. Das Kapitel betrachtet Steuern auf Automatisierungstechnologie, Besteuerung von Kapitaleinkommen und Bildungssubventionen als potentielle Politikmaßnahmen. In diesem Zusammenhang werden potentielle Wohlfahrtsgewinne und -verluste aus dynamischer Perspektive analysiert. Kapitel 4 untersucht Faktoren, die zur gegenwärtigen langen Niedriginflationsphase in der Eurozone geführt haben. Die Schätzung eines nicht-linearen dynamischen stochastischen allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodells (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, DSGE) der globalen Wirtschaft zeigt, dass die Nullzinsuntergrenze in Kombination mit Nachfrageschocks einen Großteil des Inflationsrückgangs erklären kann. Laut der Schätzung haben angebotsseitige Entwicklungen im Arbeitsmarkt (Lohnzurückhaltung) zusätzlichen negativen Preisdruck verursacht. Preisentwicklungen außerhalb der Eurozone, insbesondere Rohstoffpreisschwankungen und ein Rückgang der Exportpreise im Rest der Welt, spielen eine wichtige Rolle. Kapitel 5 analysiert fiskalpolitische Implikationen von abwärtsgerichteten Nominallohnrigiditäten (ANLR) für Länder in einer Währungsunion. Nichtlineare Lösungsmethoden und Schätzverfahren berücksichtigen, dass Löhne stärker auf gute als auf schlechte gesamtwirtschaftliche Entwicklungen reagieren. Diese Asymmetrie führt zu Zustandsabhängigkeit von Fiskalpolitik, d.h. die makroökonomischen Effekte fiskalischer Maßnahmen unterscheiden sich je nach Konjunkturphase. Die Analyse zeigt, dass eine Senkung der Sozialversicherungsbeiträge (SVB) auf Arbeitgeberseite im Falle einer schweren Rezession und ANLR besonders effektiv ist. Diese Politikmaßnahme erzeugt langlebigere Wachstumseffekte als Staatsausgabenerhöhungen, auch wenn letztere einen größeren Multiplikatoreffekt in der kurzen Frist aufweisen. Darüber hinaus führt die Senkung der SVB zu einer Expansion der Steuerbasis und höheren Steuereinnahmen. Eine Senkung der SVB ist daher eine sinnvolle Maßnahme zur Stabilisierung des Konjunkturzyklus für Länder mit geringem fiskalischen Spielraum. Angesichts der langanhaltenden Niedrigwachstumsphase nach der Finanzkrise analysiert Kapitel 6 Perspektiven auf Wachstum und Konjunktur. Um die komplizierten Zusammenhänge abwägen zu können, konstruiert Kapitel 6 ein neues makroökonomisches Modell, das neben Finanzkrisen und Konjunkturzyklen auch die Entwicklung von Produktivität und Technologie abbildet. Zu diesem Zweck integriert die Studie ein schumpeterianisches Wachstumsmodell in ein neukeynesianisches Konjunkturzyklusmodell. Ergebnisse einer bayesianischen Schätzung zeigen, dass Risikoprämien für Investitionen eine wichtige Ursache der Wachstumsflaute sind. Die Nachfrageschwäche beeinflusst Forschungs- und Entwicklungsausgaben und damit den technischen Fortschritt. Zugleich verstärkt endogenes Wachstum die Effekte von Finanzkrisen. Nichtsdestotrotz bestreitet die Modellschätzung, dass die Niedrigwachstumsphase ein reines Nachfragephänomen ist. Angebotsseitige Entwicklungen wie abnehmende Innovationsdynamik und Rückgang des spitzentechnologischen Fortschritts traten bereits vor der Finanzkrise auf.