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This work contributes to the literature about the Euro-area monetary policy analysing the effects of unconventional measures, the conduct of monetary policy by the European central bank and the effects of the crisis on the economic structures of member countries. The first chapter deals with the effects of unconventional monetary policy measures implemented since 2007 to cope with the financial and sovereign debt crisis. The focus is on government bond yields as they as they became the direct expression of the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro area, and it deals with two aspects of the transmission mechanism: the first one is the expectational channel and the second one is the effect of liquidity injections. Results show that the effect of unconventional monetary policies are not unique inside the monetary union but vary across countries and over time. In particular, the unfolding of the European sovereign debt crisis completely changed the impact of liquidity injections as they led to a rise in interest rate spreads for highly indebted countries. The second chapter analyzes the conduct of monetary policy in the Euro area over the period 1999-2013 by estimating several monetary policy reaction functions with time-varying coefficients and heteroskedastic error terms. This allows to evaluate whether relevant shifts in the conduct of monetary policy occurred and whether the current financial crisis had an influence on that. Results show that the sensitivity of the ECB towards inflation and output gap changed along the time span and mainly after 2008 as it also started to respond to new variables like bank loans and sovereign bond yield spreads. The third chapter analyzes the effects of the recent economic crisis in the Euro area in light of international structural macroeconomic relationships. This is achieved through a conditional forecast exercise. By comparing the forecast with the actual path of the Euro-area variables it is possible to evaluate whether, given the effects of the crisis in US, pre-crisis structural macroeconomic relationship are able to explain Euro-area economic developments during the crisis. Results show that the effects of the crisis have been much more heterogeneous than what implied by structural relationships and the crisis shock suggesting that either a structural break or a strong idiosyncratic shock affected the Euro area after 2008. Finally, the sovereign debt crisis by itself seems not to be able to explain neither business-cycle and inflation heterogeneity, nor the recent recession and economic slack.

Strikes are totally inefficient from an economic point of view. They occur when the two parties that bargain over a contract do not find an agreement and the result is a loss of utility for both. In spite of their clear inefficiency in the real world strikes are very common both in the rich economies as well as in the poor countries. Moreover, recent empirical literature found some regularities over time and over countries regarding the strike behavior of the Trade Unions. The aim of this paper is to develop a theory that could explain this apparent economic paradox as well as some of the most known regularities. At the same time we also aim to link the analysis of the strikes with the investment decisions of employers and workers in that particular kind of capital good known as Human Capital. This kind of approach can put under a new light the role played by the Trade Unions in the process of economic growth.

В статье исследована взаимосвязь времени и экономического движения. Дан анализ линейных, циклических и эволюционных форм экономического времени. Евразийское хозяйственное время рассмотрено в философском контексте современной научной картины мира. Раскрыто принципиальное значение неоднородности времени в дискурсе евразийской политэкономии. Определено соотношение времени и пространства в хозяйственных системах ; The article focuses on the mutual relation of time and economic movement, analyzes the linear, cyclical, and evolutionary forms of economic time, and defines the correspondence between time and space in economic systems.Eurasian economic time is treated in the philosophical context of the contemporary scholarly world view; the non-homogeneity of time within the discourse of Eurasian political economy is particularly stressed

Este artículo presenta en primer lugar, una visión general del contraste entre las nociones de tiempo cíclico y tiempo escatológico o "absoluto". Este contraste se ejemplifica con la observación de la conversión del año natural (como ciclo de estaciones) en el año litúrgico. Este cambio se analiza en la última parte del estudio, pero sólo muy brevemente, con referencia al Auto da Alma de Gil Vicente. El resto del artículo trata de la búsqueda de un sentido último en el Triunfo do Inverno con referencia a una concepción cíclica del tiempo convertida en escatológica, no por razones religiosas, sino políticas. ; This paper first presents a general overview of the contrast between the notions of cyclikal time and eschatological or «absolute» time. This contrast is exemplified by observing the conversion of the natural year (as a cycle of seasons) into the liturgical year. This change is analysed in the last part of the study, but only very briefly, with reference to the Auto da Alma by Gil Vicente. The rest of the article deals with the search for an ultimate meaning in the Triunfo do Inverno with reforence to a cyclical conception of time turned ínto an eschatological one, not for religious, but rathcr political reasons. ; peerReviewed

