Suchergebnisse

AbstractGeographically large climatic hazard events are occurring more frequently, and with this increase, more research emphasis is being placed on their impact. However, a metrology for selecting which communities to survey following an event is not frequently discussed and as a result does not effectively incorporate all relevant disciplines in disaster research. This article provides a method for selecting communities for inclusion in field studies not only based on anticipated damage but also community‐level social factors that show predictive power in long‐term analyses. Due to the perishable nature of disaster data, this social metric and the field study decision tool were developed with the intent of being as rapidly implementable as possible while still providing insight regarding long‐term post‐event community trends. The community‐level social metric was developed using a hindcasting technique for hazard events in the years 2011, 2012, and 2013. Thresholds for stability and decline were established for both the predicted and the actual community outcomes. Of the communities that the model predicted would recover, 73% recovered using the definition provided. Meanwhile 74% of the communities predicted to decline did indeed decline, again using the definition provided. To enhance operability of this social metric, a decision‐making tool for community selection was also formalized and implemented in a field study conducted following the December 2021 quad‐state tornado outbreak in the United States. The lessons learned from this first implementation were used to inform a refined version of the decision‐making tool that is presented herein.

AbstractThe world is currently experiencing the environmental challenge of global warming, necessitating careful planning of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to deal with this problem. This study examines the environmental challenge posed by CO2 emissions from both a long and short‐term perspective. In the long term, despite efforts made by countries, our change‐point detection analysis shows that there has been no structural change in CO2 emissions since 1950. Without significant efforts, the carbon budget corresponding to the Paris Agreement's target will be exhausted by 2046. To achieve this target, a significant reduction in global CO2 emissions of 3.22% per year is necessary. In the short term, COVID‐19 is thought to have relieved pressure on CO2 emissions. However, this study shows that CO2 emissions quickly returned to normal levels after a brief downturn, and we provide information on the order of CO2 emissions recovery for different sectors.

AbstractAlthough they comprise a relatively small subset of all traffic deaths, hit‐and‐run (HR) fatalities are both contemptible and preventable. We analyze longitudinal data from 1982 to 2008 to examine the effects of blood alcohol concentration (BAC) laws on HR traffic fatalities. Our results suggest that lower BAC limits may have an unintended consequence of increasing HR fatalities, whereas a similar effect is absent for non‐HR fatalities. Specifically, we find that the adoption of a 0.08 BAC limit is associated to an 8.3% increase in HR fatalities. This unintended effect is more pronounced in urban areas and during weekends, which are typical settings for HR incidents.

AbstractAlthough waste‐to‐energy (WtE) incineration projects have boosted the economic effectiveness of the waste management system, locals frequently view them with suspicion, opposition, or even outright rejection because of potential environmental and health risks. In this study, by incorporating two additional variables, namely, objective knowledge and benefit perceptions, the planned risk information seeking model (PRISM) was extended in the context of the WtE incineration project. A total of 1726 respondents were interviewed in person. Results from the structural equation modeling indicated that the extended PRISM achieved excellent fits, suggesting the generalizability of the model in these contexts. Objective knowledge and subjective knowledge have a positive and direct impact on perceived knowledge insufficiency. The impact of benefit and risk perceptions on worry is the opposite, with risk perceptions having a greater direct effect on worry. However, compared with risk perceptions, the direct effect that benefit perceptions have on perceived knowledge insufficiency is stronger. Additionally, perceived knowledge insufficiency partially or completely mediates the relationships between all antecedents, except perceived seeking control, and information‐seeking intention. This study suggests that risk managers carefully consider how to establish powerful communication tactics to shape these antecedents when introducing a "not in my backyard" project to the local community.