This paper demonstrates that, despite the current mandate of monetary policy, its final goal (at least for central banks of developed countries) is the control of three main macroeconomic variables — economic growth, employment and inflation, — regardless on actual mandate for this policy. However, the priorities of realization of the final goal may face the imperfection of macroeconomic models and rules of monetary policy, which will make it impossible to control all three macroeconomic variables at the same time. The article proposes a new instrument for monetary policy — aggregate cumulative market imperfection — to optimize macroeconomic variables and stabilize cyclical economic dynamics. The author demonstrates the main competitive advantages of this instrument of monetary policy as compared with typical models of macroeconomic dynamics and simple rules of monetary policy (Simons, Friedman, and Taylor rules). In particular, this instrument is valid for any combination of market conditions, for any economy and for any moment of real time. It can be used simultaneously as: 1) a target of monetary policy; 2) a simple rule of monetary policy correction in the short-run; 3) a reaction function to evaluate a backward connection between the regulator's actions and the effect of these actions on current economic situation; and 4) an instrument to stabilize cyclical economic dynamics; 5) an instrument to forecast starting (ending) point of recessions and shift in macroeconomic trends. If we can hold the aggregate cumulative market imperfection within a given optimal interval with the help of government regulations (i.e. to target this indicator only) using all possible instruments both of monetary, and (if necessary) of other kinds of regulation policy, we will be able to optimize all three main macroeconomic variables. Optimality of these variables means providing maximum economic growth and employment under comfortable inflation for any combination of market conditions and for any moment of calendar time, which will at the same time stabilize cyclical economic dynamics. In doing so, we will not target each of these three variables separately, that is, it is practically impossible to determine quantitatively their optimal values as they change permanently over time together with the constant change of current combination of market conditions.

This paper uses cross-country micro-aggregated data on firm dynamics and productivity from the ECB CompNet database to provide empirical evidence on factor reallocation in the European Union (EU). The analysis finds that reallocation is towards more productive firms although the magnitude varies across countries and over time. Variation in reallocation is related to structural differences in firm size distribution across countries as well as to variation in labor and product market institutions. Productivity-enhancing reallocation generally rises in downturns but, similar to findings for the US, it did not pick up in the Great Recession. The sharp drop in exports and tightness in credit markets are seen to provide a partial explanation for this lack of a silver lining.

This paper argues that any assessment on the intentional stance of fiscal policy should be based upon all the information available to policymakers at the time of fiscal planning. In particular, real-time data on the discretionary fiscal policy "instrument", the structural primary balance, should be used in the estimation of fiscal policy reaction functions. In fact, the ex-post realization of discretionary fiscal measures may end up to be drastically different from what was planned by fiscal authorities in the budget law. When fiscal policy rules are estimated on real-time data, our results indicate that OECD countries often planned a counter-cyclical fiscal stance, especially during economic expansions, whereas conventional findings based on revised data point towards pro-cyclicality. This finding calls into question the effectiveness of discretionary fiscal policies to fine tune the business cycle, as (pro-cyclical) actual outcomes tend to deviate from (counter-cyclical) fiscal plans. Furthermore, we test whether threshold effects might be at play in the reaction of fiscal policy to the economic cycle and to public debt accumulation. It emerges that the intended cyclical behavior of fiscal policy is characterized by two regimes, and that the switch between them is likely to occur when output is close to its equilibrium level. On the other hand, the use of revised data does not allow to identify any threshold effect.

International audience ; Nikolay Kondratieff is known primarily for his theory of long cycles. However,it is worth recalling that he was among the first who started to investigate thenature of different economic cycles and their systematic interaction. Actuallythe primary classification of cycles into short, medium and long belongs toKondratieff.In 1922, in his book The World Economy and its Conjunctures during andafter the War Nikolay Kondratieff formulated for the first time the basic tenetsof the theory of long cycles (Kondratieff 1922 [2002]). As until that time theeconomic literature hardly knew any other cycles than the ones with a characteristicperiod between 7 and 11 years (which were called industrial, commercial,and so on), Kondratieff quite logically called them 'short cycles' (Ibid.:323). However, already in 1925, in the Long Cycles of Conjuncture (Kondratieff1925 [1993]: 25–26), he began to call the same cycles as 'medium cycles'.1 Why? The fact is that in those years Kitchin (1923) discovered somecycles (with a characteristic period between 3 and 4 years) manifested in fluctuationsin inventories that could be denoted as truly 'short cycles'. Later, theybecame known as 'Kitchin cycles'. Due to the fact that the medium-term cyclesoften have internal ups and downs, a group of scientists in the Harvard Schoolheaded by Wesley Mitchell started to consider cycles statistically (not by theirlogic, but by the presence of recessions, from a recession to another recession,regardless of the point that different recessions may be significantly different asregards their strength and nature). As a result, they also detected some cycleswith a period between 3 and 4 years (which to a certain extent coincided withKitchin cycles).

International audience ; Nikolay Kondratieff is known primarily for his theory of long cycles. However,it is worth recalling that he was among the first who started to investigate thenature of different economic cycles and their systematic interaction. Actuallythe primary classification of cycles into short, medium and long belongs toKondratieff.In 1922, in his book The World Economy and its Conjunctures during andafter the War Nikolay Kondratieff formulated for the first time the basic tenetsof the theory of long cycles (Kondratieff 1922 [2002]). As until that time theeconomic literature hardly knew any other cycles than the ones with a characteristicperiod between 7 and 11 years (which were called industrial, commercial,and so on), Kondratieff quite logically called them 'short cycles' (Ibid.:323). However, already in 1925, in the Long Cycles of Conjuncture (Kondratieff1925 [1993]: 25–26), he began to call the same cycles as 'medium cycles'.1 Why? The fact is that in those years Kitchin (1923) discovered somecycles (with a characteristic period between 3 and 4 years) manifested in fluctuationsin inventories that could be denoted as truly 'short cycles'. Later, theybecame known as 'Kitchin cycles'. Due to the fact that the medium-term cyclesoften have internal ups and downs, a group of scientists in the Harvard Schoolheaded by Wesley Mitchell started to consider cycles statistically (not by theirlogic, but by the presence of recessions, from a recession to another recession,regardless of the point that different recessions may be significantly different asregards their strength and nature). As a result, they also detected some cycleswith a period between 3 and 4 years (which to a certain extent coincided withKitchin cycles).

Nikolay Kondratieff is known primarily for his theory of long cycles. However, it is worth recalling that he was among the first who started to investigate the nature of different economic cycles and their systematic interaction. Actually the primary classification of cycles into short, medium and long belongs to Kondratieff. In 1922, in his book The World Economy and its Conjunctures during and after the War Nikolay Kondratieff formulated for the first time the basic tenets of the theory of long cycles (Kondratieff 1922 [2002]). As until that time the economic literature hardly knew any other cycles than the ones with a characteristic period between 7 and 11 years (which were called industrial, commercial, and so on), Kondratieff quite logically called them 'short cycles' (Ibid.: 323). However, already in 1925, in the Long Cycles of Conjuncture (Kondratieff 1925 [1993]: 25–26), he began to call the same cycles as 'medium cycles'. 1 Why? The fact is that in those years Kitchin (1923) discovered some cycles (with a characteristic period between 3 and 4 years) manifested in fluctuations in inventories that could be denoted as truly 'short cycles'. Later, they became known as 'Kitchin cycles'. Due to the fact that the medium-term cycles often have internal ups and downs, a group of scientists in the Harvard School headed by Wesley Mitchell started to consider cycles statistically (not by their logic, but by the presence of recessions, from a recession to another recession, regardless of the point that different recessions may be significantly different as regards their strength and nature). As a result, they also detected some cycles with a period between 3 and 4 years (which to a certain extent coincided with Kitchin cycles).

Chapter 8 Analysis of Theories Part I -- chapter 24 Analysis of Theories Part I -- chapter Analysis of Theories Part I -- chapter Chapages 5 Under-consumption Theories -- chapter Chapages 5 Under-consumption Theories 141 -- chapter 144 99 -- chapter 194 Analysis of Theories Part I -- chapter Chapages 8 'Recent Discussions on the Trade Cycle 199 -- chapter Chapages 8 Recent Discussions on the Trade Cycle 203 -- chapter Analysis of Themes -- Part I -- chapter Chapages 8 Recent Discussions on the Trade Cycle 223 -- chapter 248 Analy sis of Theories Part I -- chapter Part II SYNTHETIC EXPOSITION RELATING TO THE NATURE AND CAUSES OF BUSINESS CYCLES -- chapter 35 Nature and Causes of the Cycle Part II -- chapter Chapages -- chapter 396 Nature and Causes of the Cycle Part II -- chapter The Up-tum : Revival 403 -- chapter 404 Nature and Causes of the Cycle Part II -- chapter Nature and Causes of the Cycle -- part Part III -- A Critique of Certain Tendencies in Modem Economic Theory -- chapter C. C rit iq u e : Te ndenc ies in M odern E co no m ic Th eo ry -- chapter Chapages 13 Critique: Tendencies in Modern Economic Theory 457 employment, changes in output due to changes in employment.1 (Output can, of course, change without changes in employment{u2014} harvest changes being the most important example. But the short run changes in aggregate output that constitute the business cycle are clearly not of that nature{u2014}which does not, however, exclude that crop changes as well as other exogenous disturbances may have great causal significance for the cycle). I follow Mitchell and Burns in defining the cycle as the shortest observable fluctuations in activity. In their words, ? business cycles vary from more than one year to ten or twelve years and are not divisible into shorter cycles of similar character with amplitudes approximating their own ?.2 Furthermore, I make no attempt at finding a regular sequence or pattern of ? minor ? and ? major ? cycles (as Hansen thinks there exists). Cycles do, of course, differ greatly in duration and enormously in amplitude; some depressions are mild, others severe; some upswings strong, others weak and abortive.3 But the most careful investigations in have convinced -- chapter historical environment and external disturbances is a complicated chemical compound and not a mechanical mixture whose con{u00AD} stituent parts are separable by more or less mechanical statistical devices. The statistical decomposition of time series in cycles and trend is an insoluble problem.1 But this does by no means exclude that it is often possible to explain particular cycles or phases (depressions or expansions) in terms of exogenous forces or endogenous processes or to point to strongly intensifying or mitigating factors which explain the mildness or severity of a particular depression, or weakness or strength of a particular upswing. Let me mention only one or two examples{u2014}more will follow later. The intensification of the boom following the outbreak of the war in Korea does not require any further explana{u00AD} tion than reference to the wave of Governmental and private spending engendered by the war.2 The great depression of the io,s in the U.S., whatever its deeper causes, was undoubtedly tremendously intensified by the collapse of the banking system. It is disturbing that economists do not see eye to eye on all these matters. But we can take consolation in the fact that despite great divergences in the interpretation and explanation, different -- chapter 468 Monetary Factors Affecting Economic Stability Part III -- chapter Nam e In d ex t o Parts Iand II -- 337339 -- chapter Sub je c t In d ex t o Parts Iand II -- chapter 496 Sub je c t In d ex t o Parts Iand II.

Over the last two hundred years phases of overproduction and of scarcity in academic careers have recurred with a remarkable regularity. The cyclical development depends on the complex interaction between the varying determinants of growth and the varying conditions of social recruitment for specific careers. If professional prospects are favourable, careers will open up into educationally uncultivated strata, and if the prospects worsen, its recruitment basis closes a little further down again. The interplay of attracting effects (pull) and deterrence effects (push) produce the remarkable long-term pulsation of student streams in the vocational subject areas. German data from theology, law, medicine and higher education suggest that political control has effected little change in the cycle. Academic qualifications and limits on entry have always been introduced at the times of excess supply, and the history of structural change in German education is linked to these phases. ; peerReviewed

Most of the newly acceded central and east European EU countries are among the main beneficiaries of EU Cohesion Policy. The main objective of this policy is to improve the long-term growth and employment prospects of the supported regions, and thereby to support convergence towards higher levels of per capita income. In the short run, however, EU Cohesion Policy may at times amplify macroeconomic challenges for supported countries. In periods of a downturn of the economy it can have a stabilising impact. During periods of unsustainably fast economic growth, however, its short-term demand effects may contribute to internal and/or external macroeconomic imbalances. Economic policymakers should thus ensure that EU Cohesion Policy enhances long-term productivity, while avoiding, in times of overheating, an increased risk of unsustainable developments as a result of the additional demand stimulus from EU Cohesion Policy .

In the course of operation, the construction industry will repeat deviations and adjustments to it equilibrium state. Understanding the development fluctuations of the construction industry is critical to the formulation of a country&rsquo ; s sustainable development strategy. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the development trend and fluctuation periodicity of the construction industry, particularly the deviation and characteristics of the development. In this paper, based on the H-P filtering method, the residual method for measurement of macro-economic cycle fluctuation is used to divide the periodic fluctuation of the Chinese construction industry into five rounds of economic cycles since the reform and opening up. The results are tested by a random test model and a self-correlation coefficient test model. The longitudinal time-series of data investigated in this research is the constant-price, gross output values of the construction industry in China in the period of 1980&ndash ; 2017 for a total of 38 years based on the national annual statistics. The results of the mathematical test show that the peak or valley of the economic cycle fluctuation of the construction industry in China reappears about every seven years or so. It shows that since the reform and opening up, the peak position of the cycle fluctuation of the Chinese construction industry began to decrease gradually, the valley level began to rise gradually, the volatility showed a downward trend, and the construction industry cycle fluctuation entered a steady and smooth process. The results of this study provide new comprehension of the development trend of construction industry and build the theoretical basis for governments and enterprises to judge the future development trends when formulating the relevant policies.